Top Stories
AP: "Two Iranian naval vessels entered the Suez Canal on Tuesday en route to Syria, officials said, the first time in three decades that Tehran has sent military ships through the strategic waterway. Canal officials said the ships - a frigate and a supply vessel - are expected to reach the Mediterranean later in the day. Israel has made clear it views the passage as a provocation. Israeli officials refused to comment Tuesday, though earlier this week Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he viewed the move 'with gravity.' ... In Syria, officials at the Iranian embassy said it would mark the first time in years that Iranian warships dock in a Syrian port. The ships paid about $300,000 in fees for the passage, according to a Maritime agent." http://t.uani.com/e1tg0Y
WSJ: "After two days of violent street protests in one week, Iran's opposition Green Movement said Monday it was pondering its next move and considering a continuation of street protests, according to opposition websites. A new date hasn't been announced for antigovernment protests although supporters posted on the opposition's Facebook page that this Tuesday or Wednesday are possible. Opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi have been under house arrest for over a week with little communication with the outside world. Their absence, however, appears to have had little impact on the organization of the movement or its ability to mobilize. 'Dictators should know that our fight is not going to end. God willing with courage, coordination and perseverance our next steps will be firmer and harsher,' said Ardeshir Amir Arjemand, part of the committee and Mr. Mousavi's spokesperson abroad, according to the opposition websites." http://t.uani.com/gUKq4J
AFP: "Iranian security forces swept through the homes of opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi and his family, arresting one of his sons and confiscating several documents, his website reported on Tuesday. A top judiciary official meanwhile warned that those who back the opposition movement will not be tolerated and will be considered as 'anti-revolutionary.' Karroubi's website Sahamnews.org reported three separate security operations against the cleric and his family members on Monday, in which his son Ali was arrested. In one operation, security forces raided Karroubi's house in Tehran and 'took with them a large number of books and documents.'" http://t.uani.com/i6F8zJ
Nuclear Program & Sanctions
AFP: "Iran foments instability in the Middle East but is not behind popular protests in Bahrain and other countries in the region, top US military officer Admiral Mike Mullen said Monday in Qatar. 'Iran, I still believe, is a country that continues to foment instability in the region, take advantage of every opportunity,' said Mullen, who is the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But 'from my perspective that has not been the principal focus of what happened in Egypt or what happened in Bahrain or any of these other countries,' he said, referring to popular protests against various Middle East regimes. 'Those are by and large internal issues, as opposed to issues fomented by some external forces,' Mullen said, although 'there's always concerns in this region with Iran and certainly the US has them as well as all the regional players.'" http://t.uani.com/gj324h
JPost: "Tehran could activate Hezbollah forces to attack Israel along the northern border in an effort to stave off domestic pressures within Iran, according to assessments in the IDF's Northern Command. The concern within the army is that if the regime in Tehran feels under pressure due to anti-government demonstrations it will try to initiate an attack on an Israeli target - either overseas or near the border - to divert attention from its own troubles. Demonstrations picked up speed in Iran on Sunday with reports that at least two people were killed and that Hezbollah operatives were assisting Iranian security forces in suppressing the protests." http://t.uani.com/e1KlP2
Foreign Affairs
NYT: "Chancellor Angela Merkel's office on Monday addressed criticism of her foreign minister's decision to meet the Iranian president over the weekend, saying that it was the price to pay for the release of two German journalists and that it did not change Germany's criticisms of the Iranian government. 'In that kind of a situation it is always a question of weighing the pros and cons,' said Steffen Seibert, the chancellor's spokesman. 'We are still absolutely clear about the fact that the situation in Iran concerning human rights and political freedoms is unacceptably bad.' Iran has faced sanctions and political isolation by the United States and European nations because of its nuclear program and its crackdown on political opponents. The German foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle, traveled to Tehran on Saturday to bring home two journalists for the newspaper Bild am Sonntag who were released after being arrested in October, when they were trying to interview family members of a woman who had been sentenced to death by stoning on adultery charges." http://t.uani.com/gAP0hG
NYT: "Reports that two Iranian Navy ships were passing through the Suez Canal early on Tuesday, heading for the Mediterranean, were initially greeted with a tense silence in Israel where officials have described the move as a provocation. The passage of the ships was expected to pass without incident. Although there was no immediate official response to the reports, an aide to Israel's defense minister, Ehud Barak, said by telephone on Tuesday that Israel was obviously not happy at the development. But he reiterated Mr. Barak's view, expressed in an interview with Fox News last week, that while the move was unwelcome, it should not be blown out of proportion." http://t.uani.com/ggj5Wm
Opinion & Analysis
Jonathan Marcus in BBC News: "The passage of two Iranian naval vessels through the Suez Canal represents yet another clear sign of Tehran's widening strategic horizons. This is the first time the Iranian Navy has made such a deployment since the Islamic Revolution that overthrew the Shah in 1979. Its significance is entirely diplomatic. But for Israel and main ally - the United States - it raises all sorts of difficult questions. The two Iranian vessels - a British-built Vosper Mark 5 class Frigate thought to be the Alvand - and a replenishment ship, also British-built - the Kharg - do not represent any significant threat to either the Israeli Navy or US vessels in the Mediterranean. The missile-carrying frigate was launched in 1968. It is an impressive vessel by the standards of the Iranian Navy but no match for comparable western warships, nor the sophisticated missile boats of the Israeli navy. Its deployment sends multiple signals... What's clear is that this deployment is not a direct response to the current upheavals in the Middle East. Iran announced its plan to despatch some of its Navy to the Mediterranean in January - well before the protests that have already swept the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt from power. But - coming in the wake of these political changes - the Iranian deployment will be seen by the Israeli in particular as even more destabilising. For all the Israeli unease, Iran is perfectly entitled to deploy its ships in this way. Indeed given the terms of the Constantinople Convention of 1888 that governs transit through the Suez Canal, there was no real possibility of access being denied by the Egyptians even if they had wanted to." http://t.uani.com/e915MW
John Bolton in the NYPost: "As Iran's rulers busily suppress opposition to their dictatorship, they're poised to seize greater regional influence because of pervasive Middle Eastern unrest. Notwithstanding the undeniable benefits of real, sustainable democracy, it must be secured and enhanced over time, not merely proclaimed in an adrenaline rush. And the hard work to achieve democracy in the Middle East remains. Ask Russians, whose democracy may be disappearing before its adherents can nurture an enduring free society's culture and institutions. Moreover, democracy's theoretical international-relations benefits (the "democratic peace") remain theoretical. Practically, Israel's security is almost certainly in greater jeopardy. Neighboring Arab states, particularly monarchies with close ties to Washington and critical to the global economy, feel similarly threatened. By contrast, Iran's power is dramatically enhanced, however unintentionally, by the consequences of the region's anti-regime demonstrations. When strong Sunni Arab governments are replaced by newer, unsteady regimes, their prospects for democracy notwithstanding, Iran sees weakness to exploit for its own strategic purposes." http://t.uani.com/h80GLb
Amir Taheri in the NYPost: "The decision by Tunisian and Egyptian armies not to crush the pro-democracy movement may be having an effect in an unexpected place: Iran. In a speech last Thursday in Tehran, the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces, Maj. Gen. Hassan Firuzabadi has said that pro-democracy uprisings in the Middle East should not be regarded as 'shallow political agitations.' 'The people of the region are on the march for independence, freedom and Islamic democracy,' he said. Addressing officer cadets, Firuzabadi said the task of the military is 'to protect the frontiers of the country and defend its sovereignty' rather than the regime in place. As an example of army chiefs who ran counter to the will of their people, Firuzabadi cited 'the terrible fate of Saddam's Hussein's generals in Iraq.' The official news agency IRNA gave a brief account of the speech but the rest of the state-owned media ignored it. The general's speech came days after Iran's own pro-democracy movement staged marches in Tehran and several other cities. For the first time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps -- the regime's military backbone -- did not intervene to secure Tehran. That task was given to the paramilitary Baseej ('Mobilization'). The decision not to deploy the guard was taken after the publication on the Internet of a letter purportedly written by a number of mid-ranking officers to Revolutionary Guard Commander Maj. Gen. Muhammad-Ali Aziz Jaafari. In it, they call for 'a clear distinction between the Baseej and the IRGC,' with the guard focusing on 'defending the frontiers of the country.' 'We promise our people that we will not shoot or beat our brothers who are seeking to express legitimate protest against the policies and methods of the leaders,' the letter reads." http://t.uani.com/grHCxT
Akanksha Awal in FT: India is learning that being a global leader is not always good for business. Ten weeks ago it pulled out of the Asian Clearing Union - a system it has long used to settle payments with Iran - due to mounting US pressure. Since then it has run up a tab of $3bn for crude-oil purchases from Iran as it searches for an alternative mechanism. The issue of how to process payments between the trading partners has turned into a political balancing act as India tries to reconcile the expectations of the US, a new friend, with domestic imperatives of energy security and its need to export tea and rice. Iran is India's second largest supplier of crude oil and trade between the two countries totalled US$13.4bn in 2009-10, including $11.5bn in oil. Non-oil trade is also beginning to suffer and India's basmati rice and tea exporters are feeling the squeeze. According to local press reports, India is paying for oil from Iran using EIH, a Hamburg-based bank that was blacklisted by the US last year. But the Reserve Bank of India has made no pronouncement on a lasting mechanism to replace the Asian Clearing Union. Iran is India's second-largest supplier of crude oil, accounting for 12 per cent of imports - particularly significant for a country that imports 80 per cent of its crude oil needs. In non-oil trade, India exports 11m kilos of tea to Iran, 10 per cent of its 200m kilos of tea exports per year. Basmati rice exports to Iran are worth $750m a year, about half the annual total. Both tea and basmati rice exporters are complaining of an oncoming cash crisis due to lack of payments. Payments through EIH must be certified to prevent funds from being directed to Iran's nuclear programme. The mechanism is not open to Indian exporters, adding to pressures on the government to find an alternative solution." http://t.uani.com/gh0WD7
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