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TOP STORIES
Denmark's security forces say they have arrested a man
over an alleged plot by the Iranian intelligence service to
assassinate an Iranian-Arab opposition figure on Danish soil.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday in a
presidential memorandum that he had determined there was sufficient
supply of petroleum and petroleum products from nations other than
Iran to permit a reduction in purchases from that country.
China's crude oil imports from Iran in September fell
sharply from the same month last year in a sign that China has curbed
its purchases from the Islamic republic as Washington prepares to
re-impose sanctions on Tehran's oil sector.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Trying to stop Iran's nuclear proliferation is a task
better suited to allied intelligence services than customs
authorities and procurement channels.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
India and South Korea agreed with the U.S. on the
outline of deals that would allow them to keep importing some Iranian
oil, according to Asian officials with knowledge of the matter. No
final decision has been made and an announcement is unlikely before U.S.
sanctions on Iran are reimposed Nov. 5, the officials said, asking
not to be identified because the information is confidential.
Japan has not yet been granted a waiver from
Washington's plan to reimpose sanctions to cut Iran out of
international markets, even after several rounds of talks with U.S.
officials, the Asian nation's top government spokesman said on
Thursday.
U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said on
Wednesday the Trump administration wants sanctions on Iran's crude
exports to strain Tehran, but does not want to harm countries that
depend on the oil.
[L]ess than a week before the crucial deadline this
Monday, the campaign against Iran is facing severe challenges.
When Americans go to the polls next week, North Korean
leader Kim Jong Un may be glued to the results - along with
China's Xi Jinping, Iran's Hassan Rouhani and an array of other
foreign leaders around the world. America's allies and enemies alike
will be trying to analyze the 2018 midterms for hints of President
Donald Trump's political future and the staying power of his foreign
policies - whether it's sanctions against Iran, nuclear talks with North
Korea or a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.
OPEC has boosted oil production in October to the
highest since 2016, a Reuters survey found, as higher output led by
the United Arab Emirates and Libya more than offset a cut in Iranian
shipments due to U.S. sanctions.
Danish Foreign Minister Anders Samuelsen says Denmark
will head efforts in the EU to discuss sanctions against Iran, after
Copenhagen uncovered a plot directed from Tehran against dissidents.
"We are not just a handful of days from all of the
sanctions that the previous administration had relieved against Iran,
snapping back, coming back into effect and it's having a real impact
on the Iranian leadership."
[F]or the Trump administration, a new and unexpected
ally has emerged: European business... From the perspective of a
corporate CEO, the decision is clear. On the question of doing
business in the U.S. or Iran, they choose the American market. In
fact, these same CEOs have reportedly made it clear to Ambassador
Grenell that not only will they comply with sanctions, but in fact
they are not supportive of the EU government's talk of evading said
sanctions.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
A colossal manhunt, an extradition, and an Arab
separatist movement.
Denmark is leading a push for new E.U. sanctions against
Iran, after its intelligence agencies blamed Tehran for a foiled plot
to assassinate an Iranian dissident on Danish soil.
The Mossad provided Denmark with information that
thwarted an Iranian plot to assassinate an Iranian separatist leader
in the Scandinavian country, it was revealed on Wednesday.
Uncertainty is
clouding Iran-EU ties after Danish officials leveled accusations that
an Iranian intelligence organization was behind an attempted
assassination in Denmark. Iran's diplomatic apparatus has been busy
reacting to statements from the Danish Security and Intelligence
Service and the country's Foreign Ministry.
Western Europe just got a significant - and very timely
- reminder of who the Middle East bad guys really are.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
The Trump administration has repeatedly condemned Iran
for its domestic repression, but it can do much more. To hold the
Islamic Republic accountable and express solidarity with Iranians
seeking reform, Washington should continue sanctioning the regime's
most egregious human rights violators.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
As both local and regional experts continue to sound
alarm bells over Lebanon's dire economic state and the need to form a
new Cabinet, Lebanese lawmakers have returned to wrangling over the
allocation of ministries and the size of their individual shares.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
After great success in Lebanon, Iran has brought its
"Hezbollah model" to Iraq and Syria.
A new government
could conceivably represent a headache for the Lebanese, at least if
the prime minister-designate Saad Hariri chooses to appoint a
Hezbollah figure to be health minister, as seems likely. Legislation
passed by the US Congress and signed by President Donald Trump last
week explains why.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has warned in a
report to the Security Council that the militia group Hezbollah could
drag Lebanon into war and called for its disarmament.
Lebanese President Michel Aoun said on Wednesday the
differences blocking a deal over a new national unity government were
"not easy" and signaled he was at odds with his ally
Hezbollah over the last outstanding issue.
The next expected conflict between Israel and Hezbollah
will lead to unprecedented casualties on both sides and a new
escalated round of lawfare against the IDF's conduct, says a new
report by top ex-US military officials.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
The Saudi-led coalition has massed thousands of troops
near Yemen's main port city of Hodeidah, local military sources said
on Wednesday, in a move to pressure Iranian-aligned Houthi insurgents
to return to U.N.-sponsored peace talks. The United States and
Britain have called for an end to the 3-1/2-year war that has driven
impoverished Yemen to the verge of famine, raising pressure on Saudi
Arabia as it faces a global outcry over the murder of prominent Saudi
journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct.
2.
As Israel and Iran clash in Syria, Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is courting Gulf Arab states
at a time when broader policies align against their common rival
Tehran.
MISCELLANEOUS
The U.S. campaign against the Soviet Union during the
latter years of the Cold War holds some important lessons for
Washington's current policy of "maximum pressure" against
the Islamic Republic of Iran.
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