Thursday, February 28, 2013

Eye on Iran: Lawmakers Introduce Bipartisan Measure to Toughen Iranian Sanctions









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NYT: "As Iranian negotiators spoke in positive tones about their resumed nuclear negotiations with the big powers, Congressional lawmakers in Washington introduced legislation on Wednesday that would greatly expand the sanctions on Iran, amounting to what both supporters and critics said would be like a commercial trade embargo if fully carried out. The bipartisan measure, which was expected to pass both the House and the Senate, would build on existing laws that restrict business dealings with Iran, widen the list of blacklisted Iranian companies and individuals and potentially block Iran's access to its foreign bank assets held in euros. That access has been one of the country's few remaining avenues for repatriating profits that are not held in dollars, which have been greatly constricted by other sanctions. The legislation, named the Nuclear Iran Prevention Act, also would penalize foreign companies and individuals that violate the American sanctions by threatening them with restrictions on doing business with the United States, a coercive tactic integrated into earlier, narrower sanctions." http://t.uani.com/Y72yec

NYT: "Two days of talks between six world powers and Iran over its nuclear program ended on Wednesday with specific agreement for further meetings in March and April over a proposal that would sharply constrain Iran's stockpile of the most dangerous enriched uranium, in return for a modest lifting of some sanctions. But the six powers dropped their demand that Iran shut down its enrichment plant at Fordo, built deep underneath a mountain, instead insisting that Iran suspend enrichment work there and agree to take a series of steps that would make it hard to resume producing nuclear fuel quickly. The six also agreed, in another apparent softening, that Iran could keep a small amount of 20 percent enriched uranium - which can be converted to bomb grade with modest additional processing - for use in a reactor to produce medical isotopes. It was unclear whether any of these new positions would pave the way for any kind of agreement. Iran's negotiators must now take the new proposal back to Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, at a time of intense maneuvering and infighting in Iran." http://t.uani.com/VQ0E1R

AFP: "Iran on Wednesday unveiled a draft annual budget that envisages a 40-percent decrease in vital oil revenues, heavily restricted by international sanctions, media reports said. The new budget expects $30 billion (23 billion euros) in oil earnings, down from $51 billion expected last year, and far below the more than $100 billion of actual earnings in the year ending in March 2012, the reports said. It asks for 7,305,000 billion rials ($197 billion at the free market rate and $595 billion at the official rate), a rise in rials of 31 percent on the previous year. But Iran's currency has lost more than 70 percent of its value in the past year, and the draft did not set the exchange rate used in calculating the budget... 'The oil price used in the budget has been set at 95 dollars' per barrel, budget official Rahim Mombeini was quoted as saying by the Mehr news agency. 'We expect oil prices not to fall below 100 dollars.'" http://t.uani.com/Xd12sh
MTN BannerNuclear Program

WSJ: "After weeks of speculation and an offer from Washington for bilateral discussions about its nuclear program, Iran did sit down with Western powers this week for one-on-one talks but it was with the U.K. and German negotiating teams, not the U.S. The nuclear bilaterals with the U.K. in Almaty, Kazakhstan's largest city, were the first in about three years, according to a British official. A German foreign ministry spokesman was not immediately available but a Western diplomat said the German team has had no bilateral talks with Iran since nuclear talks picked up again in April 2012... The British talks are especially noteworthy. The U.K. has maintained a strong line on the Iran talks-open to a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue but pressing for talks to move quickly. London has said repeatedly that all options, including a military one, remain on the table." http://t.uani.com/YBUmj3

Sanctions

AP: "Iran's top leader told the visiting Pakistani president on Wednesday that the two countries should ignore U.S. opposition to construction of a gas pipeline. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran was the only secure source of energy that can meet Pakistan's needs. Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari was visiting Tehran to finalize a long-awaited gas pipeline deal with Iran. The U.S. is against the project because it wants to isolate Iran economically over fears that the country might ultimately be able to develop a nuclear weapon. Tehran denies the charge, saying its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. 'One should resolutely pass these objections,' Iran's state TV quoted Khamenei as telling Zardari. 'The Islamic Republic of Iran is the only secure source of energy in this region and we are ready to meet Pakistan's needs in this field.'" http://t.uani.com/XhFJnV

Terrorism

Reuters: "Argentina's Congress approved early on Thursday a agreement with Iran to investigate the 1994 bombing of a Buenos Aires Jewish community center that Argentine courts have long accused Tehran of sponsoring. Jewish leaders say the pact to set up a 'truth commission' risks undermining the ongoing judicial investigation into the attack, which killed 85 people, but President Cristina Fernandez says it could shed new light on the case after years of deadlock... 'This is the chronicle of a failure foretold,' said opposition lawmaker Eduardo Amadeo, an ex-ambassador to Washington, accusing the government of putting commerce before justice and criticizing Iran's record on human rights. 'We're going to sell out the victims for a barrel of oil.' Others cited Iran's growing imports of farm goods from the South American nation, one of the world's top grains suppliers, and said they feared the commission would undermine the evidence gathered by Argentine prosecutors so far." http://t.uani.com/Xmr6jh

Opinion & Analysis


FT Editorial: "Iran has this week held talks with the US and other world powers to try and resolve the decade-long impasse over its nuclear programme. Once again, a shaft of light has emerged that will raise hopes that war can be averted. After two days of talks in Almaty in Kazakhstan, Iran agreed to hold two subsequent meetings in March and April aiming to reach a deal that allays western fears it is seeking a nuclear bomb. So a diplomatic process is once again under way that might lead to peace. Anyone who has watched the interminable diplomatic dance over Iran in recent years can be forgiven for being sceptical of success. Twice in the past four years, Iran has ended major meetings with the six world powers - the US, Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia - pledging to begin a serious set of negotiations. Over time, those pledges have been undermined by its unwillingness to do a deal. Moreover, while Iran set a positive tone in Almaty on Wednesday, on most other fronts it is taking actions that suggest it is stalling for time. Last week the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that the Iranians are installing centrifuge spinning machines at their main uranium enrichment site at a faster rate than anticipated. This could put Iran in a better position one day to begin a final dash for the bomb that cannot be stopped by the US and Israel. The IAEA also revealed that Iran was pressing ahead with work on a heavy-water plant at Arak. This could one day give it a plutonium-based route to a bomb. In the face of this, the world has done as much as it can to accommodate the Iranians. The US is openly offering direct and bilateral talks. Western diplomats have pretty much accepted that any deal could result in Iran ending up with a right to enrich uranium for its putative nuclear programme. The US and its allies are even prepared to start peeling back sanctions if Iran makes the first moves to build confidence. But whether Iran will respond positively is unknown." http://t.uani.com/YJ94ZF

James Blitz in FT: "The latest meeting between Iran and world powers to try and resolve the dilemma over the Iranian nuclear programme is over. And once again, a shaft of light has emerged that will lead some to hope that military action over the Iranian programme might be averted. After two days of talks in the freezing city of Almaty in Kazakhstan, Iran has told the US and five other world powers that it is prepared to hold a couple more meetings in March and April to try to resolve international concerns that it wants a nuclear bomb. That said, few will want to overplay the significance of this move. Here are three reasons why many western diplomats will be cautious.
1.       Does more meetings just mean stalling for time? In Geneva in 2009 and in Istanbul last April, Iran made similar declarations, giving the green light for further talks on confidence-building measures that went nowhere. So most diplomats will be pretty neutral about Iran agreeing to follow-on talks again. Plenty will worry instead that Iran is stalling for time while it develops its nuclear programme on the ground.
2.       It was the six world powers that came up with the compromises at Almaty - not Iran. At meetings last year, the six asked Iran to agree to a list of concessions - namely, to stop further production of highly enriched 20 per cent uranium; to shut its Fordow enrichment plant; and to ship its existing 20 per cent stockpile out of the country. In return for all this, the six offered some specific economic help but no sanctions relief at all. This time, the international powers said for the first time that in return for these concessions, they would peel back sanctions - on the trade in gold and petrochemicals. Indeed, the six no longer seek complete closure of Fordow, just a commitment to 'reduce the readiness' of the plant.
3.       Iran is steadily building up nuclear capability on the ground. The International Atomic Energy agency reported last week that Iran is installing new IR-1 centrifuges at Natanz at a faster-than-expected rate. This could allow it to make a faster final sprint to a bomb than had been thought. Iran is also pressing ahead with construction of its IR-40 Arak reactor, which could give it a plutonium-based pathway to a weapon.
The outcome, therefore, is mixed. The good news is that a chance for a deal to avert military action has again opened up. The bad news is that the timescale within which that deal must be reached - if this epic diplomatic stand-off is not to end in war - has shortened." http://t.uani.com/15Tb70x


Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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