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Eye on Iran will be
suspended on Thursday, July 4, in observance of Independence Day and
resume on Friday, July 5.
TOP STORIES
Iran will "take the next step" on Sunday in
enriching uranium beyond the levels specified under its 2015 accord with
the United States and other global powers, President Hassan Rouhani said
Wednesday, according to state news outlets. Mr. Rouhani's pledge to
accelerate the country's uranium enrichment is the latest step in an
escalating confrontation with the United States over President Trump's
withdrawal from the nuclear pact and imposition of crippling
economic sanctions on Iran.
Iran's oil minister said a European mechanism to shield some
trade with his country from crippling U.S. sanctions won't be useful if
it doesn't allow for oil sales, as efforts to preserve the unraveling
nuclear deal face a looming deadline. "Without oil deal, it's very
clear, Instex will not work," Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh
said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Vienna on Tuesday, referring
to the trade conduit established by the U.K., France and Germany.
Britain, France and Germany will not for the moment trigger
a dispute resolution mechanism enshrined in the 2015 Iran nuclear accord
that could lead to the reimposition of United Nations sanctions, two
European diplomats said. Iran's announcement on Monday that it had
amassed more low-enriched uranium than permitted was confirmed by UN
nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which
monitors Iran's nuclear program under the deal.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Iran warned it will restore a mothballed reactor and step up
enrichment if European nations fail to offer it economic guarantees by a
July 7 deadline, escalating a crisis that threatens to collapse the 2015
nuclear accord and plunge the Gulf into renewed uncertainty. "If you
don't meet all your commitments according to the timetable and plans, the
Islamic Republic will restore the Arak reactor to its previous
condition," Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday in
remarks addressed to European signatories to the agreement, Mehr news
agency reported.
Iran's president Hassan Rouhani warned European nations
Wednesday that Tehran will "take the next step" in increasing
its uranium enrichment closer to weapons-grade levels this coming Sunday
if they do not offer a new deal by then, adding that they will increase
it to "any amount that we want". Speaking at a Cabinet meeting
in Tehran, Rouhani said: "In any amount that we want, any amount
that is required, we will take over 3.67.
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani issued a fresh ultimatum
Wednesday over its civilian-use nuclear program, saying the country would
on Sunday "take the next step" toward increasing its enrichment
of uranium unless European powers are able to find a way to offset the
impact of the Trump administration's sanctions on its economy. Earlier
this week, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations'
nuclear watchdog, confirmed Iran passed the limit on its stockpile of
low-enriched uranium by exceeding the 300kg (661 pounds) that was set in
a landmark 2015 nuclear deal made with world powers. President Donald
Trump has pulled the U.S. out of that agreement.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Wednesday warned that
Iran would increase its enrichment of uranium this weekend to whatever
level was needed beyond the cap set by the nuclear agreement. Iran
has repeatedly threatened to increase enrichment above the 3.67 percent
level allowed under the nuclear deal by July 7 unless it receives some
relief from U.S. sanctions. European countries are struggling to meet
Tehran's demands to keep the 2015 nuclear deal alive.
The ongoing diplomatic dispute between Washington and Tehran
hinges on a relatively small technical detail: Iran's enrichment of
uranium. On Monday, Iran announced it had breached a stockpile limit for
low-enriched uranium that had been allowed under the 2015 nuclear deal
between Iran and world powers. The International Atomic Energy Agency
subsequently confirmed Iran's stockpile had breached the 300-kilogram
limit.
European powers that have been trying to preserve the
nuclear deal with Iran are underlining their concern at Tehran exceeding
its stockpile limit for low-enriched uranium and their demand that it
comply in full with the accord. In a joint statement Tuesday, the foreign
ministers of Germany, France and Britain and the European Union's foreign
policy chief said that "we have been consistent and clear that our
commitment to the nuclear deal depends on full compliance by
Iran."
The diplomatic chiefs of the EU, France, Germany and Britain
said Tuesday they were "extremely concerned" and urged Iran to
reverse its decision to breach a limit on enriched uranium reserves under
a 2015 nuclear deal. "We urge Iran to reverse this step and to
refrain from further measures that undermine the nuclear deal," said
the joint statement signed by EU diplomatic chief Federica Mogherini and
the three countries' foreign ministers -- France's Jean-Yves Le Drian,
Germany's Heiko Maas and Britain's Jeremy Hunt.
Iran will increase its level of uranium enrichment after
July 7 to whatever levels it needs beyond the 3.67 percent cap set in the
landmark 2015 nuclear deal, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said on
Wednesday, according to the IRIB news agency. If the remaining
signatories of the nuclear deal with world powers do not fulfill their
promises, then the Arak nuclear reactor will return to its previous
activities after July 7, Rouhani said.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Iran has breached a cap on its enriched uranium stockpile
set in a 2015 deal with major powers and said it plans to further flout
the nuclear agreement, moves which ultimately could lead to the return of
all international sanctions on Tehran. Most U.N. sanctions were
removed in January 2016 when the deal was implemented. It is formally
called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and was agreed by
the United States, Iran, Britain, China, France, Germany and
Russia.
While opinions differ across Tehran's Grand Bazaar about the
ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran over its unraveling nuclear
deal, there's one thing those in the beating heart of Iran's capital city
agree on: American sanctions hurt the average person, not those in
charge. From an English-language teacher hoping for peace to an appliance
salesman who applauded President Donald Trump as a "successful
businessman," all said they suffered from the economic hardships
sparked by re-imposed and newly created American sanctions.
Saudi Arabia oil minister Khalid Al Falih on Tuesday called
on the international community to stand up to Iran's threats to
global energy security. The Saudi official told CNN that the kingdom has
ample spare capacity to offset Iranian barrels sidelined by US sanctions,
but the bigger risk comes from potential conflict in the
region. "I am concerned though about the security of oil supplies
from threats from state and non-state actors that we've seen," Al
Falih told CNN Business' John Defterios from the sidelines of the OPEC
meeting in Vienna.
MISSILE PROGRAM
Iranian video showed a flatbed military truck with a
rotating, rectangular launcher on the bed. The launcher appeared to
contain four missile canisters in two rows of two canisters each. Another
truck appeared to mount a rotating slab-shaped radar antenna. Iran has
announced a new anti-aircraft missile system. But is it new, or a
knockoff of a foreign weapon?
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran are
exposing potentially contrasting U.S. assessments of the threat Tehran
represents to Washington and its allies and interests in the region. The
narratives coming from top officials at the White House, the Pentagon and
the State Department portray an Iranian regime that is either weaker and
more desperate or more brazen and emboldened.
Iranian prosecutors are seeking the death penalty for
several individuals accused of spying for the United States, Iran's
spokesman for the judiciary announced Tuesday. Suspected U.S. spies
affiliated with the Iranian military are due to be sentenced to death
because of the "severity of their crimes," Iranian judiciary
spokesman Gholamhossein Esmaili said on state television. Two other
suspects who are also accused of spying for Washington but were not
affiliated with the military have received "long" jail
sentences, he added.
Amid escalating tensions with the United States and mounting
sanctions pressuring Iran's economy, a former senior commander of the
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) says Tehran should not rule out
holding talks with Washington. "We can't leave aside talks, but how
to talk is another issue," said ex-IRGC naval commander Hossein
Alaei. "We have to use the tools of power, meaning
negotiations," the former deputy defense minister was quoted as
saying by state news agency IRNA in Tehran on June 30.
A vast majority of voters said they supported President
Trump's decision to not launch a retaliatory strike against Iran last
month, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll. Seventy-eight percent
of voters surveyed said they believed Trump's decision to call off the
strike on Iran was the right move. The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll online
survey of 2,182 registered voters was conducted from June 26 to June 29.
Iran should have begun negotiations when the US pulled out
of the nuclear deal, said the former joint chief commander of Iran's
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in a speech on Sunday, Radio
Farda reported. "It would have been better to have negotiated
when [US President Donald] Trump announced he would leave JCPOA, and
tried to prevent it, or when Trump said he would negotiate without
preconditions," said Hossein Alaee, the former IRGC commander.
Tehran announced Monday it had breached the
uranium-enrichment limits of the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action, a week after shooting down a U.S. drone.
What prompted Iran's new aggressiveness, and what does it seek to
achieve? Its policy combines two components: noncompliance with aspects
of the JCPOA and so-called gray-zone activities, such as unconventional
attacks through proxies, sabotage of tankers and oil pipelines, and the
attack on the drone.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
The head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday
the enemy was worried about the prospect of war and was focused instead
on an economic conflict, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.
Tensions between the United States and Iran have increased since Trump
pulled Washington out of a nuclear deal last year and moved to bar all
international sales of Iranian oil.
The satellite-based radio navigation system GPS (Global
Positioning System) has been deliberately disrupted in Iran last week,
says the country's chief radio communications regulator Hossein Fallah
Josheghani. He told the official news agency IRNA that the disruptions
are illegal and orders have been issued to stop them. However, he did not
say which organization disrupted the GPS and who has ordered to stop the
disruption.
ECONOMIC WARFARE
The head of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards said on
Wednesday the enemy was worried about the prospect of war and was focused
instead on an economic conflict, according to the semi-official Fars news
agency. Tensions between the United States and Iran have increased
since Trump pulled Washington out of a nuclear deal last year and moved
to bar all international sales of Iranian oil. Last month the United
States came as close as it has ever come to bombing Iran, when President
Donald Trump aborted a retaliatory air strike minutes before
impact.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday
that he informed U.S. President Donald Trump in advance of what Israel
has described as a spy mission in Tehran last year to capture a secret
Iranian nuclear archive. Netanyahu said in April 2018 that Mossad
operatives had spirited thousands of hidden documents out of Tehran that
proved Iran had previously pursued a nuclear weapons program. Trump cited
the Israeli findings in his decision, a month later, to quit a 2015 deal
that had scaled down Iran's nuclear project.
The United States sanctioned on Tuesday a top Hezbollah
operative, updated a designation of an Iranian terrorist group and
designated Pakistan's Balochistan Liberation Army as a terrorist entity.
Husain Ali Hazzima is the chief of Hezbollah's intelligence unit, while
the Iranian group Jundallah, which was designated in 2010 as a terrorist
group, began using the new name Jaysh al-Adl and associated aliases in
2012, according to the U.S. State Department.
Israel is preparing for its possible military involvement in
any escalation in the Gulf confrontation between Iran and the United
States, the Israeli foreign minister said on Tuesday. The unravelling of
the 2015 Iran nuclear deal under U.S. diplomatic pressure, Iran's downing
of a U.S. drone and its alleged role in the holing of oil tankers in the
Gulf have driven up tensions and stirred war worries.
On January 28, 2015, a colleague and I were driving north in
Lebanon's Bekaa Valley to report on the latest developments involving the
Islamic State of Iraq and al-Shams (ISIS), which was then occupying a
desolate mountain range straddling the Lebanon-Syria border. Shortly
before midday, we received news that Hezbollah had just
launched an ambush against an Israeli military convoy on Lebanon's
southeast border. We immediately did a U-turn and began heading south.
GULF STATES, YEMEN & IRAN
Abha International Airport in Saudi Arabia's Asir province
has fully resumed operations following a drone attack by the
Iranian-backed Houthi militia based in Yemen. Arab coalition spokesman
Col. Turki Al-Maliki said the attack by the Houthis had injured nine
civilians - eight Saudis and one Indian citizen - all of whom are in
stable condition in a hospital. The US "strongly condemned" the
strike - the third such attack in less than three weeks.
CHINA & IRAN
The State Department is seriously considering using an
Obama-era loophole to allow China to import oil from Iran, violating the
Trump administration's pledge to bring Iranian oil exports to zero. Only
last week, the senior State Department official handling Iran said that
the U.S. would "sanction any imports of Iranian crude oil."
But according to three U.S. officials, the department's Iran czar, Brian
Hook, and his team of negotiators have discussed granting China a waiver
to a 2012 law intended to kneecap the Iranian oil industry.
IRAQ & IRAN
Iraq is planning to introduce a new financial mechanism that
will enable it to continue gas and electricity imports from Iran, Iraqi
sources said on July 2. The mechanism is said to be similar to Europe's
INSTEX, a system that would help Iran purchase food and medicine, the two
items not covered by U.S. sanctions on Tehran. A U.S. official has told
reporters that Washington is aware of the financial mechanism to be used
by Iran and Iraq. Iraqi officials say they have let Washington know about
their deals with Iran.
CYBERWARFARE
The Trump administration made the right call by launching a
cyberattack last month that disabled Iran's rocket and missile launching
systems, according to a majority of experts surveyed by The Cybersecurity
202. The administration launched that attack in retaliation for Iran
downing a U.S. surveillance drone and amid roiling tensions over the
Islamic State's nuclear program. By responding with a digital attack, the
Trump administration signaled it won't tolerate Iran's
aggressiveness but avoided escalating the conflict...
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