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NYT: "The popular revolts shaking the Arab world have begun to shift the balance of power in the region, bolstering Iran's position while weakening and unnerving its rival, Saudi Arabia, regional experts said. While it is far too soon to write the final chapter on the uprisings' impact, Iran has already benefited from the ouster or undermining of Arab leaders who were its strong adversaries and has begun to project its growing influence, the analysts said. This week Iran sent two warships through the Suez Canal for the first time since its revolution in 1979, and Egypt's new military leaders allowed them to pass. Saudi Arabia, an American ally and a Sunni nation that jousts with Shiite Iran for regional influence, has been shaken. King Abdullah on Wednesday signaled his concern by announcing a $10 billion increase in welfare spending to help young people marry, buy homes and open businesses, a gesture seen as trying to head off the kind of unrest that fueled protests around the region." http://t.uani.com/f3m9zF
Reuters: "The United States on Wednesday imposed sanctions against two Iranian government officials for what it said were human rights abuses against protesters following Iran's June 2009 disputed presidential election. The Treasury Department said in a statement that the Tehran prosecutor general, Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi, and the commander of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps' Basij Forces, Mohammed Reza Naqdi, were added to its Office of Foreign Assets Control blacklist. The action bans any U.S. persons from transactions with them and seeks to freeze any assets they may have under U.S. jurisdiction. It also subjects them to State Department visa sanctions. The sanctions were imposed under an executive order signed by President Barack Obama in September 2010 that targeted human rights abuses the United States said were committed by Iranian government officials." http://t.uani.com/epDnDj
CNN: "U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Wednesday accused Iran of a repressive crackdown on protesters and political opponents in the past 10 days, including the killing of peaceful demonstrators by security forces. 'Security forces have beaten, detained and -- in at least three cases -- killed peaceful protesters,' Clinton said in a statement. 'Off the streets, the regime's leaders have targeted human rights defenders and political activists, and authorities have recently rounded up ex-government officials and their families; former members of parliament; clerics and their children; student leaders and their professors; as well as journalists and bloggers.' Clinton's statement said the United States 'remains deeply concerned by the persecution of Iranian citizens at the hand of their government,' and praised 'the bravery of thousands of Iranians who once again took to the streets to exercise their fundamental rights' in the past 10 days." http://t.uani.com/dNyDCO
Nuclear Program & Sanctions
AFP: "Iran is gradually overcoming problems in its nuclear program, and could still detonate a nuclear device within a year if it put its mind to it, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said. But Barak said Iran was 'several years' from having the capability of putting a nuclear weapon on a medium-range missile. 'It's clear they had certain holdups along the way and they are moving slower than expected,' Barak said in an interview with CNN. 'But the painful fact is they keep moving forward. They are overcoming gradually the difficulties they faced. They don't get tired of it,' he said." http://t.uani.com/iesa02
AFP: "Iran on Wednesday blamed foreign 'influence' for Senegal's decision to cut diplomatic ties with the Islamic republic. Senegal cut ties with Iran over accusations that it delivered weapons to separatist rebels in its restive southern Casamance region where 16 soldiers have been killed since the end of December. But in a statement published by state media, the Iranian foreign ministry reacted to Senegal's decision with the 'utmost surprise'. 'The recent action by the Senegalese government has no reason and logical justification, and it seems that has been done under the influence of foreign factors,' said the statement on the website of state-run television." http://t.uani.com/gN5WdN
AP: "An eyewitness says two Iranian warships have arrived at Syria's Latakia seaport. The ships arrived Thursday afternoon. The witness spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. The two Iranian vessels sailed through the Suez Canal and into the Mediterranean this week, the first such trip in at least three decades. The voyage has raised tensions with archrival Israel and could further destabilize the Middle East. The region already is reeling from an unprecedented wave of anti-government rebellions." http://t.uani.com/fck85m
Domestic Politics
Bloomberg: "Iran has identified the people behind the death of two university students in an anti- government rally, Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi said. 'Necessary measures have been adopted,' and further details will be made public later, Moslehi said today, according to the state-run Fars news agency. Saneh Jaleh and another male student, Mohammad Mokhtari, were reported to have been killed by gunshots during anti- government demonstrations on Feb. 14. Opposition leaders Mehdi Karrubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi had called for the rally in solidarity with protesters who toppled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Iran's opposition says Jaleh was among its supporters and was killed by security forces, while authorities said he was pro-government and that protesters were behind the deaths. Moslehi said 'antirevolutionary forces' and the People's Mujahedeen, an exiled opposition group, were responsible and that the killing had been 'premeditated,' according to Fars." http://t.uani.com/dNvQ8Q
Foreign Affairs
LAT: "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Wednesday slammed Libyan leader Moammar Kadafi for what he described as 'unimaginable repression' against the Libyan people. 'It is unimaginable that someone is killing his citizens, bombarding his citizens,' Ahmadinejad said in an interview broadcast on state television. 'How can officers be ordered to use bullets from machine guns, tanks and guns against their own citizens?' 'This is unacceptable. Let the people speak, be free, decide to express their will,' he added. 'Do not resist the will of the people.' Ahmadinejad has been widely criticized for his government's violent crackdown on protesters following the disputed 2009 presidential elections in Iran." http://t.uani.com/hrywX0
Opinion & Analysis
Abbas Milani in TNR: "When protests erupted on the Iranian streets in 2009, President Obama adopted a deliberately cautious tone. Mindful of the fact that he was simultaneously trying to convince the regime to abandon its nuclear program-and afraid that his open support would make an indigenous revolt seem like a tool of foreign influence-the president condemned the use of violence against the Green Movement, but stopped short of backing their heartfelt calls for freedom and democracy. And again on February 14, many of Iran's major cities were rocked by thousands of brave and determined demonstrators, who defied a government ban on protest and took to the streets. This time, Obama has gone further: He has offered 'moral support' and, for the first time, his national security adviser has issued a statement supporting the Iranian democrats. But the president has yet to appreciate the potential impact that a truly vigorous, full-throated, forceful stand in favor of the Green Movement could have on the Middle East at this moment-because the hypocrisy of the Iranian regime is currently on display like never before. The latest protests were the first time that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, the Green Movement's leaders who had called for the demonstration, openly engaged in an act of civil disobedience, inviting their followers to come out in spite of a threatening government ban. It was whispered on many Iranian websites and blogs that the reason Egypt's million demonstrators could bring down their government, while Iran's three million could not, was that the Green Movement had been truly green and inexperienced: They had simply demanded reforms, whereas it should have been clear even in 2009 that no credible reform was possible within the existing structure of power... Thus, it is time to speak up for democratization. With the hypocrisy of the Iranian regime so exposed, President Obama should no longer be worried that full-throated rhetorical and political support for the protesters could redound against the United States. And now that the international community is united around sanctioning Iran for its nuclear activities, there is less need for Obama to assure Khamenei that he does not want regime change." http://t.uani.com/gWhZgi
Suzanne Maloney in FT: "As upheaval sweeps the Middle East, optimists have hoped that Iran would soon follow Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. In fact, the opposite has happened. As shown by its audacious decision to dispatch warships through the Suez Canal for the first time in 31 years, the Iranian leadership expects to emerge from the regional turmoil further entrenched and emboldened. With a revived opposition mounting a number of large protests, the Islamic Republic ought to be looking across the region with trepidation. Instead its leadership sees the turmoil across the Arab world as confirmation of its ascendancy as a regional power, and America's decline. Tehran is revelling in analogies between Egypt and Tunisia, and its own revolutionary inception. And despite the resurgence of the 'green movement' opposition, Iranian leaders remain confident about their ability to beat back dissent and buy off a conflict-weary population. They are also savvy enough to recognise that those new Arab leaders who emerge are likely to trumpet nationalist sentiments, and are unlikely to embrace the Islamic Republic. Still, regime change will inevitably produce governments that are less compliant to Washington, and less hostile to Tehran. The American experiment in Iraq has taught Iran's ageing revolutionaries that the eviction of an old antagonist is more than sufficient for the purposes of enhancing influence. Moreover, the uncertainty that is an unfortunate offshoot of the dramatic changes is further conducive to Iran's interests." http://t.uani.com/i95qC3
Ari Shavit in Haaretz: "The great Arab revolution holds great promise. Like any uprising against tyranny, it arouses solidarity, enthusiasm and hope. Despite the terrible massacre in Libya, there is no doubt - 2011 is the Middle East's 1989. It could even be the Middle East's 1789. The secular Arab despotism is collapsing before our eyes. The Arab giant is awakening from a coma. A decadent, degenerate, corrupt world order is crumbling. Millions of oppressed people are experiencing their first sense of liberation. The new era that started in Tunisia last month is spreading rapidly to Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Jordan and Bahrain. The Arab men and women of the 21st century have received an unprecedented proposal of freedom. But the great Arab revolution also holds great danger. In the past decade, the United States dismantled Iraq, took Egypt apart and lost Turkey. In doing so, it broke down the Sunni buffer against Iran. These days Washington is dismantling Bahrain, undermining Jordan and endangering Saudi Arabia - thereby turning Iran into the leading regional power. Unless the American policy changes, the result could be a geostrategic disaster. Under the heading of 'democratization,' the Shi'ite Muslims will take over a considerable part of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. Under the heading of 'liberation,' radicals will take over a considerable part of the Arab world. Peace between Israel and the Palestinians, and between Israel and Syria will become impossible. The Israeli-Egyptian and Israeli-Jordanian peace treaties will fade away. Islamic, neo-Nasserist and neo-Ottoman forces will mold the Middle East. The 2011 revolution could end up the same way as the 1789 French Revolution did - some Bonaparte will hijack it, take advantage of it and turn it into a long succession of bloody wars." http://t.uani.com/g5uKHs
Hillel Fradkin and Lewis Libby in World Affairs: "'Today is a turning point in history. Nothing will ever be the same again.' So said Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan shortly after nine Turks aboard a Turkish ship died in a May 2010 clash with Israelis. The ship had challenged Israel's embargo on terror-related goods bound for Gaza. Some observers said that the prime minister shook visibly as he spoke that day. Erdogan was indeed marking a historic turning point. But not in Turkish-Israeli relations. Rather, he should have been seen-and in fact has been seen throughout the Middle East-as signaling a much broader and more ambitious regional agenda for Turkey, one that will impact its relations with Iran. And to the degree that this agenda succeeds, Erdogan's words will be seen as prophetic: nothing hereafter will be the same... This development should not be entirely surprising. Once Erdogan and his party chose to redefine Turkish identity in a more Islamic, and perhaps Islamist, way, and once Turkey set its eyes east and south toward the ancient Muslim heartlands, a rivalry with Iran was likely. Iran's regional ambitions are hardwired into the theocratic regime both by its revolutionary doctrine and the limited legitimacy of its rulers. This is especially true now as different factions of the mullahs' ruling elite compete for ownership of the 'revolution.' As the Arab states' power and influence in the region has declined, Iran has sought, with some success, to take their place. These ambitions have been advanced in the short term by the removal of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein and by the erratic recovery in Iraq and continuing conflict in Afghanistan, but far more by Iran's unchecked pursuit of nuclear weapons. Iran draws, too, upon the attraction of its enormous proven reserves in natural gas and oil (second and third largest, respectively, in the world). But the mullahs' regional ambitions wash up against Iran's ancient rival, Turkey." http://t.uani.com/fvF0p3
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