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Iran
and Turkey Jostling for Power in Iraq
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Iran
and Turkey are engaged in a contest for supremacy in northern Iraq,
even as the fight against Islamic State continues.
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The most intriguing aspect of the Mosul campaign, however, has been
the differing and often opposing agendas of the various components of the
attacking force. These, with surprising rapidity, have now have come to
the fore.
Just two weeks into the offensive, two of its most prominent backers –
the Baghdad government of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and the Turkish
government – are engaged in a war of words.
How has this crisis emerged, and what may be the direction of events
in the next phase?
The Shi'a militiamen of the Popular Mobilization Units, or Hashd
al-Sha'abi, are currently heading toward the town of Tal Afar, population
100,000, located 60 kilometers west of Mosul. Their mission will be to
capture the town and prevent Islamic State fighters from escaping
westward toward the Syrian border, on the highway adjoining it.
The PMU consists of around 40 Shi'a militias. The most significant of
these are directly supported by the government of Iran. The three most
important militias in the PMU are the Badr Organization, the Ktaeb
Hezbollah and the Asaib Ahl al-Haq group. All three are pro-Iranian and
the recipients of direct training and assistance from Tehran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The militias make little secret of their nature and goals. A Badr
officer interviewed by this author in Baghdad in the summer of 2015
declared that his hope for the PMU is that its role in a future Iraq
would be similar to that played by the IRGC in Iran.
PMU
leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis (right) with Iranian Quds Force commander
Qassem Soleimani.
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The two most powerful figures in the PMU, Hadi al-Ameri of Badr and
Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis of Ktaeb Hezbollah, are both veteran Shi'a
Islamists and close associates of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who commands the
expeditionary Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards.
The Shi'a militias of the PMU are thus a classic Iranian production –
combining political, military and paramilitary/ intimidatory roles for
the maximization of power and Iranian influence.
They are also deeply hooked into the centers of power in Iraq. Badr,
in its political guise, is a member of Abadi's government. The militia
also holds the governorship of one of Iraq's provinces, Diyala, where it
dominates the official security forces.
In the Mosul offensive, however, the Iranian project for wielding
power via proxy is colliding with a rival project of a similar nature,
maintained by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey.
The Turks established a military base at Bashiqa, east of Mosul, in
December 2015. There, Turkish officers engaged in the training of a Sunni
militia. The militia was organized by Osama al-Nujaifi, a former
parliament speaker close to the Turks, and by his brother Atheel, former
governor of Nineveh province.
Osama
al-Nujaifi (right), his brother Atheel (center), and Defense Minister
Khalid Al-Obaidi at the front last year.
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The Nujaifis have come out in favor of an autonomous Nineveh province,
once Islamic State has been defeated. Clearly, the intention is to build
Turkish and Sunni influence in northern Iraq.
Abadi, while opposing the Turkish effort, has tried to take a moderate
approach. His guarantee that the Shi'a militias would play no role in the
fight against Islamic State in Mosul formed a part of this.
But for the militias themselves and those that back them, the Turkish
gambit must be opposed. The Iranians and their allies are already engaged
against Turkish-supported militias in northern Syria. For them, the
battle in Iraq is part of the same fight.
Tal Afar, meanwhile, is of particular importance, not only because of
its location but also because of its history and demography. An old
Ottoman garrison town, its majority Turkmen population is a remnant of
the days when Iraq was part of an empire ruled from Constantinople.
The population is divided into Shi'a and Sunni Turkmen. Its Sunnis
were pro-Saddam, and furnished the old regime with many recruits. Many
later also joined Islamic State. Much of the Shi'a population was driven
from the town when Islamic State took it in 2014. The Shi'a militias may
now be seeking revenge.
Iraqi
Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi warned recently that Turkish military
intervention in Iraq will lead to "dismantling of Turkey."
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Turkey has now deployed tanks and artillery in the Silopi area, close
to the border with Iraq. Erdogan warned last week that Turkish forces
would intervene if abuses were committed by the Shi'a militias against
the Sunni residents of Tal Afar.
The Iraqi government is taking the threat seriously. Abadi said this
week that while Iraq does "not want war with Turkey, and we do not
want a confrontation with Turkey," if Erdogan's forces invade, this
will lead to the "dismantling of Turkey."
So how will this game of brinkmanship play out? At this stage
Erdogan's words seem designed more to exert pressure than to signal an
imminent intervention. As long as the militias avoid a sectarian
bloodbath in Tal Afar, the Turkish tanks will probably remain on the
border but not cross it.
But the ongoing tensions between Ankara and Baghdad/Tehran show that
even as the fight for Mosul city has not yet reached its expected height,
the various players are already competing for supremacy in the aftermath.
As of now, the Iranians have the overall better hand. Their experience
in the use of proxy forces is longer than that of the Turks. They are
allied with the central government in Baghdad. The US and the West
perceive little danger in their activities in the post-nuclear-deal era.
The Turks, however, have demonstrated in northern Syria earlier this
year a willingness to employ their own forces in bold but risky gambits
on the fragmented territory of their neighbors. Iranian- Turkish and
Shi'a-Sunni rivalry are at the heart of the struggle for power in Nineveh
province and further afield.
The meaning of all this is that northern Iraq has ceased to function
as a sovereign territory. Other forces – Turkish soldiers, Iranian
Revolutionary Guards, Kurdish guerrillas, Shi'a militiamen, Sunni
jihadists – are now engaged in a battle over its territory and resources.
Jonathan Spyer, a fellow at the
Middle East Forum, is director of the Rubin Center for Research in
International Affairs and author of The Transforming Fire: The Rise of the
Israel-Islamist Conflict (Continuum, 2011).
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