Friday, January 4, 2013

Eye on Iran: In Iran's Factories and Shops, Tighter Sanctions Exact Toll








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Top Stories

WSJ:
"Western sanctions against Iran, combined with years of economic mismanagement by the country's government, have hammered Iran's currency and its economy. The economy was predicted to contract by nearly 1% in 2012, according to the International Monetary Fund, after registering annual growth above 6% for much of the past decade. The IMF said Iran's economy could grow again in 2013, but stressed that the collapse of the currency, inflation and reduced oil sales were working against a rebound... Across Iran, industries are facing similar problems. At the Alborz industrial complex near the city of Qazvin, many factories are searching for cost-saving measures. Some are closing an extra day each week, cutting paid holidays and reducing the number of free meals and snacks provided to workers. The five major factories that produce the bulk of Iran's dairy products wrote a joint letter to Mr. Khamenei, the country's supreme leader, in October complaining that if the economy doesn't turn around they would be out of business in months. Iran's car industry, the region's largest with manufacturing plants from Africa to Ukraine, posted 60% to 80% production declines last year, leading to hundreds of thousands losing their jobs, according to Iranian media reports. Many manufacturers of automobile spare parts are working at 40% capacity because of a shortage of cash and a lack of raw materials, according to a statement by one of the industry's union leaders." http://t.uani.com/1384YLD

WSJ: "President Barack Obama signed tough new sanctions on Iran into law late Wednesday, the White House said. Congress, as it did with a previous law in late 2011, overwhelmingly approved the legislation and tucked it into a must-pass defense authorization bill. Unlike last year, however, Obama didn't mention any problems with the Iran sanctions provisions in a lengthy signing statement he issued when signing the 680-page law. He dropped an earlier threat to veto it over other concerns, however, saying, 'the need to renew critical defense authorities and funding was too great to ignore.' The new Iran measures target the country's energy, shipping and shipbuilding sectors, already in the sights of U.S. sanctions. But the legislation goes further, restricting trade with Iran in precious metals, graphite, aluminum and steel, metallurgical coal and software for integrating industrial processes... It also targets the state broadcast network, called the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, which the law says violated human rights by broadcasting forced confessions and show trials. The law orders the U.S. Treasury to slap sanctions on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting and its president, Ezzatollah Zargami." http://t.uani.com/UMVoMg

Reuters: "The European Union says no date has been fixed for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, while hoping they will be soon, an EU foreign affairs spokesman said. He was reacting to comments from Iran's top nuclear negotiator, who said earlier on Friday the country had agreed to hold talks in January with the six major powers - represented by the EU - about its atomic program. Saeed Jalili, Iran's national security council secretary, said in India that Iran had 'accepted that these talks should be held in January, but until now, the details have not been finalized'. He was speaking through a translator. However, the EU spokesman would not say whether the powers had agreed to further talks with Iran. Discussions on a date and venue are still ongoing, said Michael Mann, a spokesman for EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton, who leads negotiations on behalf of the six powers - the United States, Russia, France, Britain, Germany and China." http://t.uani.com/WaWk8Z
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Nuclear Program

Today's Zaman: "President Abdullah Gül has called for a comprehensive solution to an international dispute over Iran's nuclear program and said Turkey does not want to see any neighboring country possess nuclear weapons. 'Turkey will not accept a neighboring country possessing weapons not possessed by Turkey herself,' Gül said in an interview published in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs. 'We are not underestimating this matter in any way.' Turkey has initially raised eyebrows in the West by brokering -- together with Brazil -- a deal with Iran on its nuclear program in 2010 and then vetoing UN sanctions against Iran that the West had sought to impose on Tehran. But Ankara's relations with Tehran later began to deteriorate as the two countries found each other at odds over Syria, and political dialogue has decreased as a result." http://t.uani.com/Z2Uycg

Wired: "Iran's newest gunship helicopter, unveiled Wednesday, might look awfully familiar to aviation historians. And it's not unique in that regard. Almost all of Iran's 'new' weaponry - including jet fighters, 'copters, warships, tanks, missiles and other equipment - is a copy of a much older American, British, Russian, Chinese or North Korean design. But that doesn't mean all of Tehran's weapons suck. Far from it. While some of the sillier Iranian gear is obviously meant mostly for fleeting propaganda purposes, the main hardware is grounded in experience and hardship. Driven by desperation and shaped by the isolation that comes with widening external sanctions, Tehran's copycat arsenal could contain a few nasty surprises for the U.S. and its allies in the unlikely event that tensions over Iran's nuclear program come to blows. For one, low-tech weapons force the users to fight creatively. 'There's a chance they'll catch us by surprise,' Air Force Lt. Col. Dan Ward, an engineer and acquisitions expert and prolific writer, tells Danger Room in an e-mail." http://t.uani.com/S9598m

Daily Star: "Hezbollah and Syria, Iran's two allies in the region, are unlikely to help Tehran in any military confrontation with Israel given the weakened state of the government in Damascus, Maariv newspaper reported Friday. Maariv, referring to an intelligence report by Israel's Foreign Ministry, said Syria would not risk losing its grip on power by joining a battle to defend Iran as its central government faces rapid disintegration as a result of the 21-month-old crisis there. The report, which Maariv said was presented to Israeli diplomats at a Jerusalem conference this week, also said the conflict in Syria has taken its toll on the military there. 'Iran's ability to harm Israel in response to an attack on our part declined dramatically,' Maariv quoted a senior official who attended a Jerusalem conference as saying." http://t.uani.com/RwwdNq

Sanctions

Reuters: "Turkish refiner Tupras has asked the country's statistics agency to stop publishing details of its oil imports from Iran as it comes under pressure over tightening U.S. sanctions on Tehran's oil trade, Turkish officials said on Friday. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) stopped publishing the origin of Turkey's crude oil imports in late December, releasing figures for total monthly imports only, according to data on its website. 'Tupras asked TUIK not to release Tupras' oil import data from Iran, and TUIK stopped releasing the data,' a Turkish official told Reuters, asking not to be named. A second source familiar with the matter also said Tupras had made the request because it was coming under pressure over its imports from Iran." http://t.uani.com/Z2Yp9t

WSJ: "Iran has sent a top official to India to reaffirm its ties with the South Asian country at a time when Tehran is facing tough U.S. economic sanctions. Over the past two days, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary and Chief Nuclear Negotiator Saeed Jalili has met India's national security advisor Shiv Shankar Menon, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram and Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid. The visit comes at a tricky time for Iran, one during which it's crucial to maintain its relations with India... The U.S. has pressured countries that buy oil from Iran to reduce purchases or face sanctions. India was among countries that won a reprieve last month for significantly cutting back its imports from Tehran. According to news reports, India bought 12% less Iranian crude between April and September compared to a year earlier. New Delhi has pledged to reduce its purchases of Iranian crude in the current fiscal year through end-March by 11% to 15.5 million tons. At the same time, India faces pressure from Tehran to continue to purchase oil. With the U.S.-dollar financing system out of bounds for Iranian companies, India and Iran have begun a barter system in which Tehran accepts Indian rupees in payment for crude oil. It then uses these rupees to buy Indian goods like wheat." http://t.uani.com/S95FU0

Tanker Operator: "Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qassemi has claimed that the country's oil industry has set up an international insurance company to insure tankers carrying its export crude shipments. 'The first step to confront these sanctions was establishing an international insurance company, which insures Iranian oil tankers and we have taken effective measures to get rid of these sanctions and it is now evident that we have left behind the difficult conditions of the early days of the sanctions,' Qassemi said, addressing a recent seminar in Tehran. According to newswire reports, early last month, managing director of Iranian Mualem Insurance Co, Mahmoud Tadayoun, said that his company had started insuring domestic oil tankers after the US and EU boycotted all vessels carrying Iranian crude cargoes. He also said that Mualem Insurance Co is exclusively in charge of providing P&I insurance to Iranian tankers." http://t.uani.com/X5Z4HE

Opinion & Analysis

Majid Rafizadeh in FP: "Many analyses have been made about Iran's strategic and geopolitical role in the Syrian regime, but not enough attention has been paid to the crucial and changing economic relations between the two countries. By analyzing Iran-Syria relations through this prism, one can shed light on the more nuanced, unconventional, and complicated aspects of Iran's role in Syria. Iran has historically invested a considerable amount of money, resources, skilled forces, and labor in Syria. These investments were ratcheted up, particularly, in the last few years before uprisings began erupting in March 2011 across Syria. Although large sums of money and resources were allocated to investments in Syrian transportation and infrastructure, Iranian and Syrian economic ties are not limited to these spheres. A few months before the popular uprisings were ignited, Iranian authorities signed a $10 billion natural gas agreement with Syria and Iraq for the construction of gas pipeline that would start in Iran, run through Syria, Lebanon, and the Mediterranean, and reach several Western countries. According to the agreement, Iraq and Syria would receive a specified amount of cubic meters of natural gas per day. This proposal was endorsed by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who also supported the allocation of $5.8 billion in aid to Syria by Iran's Center for Strategic Research (CSR), which concentrates on the Islamic Republic of Iran's strategies in six different arenas including Foreign Policy Research, Middle East and Persian Gulf research, and International political economy research. Another unique and significant agreement that was signed before the crisis broke out in Syria was a proposal to establish a joint bank in Damascus, 60 percent of which the Iranian government would own. The agreement would have allowed Iran to identify other financial hubs with which to conduct its transactions in Syria. At the time, Syrian banks were allowed to engage in trade and transactions with the West, prior to sanctions imposed after the start of the conflict. Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad discussed an even more comprehensive agreement shortly before the uprisings seeking to establish a regional economic bloc. As a result of this proposal, a 17-article agreement was signed which focused on 'trade, investment, planning and statistics, industries, air, naval and rail transportation, communication and information technology, health, agriculture, [and] tourism.' The recent rounds of international sanctions imposed on Syria have led to the suspension of all former agreements that Iran was attempting secure in the region, which has put tremendous pressure on Iran. The Syrian pound (SYR) has lost 25 percent of its spending power falling from 47 SYR to $1 USD to 67 SYR to $1 USD. The Syrian Ministry of Economy has stated that food prices have surged dramatically. The prices of some items have increased by up to 37 percent since the popular uprisings began. Due to increases in military expenditures, public expenditures increased by $19 billion in 2011. Meanwhile, public revenue has decreased by $2.31 billion. Although Iranian officials have frequently pointed out that their economic alliance would not be shaken by the security issues since the uprisings began, Syrian state companies as and business operators have encountered growing difficulties and obstacles in trading and reaching deals with Iran due to the restrictions on dollar transactions. The Iranian and Syrian economic alliance has operated between multi-level contracts of state and semi-private organizations through the adoption of the dollar for transactions, which were worth billions of dollars. However, regulations imposed by the United States, European Union, and other Arab Gulf states after the start of the conflict have made it difficult to utilize and source foreign currencies through the Syrian Central Bank... Without doubt, Iran has tremendous geopolitical and strategic interests in Syria, but the country has additionally become a crucial economic lifeline for Iran. As both countries become increasingly isolated from the international community their economic ties have become exceedingly more important. However, billions of dollars in Iranian investments have been suspended with the current crisis in Syria. And until there is a resolution to the nearing two-year conflict, with either Assad regaining control or the establishment of a new government, economic conditions will continue to be threatened." http://t.uani.com/UKZd3D

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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