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TOP STORIES
Donald Trump's election as president raises the
prospect the United States will pull out of the nuclear pact it
signed last year with Iran, alienating Washington from its allies and
potentially freeing Iran to act on its ambitions. Outgoing President
Barack Obama's administration touted the deal, a legacy foreign
policy achievement, as a way to suspend Tehran's suspected drive to
develop atomic weapons. In return Obama, a Democrat, agreed to a
lifting of most sanctions. The deal, harshly opposed by Republicans
in Congress, was reached as a political commitment rather than a
treaty ratified by lawmakers, making it vulnerable to a new U.S.
president, such as Trump, who might disagree with its terms. A
Republican, Trump ran for the White House opposing the deal but
contradictory statements made it unclear how he would act. In an
upset over Democrat Hillary Clinton, Trump won on Tuesday and will
succeed Obama on Jan. 20. A businessman-turned-politician who has
never held public office, Trump called the nuclear pact a
"disaster" and "the worst deal ever negotiated"
during his campaign and said it could lead to a "nuclear
holocaust." In a speech to the pro-Israel lobby group AIPAC in
March, Trump declared that his "Number-One priority" would
be to "dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran."
Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential
election is likely to empower hardliners in Iran who are pushing for
global isolation and discourage already wary foreign investors.
Republican Trump said during the election campaign that he would
abandon the nuclear deal reached between Tehran and six world powers
in 2015 that curbed Iran's nuclear programme in return for the
removal of international sanctions. His tough stance, in contrast to
President Barack Obama's offer of an olive branch to Tehran, could
serve the interests of hardliners in Iran. "If Trump adopts
hostile policies towards Iran, this will empower hardliners in
Iran," a senior Iranian official told Reuters on condition of
anonymity because of the political sensitivity of his comments. A
second senior Iranian official said: "Trump's victory will unite
Iran's hardliners and their supporters ... It means more political
pressure at home and an aggressive regional policy." ... Some
Western companies had been hoping Democrat Hillary Clinton would
defeat Trump in the election because of concern over the fate of the
nuclear deal. "Now with Trump's victory, even the European
companies will be reluctant to invest in Iran ... in the best-case
scenario they will adopt the policy of wait and see," said a
senior Economy Ministry official. The official said this would
"harm the credibility of Rouhani and his economic plans."
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said there was
"no possibility" of its nuclear deal with world powers
being overturned by US president-elect Donald Trump despite his
threat to rip it up. "Iran's understanding in the nuclear deal
was that the accord was not concluded with one country or government
but was approved by a resolution of the UN Security Council and there
is no possibility that it can be changed by a single
government," Rouhani told his cabinet, according to state
television... "The United States no longer has the capacity to
create Iranophobia and to create a consensus against Iran," he
said. "The constructive engagement policies of Iran towards the
world, and the fact that international sanctions have been lifted,
have placed the Iranian economy on a road where there is no
possibility of going backwards."
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Iran's foreign minister called Wednesday on US
president-elect Donald Trump to stick to international agreements
following his threats during the election campaign to tear up a
nuclear deal with Tehran. "Every US president has to understand
the realities of today's world. The most important thing is that the
future US president stick to agreements, to engagements
undertaken," Mohammad Javad Zarif said in Romania. Trump has
vowed to rip up last year's deal with world powers which lifted
international sanctions in return for curbs on Iran's nuclear
programme.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Iran is hoping to secure more overseas investment
after a consortium led by France's Total on Tuesday signed a $4.8bn
deal to develop part of the giant South Pars gasfield - the first
major energy agreement since the country's landmark nuclear accord.
"This is an icebreaker and we shall see more multibillion-dollar
oil and gas contracts with other companies including Russians and
Europeans soon," Amir-Hossein Zamaninia, Iran's deputy oil
minister for international affairs told the Financial Times.
"The next agreement might be in a few weeks," he added,
without giving further details... Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, Iran's oil
minister, said at the signing ceremony that he was "thankful to
Total for always being a pioneer and coming back to Iran at a
difficult time again". He added: "I hope this will allay
concerns of other companies so that they can enter Iran's market
quickly." Some Iranian companies, notably those affiliated to
the elite Revolutionary Guards, insist they are capable of developing
oil and gasfields with domestic money and expertise. But the Iranian
oil ministry, according to some officials, has been fighting hard to
push the guards' affiliated companies away from big projects
including South Pars. Mr Zanganeh lashed out at those who insist Iran
has enough money and expertise to develop the oil and gas sectors.
"Which money?" he asked. "There is no money."
The election of Donald Trump as the President of the
United States will not have an impact on the investments of French
oil and gas company Total in Iran, the firm's head of gas, renewables
and power said on Wednesday. Philippe Sauquet told journalist on the
sidelines of an energy summit in Paris that a heads of agreement
signed by Total earlier this week would not be impacted by the
Trump's election... "We have always said that we are interested
in returning to Iran on condition that the investments that are
proposed to us are sufficiently attractive and knowing that for us,
it was out of the question to do anything that would contravene
international rules," Sauquet told reporters. "The election
that took place in the United States does not change anything,"
Sauquet said.
Wintershall, Germany's largest oil and gas company is
looking to invest in Iran as the country opens up for foreign
investment following decades of sanctions over its controversial
nuclear enrichment programme. Mario Mehren, chairman of Wintershall
said they signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran in April
this year to look into certain assets but they are yet to bid for any
project. "Iran is very interesting for us. There is a lot of
onshore oil. We have not seen yet the commercial framework related to
petroleum contracts," said Mehren addressing a press conference
during Adipec
For all of Iran's attractions - breathtaking scenery
and numerous World Heritage sites, among other things - there are
plenty of downsides to vacationing in the Islamic republic. Alcohol
is forbidden. There is very little night life, at least in public.
All women, including visiting foreigners, are obliged to wear a head
scarf. Then there are Iran's politics: its strident anti-Western
stance; seemingly random arrests of people with dual citizenship;
hundreds of executions every year; and a rather loose definition of
human rights. None of that has changed, but suddenly Iran is a
booming destination for Europeans seeking an adventurous vacation,
particularly people from Spain, France and Scandinavia. Even tourism
from the United States is picking up, industry insiders say... The
number of Iranians offering beds and couches to crash on has
mushroomed in recent years, to more than 36,000 from virtually
nothing, the Couchsurfing website reports. No money is exchanged,
just experiences. "It's a great way of showing the real Iran to
foreigners," said Reza Memarsadeghi, 43, who studied philosophy
in Vancouver, British Columbia, and returned to Iran to take care of
his ailing father. Back in Tehran, he heard of Couchsurfing, and now,
six years later, he is known as the Godfather of Couchsurfing, having
hosted more than 1,000 foreigners in his parents' basement.
"I've stopped counting, to be honest." ... In August, Mr.
Memarsadeghi was arrested and charged with making "propaganda
against the Islamic republic" for hosting Western men and
unveiled Western women who were mingling. "Now my mother won't
let me have guests staying over," he said. He was released and
is awaiting trial.
Iran's crude oil exports are set to fall 7.5 percent
in November to a four-month low, a source with knowledge of its
preliminary tanker schedule said, as low seasonal demand in Europe
takes the edge off its post-sanctions export bonanza. Iran's oil
exports typically hit a low around October or November each year,
reflecting peak refinery maintenance seasons in Europe and in Asia.
Overall, OPEC's third-largest producer has been regaining market
share at a faster pace than analysts had projected since sanctions
were lifted in January, with its exports of crude and condensate
hitting a five-year high of at least 2.60 million barrels per day
(bpd) in September. Iran's sales of crude and ultra light oil
condensate are set to fall for a second straight month to 2.37
million bpd in November from 2.56 million bdp in October, according
to the source who is familiar with Iran's export situation. Compared
with a year ago, Tehran's November crude exports are set to rise 118
percent, according to the source.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
How
Will the US Election Affect Middle East Policy? | UANI Advisory Board
Member Dennis Ross in Majalla
The US election will be over soon. During every trip I have taken to
the Middle East this year, I was asked not just about the election
but also about whether the perceived hesitancy of the Obama
administration to affect the balance of power in the region is likely
to persist. Behind the question lurks the fear that American
weariness with involvement in the Middle East is not unique to
President Obama. That it, instead, reflects a deeper unease among the
American public and whether it is simply inclined to retrench and
avoid playing the continuing role of a superpower around the globe.
After all, as I would be told by my Middle Eastern colleagues,
candidates as different as Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump seemed to
be expressing what appeared to be isolationist themes. Indeed, the
Trump slogan of "America First" harkened back to the 1930s.
My answer would be that there was public wariness about involvement
in Middle Eastern conflicts. How, I would ask, could there not be?
America has been involved with asymmetric wars in the Middle East
since 9/11 and its aftermath. And, they have not come out well: the
costs have been high and the results have been poor. So there should
be questioning by the public-and America's leaders should not be
indifferent to those questions. On the contrary, they need to be able
to address them, and where our interests require involvement explain
why that is the case... The measure of the next administration is not
whether it withdraws from the region, but whether it is prepared to
compete in the area. Does it view Iranian adventurism in the region
as a threat? Does it see the Iranian use of Shia militias as just as
much of a threat to the state system in the Middle East as ISIS and
al Qaeda represent? Does it believe that altering the balance of
power against the interests of America's traditional partners in the
Middle East also threatens US interests? And, does it see the
emergence of vacuums in the region as a danger for America as well?
None of this means that the next administration must carry the sole
burden of dealing with threats in the broader Middle East-nor should
it. But it does mean that it has to be prepared to contain Iran and
seek to raise the costs to it of using Shia militias even as it
counters radical Sunni Islamists-whether ISIS or al Qaeda. Here again
there is an irony: the more willing the United States is to blunt
what the Iranians are doing throughout the region, the more certain
it will have regional partners not just for containing the Iranians
but also for countering radical Salafis as well. Part of the Obama
administration's problem in gaining more responsiveness from
different Arab leaderships has been the impression-fairly or not-that
it sees Iran as part of the solution to the regional challenges and
not part of the problem. When the US is not perceived to understand
the nature of the threats that most worry the leaders in the region,
those leaders are not so ready to be responsive to the American lead
or what the US is seeking. Moreover, they are more inclined to go
their own way.
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