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NYT: "For the first time since a disputed presidential vote triggered a bloody crackdown against street protesters in 2009, Iranians went to the polls in a parliamentary vote on Friday likely to reflect a struggle for influence and position among the country's top leaders. In the run-up to the vote, Iranian leaders have been urging a high turnout as they maneuver in advance of presidential elections next year when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad completes his second and final term since 2005. The opposition, which played a central role in voicing accusations of fraud and challenging the outcome of the 2009 vote, has been left greatly weakened by the government's crackdown, its leaders under house arrest or jailed and its access to a voice in the media closed down. Opposition followers had urged a boycott of the vote." http://t.uani.com/y5pQpL
NYT: "Nearly four years ago, when Senator Barack Obama was running for president and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel was head of the opposition, they met here in what aides described as a warm atmosphere. 'Senator,' Mr. Netanyahu said to Mr. Obama, 'as president, many things will cross your desk, but the most important, by far, will be stopping Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.' On Monday, the two will meet again in the shadow of an American presidential election, and Iran will again dominate the conversation. But the bonhomie will be replaced by wary intrigue as Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Obama try to sort out their differences, in timing, messaging and strategic bottom lines, on how to grapple with Iran - while also managing their own strained relationship." http://t.uani.com/xbuUtm
Reuters: "Global oil producers appear to have enough spare capacity to make up for Iranian exports curtailed by tough new sanctions, U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu said on Thursday. Chu said it was important that sanctions be used to crimp Iranian oil sales to ensure Tehran does not develop nuclear weapons, despite the release of an Energy Information Administration report this week that showed supplies are tight. 'There is spare capacity and we believe -- we'll see -- but I think there is sufficient spare capacity,' Chu told reporters on Capitol Hill, noting that the administration will do whatever it can to help stabilize oil prices, including looking at tapping strategic reserves." http://t.uani.com/yb8tHD
Nuclear Program & Sanctions
WSJ: "South Africa's MTN Group Ltd. denied allegations made by a powerful U.S.-based lobbying group that the company purchased certain technology to help the Iranian government track users, saying in a letter to the group that its telecommunications business in Iran is compliant with all laws, Dow Jones Newswires reported. 'Allegations that Irancell's purchases of location-based devices were made at the request of the Iranian government are false,' wrote Sifiso Dabengwa, MTN's chief executive, in a letter to United Against Nuclear Iran seen by Dow Jones Newswires on Thursday. Mark Wallace, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations who is president of the lobby group, sent a letter to Dabengwa in January accusing the company of enabling the Iranian government to track and locate cellphone users, which it says is a violation of human rights. In that letter, Wallace called on MTN to either scale back or leave the country." http://t.uani.com/yboj5V
Naharnet: "An American advocacy group has urged Lebanon's Central Bank governor Riyad Salameh not to conspire with Hizbullah in helping Iran evade the international financial sanctions imposed on it. Al-Akhbar newspaper on Friday reported that the president of United against Nuclear Iran, Mark Wallace, sent Salameh a letter on Feb. 21 inquiring about the Central Bank's efforts in preventing Iran from using the Lebanese financial sector to avoid the international economic sanctions. According to a statement by UANI on its official website, it demanded the Central Bank to 'clarify' the nature of its work with Iranian institutions as the 'Iranian regime and its proxies are widely known to use Lebanese banks and money exchanges.' The statement called on Allied Engineering Group S.A.R.L. (AEG) and Lebanon's Central Bank to 'end their relationships' with Iranian banks and financial institutions... Salamah replied to Wallace's letter asking him to visit Lebanon to confirm that everything is going on properly, according to al-Akhbar." http://t.uani.com/yQkTUU
Reuters: "Japanese buyers of Iran crude may ask Tehran to include a force majeure clause in contracts if they are unable to pay Iran or lift Iranian oil due to lack of insurance cover for tankers under European Union sanctions , industry sources said on Friday. Some oil refiners are set to demand the clause when they start negotiations for term contracts that start from April to avoid unexpected difficulties in lifting Iranian oil, the sources said. Japan's main shipping insurer will only be able to provide a fraction of the coverage to tankers transporting Iranian oil under new EU sanctions starting in July, and sources say that Japanese shipping firms would likely find it hard to carry crude from Iran unless the issue is resolved by then." http://t.uani.com/AtgqKQ
AP: "A congressional deadline for the Obama administration to begin enforcing new financial penalties on foreign firms that do business with Iran passed Wednesday with no fresh action from Washington. While some congressional authors of a bill President Barack Obama signed Dec. 31 expected the administration to announce new punishments on foreign banks, the Treasury Department said it did not have the authority to take that step now. Top administration officials instead pointed to success in persuading friendly countries and financial institutions to cut ties with the Islamic republic on their own. The legislation gave the administration 60 days to investigate private foreign financial institutions engaged in non-petroleum transactions with Iran's powerful Central Bank. That is a run up to heavier sanctions on Iran's lucrative oil business that take effect this summer." http://t.uani.com/AoMHm2
Reuters: "Iran has made a rare purchase of U.S. wheat in an effort to build food stockpiles as the United States and Europe implement tough new sanctions to contain Tehran's nuclear ambitions. The U.S. Agriculture Department reported on Thursday that Iran bought 120,000 tonnes of U.S. wheat -- enough to fill two large cargo ships. While not illegal, the deal caught traders by surprise as tensions mount between the West and Iran on concerns the Islamic Republic was intent on developing a nuclear weapon. 'It shocked me,' said Jerod Leman, a broker with Wellington Commodities Corp. 'With everything going on over there with their nuclear problems, I am surprised we sold them anything.' ... Traders were unable to confirm which grain company sold the wheat to Iran, but suspected major grain companies such as Cargill Inc, Bunge Ltd or Archer Daniels Midland. ADM and Bunge did not respond to inquiries seeking comment and Cargill said they do not comment on market rumors. 'Cargill, like a variety of other multinational companies with a global agricultural footprint, does sell agricultural commodities to Iran, as food is specifically excluded from the sanctions. We take great care to ensure that these sales respect both the spirit and the letter of the law,' Cargill spokesman Mark Klein added." http://t.uani.com/ACf6tC
Reuters: "India's largest shipping company was forced to cancel an Iranian crude oil shipment last month because its European insurers refused to provide coverage for the vessel on the grounds of tightening sanctions on the OPEC member, industry sources said. The European Union announced new sanctions in January prohibiting European insurers from indemnifying ships that carry Iranian crude and oil products anywhere in the world... The suezmax tanker, Maharaja Agrasen, owned by state-run Shipping Corp of India, was initially booked by refiner Indian Oil Corp. to load Iranian crude oil in mid-February, but could not get the necessary insurance coverage." http://t.uani.com/xpDo7G
Reuters: "A state-controlled Russian bank is closing down the accounts of Iranian embassy staff in Moscow in a step criticised by Ambassador Seyed Mahmoud-Reza Sajjadi as surrendering to U.S.-led financial sanctions against Tehran. Sajjadi said on Friday that the shutdown had been ordered at short notice by VTB24, the retail banking arm of Russia's second-largest bank VTB, and that his own credit card had been blocked. The closure of the embassy staff's personal accounts, confirmed by VTB24, comes as Washington steps up efforts to block Iran's ability to conduct financial transactions and force it to the negotiating table over its nuclear programme." http://t.uani.com/yxne8L
WSJ: "Iran's Parsian Bank has opened a credit window in India's UCO Bank Ltd. to facilitate payments for Indian exporters in rupees, Federation of Indian Export Organizations said Friday. 'The payment problem with Iran has been resolved (for exports from India) with the rupee payment mechanism through UCO Bank becoming operational,' M. Rafeeque Ahmed, FIEO's president, said in a statement. He said payments for exports that were stuck earlier will also be cleared through the new mechanism." http://t.uani.com/zAPKCw
WSJ: "Pakistan is not shying away from a fight with the U.S. over Washington's threat of sanctions if Islamabad continues to push ahead with plans for a gas pipeline to Iran. On Wednesday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton threatened sanctions if Pakistan goes ahead with the $1.5 billion pipeline, a project which Washington views as undermining its attempts to squeeze Iran to drop its nuclear program. The next day, Pakistan Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar hit back hard." http://t.uani.com/yfMQeE
Reuters: "An Iranian supertanker loaded with crude that traders had speculated Tehran was struggling to sell due to tightening sanctions is now moored at Shell's Singapore refinery to discharge its cargo, according to Reuters data and sources. The 270,000-tonne tanker Delvar arrived late on Thursday at Bukom island, where Shell's 500,000 barrel-per-day refinery is located, Reuters Freight Fundamentals Database showed. The vessel, part of the fleet of the National Iranian Tanker Co, is due to discharge 1.5 million barrels of crude, three source said on Friday. 'Yes, Shell bought it. There is no other reason for it to be anchored at Bukom,' said a Singapore-based ship broker... Anglo-Dutch Shell, which industry sources say is one of the biggest consumers of Iranian crude worldwide, said: 'We do not comment on our trading activities. Shell complies with all applicable sanctions.'" http://t.uani.com/z43YlE
Domestic Politics
Reuters: "Iranians voted on Friday in a parliamentary election which is expected to reinforce the power of the clerical establishment of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over hardline political rivals led by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The election is unlikely to have much impact on Iran's foreign policies - the country's disputed nuclear programme and international relations are already strictly controlled by Khamenei. But it could allow the clergy to strengthen its hand in determining the political backdrop ahead of a presidential election due in 2013." http://t.uani.com/yhBifr
Reuters: "Faithful supporters of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei flocked to the polls early on Friday but most reformists stayed home, saying the parliamentary election was meaningless. 'I am here to back Ayatollah Khamenei,' shopkeeper Houman Riyazi, 50, said at a polling station in southern Tehran. Khamenei called for a high turnout in the election, seen as a test for the popularity of the clerical establishment, which was rocked by the bloody aftermath of a 2009 presidential vote that reformists said was rigged in Ahmadinejad's favor." http://t.uani.com/x3JR6c
Foreign Affairs
AFP: "A US House of Representatives subcommittee passed a bill Thursday requiring the State Department to report to Congress on Iran's activities in Latin America. The bill, which was approved by a voice vote in the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on terrorism, was pushed by Republicans and some Democrats as a signal of concern over Iran's links in the region. The bill says Iran has doubled the number of embassies it has in Latin America, from five in 2005 to 11 currently, and recalls the 1994 bombing of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires, allegedly backed by Iran, that killed 85 people. It also referred to an alleged plot by Iran to recruit Mexican drug cartel killers to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington." http://t.uani.com/zLOcps
Opinion & Analysis
Jeffrey Goldberg in The Atlantic: "At the White House on Monday, President Obama will seek to persuade the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to postpone whatever plans he may have to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities in the coming months. Obama will argue that under his leadership, the United States 'has Israel's back,' and that he will order the U.S. military to destroy Iran's nuclear program if economic sanctions fail to compel Tehran to shelve its nuclear ambitions. In the most extensive interview he has given about the looming Iran crisis, Obama told me earlier this week that both Iran and Israel should take seriously the possibility of American action against Iran's nuclear facilities. 'I think that the Israeli government recognizes that, as president of the United States, I don't bluff.' He went on, 'I also don't, as a matter of sound policy, go around advertising exactly what our intentions are. But I think both the Iranian and the Israeli governments recognize that when the United States says it is unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapon, we mean what we say.' The 45-minute Oval Office conversation took place less than a week before the president was scheduled to address the annual convention of AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobbying group, and then meet, the next day, with Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House. In the interview, Obama stated specifically that 'all options are on the table,' and that the final option is the 'military component.' But the president also said that sanctions organized by his administration have put Iran in a 'world of hurt,' and that economic duress might soon force the regime in Tehran to rethink its efforts to pursue a nuclear-weapons program. 'Without in any way being under an illusion about Iranian intentions, without in any way being naive about the nature of that regime, they are self-interested,' Obama said. 'It is possible for them to make a strategic calculation that, at minimum, pushes much further to the right whatever potential breakout capacity they may have, and that may turn out to to be the best decision for Israel's security.' The president also said that Tehran's nuclear program would represent a 'profound' national-security threat to the United States even if Israel were not a target of Iran's violent rhetoric, and he dismissed the argument that the United States could successfully contain a nuclear Iran." http://t.uani.com/AwsAO1
James Jay Carafano in CNN: "Trying to understand largely closed regimes is never easy. Consider North Korea or Iran. How are we to understand decision-making as opaque and unexpected as Lady Gaga's dress choices? It's always tempting to avoid the difficulty of understanding foreign powers' seemingly unfathomable decisions by adopting simplistic explanations. Enemies we think we understand are dubbed 'rational.' Those whose behavior puzzles us we deem 'irrational.' Irrational regimes are, of course, unpredictable and unmanageable. They must be treated as implacable enemies. If they are rational, however, then the threats they pose may be managed. There! See how easy that was? Easy, yes. Helpful, no. During recent congressional hearings, Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has been trying to explain why he told CNN's Fareed Zakaria that Iran is a 'rational actor.' He may be right. So what? It doesn't really help answer the question of what to do about Tehran. If you don't understand what factors an opponent weighs as important benefits and what it considers to be worrisome costs, you can't predict what a rational decision might look like to him. Moreover, if you bank on the enemy being rational - without leaving allowances that the enemy might make mistakes, stupid choices, or be at least partially influenced by emotional fervor - your forecast regarding his next steps may be way off base. And, if Gen. Dempsey is right and the other side really is coldly rational, then, Houston, we have a huge problem. There are many rational reasons why Iran would want a nuclear weapon, and want it quickly. For starters, it's a wonderful insurance policy for a regime. Once you go nuclear, no one messes in your internal affairs. Moreover, nukes give you a much stronger hand at the negotiating table. They add an awful lot of oomph to your demands to lift international sanctions. And, of course, they let you threaten other nations with nuclear Armageddon unless they fall in line. If you're an isolated regime, what's not to love? Once Iran goes nuclear, there is not much hope that rationality will somehow prevail in the region. Rather, the most 'rational' response from states like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt would be to fast-track development of their own nuclear weapons to offset a nuclear Iran's regional dominance." http://t.uani.com/zsxHHK
Meir Javedanfar in The Diplomat: "The results of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Iran, scheduled for March 2, will tell us much about Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's ambitions and concerns, but little about what the people of Iran want. This is because in all likelihood, these elections will be anything but democratic. It will be the Iranian supreme leader who decides who the winners and losers of these elections will be, and he won't want to leave things to chance. With U.S.-led sanctions hurting his regime and undermining his legitimacy since the fraudulent 2009 presidential election, control of the regime is now more important than ever for Khamenei. This's why he won't want - or allow - the results of tomorrow's election to be decided by anyone other than himself. Fearing a low turnout, the Iranian regime will also likely come up with its own figure for how many people voted, so expect the official figure to be at least 60 percent, if not much higher. There are more than 60 different factions participating in these elections, but three groups stand out as the most powerful -President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's allies, backers of the ultra-conservative and messianic Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi (currently a member of the Assembly of Experts), and the United Principalist Front, which is made up of various conservative and traditional forces. The reformist allies of Mir HosseinMousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, meanwhile, have no chance of winning as they have been barred from even competing in the poll. In the last parliamentary election, Khamenei gave a majority of seats to the pro-Ahmadinejad Jebhe-ye Mottahed-e Osulgarayan (United Principalist Front) faction, by allowing more of their candidates to qualify than their chief rivals, the anti-Ahmadinejad Etelaf-e Faragir-e Osulgarayan (Broad Principalist Coalition) faction. But Ahmadinejad's supporters are expected to do badly tomorrow, for a number of reasons. The most important of these is that Ahmadinejad has fallen out with Khamenei since last May. This is a problem for the president because it's due to Khamenei's support that Ahmadinejad won the 2005 and 2009 presidential elections. The same goes for the success of his supporters in the 2008 parliamentary elections. With Ahmadinejad's relations with Khamenei deteriorating, and with growing tensions with elements within the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp, the prospects for Ahmadinejad and his supporters are poor. It would be a huge upset if Ahmadinejad's faction does somehow do well, especially as concerns grow that the weakening of Ahmadinejad's is posing a threat to the stability of the regime." http://t.uani.com/x8TZux
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