Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Eye on Iran: Treasury Official Doubts EU Can Sidestep U.S. Sanctions On Iran



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The U.S. Treasury Department's top sanctions official brushed aside European threats to build a workaround to evade President Donald Trump's penalties on Iran's oil and banking sectors. Sigal Mandelker, Treasury's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, kicked off a swing through European capitals to drum up support for the Iran sanctions by casting doubt on European efforts to develop a "special purpose vehicle," or SPV, to keep funds flowing to Iran without using the U.S. financial system.


As the United States reinstated economic sanctions on Iran on Monday, American banks were gearing up for retaliatory Iranian cyberattacks. Bank executives believe Iranian hackers could attempt to disrupt financial services, perhaps as they did between 2011 and 2013 -- with denial-of-service attacks that interrupted bank websites and other internet financial services.


There is no indication that Iranian cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog policing its deal with major powers has changed since the latest round of reimposed U.S. sanctions against Tehran, a senior diplomat said on Monday.  A report by the International Atomic Energy Agency obtained by Reuters earlier on Monday showed Tehran had stayed within the main limits imposed by the deal on Iranian atomic activities and materials, though several items were verified before the latest U.S. sanctions went into force on Nov. 5.

NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM


Iran has continued to implement the main nuclear restrictions set by its 2015 deal with major powers even as the United States reimposed sanctions against Tehran, a U.N. atomic watchdog report showed on Monday. Iran has kept its stock of low-enriched uranium as well as the level to which it refines uranium within the limits set by the landmark deal, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency report to IAEA member states, obtained by Reuters.


Iran continued abiding by nuclear limits in its landmark accord with world powers even after U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned the agreement, according to international monitors. In its first report since the U.S. re-imposed oil and banking sanctions on Nov. 5, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran is still allowing intrusive inspections while keeping its nuclear capacity and material below thresholds allowed under the July 2015 deal, according to a 5-page restricted report published Monday and seen by Bloomberg News.


Europe has intensified its efforts to preserve the Iranian nuclear accord and maintain economic relations with the Islamic Republic in the face of growing pressure after the Trump administration renewed its sanctions regime. 

SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS  


The U.S. isn't concerned by Europe's plans for a special purpose vehicle to help enable trade with Iran after America reinstated sanctions, a U.S. official said on Monday. The Trump Administration withdrew in May from an international agreement to ease sanctions against Iran in return for curbs to Tehran's nuclear program, but Europe remains committed to the agreement.


The re-imposition of U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil exports is undoing every assumption the International Monetary Fund had about its economy. Instead of a growth spurt the IMF anticipated only months ago, it now projects a recession starting in 2018, a deepening fiscal shortfall and inflation more than tripling from last year, according to its regional economic outlook released on Tuesday.


For all the Trump administration's tough talk about Iran, on Nov. 5, it handed the country a little relief. In remarks at the White House, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo granted a special exemption to allow Turkey to continue purchasing oil from Iran despite the return of sanctions. Pompeo explained that the temporary pass, given to eight buyers in all, came in response to their pledges either to greatly reduce oil purchases or to end them altogether.


U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton vowed Tuesday to "squeeze" Iran "until the pips squeak," a week after a tough new round of sanctions came into force. President Donald Trump has dramatically increased pressure on Tehran, withdrawing from an international agreement aimed at ending its nuclear program and introducing several rounds of unilateral U.S. sanctions.


U.S. sanctions on Iran and the trade battle with China have become a boon for owners of tankers, with daily freight rates at their highest in two years as ships shift their routes to load up crude from other oil-producing countries. Crude exports from Iran, the world's fifth-biggest oil producer, have fallen about 50% since May when the U.S. pulled out of a landmark deal curbing Iran's nuclear program.


Iraq's oilfields in the disputed Kirkuk region have taken on new significance after the United States restored oil sanctions against neighboring Iran. Washington is pressuring Baghdad to resume exports that stopped last year. Iraq aims to raise its export capacity to 8.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the coming years from less than 5 million bpd currently, 1 million of which could come via Kirkuk.


Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Saturday that U.S. sanctions announced last week have had no effect on Iran's economy because Washington had already practically reimposed them earlier. The restoration of sanctions is part of a wider effort by U.S. President Donald Trump to force Iran to curb its nuclear and missile programs as well as its support for proxy forces in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and other parts of the Middle East.


Saudi Arabia has announced a major cut in oil production to rebalance global markets and prop up plunging oil prices, citing U.S. sanctions waivers that are enabling Iran to keep exporting oil to most of its top customers. 


Iran's armed forces will protect Iranian oil tankers against any threats, an Iranian military official said on Monday, after the United States said the ships were a "floating liability" and warned ports operators not to allow them to dock. "Iran's armed forces ... are prepared today as in the past to protect our fleet of oil tankers against any threats so that it can continue to use marine waterways," said Rear-Admiral Mahmoud Mousavi, a deputy commander of the regular armed forces, the semi-official news agency ISNA reported.


Iran sold 700,000 barrels of crude oil to private companies for export on Sunday in a second round of sales aimed at countering U.S. sanctions on the country's exports, oil ministry news website SHANA Reported. Three unnamed companies paid $64.97 per barrel for two crude shipments of 245,000 barrels each and one shipment of 210,000 barrels, which were traded on Iran's energy bourse, SHANA reported.

Iranian Oil Tankers Sanctioned By US Go 'Completely Dark' For A Week | Voice Of America

One of the few companies monitoring global oil shipments says Iranian state-owned tankers have kept their transponders off for more than a week, in an apparent attempt to evade U.S. sanctions. Speaking to VOA Persian from Stockholm, Sweden, Friday, TankerTrackers.com co-founder Samir Madani said National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) vessels have remained "completely dark" since shutting off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders in late October.


Iraq can continue to import natural gas and energy supplies from Iran for a period of 45 days, the United States has said, several days after reimposing sanctions on Tehran's oil sector. "The United States has given Iraq a temporary relief from the sanctions for 45 days to continue purchasing natural gas and electricity from Iran," the US Embassy in Iraq said in a video published on its official Facebook page on Thursday.

The US Treasury Department last week imposed more sanctions on Iran to limit Tehran's ability to finance hostile activities in the region and fund terrorism. The sanctions now apply to more than 700 Iranian individuals, entities, vessels and aircraft. Local, regional and international parties immediately reacted. Palestinians rushed to express their fear of the sanctions' impact. 


The Trump administration hopes the sweeping sanctions it has imposed on Iran's oil, shipping and banking industries will cripple its economy and force it to negotiate a new nuclear deal. But analysts point out that while such economic penalties can be persuasive, there are also ways to circumvent them.

Iraq's president on Sunday urged the United States to consider Baghdad's political and economic position as the countries negotiate on relief for Iraq from Washington's reimposed sanctions against Iran. The United States said on Friday Iraq can continue to import natural gas and energy supplies from Iran for a period of 45 days, so long as Iraq does not pay Iran for imports in U.S. dollars.


Israel views the renewed US sanctions imposed against Iran on Nov. 2 as nothing less than a historic event. Given the complex situation on its northern front, Israel is increasingly pinning its hopes on the sanctions to sever the lifeline of Iran's economy. Israel had apparently lost the battle against Iran's entrenchment in Syria through no fault of its own.


The next stage of the 30-year dispute between the US and Iran is beginning with the imposition last week of a new round of sanctions on the Islamic republic. One of many questions is how these will affect other countries in the region such as Qatar, which has no grievance with Washington and little sympathy for Tehran but has come in different ways to depend on both.

PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS

Gholamreza Shariati, the governor of Khuzestan province, denied that the individuals who were behind the Sept. 22 terrorist attack on a military parade in Ahvaz were executed. This is just the latest news to spill over from the attack in Khuzestan province that killed 25 people, including bystanders and veterans participating in the parade. Days after the attack, Iran's Intelligence Ministry announced they had arrested a "team" consisting of 22 individuals who they claimed were "responsible" for the attack. The ministry also said they had confiscated explosives as well as military and communications devices. 


An Iranian appeals court has upheld the 10-year prison sentence of a former Foreign Ministry official convicted of spying. The semi-official Fars news agency on Sunday quoted judiciary spokesman Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejehi as saying the court upheld Kamal Amirbeig's sentence and fined him $200,000. The report did not provide further information.


Iranian special courts set up in a drive against economic crime have sentenced two people to death, state media said on Sunday, as the country faces renewed U.S. sanctions and a public outcry against profiteering and corruption. The fast-track Islamic revolutionary courts were set up in August after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for "swift and just" legal action to confront an "economic war" by foreign enemies.


Iran allowed hundreds of local women to attend the Asian Champions League final in Tehran on Saturday, Iranian news agencies reported, in a possible step towards ending their decades-old exclusion from top soccer matches in the country. 

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS


Senior officials in the Trump administration are convinced the Iranian regime is vulnerable to collapse and that tough U.S. economic sanctions could hasten its demise, foreign diplomats and former U.S. officials told NBC News. President Donald Trump himself has questioned if the regime can last.


On foreign policy matters, President Donald Trump through this week's midterm elections has demonstrated a refreshing willingness to take on critical issues that his predecessors either avoided altogether or ineffectually kicked down the road. 


Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif has played down the impact of the results of US midterm elections on Tehran-Washington relations, adding that Iran should focus more on its own actions rather than expecting change to come from beyond its borders.   

MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS


The latest episode with the not-Kowsar fighter illustrates yet again the casual dishonesty of Tehran's propagandists. Iranian industry wanted to display the Kowsar-88 for an expo-which does appear to be a real airplane! However, the actual Kowsar-88 wasn't ready for display this August, so Tehran simply took an old, very well-known jet fighter and claimed it was a new one...


An Iranian court has sentenced a man working for the Foreign Ministry to 10 years in prison after convicting him of spying, judiciary spokesman Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei said on Sunday. However, Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi said the man had been arrested about three years ago and convicted a year later. His sentence had been reduced by an appeals court, according to the ministry's website.


A Pakistani official says Iranian border guards have killed two people trying to cross through an illegal route from the Panjgur district in Baluchistan. Sabir Baluch, a Baluchistan Levies Force official, says Sunday three others were wounded and taken to a Panjgur hospital.

IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS


Iran's official IRNA news agency says authorities have arrested the former minister of welfare and social security for financial fraud. The Sunday report says Parviz Kazemi was taken to Tehran's Evin prison two days ago. Kazemi resigned from his post in 2006 after nearly a year under former hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over political differences.

IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION


Today, international attention is heavily focused on restraining Iran's aspiration to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran, however, is using a large portion of its resources to increase its power by creating a continental corridor of terror, running from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea. Syria is a critical piece of this corridor. Iran and Syria recently signed a military cooperation agreement cementing Iran's active and expanding presence in Syria.

RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN

The leaders of Turkey, Russia, France and Germany met Oct. 27 in Istanbul for a summit to discuss the ongoing developments regarding the Syrian crisis. In a final statement issued after the summit, the four sides emphasized Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity as well as the necessity of continuing the fight against terrorism in the war-torn country. They also underlined the need for resolving the Syrian crisis through a "negotiated political process," while calling for providing conditions for the "safe and voluntary return of refugees to Syria."


Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri is set on Tuesday to settle his position from the so-called Sunni obstacle to Lebanon's cabinet formation process during a press conference at the Center House in Beirut. Hariri's scheduled press conference comes following comments delivered Saturday by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, who said that his party will continue to support the demands of independent Sunni MPs "for one year, two years and forever."


The leader of the Lebanese Shi'ite group Hezbollah insisted that one of its Sunni allies be given a portfolio in a new Lebanese cabinet, and indicated it would be ready to go back to square one in negotiating a government if necessary. 


The head of Lebanon's militant group Hezbollah said his group will not be compelled by threats or sanctions to give up its rocket a capability, urging his government in comments Saturday to contend with the diplomatic pressure it faces.


Lebanon's President Michel Aoun said he would spare no effort to resolve the current nodes hampering the formation of the new government. In parallel, "Hezbollah" Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah insisted on the representation of the Sunnis of March 8 bloc in the cabinet, few hours after meeting with caretaker Foreign Affairs Minister Gebran Bassil.

CHINA & IRAN


Standing side by side, top U.S. officials urged their Chinese counterparts on Friday to halt militarization of the disputed South China Sea, drawing a rebuke from the Chinese for sending U.S. warships close to islands claimed by Beijing.

GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
  

The Trump administration is reportedly contemplating designating Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia as a terrorist organization, igniting a debate over whether or not such a label will bring the protracted war to a faster end. 


Iran's destabilising policies in the Middle East must be countered, the UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Dr Anwar Gargash, said on Sunday. "The softer approach has failed," Dr Gargash said, at the opening session of Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate (ADSD), adding that Tehran has played a key role in emerging crises in the region.

IRAQ & IRAN


While Saudi Arabia courted Iraqi leaders behind closed doors at the weekend, its arch-foe Iran made a more public showing by turning out at the Baghdad International Fair, a shop window for business in Iraq.

TURKEY & IRAN


The Trump administration's sanctions on Iran are the latest irritant in relations between Turkey and the U.S. even as the two NATO allies move past their worst diplomatic crisis in decades. Although Turkey is one of eight countries to receive temporary waivers allowing them to continue buying Iranian crude exempt from new U.S. penalties, the Middle East's biggest economy still finds itself being squeezed.
  
CYBERWARFARE
  

Iranian hackers are believed to be responsible for a cyber security breach and extortion attempt on Australia's biggest defence exporter. Shipbuilder Austal earlier this month revealed an "unknown offender" had hacked into its computer systems, accessing staff email addresses and phone numbers as well as ship drawings and designs.

MISCELLANEOUS


The New York Times said Friday it is ending a series of journalist-guided luxury trips to Iran for its readers as global political tensions continue to escalate. "We're suspending the Iran tours because of difficulties related to the issuance of visas for our experts," said a NYT spokeswoman.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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