Top Stories
NYT: "A main leader of Iran's opposition was reported missing on Thursday and both the opposition 'green movement' and Iran's hardliners issued calls for street rallies, escalating tensions after the reemergence of street protests and their brutal suppression on Monday. The daughters of the missing opposition leader, Mir Hussein Moussavi, told an opposition Web site that they had had no word from either of their parents since Tuesday and feared they had been detained. Security forces have surrounded their home, and all communications have been cut. On Wednesday, the Web site of another opposition leader, Mehdi Karroubi, reported that the house of his eldest son had been raided and damaged by security officers seeking to arrest him. Calls have intensified from Iran's Parliament and judiciary for the prosecution of both men, who have been accused repeatedly of waging war against God, a crime that carries the death penalty. This week, as the opposition revived in solidarity with uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, law markers in Parliament called for them to be hanged." http://t.uani.com/eDpA0Y
Bloomberg: "Iran's opposition called for nationwide rallies on Feb. 20 to mourn the deaths of those killed in anti-government protests a week earlier, according to a statement on the website of opposition leader and former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi. 'We invite the noble Iranian nation to attend gatherings in Tehran and other cities on Sunday at 3 p.m. to commemorate the day of martyrdom' of those who died, the opposition said on the website. Mousavi's daughters said they hadn't heard from either of their parents in 48 hours, according to an interview posted on another opposition site, rahesabz.net. The Mousavi house had been surrounded by security forces and all communications cut, they said. Authorities shut down a Feb. 14 demonstration in Tehran that was backed by opposition leaders including Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi, who challenged President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the 2009 presidential election and said the result was rigged. Tens of thousands of protesters were dispersed by security forces using tear gas and baton charges, Al Jazeera television said." http://t.uani.com/gDJPrX
AFP: "The United States imposed sanctions Thursday on Iran's Bank Refah for its ties with the country's proscribed weapons programs. The US Treasury Department accused Bank Refah of providing financial services to the Iranian Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL) and the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company (HESA). In recent years Bank Refah has helped MODAFL obtain millions of dollars' worth of weapons-related purchases, the Treasury department said in a statement. 'These purchases included missiles and tanks and enabled Iran's leadership to maintain its fighter jets and submarines. Bank Refah also facilitated payments from HESA to businesses and individuals linked to Iran's weapons-related procurement,' the department said." http://t.uani.com/ifcrYa
Nuclear Program & Sanctions
Reuters: "U.S. intelligence agencies believe Iranian leaders have resumed closed-door debates over the last four years about whether to build a nuclear bomb. But a recent update to a controversial 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear ambitions also says its leaders have not decided about going ahead with an atomic weapon, according to U.S. officials familiar with the latest assessment. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper described the new document on Wednesday as a 'memorandum to holders' of the 2007 report. Clapper, testifying to the Senate Intelligence Committee about threats to the United States, did not reveal many details of the new assessment of Iran, which officials said would not be published by the government in an unclassified form. But the spy chief did offer a summary of U.S. concerns. 'Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so,' he said." http://t.uani.com/epFGX7
Bloomberg: "Iran requested permission from Egypt to send two naval ships through the Suez Canal on their way to Syria, a move that has ratcheted up Middle East tensions and driven oil prices higher as Israel calls it a 'provocation.' 'The request is being studied,' Hossam Zaki, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, said today in a telephone interview in Cairo. 'Whether or not they actually send them is another story.' The army is also studying the request, a military official said, declining to be identified. He said Iran's application specified that the ships don't hold any nuclear or chemical materials, and are not carrying or delivering weapons. The vessels will go to Syria, where they will anchor 'for a few days' after a trip through the canal that is 'routine according to international law,' Iran's state-run Islamic Republic News Agency said, citing the country's ambassador to Syria, Ahmad Mousavi." http://t.uani.com/dLvoN5
Domestic Politics
AP: "Thousands of government supporters called for the execution of opposition leaders at Friday prayers in the Iranian capital Tehran, following last week's anti-government demonstrations. Hardline cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati said during the Friday prayers that the opposition leaders have lost their reputation among people and are practically 'dead and executed,' while worshippers chanted for their actual executions. Janati proposed more restrictions on Mir Hossein Mousavi on Mahdi Karroubi, opposition leaders who are under house arrest, but still managed to organize the largest opposition protest in more than a year on Monday. 'Their communications with people should completely cut. They should not be able to receive and send message. Their phone lines and internet should be cut. They should be prisoners in their home,' he said." http://t.uani.com/fa6SrR
Daily Telegraph: "Following the recent violence that occurred during anti-government protests in Egypt, the officers argue that it is against the principles of Shi'ite Islamic law to use violence against their own people. In a suggestion of a major split within the Islamic Republic's ruling hierarchy over its handling of anti-government protests, the letter has been circulated widely throughout the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards, the body responsible for defending religious system. The letter, a copy of which has been seen by the Daily Telegraph, is addressed to Major Gen Mohammad Ali Jafari, the Guards' commanding officer. It calls on Major Gen Jafari to issue guidance to both the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij paramilitary militia to use restraint when handling anti-government protests." http://t.uani.com/dZtn1S
Foreign Affairs
Reuters: "Spain and Britain said on Thursday they had protested to Iran over the detention of a Spanish diplomat who had observed an anti-government demonstration in Tehran. Spanish Foreign Minister Trinidad Jimenez, speaking in London after talks with British counterpart William Hague, said Spain considered it serious and 'unacceptable' that a Spanish diplomat had been detained by Iranian police for four hours. Ignacio Perez Cambra, responsible for consular matters at the Spanish embassy in Tehran, was held after observing the demonstration Monday, Spanish press reports say." http://t.uani.com/fr1Bb2
Opinion & Analysis
Con Coughlin in The Daily Telegraph: "All of a sudden, the leaders of the Middle East's rogue states appear to have lost their appetite for upholding the protests that have already accounted for the governments of Tunisia and Egypt. In Iran, the government has ordered its supporters to stage nationwide demonstrations today to express their hatred for the opposition Green Movement, which earlier this week made a dramatic reappearance on the streets of Tehran to demand the overthrow of President Ahmadinejad's regime. That was hardly the response the clerics were hoping for when they extolled the protests in Egypt, comparing events with their own Islamic revolution in 1979. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, claimed earlier this month that the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak was part of the same 'Islamic awakening' as the events of 32 years ago in Iran. Once the crowds of demonstrators and chants of 'Death to the Dictator' appeared on his own doorstep, he rapidly backtracked. Within a few hours, the order had gone out to the broadcast media to halt all coverage of unrest elsewhere in the Middle East. The next day, in a rowdy session of parliament, government MPs called for the execution of the Green Movement's leaders, including Mir Hossein Mousavi, a former prime minister, and Mehdi Karroubi, the parliament's former speaker. So much for free speech. The re-emergence of the Green Movement is certainly a major embarrassment for the government. The mullahs no doubt assumed that their uncompromising response had silenced the protests that erupted in the wake of the disputed presidential election in 2009. Indeed, over the past few months, their executioners have been fully occupied with those accused of organising the protests, many of whom were sentenced to death on trumped-up charges such as drug-smuggling. Iranian opposition groups estimate that the majority of the 89 people executed in January - the highest rate of any country in the world - were anti-government activists." http://t.uani.com/hr8LqE
Geneive Abdo in Foreign Affairs: "The uprising in Egypt has put to rest some of the Iranian opposition's fears: observing the support U.S. President Barack Obama gave Egyptians at critical moments in their three-week uprising, many Iranian activists were convinced that Obama's backing of their cause would give the opposition the push it needs to confront its authoritarian rulers over the long haul. Of course, Obama waited days to endorse the Egyptian uprising, but when he did it sent the message that the United States would not pressure Egypt's military to keep former President Hosni Mubarak in power. This alone heartened Egypt's opposition. A similar endorsement could do the same for Iran's. It is also far less true today than in 2009 that U.S. support would tarnish Iran's opposition movement: it is already clear that the Egyptian uprising and revolts unfurling across the Arab world are popular, local, and independent of the United States. Nonetheless, it remains to be seen whether the United States is prepared to lend the same support to the Green Movement that it did to the Egyptian protesters. Many inside the Washington Beltway believe that, despite the current flare-up, the Green Movement is long dead and not worth the risk of further alienating the Iranian regime. But the United States was too quick to write off the Green Movement in 2009 in the first place. Fundamental change takes time and, more than a lack of will, the Green Movement is plagued by a lack of means to confront a security apparatus far more effective and brutal than that in Egypt. Indeed, Iranians may need U.S. support to face their regime more than the Egyptians did." http://t.uani.com/g61PQ8
Hossein Askari in The National Interest: "Could change come to Iran in as peaceful a way as what we just witnessed in Egypt, or is the Iranian case fundamentally different?... There are undoubtedly numerous historical and social reasons for the relatively peaceful nature of the Egyptian revolution, but most prominent in this is the role of the military. The Egyptian military perceived its primary mission as upholding peace and stability while recognizing the legitimate grievances and aspirations of the Egyptian people. Although the Egyptian military has vast economic interests, it did not view the people's demands as a threat to these interests. At the same time, the Egyptian military has received significant financial support from the United States and has enjoyed close working relations with the U.S. military since the signing of the peace accord with Israel. This close relationship appears to have provided Washington with a channel for achieving a peaceful exit for Mubarak and his cronies. The Iranian military sees itself differently. The military, more specifically its important component the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), sees itself not as the protector of the Iranian people but as the defender of the regime. If the regime is threatened, the IRGC considers itself threatened. This was not the case in Egypt. A fundamental reason for this is the difference in the economic interests of the IRGC in Iran as opposed to those of the Egyptian military. In Iran the economic interests of the IRGC are more pervasive and brazen than those of the Egyptian military: not only do they have vast ownership in the Iranian economy, they also receive large government contracts in areas in which they have no expertise, such as developing a sector of Iran's vast gas field (which it shares with Qatar) in the Persian Gulf. In essence, the leaders of the IRGC view their economic fortunes as tied to the clerical regime and the puppet president. If the regime goes so does the IRGC's religious cover and its vast economic fortune. In Egypt the military's economic interests are not directly threatened by the dismissal of the Mubarak regime and may in fact not fare badly given the ongoing popular support they enjoy. These clear differences in the role of the military in the two dictatorial regimes suggest that it is unlikely the ongoing conflict in Iran will follow the path of the revolution in Egypt." http://t.uani.com/fHw6aX
Roxana Saberi in The Chicago Tribune: "Iranian demonstrators who took to the streets Monday in what organizers called a rally of solidarity with protesters in Egypt and Tunisia are facing a much more arduous battle than their counterparts. Iran's protesters stand against the Basij militia and the Revolutionary Guards charged with defending the Islamic Revolution, said by the regime to number in the millions. Unlike their counterparts, Iranian demonstrators face a regime that is less dependent on the West's good will and whose allies, such as China and Russia, are less likely to hold it accountable if Iran's use of violence does not stop. While authorities in Egypt and Tunisia used force against peaceful protesters, Iran's regime has shown much less restraint and Tehran's efforts to silence opponents by blocking mass communications have been more severe and effective. These are just a few reasons why the international community must keep the spotlight on the struggle of Iranian protesters. While some foreign journalists were assaulted and forced into hiding in Egypt, international news coverage continued - live. Contrast that with Iran, where the few foreign journalists left in the country were prohibited from even witnessing the protests... When the world remains quiet about Iran's human rights offenses, the Islamic Republic believes it can act with impunity. Iranians calling for change may not agree on whether they want reform or revolution, but they agree on what they don't want: the status quo, in which violence, intimidation and human rights violations continue unabated." http://t.uani.com/i2sbG8
Rep. Ted Deutch in The Palm Beach Post: "The revolution in Egypt, and the ensuing democratic uprisings across the Middle East, demonstrate the importance that developments in this region have on the security interests of the United States and our allies. The renewed call for freedom in Iran is, once again, being met with harsh crackdowns from Islamic Revolutionary Guard forces that serve the dictatorship led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, rather than the Iranian people. The volatility of the Middle East reminds us that one of the greatest destabilizing threats to the U.S. and our ally Israel is a nuclear-armed Iran. The crippling economic sanctions signed into law by President Obama last year, as well as those from the United Nations, the European Union, Canada, Australia, Japan, and South Korea, have bolstered an international effort to choke the financial lifeline of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Already, the State Department estimates that nearly $60 billion in investments have been removed from Iran by companies to avoid these sanctions. Yet amidst these international efforts, some U.S. companies and banks continue to work with foreign subsidiaries that support Iran. Illuminating these relationships is no easy task. The crony capitalism under Ahmadinejad has encouraged the formation of a multitude of front companies in the Iranian energy industry. These hidden subsidiaries grant Iran access to our markets, avoiding sanctions, funding uranium enrichment and nuclear research, and financing terrorism... Americans have a right to know whether their investment dollars aid a regime that threatens our security, poses an existential threat to Israel and risks spurring a destabilizing arms race in the Middle East. Legislation I introduced this week in Congress, the Iran Transparency and Accountability Act, would require companies to disclose relevant business in Iran in their quarterly and annual filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Mandating that companies report this information to the SEC would shift the burden of exposing sanctionable activities to the companies, and direct the government to immediately investigate possible violations." http://t.uani.com/ihNC54
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