Interviews with Daniel Pipes
How Much Should Israel Fear ISIS?
|
|
|
|
Share:  
|
  Be the first of
your friends to like this.
I was interviewed by the
English-language service of the Israel Broadcast Authority (IBA).
Click here to
watch the video.
Multimedia for this item
Click Image to View Video
|
Transcript
IBA: Dr. Daniel Pipes is the founder and president of the
Middle East Forum and a prolific commentator on the Middle East. He joins
me now to discuss the threats on Israel's borders. Dr. Pipes, welcome.
Pipes: Thank you.
IBA: What should Israel be more concerned by: ISIS in the
north or ISIS in the south?
Pipes: The northern situation is certainly more dangerous
to Israel than the southern, in that Egypt is a stable government at this
point, and it's just a matter of some hundreds of marauding ISIS
affiliates. Whereas in the north, there is of course no stability
whatsoever, and the dangers are much greater.
IBA: Yes, but in the immediate term, we have ISIS pressed
up against the Egyptian border, and in the north they're kept away by
slightly less unsavory territory.
Pipes: Well, actually, an ISIS-affiliated group, the
Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade, is right at the border with Israel, and it's
quite striking that neither has this ISIS affiliate attacked Israel nor
have Israeli forces attacked it. Which I think points to the fact that
the Israelis perceive ISIS as less of a threat than the Iranian-backed
Syrian regime and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah organization—which is an
assessment I would agree with.
IBA: That might explain why we haven't hit back at ISIS,
but it doesn't explain why ISIS hasn't hit Israel, and that's a
flourishing conspiracy theory in the street to explain why we haven't
experienced a Brussels or a Paris. Why is that?
"Israelis perceive ISIS as less of a threat than the
Iranian-backed Syrian regime and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah
organization."
|
Pipes: Well, there have been efforts, I think, by ISIS, to
penetrate Israel and to have explosions and attacks within Israel. But
for this ISIS affiliate on the border of Israel to attack Israel would be
suicidal. Its firepower is far less than that of the IDF. And while ISIS
overall has shown very little strategic vision and is willing to attack
everyone and anyone, I think even ISIS understands that this would not be
a wise undertaking.
IBA: In terms of the suicide explosion, God forbid, in one
of Israel's cities, along the lines of Paris or Brussels—
Pipes: That would certainly be advantageous to ISIS, but
for this ISIS affiliate on the border to attack Israel directly in a
military operation would be suicidal and would not attain its goal.
IBA: They're afraid of an Israeli response.
Pipes: Right. But I think they do want to attack within
Israel, as they want to attack almost everywhere.
IBA: So is the reason they haven't succeeded the strong
efforts of the Israeli security forces, or is this for want of trying?
The Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade (Liwa Shuhada' al-Yarmouk) operates
close to Israeli forces in the Golan Heights.
|
Pipes: It's both. I mean, the Israeli security has been
effective and they have not been focused on Israel. Israel is an ultimate
goal of a group like ISIS, but far more immediate are the Muslim
countries. In particular, Saudi Arabia, but also Iraq, Syria, Turkey,
Jordan—
IBA: Right, on the question of Saudi Arabia—what was ISIS
thinking, attacking a major Muslim shrine?
Pipes: As I said, ISIS is not very strategic. ISIS does
not think how to gain friends and influence people. ISIS just goes and
attacks. It's doing the same in Turkey. It had a pretty good working
relationship with the Turkish government and now it's killed hundreds of
people in multiple violent attacks. In Jordan, it had pretty good
standing in Jordan, and then it burned alive a Jordanian pilot.
IBA: But there was definitely a strategic switch, where it
went from focusing on building a caliphate to attacking the far enemy,
which had always been al Qaeda's strategy. Why was that? What's it hoping
to gain from attacking European cities?
Pipes: It's hoping to win the support of Muslims, and
indeed that does happen. At the same time, I would argue that while there
are some Muslims, who you can number in the thousands, who say ISIS
represents the caliphate, the vision of Islam that they endorse—I would
say far greater numbers of Muslims are repulsed by it, are scared of it.
So, again and again, ISIS is not strategic, ISIS is just going directly
at the goal and ignoring the many enemies—look at the enemies it has
throughout the region, with the slight exception of the Turkish
government, the Qatari government, the Saudi government, but even there,
they've turned against it.
IBA: Looking at other regional actors then, today marking
ten years since the onset of the Second Lebanon War, and we've seen an
unprecedented period of calm on the northern front. Under what
circumstances might Hezbollah decide that it's time for another round?
Pipes: I think Hezbollah will likely decide that when its
duties in Syria are over and it can retreat to Lebanon and can then focus
on Jerusalem as its goal as opposed to Damascus, but at this point that's
not an imminent prospect.
IBA: Okay. Dr. Pipes, thank you very much.
Pipes: Thank you.
|
Sign up for related (but
non-duplicating) e-mail services:
Middle East Forum (articles and event reports)
Campus Watch (articles, blog posts)
Islamist Watch (articles, blog posts)
Legal Project (articles, blog posts)
at http://www.danielpipes.org/list_subscribe.php
|
|
|
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment