Thursday, September 26, 2013

Eye on Iran: The Nuclear Question Likely to be Key Issue in Iran-U.S. Talks







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LAT:
"After Secretary of State John F. Kerry sits down Thursday with his Iranian counterpart to start the highest level talks between the two nations in 34 years, negotiators for the two sides are likely to grapple with a highly sensitive issue: Can the mullahs in Tehran be trusted to enrich uranium - potential nuclear bomb fuel - to even low levels on their own soil? ... To advocates, including some current and former Obama administration officials, and some foreign governments, allowing Iran to enrich uranium for energy may be a face-saving way to curtail Iran's broader nuclear ambitions. The West suspects that Iran ultimately aims to build a nuclear weapon, a goal Iran has repeatedly denied. To skeptics, including the Israeli government and many in Congress, even enrichment of uranium to 5% purity - the level used for civil power plants - would amount to surrender. Iran, they believe, would require the West to ease punitive economic sanctions as part of any deal, and secretly move nuclear work into hidden sites until it reaches bomb-making capability... Gary Samore, who was also a member of Obama's small Iran team until February, said the United States doesn't have a clear policy on whether it would accept limited Iranian enrichment 'because the Iranians have never agreed to any limits.' As a result, administration officials 'have never really had to answer the question,' said Samore, now research chief at the Belfer Center at Harvard's Kennedy School." http://t.uani.com/1h4PahT

Reuters: "Iran's new government, stepping up a campaign to project a more moderate image abroad, said on Wednesday it wants to jump-start talks with world powers to resolve a decade-long dispute over its nuclear program and hoped for a deal in three to six months. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif is set to hold talks on the nuclear issue on Thursday with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry as well as diplomats from Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany, in a rare encounter between top American and Iranian officials. 'The only way forward is for a timeline to be inserted into the negotiations that's short,' new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was quoted as telling the Washington Post, through a translator, during a visit to New York, where he addressed the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday. 'The shorter it is, the more beneficial it is to everyone. If it's three months that would be Iran's choice, if it's six months that's still good. It's a question of months not years,' said Rouhani when asked for a time frame for resolving Iran's nuclear dispute with the West." http://t.uani.com/185gB9a

AP: "Foreign ministers from the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany will meet with Iran's top diplomat on Thursday to test the Islamic Republic's apparent willingness to reach a deal to resolve international concerns about its nuclear program after years of defiance. The meeting on the sidelines of the annual United Nations General Assembly is aimed at paving the way for the first round of substantive negotiations on the nuclear issue since April, probably next month. It will also mark the highest-level direct contact between the United States and Iran in six years as Secretary of State John Kerry comes face-to-face with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. The United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany will participate, with European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton serving as host of the meeting... Zarif is urging step-by-step compromises between his country and world powers to advance the negotiations. His remarks on Iran's state TV referred to 'phased actions' after reviving the stalled talks. He did not elaborate in his comments late Wednesday, but it is seen as a reference to gradual removal of sanctions by the West in return for a gradual decrease in Iran's nuclear activities, possibly uranium enrichment." http://t.uani.com/15wGRvy
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UN General Assembly

NYT: "As he conducts a high-profile good-will visit to New York this week, Iran's new president, Hassan Rouhani, says he is bringing a simple message of peace and friendship. But on Wednesday, Mr. Rouhani set off a political storm here and in Iran, with an acknowledgment and condemnation of the Holocaust that landed him in precisely the kind of tangled dispute he had hoped to avoid. Mr. Rouhani, in an interview on Tuesday with CNN, described the Holocaust as a 'crime that the Nazis committed towards the Jews' and called it 'reprehensible and condemnable.' It was a groundbreaking statement, given that his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, denied the systematic extermination of Jews during World War II. Mr. Rouhani largely repeated his comments in a meeting with news media executives on Wednesday. But a semiofficial Iranian news agency accused CNN of fabricating portions of Mr. Rouhani's interview, saying he had not used the word Holocaust or characterized the Nazi mass murder as 'reprehensible.' Mr. Rouhani spoke in Persian; officials at CNN said they used an interpreter provided by the Iranian government for the interview, which was conducted by Christiane Amanpour. The dispute over his comments reflects the extreme delicacy of the Holocaust as an issue in Iranian-American relations." http://t.uani.com/1b90TuY

Fox News: "The Iranian delegation may be pariahs inside the UN building, but they've found at least one friend during their visit to New York - Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan. Farrakhan and his entourage attended a dinner party hosted by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Tuesday night. Rouhani's dinner party was held on the second floor of the One UN Hotel, where the Iranian delegation is staying, and at the same time as President Obama's party at the Waldorf Astoria just blocks away. The private dinner party was held just hours after Rouhani's speech to the general assembly." http://t.uani.com/171Ojgt

Sanctions

WSJ: "The company that holds the multibillion-dollar Pentagon contract to supply U.S. forces in Afghanistan with food and water brought in supplies to build an Afghan warehouse through Iran, in a possible violation of U.S. sanctions. Anham FZCO used Iran's Bandar Abbas seaport last year to land equipment and building materials that were then transported across Iran, according to business executives involved in the process and corporate emails reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Completing the warehouse at Bagram military base near Kabul put Anham in position to win the Pentagon supply contract, which it did in June 2012. Anham, which the Journal asked about the matter about two weeks ago, said in a statement on Sunday that it 'has made a voluntary disclosure to the Treasury and Commerce Departments that some items were transshipped through Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/15vyxXs  

Human Rights

AP: "The ailing father of a former U.S. Marine imprisoned in Iran is pleading for the release of his son in a letter delivered Wednesday to Iranian President Hasan Rouhani, in New York to attend a meeting of world leaders. Ali Hekmati is asking Rouhani to order the release of his son, Amir, who was arrested in Iran in 2011. The family says Amir Hekmati, who has dual U.S. and Iranian citizenship, was visiting his grandmother. Iran accused him of being a CIA spy and convicted him. 'I long more than ever to see Amir's face. I am now very sick with a brain tumor,' Ali Hekmati wrote in the letter, which was delivered to Rouhani's delegation by an Islamic religious official from Michigan who has a personal relationship with the Iranian president, according to a representative for the family. 'I ask that you let me see him again, one more time, and so that he may lead our family when I am gone,' Hekmati wrote in his letter. 'Amir is a good man. An honorable man. He is not a spy, I can assure you of that.'" http://t.uani.com/16C2gNO

Fox News: "As his wife is in New York to fight for his freedom, a letter American pastor Saeed Abedini recently managed to get out of his Iranian jail cell and to his seven-year-old daughter for her birthday has come to light. He calls Rebekka his 'little hero' and expresses heartbreak about not seeing her grow. Rebekka's mom, Naghmeh, is unable to travel with their two young kids to Iran for fear she might also be arrested, but with the Iranian delegation in New York for the UN, she is pressing his case. This week, she traveled to New York and was able to hand-deliver a letter Monday to the delegation of Iran's new president asking for her husband's quick release. Abedini, 33, an American citizen who left his wife and children behind in their Boise home to travel to Iran last year, has been held in the notoriously brutal Evin prison for his Christian faith." http://t.uani.com/18rwnMt

Reuters: "Reformist former president Mohammad Khatami called for all political prisoners in Iran to be freed following a decision to pardon 80 people in an easing of the Islamic Republic's strict security policies. The pardons were in keeping with moderate President Hassan Rouhani's pledge to loosen a repressive security grip that Iranians say has been prevalent since the 2009 re-election of his hardline conservative predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In comments published on his official website, Mohammad Khatami, who was president from 1997 to 2005, welcomed the pardons announced on Monday but said they did not go far enough. 'I am happy about this news but I say why this number? I should say all, unless someone has truly committed a crime and has been found guilty in a competent court. Many of them haven't done anything; many of the charges were wrong,' Khatami said." http://t.uani.com/1eJIt8b

Foreign Affairs

Gallup: "In an address to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, President Barack Obama announced that he will pursue diplomatic options with Iran on its nuclear program. Despite the possibility of a thaw in relations, close to half of Americans, 45%, consider Iran an enemy and 38% 'unfriendly,' slightly more than thought so in 2000." http://t.uani.com/15wKHVo

Opinion & Analysis

Rep. Ed Royce & Rep. Eliot Engel in LAT: "Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's visit to the United Nations this week is being analyzed in excruciating detail for signs that the long-stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program can finally gain traction. What exactly did Rouhani mean when he talked about peace and moderation? The media blitz has been interesting, but what really matters is what Rouhani does with his first 100 days in office. Although a new leader's first 100 days is admittedly an arbitrary marker - the Iranian president's U.N. speech punctuated the halfway mark - in Rouhani's case, it will be a reasonable test of whether he can match his words with actions. Will Tehran show any willingness to end Iran's nuclear weapons program? For starters, Rouhani needs to make it crystal clear whether Iran is prepared to accept President Obama's long-standing offer to establish direct, substantive and meaningful negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Does he have the political courage to take this step? More important, does he have the abiding blessing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader? If we get to this point, Rouhani must bring something new and meaningful to the table. Until now, the Iranian negotiators have offered minimal nuclear concessions in exchange for maximum financial and oil sanctions relief. Since his election, the only nuclear-related action taken by Rouhani has been to announce that his foreign minister, Javad Zarif, a veteran Iranian diplomat known to many in the West, will represent the country in upcoming nuclear negotiations. It remains to be seen though how much authority Zarif will have. And neither Zarif nor Rouhani has shown a willingness to commit to a freeze in Iran's nuclear program, as called for in successive U.N. Security Council resolutions. Although the U.S. should engage in negotiations if the opportunity presents itself, we must make clear that, absent a concrete, comprehensive deal, Iran's economy will continue to suffer. The economic sanctions imposed on Iran over the last half-decade have shaken the government, and inarguably contributed to the Iranian people's discontent with hard-line rule. To show our seriousness, the Senate should pass and Obama should sign our comprehensive Iran sanctions legislation that overwhelmingly passed the House of Representatives in July. And we must continue to make clear that all options remain on the table to prevent Iran from achieving a nuclear weapons capability... By the end of Rouhani's 100 days - in mid-November - we will be in a better position to judge whether there truly is an opening for a workable diplomatic solution. The House Foreign Affairs Committee will hold a hearing as that approaches to assess this possibility." http://t.uani.com/16zovEa

Samia Nakhoul in Reuters: "In the photograph the two robed men stand shoulder-to-shoulder, one tall and erect, the other more heavyset. Both smile for the camera. The picture from Tehran is a rare record of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meeting Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shi'ite paramilitary group. Taken in April during a discreet visit by the Hezbollah chief to his financial and ideological masters, the photograph captured a turning point in Syria's civil war and the broader struggle between Sunnis and Shi'ites, the two main branches of Islam. It was the moment when Iran made public its desire for Hezbollah to join the battle to help save Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, diplomats said. At the time, Assad and his Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam, were losing ground to an advancing Sunni insurgency. Within days of returning home, Nasrallah gave a televised speech making it clear that Hezbollah would fight alongside Assad to prevent Syria falling 'into the hands' of Sunni jihadi radicals, the United States and Israel. The very survival of the Shi'ites was at stake, he said. Soon afterwards, fighters from Hezbollah - which until then had largely stayed out of its neighbour's civil war - entered Syria. In June they helped Assad's forces recapture the strategic town of Qusair and other territory, turning the war in Assad's favour. Regional security officials told Reuters there are now between 2,000 and 4,000 Hezbollah fighters, experts and reservists in Syria. One Lebanese security official said a central command in Iran led by the Revolutionary Guards directs Hezbollah operations in Syria in close coordination with the Syrian authorities. Another source said Hezbollah had 'hit squads' of highly trained fighters in Syria whose task is to assassinate military leaders among the Sunni rebels. Hezbollah declined to comment for this report on its involvement in Syria. Nasrallah has previously said it is necessary for Hezbollah to fight Sunni radicals allied to al Qaeda. Officials in Iran did not respond to requests for comment. Last week, Iran's foreign ministry spokeswoman, Marzieh Afkham, said that Iran had no official military presence in Syria, but was providing humanitarian assistance. Last September, Mohammad Ali Jafari, head of the Revolutionary Guards, said some members of Iran's elite Quds force were in Syria but that it did not constitute 'a military presence.' Hezbollah's role in Syria has ramifications not just in its home in Lebanon but across the region. If Assad wins, Iran's influence along the shores of the Mediterranean will grow. If he loses, Hezbollah and Iran's reach will likely be damaged. For some members of the group, the fight is an existential one. Reuters has learned that a few voices within Hezbollah, which is considered a terrorist organisation by the United States and Europe, opposed joining the conflict in Syria. Two prominent members feared intervention would drag Hezbollah and the Shi'ite community into a quagmire; they questioned where the group would draw the line after Qusair. Sheikh Subhi al-Tufayli, who led Hezbollah from 1989 to 1991, said the decision to intervene had been entirely down to the Islamic Republic of Iran. 'I was secretary general of the party and I know that the decision is Iranian, and the alternative would have been a confrontation with the Iranians,' Tufayli, who fell out with Iran and his former group, told Reuters at his home in the Eastern Bekaa Valley near the Syrian border. 'I know that the Lebanese in Hezbollah, and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah more than anyone, are not convinced about this war.' Such doubts are repeated across the Middle East. Shi'ite groups, clerics and communities in places such as Iraq are struggling with whether to back Assad or not. But the critical voices were ignored and eventually silenced. 'Even if (Hezbollah) has its wise men, the decision (to fight in Syria) is not theirs,' said a Lebanese security official who, like most people Reuters spoke to for this report, would not be named. 'The decision is for those who created and established it. They are obliged to follow Iran's orders.' A Lebanese politician summed up the point, saying: 'Nasrallah is not going to say No to someone who has given him $30 billion over the past 30 years.'" http://t.uani.com/1eJJVHE

Ray Takeyh in FT: "The public relations rollout of Hassan Rouhani can best be compared to the unveiling of a new iPhone by the late Steve Jobs. The Iranian president is placed at the centre of a media frenzy, with scores of interviews, receptions where the global elite can mingle with the latest curiosity from Tehran and, finally, a speech at a high-profile gathering. But Mr Rouhani's success abroad does not mitigate his problems at home. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader who holds the ultimate authority in the Islamic Republic, and his aggrieved Revolutionary Guard are wary of the new president. It is the domestic manoeuvres of these three parties that is likely to define the terms and limits of Mr Rouhani's diplomacy - particularly regarding Iran's nuclear programme. Shortly after the president was elected, the powerful Revolutionary Guard subtly conveyed its view. An article appeared on a website close to the elite corps suggesting that it would confront 'an emphasis on negotiating with America... and satisfying Europe and the White House'. It has long been known that the Guard oversees Iran's nuclear infrastructure and has a vested interest in the programme's survival. It was during Mr Rouhani's tenure from 2003 to 2005 as the nuclear negotiator that the programme was suspended, causing much resentment among those scenting the power of atomic weapons. Mr Rouhani's appointment of Ali Shamkhani - a longtime guardsman and an advocate of Iran's nuclear surge - as head of the Supreme National Security Council must have calmed nerves. The programme remains firmly with the SNSC despite official claims it has been transferred to the foreign ministry. Mr Shamkhani will devise the strategy while Mohammad Javad Zarif, the urbane, thoughtful foreign minister, will present it at any international talks. Events since the election have been particularly kind to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The supreme leader's foremost objectives are preservation of the regime's revolutionary identity and ensuring that resistance to the west remains the main of pillar of his republic. Before Mr Rouhani took office, Mr Khamenei was saddled with a fractured elite and an unsympathetic international community. All this has now changed; the Islamic Republic has now cobbled together a domestic political consensus, and its president is being praised at home and abroad. Mr Khamenei is likely to offer Mr Rouhani an opportunity to craft a nuclear settlement, but the terms have to be acceptable to the ever suspicious supreme leader and his Revolutionary Guard. Should the president succeed, commerce and contracts will return to Iran, ensuring the survival of the regime. Should he fail, a unified elite will try to persuade the Iranian populace that the cause of their hardship is American truculence. Putting aside the bickering and back-stabbing that has characterised Iran's politics in the past eight years, the Islamic Republic will try to fracture the international consensus on its nuclear programme. Either way, Mr Khamenei wins." http://t.uani.com/185juai

David Ignatius in WashPost: "The U.S.-Iranian diplomatic train is rolling fast, with President Hassan Rouhani talking Wednesday about a three-month timetable for a nuclear deal. But Rouhani was also cautiously insistent about staying on the single track of the nuclear issue - perhaps fearing that if this becomes a runaway, it will derail. It was a careful Rouhani who sat down for a one-on-one interview, following a lengthy session with several dozen journalists and news executives. He appeared wary of using chits he may need in the negotiations or of complicating the diplomacy by raising issues of normalization, such as reopening embassies in Tehran and Washington. Rouhani, wearing a white turban and his clerical robes, spoke slowly and deliberately; although he's fluent in English, he used a translator. As in other recent interviews, he wanted to show a new, moderate Iranian face - speaking at length with the larger group of journalists, for example, of the 'crimes' the Nazis committed against the Jews. This is a man who wants to 'make haste slowly,' as the Latin aphorism puts it. Here are some highlights from the interview." http://t.uani.com/1bIhFny

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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