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TOP STORIES
President Obama said Monday that the historic accord
to curb Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons - the most
important arms control agreement in decades - is working, and he
expressed hope that Donald Trump will keep it intact. "My
suspicion is that when the president-elect comes into office ... he
will look at the facts," Obama said at a news conference.
Abandoning the deal would remove obstructions that blocked Iran's
nuclear capabilities and could force the United States to sanction
European allies that continued to honor the accord. "When you
are not responsible for it, you can call it a terrible
deal," Obama said. "When you are responsible ... you are
more likely to look at the facts." ... Trump's advisors make
clear that revisiting the agreement is a priority for Trump even if
the plan ahead is still a work in progress. "'Ripping up' is
maybe a too strong a word. He's gonna take that agreement, it's been
done before in international context, and then review it," Walid
Phares, a Trump foreign policy advisor, told BBC radio.
"He will take the agreement, review it, send it to Congress,
demand from Iranians to restore a few issues or change a few issues.
And there will be a discussion. It could be a tense discussion."
Another advisor, R. James Woolsey Jr., who headed the CIA from 1993
to 1995 under President Clinton, was more hawkish. Speaking on CNN,
he called the deal "the worst single international agreement the
United States has ever signed." Woolsey said the deal was
neither implementable nor verifiable. "It is truly rotten,"
he said.
Eleven Middle East and North African countries accused
Iran of sponsoring "terrorism" and constantly interfering
in the internal affairs of Arab nations, sparking tension and
instability in the region. In a letter to the U.N. General Assembly
circulated Monday, the 11 countries cited Iran's support for Shiite
Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Shiite Hezbollah group in Lebanon
which has sent fighters to support the Syrian government. They also
accused Iran of supporting "terrorist groups and cells" in
Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and elsewhere. The Arab nations
reiterated a statement by Bahrain's foreign minister in September
that the only way forward is for Iran "to comprehensively change
its foreign policies and end hostilities." The letter, organized
by the United Arab Emirates, was signed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt,
Jordan, Sudan, Morocco, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Yemen. The
11 countries condemned Iran for sponsoring "terrorism" in the
region, particularly in Yemen where they said Tehran is supporting
the Houthis financially and militarily by training their fighters and
illegally sending them weapons and ammunition.
European oil companies might be thinking twice about
returning to Iran's oil fields with Donald Trump bound for the White
House, according to Helima Croft, head of commodities strategy at RBC
Capital Markets... Croft questioned whether European oil majors will
be willing to invest in projects to further boost Iranian oil
production in the wake of Trump's victory. Trump threatened during
the presidential campaign to rip up the deal Iran reached with
international negotiators last year to limit its nuclear program in
exchange for sanctions relief. With Trump in office, the European
energy firms lining up to develop Iran's massive oil and gas reserves
face a big risk: that his administration will exploit provisions in
the nuclear accord that would put back in place sanctions that
penalize companies that invest in Iran's oil and gas sector... Croft
said renewed sanctions would basically leave foreign companies with a
choice: Do business with Iran or get locked out of the U.S. financial
system. "I think it will give them pause before going back in
there, because the contract terms aren't great. It's not the easiest
place to do business. So you have to choose between Iran and the U.S.
- I still think you're picking the U.S.," she said.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
Judging from Donald Trump's campaign posturing, his
Big Three foreign policy views go something like this: Russia can be
wooed, Iran needs to be slammed, and China's economic and strategic
reach must be tamed. But what happens when they all start to overlap?
A series of initiatives and announcements Monday pointed to the
deepening interplay between Iran, China and Russia - and offered an
early lesson to the Trump administration on the slippery reality of
the world. One maxim Trump will quickly learn: Washington now has
very limited power to isolate and punish Iran. Trump may be able to
follow through on pledges to tear up the U.S. portion of last year's
nuclear deal, which seeks to rein in Tehran's nuclear program in
exchange for easing international sanctions. But that leaves
America's other five negotiating partners - including Russia and
China - sticking with the program and making deals with Iran.
The United Nations' nuclear watchdog may have delayed
releasing a report which revealed that Iran has again violated last
summer's landmark nuclear deal amid efforts by the Obama
administration to protect the deal, a top nuclear expert told THE
WEEKLY STANDARD. A confidential report from the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA), which said that Iran had stockpiled
nuclear-related material beyond what the deal allows, came to light
the day after the U.S. presidential election last week. The report
documented that Iran had amassed more than 130 metric tons of heavy
water, a material used in the production of weapons-grade plutonium,
breaching a limit set by the deal. David Albright, founder of the
Institute for Science and International Security, told TWS that the IAEA
likely pushed back the release of the report until after the election
due to political pressure from the Obama administration.
Seventy-six national security experts urged
President-elect Donald J. Trump on Monday to reverse his hostility to
the nuclear agreement signed with Iran last year and to use it as a
tool to ease other tensions with the country. A report signed by the
experts, including former officials from both major political
parties, argued that the nuclear agreement had reduced the threat of
war in the Middle East. Mr. Trump has called the nuclear agreement a
foreign-policy disaster. He vowed during his campaign to renegotiate
or renounce the deal, one of President Obama's signature
achievements. The report stated, "The deal proved that diplomacy
with Iran can bear fruit despite skepticism about Iranian sincerity,
the inclination of Iran's supreme leader to abide by the deal, or the
ability of Iranian hard-liners to sabotage diplomacy." ... The
report was produced by the National Iranian American Council, a
Washington group that has advocated improved relations with Iran...
NUCLEAR & BALLISTIC MISSILE
PROGRAM
Iran's missile programme is "non-negotiable"
and tests will continue, foreign ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi
said on Tuesday, following criticism from European Union diplomats.
"Iran's defence capabilities cannot be compromised and are under
no circumstance negotiable," he told state television IRIB.
"Missile tests are conducted within the framework of Iran's
defence policies." A meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels
on Monday urged Tehran to refrain from ballistic missile testing.
Iran's military has carried out a number of missile tests in recent
months, which the United States and European governments have said
are a breach of its commitments under last year's nuclear deal.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani blasted the
US, Israel and certain regional states for creating and assisting the
terrorist groups in the region. "Today, there is precise
intelligence showing that the US and the Zionist regime are assisting
with the creation and supporting the terrorist stream in the region,
and the governments of certain regional states are also suffering
this plague," Larijani said in Tehran on Monday, addressing a
ceremony to commemorate the martyrdom of Mohsen Khazaei, reporter of
the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, who was killed in Aleppo
on Saturday. The Iranian speaker said that turmoil and spread of
terrorism in the region creates the best conditions for the Zionist
regime to survive.
CONGRESSIONAL ACTION
President Barack Obama's administration said on Monday
he would veto legislation seeking to block financial transactions
related to the export of passenger aircraft to Iran, saying it would
undermine the nuclear deal implemented early this year. The
legislation in the House of Representatives is the latest Republican-led
effort to stop the sale of aircraft to Iran by Airbus and Boeing Co,
allowed under the nuclear deal. The White House said U.S. partners
would view the bill, if implemented, as a violation of the nuclear
agreement.
BUSINESS RISK
Canadian companies operating in Iran, or considering
sales after an easing of sanctions against Tehran this year, are
being warned by trade experts that a Donald Trump presidency could
kill their ability to do business there. This is one of many areas
where the Republican president-elect's policies will have economic
repercussions for Canada. Airplane maker Bombardier Inc., for
instance, is chasing deals in Iran, a country on the hunt for
hundreds of commercial aircraft after Tehran agreed to give up parts
of its nuclear program in exchange for a scaling back of sanctions...
"Canadian businesses with U.S. parent companies or subsidiaries,
or which use U.S.-made inputs should be very cautious when pursuing
opportunities in Iran," said Cyndee Todgham Cherniak, a
Toronto-based international trade lawyer. "What may be
permissible under Canadian law may become impermissible under U.S.
law in 2017."
SANCTIONS ENFORCEMENT
China's third-largest lender tried to obscure the
trail of dollar transactions by Russian, Chinese and Middle Eastern
clients and attempted to silence a compliance officer who raised
alarms about it, according to New York's banking regulator.
State-controlled Agricultural Bank of China was ordered to pay a $215
million penalty and install an independent monitor for 18 months to
oversee the establishment of compliance controls, New York State's
Department of Financial Services said in a consent order Friday...
Some invoices appeared to be counterfeited or falsified, the
compliance staff said, including dollar transactions apparently
involving an Iranian party under U.S. sanctions. Some of these
transactions were sent through the global interbank-messaging system,
the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication,
using coded messages that masked client identities to avoid DFS
screening, according to the consent order.
A company in Washtenaw County has been placed on
probation for five years and ordered to pay $200,000 for selling
industrial equipment to a company in Iran. Mectron's attorney had
warned the company that it was illegal to sell equipment to Iran
without an export license. Mectron didn't get one before selling a
parts inspection machine in 2010 for $47,500. The Saline-based
company pleaded guilty in February and was sentenced Wednesday.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Tehran is in talks with Russian companies on petroleum
swap deals, Iran's deputy oil minister for international affairs
Amir-Hossein Zamaninia said Thursday. "Yes, we are," he
said when asked whether the country is in talks with the Russian Federation
on swap deals. According to deputy minister, initially the deals may
total 150,000 barrels per day to be increased to 500,000 barrels per
day "within a short period of time." ... Tehran is planning
to make heads of agreements with Russian companies Lukoil, Gazprom,
Gazprom Neft, Zarubezhneft and Tatneft in the second half of
December, Zamaninia pointed out. "Lukoil, Gazprom, Rosneft,
Gazprom Neft, Zarubezhneft and Tatneft - all have made preliminary
agreements with Iranian companies. All these (Russian) companies need
to do their homework and then get the ball rolling on sealing the
agreements in the second half of December. Preliminary discussion are
already over," he said. Moscow and Tehran are in talks over a
potential exclusive presentation of Iran's oil and gas contracts for
Russian companies, Russia's Deputy Energy Minister Kirill Molodtsov
said Thursday, adding that the two specialized ministers have reached
this agreement and currently the place and date are being
discussed... The new type of oil contract will be presented to
Russian companies on November 17 in Tehran.
A Hong Kong business delegation visited the Iranian
capital Tehran this week to explore new business opportunities
arising from the Belt and Road Initiative. It is the city's first
official delegation since the United Nations lifted sanctions against
Iran in January this year. Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong
Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) John Tsang led more than 30
business leaders from finance, information and communications
technology, infrastructure and real estate services and logistics
sectors to Iran from 7 to 10 November. The delegation was jointly
organised by the by the HKSAR Government and the Hong Kong Trade
Development Council (HKTDC). Among them were Vice Chairman and Chief
Executive of Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited Yue Yi, Executive
Director of China State Construction International Holdings Limited
Danny Hung, Chairman of Airport Authority Hong Kong Jack So and the
President of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Professor Tony Chan.
South African Sasol Company's investment in Iran's
petrochemical sector is under question, Amirhossein Bahraini,
managing director of Iran's Arya Sasol Polymer Company, said. The
company may withdraw from taking part in Iran's petrochemical
projects due to high price of ethane feedstock for petrochemical
units, Bahraini said, Mehr news agency reported Nov. 6. The National
Iranian Petrochemical Company and Sasol jointly launched the Arya
Sasol Polymer Company in southern Iran, he said, adding that Sasol
divested its interest in the joint company under the sanctions in
2013 and henceforth, has no invested or operating interest in Iran.
However, following the removal of the international sanctions the
South African firm was seeking to make investment in Iran's
petrochemical and polymer projects, Bahraini said.
MILITARY MATTERS
U.S. officials are expressing concern about a budding
arms pact between Iran and Russia estimated to be worth more than $10
billion, according to State Department officials who spoke to the Washington
Free Beacon and expressed alarm over the "increased Iranian
military capability." Iran's negotiations with Russia for new
weapons and military hardware come after senior officials in Tehran
dismissed the recent election of Donald Trump and warned his incoming
administration against taking a firmer stance against the Islamic
Republic's continued military buildup. Iran is angling to purchase
T-90 tanks, artillery systems, and aircraft from Moscow that are
expected to keep the Islamic Republic fully armed over the next
several years, according to reports in Iran's state-controlled
media... "We have seen those reports and call on both sides to
ensure they respect their commitments under the [nuclear deal] and
UNSCR 2231, which include restrictions on providing certain military
systems to Iran," a State Department official told the Free
Beacon. "We remain concerned with any increased Iranian military
capability, and we've expressed those concerns."
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Iran shut schools and apologised to tourists Monday as
its cities were hit by choking levels of air pollution. A blanket of
brown-white smog descended on the capital Tehran on Sunday, blocking
views of the mountains that line its northern edge and forcing many
of its 14 million residents to retreat indoors or don face masks in
the street. The pollution in Tehran hit 156 on the Air Quality Index
of deadly airborne particles, over the 150 considered
"unhealthy" for the general public. In tourist hotspot
Isfahan the level hit 167. Officials apologised to foreign visitors
for the bleak conditions. "We hope our people's hospitality
wipes the grey image of Tehran's beautiful attractions from their
minds," the capital's tourism boss Rajab Ali Khosroabadi told
the ISNA news agency. Kindergartens and primary schools in Tehran
were ordered to stay closed Monday and Tuesday, and traffic
restrictions were tightened.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
One of America's first naval heroes, Commodore Stephen
Decatur, was challenged by an Algerian admiral in 1815. Decatur's
reply is now enshrined in international law for ships sailing the
seven seas: "I go where I please." This ethos came to
define the mission of the U.S. Navy - ensuring the high seas are free
and safe for all legitimate shipping. But just as the Barbary pirates
of yore impeded safe passage, U.S. vessels today are challenged by
new aggressors, Iran foremost. Iranian forces or their proxies have
forcibly tried to prevent the U.S. Navy from sailing freely in
international waters in the Persian Gulf and, more recently, in the
Red Sea. The U.S. response to this disturbing pattern of sea-borne
belligerence, until recently, has been muted. This only invites ever
more dangerous behavior from Iran. It is time for the United States
to revive Decatur's intent and allow the Navy to assert our right to
go "where we please" within the boundaries of international
laws and norms of behavior.
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