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Top Stories
AP: "The
U.S. has concluded that nearly half of Iran's monthly earnings from crude
oil exports are accumulating in accounts overseas because of sanctions
that restrict Tehran's access to the money. The estimates, provided to
The Associated Press by a senior U.S. official and never released before,
are the latest indication that new sanctions imposed in February are
deepening Iran's economic distress and making it increasingly difficult
to access billions of dollars in vital oil revenues. The official spoke
on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of sanctions policy.
The U.S. estimates that about $1.5 billion in crude oil revenues is
piling up in restricted foreign accounts every month. Crude revenues
overall averaged about $3.4 billion monthly in the first half of year,
according to the assessment. That means Iran is not able to either spend
or repatriate about 44 percent of its crude oil income." http://t.uani.com/194OGpF
WSJ: "Iran
and the Lebanese political and militant group Hezbollah are debating
whether to retaliate on behalf of Syria in the event of a strike on their
close ally. The two, which along with Syria help form what they call an
'axis of resistance' against the West, are discussing whether to attack
Western interests, and if so, whether to do so openly or covertly and through
proxies. People with knowledge of the discussions in Iran and within
Hezbollah said the Syrian allies are considering whether to deploy
long-range missiles against Israeli and American warships or military
bases in the region if the U.S. attacks Syria in response to what America
and its allies say was a deadly chemical attack by Damascus last
week." http://t.uani.com/1a5fnPy
Bloomberg: "Excluding
Iran from the global oil market increased the shortfall between worldwide
supply and demand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.
Global petroleum use averaged 2.2 million barrels a day more than output
in July and August when Iran is excluded from the calculations, the EIA,
the Energy Department's statistical arm, said in a report today. Iran can
help reduce the deficit by 1.5 million barrels a day as the country's
production outpaced demand, the EIA said. ...Global petroleum production
excluding Iran averaged 85 million barrels a day in July and August and
consumption averaged 87.2 million, the EIA said. Iran produced 3.4
million barrels a day of fuels and used 1.9 million." http://t.uani.com/15E7hZN
Nuclear
Program & Sanctions
Washington Free
Beacon: "Iran is on course to test around 1,000 new
advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges, renewing concerns that Tehran is
quietly marching toward a nuclear weapon as the West turns its eye to
Syria, according to a report released Wednesday by the United Nations'
top nuclear watchdog. UANI spokesman Nathan Carleton said the IAEA report
provides clear proof that Iran is taking great steps forward on the
nuclear front. 'Unsurprisingly, this report shows that Iran's nuclear
program keeps advancing,' Carleton told the Washington Free beacon. 'The
recent political changes in the country have not changed that trajectory,
nor should anyone expect them to.' Iran remains committed to its nuclear
program despite the election of Rowhani, Careton said. 'The same regime
is still in charge, and the international community must not fall for a
Rowhani-led charm offensive while the centrifuges keep spinning...'"
http://t.uani.com/16W45s9
Syria
Conflict
RFE/RL:
"U.S.-led military attack on Syria will inevitably cause collateral
damage, and one casualty could be rising optimism for rapprochement
between Tehran and Washington. President Hassan Rohani's election victory
in July was widely seen as an opening for improved relations between Iran
and the United States. Rohani took a relatively moderate position on
policy issues during his campaign, pledging to improve ties with the West
and try a different approach in negotiations over Iran's contentious
nuclear program. That was welcomed by Iranian voters keen on seeing
international economic sanctions lifted, and by many U.S. lawmakers open
to talks that could prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Patrick
Clawson, director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy, says a U.S. intervention in Syria would considerably complicate
such efforts." http://t.uani.com/15py2wT
Human Rights
Fox News:
"Secretary of State John Kerry called on Iran to "work
cooperatively" to help return three Americans, including Pastor
Saeed Abedini, whose eight-year prison sentence was upheld days ago, to
their families. In his most extensive public comments to date concerning
Abedini, the 33-year-old Christian being held in Tehran's notorious Evin
prison, Kerry called on new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to free him
and imprisoned former U.S. Marine Amir Hekmati, and to help locate a
former FBI agent, Robert Levinson, who was last seen in Iran in 2007.
'These men belong at home with those who love them,' Kerry said." http://t.uani.com/17rboai
Domestic
Affairs
NY Times:
"At the top of the agenda of Iran's new president, Hassan Rouhani,
is fixing the country's crumbling economy, and promoting international
tourism is part of his solution. Mr. Rouhani wants the number of foreign
visitors to more than double, to 10 million from 4 million, each year,
according to a report last month in The Washington Post. Such an
increase, The Post reported Mr. Rouhani as saying, would 'create jobs for
4 million people, solving the problem of 3.5 million unemployed people in
this country.' That goal is welcome news to Hamid R. Tavassoli, founder
of Iranian Tours, a Tehran-based agency that runs guided trips to cities
like Yazd and Shiraz. 'I believe the Iranian culture, nature, hospitality
and infrastructure very well deserves a much larger number of tourists to
visit the country,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1dxq3aV
Foreign
Affairs
WSJ:
"India is making progress with Iran in resolving a dispute over an
Indian oil tanker that was detained by Iranian naval authorities more
than two weeks ago, an executive at state-run Shipping Corp. of India
Ltd., the tanker's owner, said Friday. 'We are very, very hopeful. The
ship may be released by [this] evening or tomorrow,' the executive, who
has knowledge of the negotiations, told The Wall Street Journal. Iran
detained the ship carrying crude oil from Iraq to India on Aug. 13,
saying it was polluting Iranian waters. India has denied the allegation
and according to Shipping Corp., the vessel wasn't in Iranian waters when
it was detained." http://t.uani.com/1a58vld
Opinion &
Analysis
Meir Javedanfar
for Al-Monitor: "To Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, Arak is much more important than Assad. Arak, the site of
Iran's heavy water reactor, as well as Iran's other nuclear installations
at Natanz and Fordo would become dangerously exposed to a potential
future attack if Iran goes into war against the United States to protect
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. With Russia dismantling and scrapping
the S-300 anti-aircraft missiles which Iran bought and made a down
payment on in 2007, Iran needs to keep what remains of its anti-aircraft
system at home. It cannot afford to send them to Syria to help Assad's
army. The same goes for Iran's missiles and fighter aircraft, especially
the latter, because sanctions have reduced their numbers and quality over
the years. Sending them abroad to help Assad against the United States
would risk their loss, knowing full well that it will be extremely
difficult if not impossible to replace them. These are important reasons
why, in case of a military attack by the United States against Syria,
there is little chance that Iran will become directly involved. This is
despite Iran stating that it would consider such an attack as crossing
its 'red line.' There are also historical reasons which back the theory
that Iran is likely to stay away. Despite several reported attacks by the
Israeli air force against Assad's military and in one case nuclear
installations, Iran never became involved in a war against Israel to
defend Assad. Iran's military leadership is well aware that such a war
would have exposed its nuclear installations and its military hardware to
attacks by the Israeli air force. If Iran did not want to confront Israel
because of Assad, its very unlikely that it would want to confront the
United States, which has a far bigger and more powerful military arsenal.
Its also quite unlikely that a US-Syria conflict would lead to Iran
permanently breaking off nuclear negotiations with the P5+1. Here again,
the reason is related to Iran's own pressing priorities, which are most
likely to win the day over those of Bashar al-Assad." http://t.uani.com/12SQRf3
Brian Murphy, AP:
"For more than a generation, Iranian papers have regularly posted
the announcements: Another veteran from the 1980s war with Iraq has died
of complications blamed on exposure to chemical weapons from Saddam
Hussein's arsenal. Each one is buried with a hero's honors. The claims
now that Iran's Syrian allies used similar tactics, including possibly
unleashing sarin gas, has forced Tehran's leaders into perhaps their most
difficult juncture of the nearly 30-month civil war. Iran's rulers could
face an uncomfortable backlash at home - and possibly stir upheavals
inside its powerful Revolutionary Guard - if they're seen as ignoring
allegations and U.N. investigations into possible chemical attacks by
Bashar Assad's regime. Yet Iran remains, for the moment at least, solidly
behind Assad and seeks to shift attention to efforts at blocking possible
Western military action against Syria. Damascus is a critical ally for
Tehran as a major foothold in the Arab world and its pathway to funnel
aid to its main proxy militant, Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran's strategy
includes a series of warnings that Israel could be drawn into a wider
conflict - most likely by Hezbollah offensives - if the U.S. and others
launch attacks on Syrian government sites. Iran's Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier this week described possible Western
attacks as 'a spark in a gunpowder store.' Tehran also is using its
diplomatic leverage with Russia and China to try to slow the momentum toward
possible military action. On Thursday, Iran's new president, Hasan
Rouhani, called possible military strikes on Syria an 'open violation' of
international laws. The comments, reported by state TV, followed talks by
telephone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Rouhani repeated his
blanket condemnations of any use of chemical weapons. But he also tried
to appeal to political blocs in the West, including the U.S., that are
wary of a rush to military action. 'Early judgment can be dangerous,'
said Rouhani, insisting more time is needed to probe the allegations that
it was Assad's regime that used possible chemical agents in an Aug. 21
attack that the aid group Doctors Without Borders says killed at least
355 people. Syrian officials insist that rebels carried out the attack.
Iran's seesaw strategy of denouncing chemical weapons but not directly
implicating Assad appears to underscore the ongoing debates inside Iran's
leadership of just how far to stick by Assad." http://t.uani.com/14dCMq0
Michael Young, NOW
Lebanon: "Pity Hezbollah. After years of hearing
earnest observers tell you what a quintessentially Lebanese party it was,
and a revolutionary one at that, now we can plainly see that it is merely
the Foreign Legion of the Iranian leadership - there to march or die at
Tehran's behest - as well as, more recently, cannon fodder for Bashar
al-Assad's regime. With the United States intending to attack Syria for
the regime's use of chemical weapons in the Ghouta east and west of
Damascus, Hezbollah may again be placed at the forefront of a retaliatory
plan. Iranian parliamentarians have warned that any attack would provoke
a response against Israel. 'In case of a U.S. military strike against
Syria, the flames of outrage of the region's revolutionaries will point
toward the Zionist regime,' Mansur Haqiqatpur, an influential
parliamentarian said on Tuesday. Hossein Sheikholeslam, who heads the
Iranian parliament's international affairs committee, warned that 'the
first victim of an attack on Syria will be the Zionist regime.' Most
analysts, however, see such statements in the context of implicit red
lines set by the Iranian regime. They also note that threats made by
parliamentarians, even important ones, do not necessarily have the same
impact as those issued by senior security or political figures, perhaps
buying Iran a margin of maneuver. Iran's red line, evidently, is this: If
the United States limits its attacks both in time and scope and does not
undermine the Assad regime, then the Iranians will not retaliate, or ask
Hezbollah to retaliate. However, if American action takes longer than a
few days and is seen as tipping the balance in favor of the rebels, then
Iran and its allies will widen the war, most probably by firing rockets
at Israel." http://t.uani.com/14dFagz
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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