Monday, March 3, 2014

Eye on Iran: Iran Advancing Its Nuclear Program Despite Pact with West








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USA Today: "Iran is moving ahead with a nuclear program that U.S. officials said would be frozen, and it is now clear the USA and other world powers are willing to accept an Iranian enrichment program that Iran refuses to abandon, say analysts. Iran has continued research and development on new, far more efficient machines for producing uranium fuel that could power reactors or bombs, and its stockpile of low enriched uranium has actually grown, according to a report by Institute for Science and International Security. The Iranian regime has also trumpeted recent tests of new ballistic missiles that could be used to deliver a future warhead while its pariah economy has begun a modest recovery. Analysts watching the movements say the U.S. easing of economic sanctions against Iran to induce it to make compromises on a long-term nuclear agreement may not be having the desired effect. 'If Iranians believe they can erode the sanctions without making additional nuclear concessions, then the improvement in the economy makes a comprehensive deal less likely,' said Gary Samore, a former principal arms control adviser to President Obama." http://t.uani.com/1n1sLqH

Politico: "As the world watches Russia's intervention in Ukraine, Congress wants to ensure Iran relations remain on the mind of President Barack Obama. Capitol Hill must have an outsize role to play in Iran no matter the result of ongoing nuclear talks, a bipartisan group of six senators say in a letter to Obama released Sunday by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Congress will need 'to rapidly and dramatically expand sanctions' against Iran if global negotiations to scale back the country's nuclear program fail, the senators said. And if Iran does agree to a permanent deal, the lawmakers said it will be up to them to offer long-term economic relief to Iran. 'We need to work together now to prepare for either eventuality,' the senators said. 'Iran must clearly understand the consequences of failing to reach an acceptable final agreement. We must signal unequivocally to Iran that rejecting negotiations and continuing its nuclear weapon program will lead to much more dramatic sanctions, including further limitations on Iran's exports of crude oil and petroleum products.' The letter is being led by Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.). Congressional sources expect more senators to join them by the time the letter arrives at the White House." http://t.uani.com/1i6SQWE

Bloomberg: "The U.S. is ready to impose additional sanctions on Iran if talks about limiting the nation's disputed nuclear activities collapse, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said. 'We have sent the very clear signal to the leadership in Tehran that if these talks do not succeed, then we are prepared to impose additional sanctions on Iran,' Lew said at the 2014 Policy Conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the biggest pro-Israel lobbying group, in Washington today. 'All options remain on the table to block Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.' ... 'You may hear some say that the very narrow relief in the interim agreement has unraveled the sanctions regime or eased the chokehold on Iran's economy,' Lew said today. 'Nothing could be further from the truth.' Iran will lose about $30 billion in oil sales alone from the sanctions that remain in place during the six-month period of relief, Lew said. 'As President Obama recently said, if anyone, anywhere engages in unauthorized economic activity with Tehran, the United States will -- and I quote -- come down on them like a ton of bricks,' Lew said." http://t.uani.com/1hYcShB
     
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Reuters: "Iran is reducing its most proliferation-prone nuclear stockpile as required by its landmark deal with world powers but much work remains to be done to resolve all concerns about Tehran's activities, the U.N. atomic watchdog chief said on Monday. Among measures Iran is taking since the interim agreement took effect on January 20 is the dilution of its stock of higher-enriched uranium to a fissile concentration less suitable for any attempt to fuel an atomic bomb. Yukiya Amano, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), indicated that Iran had made sufficient progress in this regard to receive a scheduled March 1 installment of $450 million out of a total of $4.2 billion in previously blocked overseas funds... 'As of today, measures agreed under the Joint Plan of Action are being implemented as planned,' Amano said, referring to the November 24 agreement struck in Geneva between Iran and the United States, Germany, France, Russia, China and Britain. These included 'the dilution of a proportion of Iran's inventory' of 20 percent uranium gas to a lower enrichment level, which 'has reached the halfway mark', he told the IAEA's 35-nation board, according to a copy of his speech... 'The measures implemented by Iran, and the further commitments it has undertaken, represent a positive step forward, but much remains to be done to resolve all outstanding issues,' the veteran Japanese diplomat said. He said clarification of all issues related to the possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program is 'essential.'" http://t.uani.com/1fCaVUD

AP: "Iran's president said the Islamic Republic has decided not to develop nuclear weapons out of principle, not only because it is prevented so by treaties. Hassan Rouhani told Defense Ministry officials Saturday that, if Iran wanted weapons of mass destruction, it would be easier for it to make chemical or biological weapons. Rouhani was reiterating a police set by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who issued a religious decree banning the production and use of nuclear weapons. He has said holding such arms is a sin as well as 'useless, harmful and dangerous.' 'We are not after weapons of mass destruction. That's our red line,' he said. 'If Iran was after weapons of mass destruction, it would build chemical weapons. Those are easier to make. It would build biological arms, which are even easier than making chemical weapons.'" http://t.uani.com/1i6WfEX

Sanctions Relief

Trend: "Spanish companies are willing to cooperate with Iran especially in the oil sector, Spain's Foreign Minister Jose Garcia Margallo said on March 2. 'We are making our utmost efforts to enhance ties with Iran,' he said. He made the remarks at a joint press conference with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Tehran. 'We seek to promote our ties with Iran,' Margallo said, adding that lifting of sanctions can facilitate relations with Iran." http://t.uani.com/1krh1PE

Haaretz: "The visit here [to Tehran] of Poland's foreign minister this past weekend came three months after Iran signed an interim nuclear deal with the international community in Geneva. 'Iran is an important partner for us. We hope that Tehran will find the way to convince the world that its nuclear program serves peaceful purposes and [that] the final agreement will be signed,' said Radoslaw Sikorski after meeting his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, in this city on Saturday... During their meeting, marking the first time a high-ranking Polish official has visited Iran in over a decade, the two ministers agreed to boost bilateral economic cooperation, mainly in the realms of pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals and the food industry. There are many branches of the economy which are not affected by the international sanctions, and Poland wants to take advantage of this, one diplomat explained, speaking off the record with journalists... Foreign Minister Sikorski also came with more than 20 business leaders, but their meetings in Tehran were cancelled after cutting short their visit due to the turmoil in Ukraine... Radoslaw Sikorski's visit on Saturday was widely publicized in the Iranian media in recent days. For one, the Polish ambassador to Tehran, Juliusz Gojlo, gave many interviews to local outlets. 'Poland has always tried to serve as a bridge between Iran and the European Union,' he said in an interview with The Tehran Times." http://t.uani.com/1n1AJA2

Trend: "The research department of Iran's Oil Ministry has signed a deal with Austrian AVL to develop energy saving projects in the Iranian oil industry, IRNA quoted the research department's head, Amir Abbas Hosseini as saying on March 1. The main part of the research department's activities is related to the export of technical and engineering services in the oil industry's upstream sector, he added." http://t.uani.com/NncD6r

Press TV (Iran): "Iran has called for Italian companies to participate in the implementation of the Islamic Republic's new projects in the mining industry sector. In a meeting with the board members of Italy's Fata industrial and engineering group in Tehran, Mehdi Karbasian, the head of the Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organization (IMIDRO), pointed to Tehran's plans to implement new projects in mining and metal industries, including aluminum, steel and copper, as well as other non-metal industries, calling for the presence of European, particularly Italian, firms in those projects. Chairman of the Fata Board of Directors Ignacio Moncada, for his part, said the company is keen to participate in aluminum and power plant projects in Iran, and called for the setting up of working groups to set the stage for cooperation in that area. On February 22, an Italian business delegation, headed by Chairman of the Italy-Iran Chamber of Commerce Rosario Alessandro, travelled to Iran on a four-day visit to explore investment opportunities in the Islamic Republic." http://t.uani.com/MIm6UE

Trend: "Chinese investment delegation has visited Iran to attend the groundbreaking ceremony for construction of an oil refinery in Chabahar Free Trade Zone in Iran's south eastern province of Sistan and Baluchestan, Iranian IRIB news agency reported on March 1. Chinese side holds 49 percent of Iranian-Chinese PetroChina Pars Company's share which has undertaken construction of the ultra-heavy oil refinery in Chabahar... The refinery's capacity will stand at 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) and will be able to conduct exports to China, Afghanistan and Pakistan." http://t.uani.com/1jM91WI

Human Rights

IHR: "The execution wave continues in Iran- 153 executions have been reported since the beginning of 2014. 82 of the executions have been reported by the official sources. Iran Human Rights (IHR) believes the execution numbers have reached beyond the alarming level and urges the international community to react... Seven people have been executed in the prison of Rasht (Northern Iran) during the past few days." http://t.uani.com/1gMWAau

IHR: "Four prisoners were hanged in Bandar Abbas (Capital of the province of Hormozgan, Southern Iran) early this morning, reported the Iranian state media. According to the official website of the Iranian Judiciary in Hormozgan, the four prisoners were convicted of armed drug trafficking of 966 kilograms of opium." http://t.uani.com/1cnGvv0

Domestic Politics

Reuters: "President Hassan Rouhani urged Iran's military leaders on Saturday to let diplomacy prevail in dealing with potential foreign threats, in a clear reference to efforts to end the nuclear dispute and decades of hostile relations with the West. 'It is very important to formulate one's sentences and speeches in a way that is not construed as threat, intention to strike a blow,' Rouhani said in a meeting with Iran's top military echelon. 'We must be very careful in our calculations. Launching missiles and staging military exercises to scare off the other side is not good deterrence, although a necessity in its proper place,' the official IRNA news agency quoted him as saying. 'A misfire could burst into flames and wreak havoc to everything.' ... 'Our forefathers primed us for the final epic battle,' said the chief commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad-Ali Jafari last month." http://t.uani.com/Nngwbh

AFP: "Iran will not be able to keep up forever its ban on legal access to Internet hubs such as Facebook, which has four million Iranian users, Culture Minister Ali Janati said Sunday... 'Four million Iranians are on Facebook, and we have restricted it,' said Janati. 'We cannot restrict the advance of (such technology) under the pretext of protecting Islamic values,' said the minister. Access to the popular social networking site -- along with others which Iranian authorities regard as un-Islamic, immoral or undermining the Islamic establishment -- is obstructed by a massive filtering mechanism. But tech-savvy Iranians have resorted to measures, known as anti-filters, to circumvent the restrictions. Janati drew a parallel with a ban on fax machines and video tapes and players imposed the 1979 Islamic revolution. 'If we look back, we see many of the actions we took after the revolution were ridiculous.'" http://t.uani.com/1hBrvJr

Opinion & Analysis

Yuval Steinitz in WashPost: "A final deal that allows Iran to retain centrifuges for uranium enrichment ultimately would allow the development of nuclear weapons in Iran, encourage a Sunni-Shiite arms race in the Middle East and weaken counterproliferation efforts worldwide. Iran already possesses ballistic missiles suited to carry nuclear warheads and advanced knowledge of weaponization. Given that the production of fissile material - whether by enriching uranium in centrifuges or extracting plutonium from nuclear reactors - is the principal stage in the process of making a nuclear weapon, acquiescing to Iranian enrichment is tantamount to legitimizing Iran's status on the nuclear threshold. Proposals for the final agreement to restrict the number of centrifuges are almost irrelevant. Even if Iran were forced to reduce its number of centrifuges to only 3,000, its stockpile of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent would allow the production of enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb within six months. If forced to start from scratch with 3,000 centrifuges, Iran could still produce enough fissile material to make a nuclear weapon within one year. The chances of Iran developing the bomb as a 'threshold country' are considerable: North Korea did so after signing a similar deal in 2007. Becoming a nuclear power was the ayatollahs' initial objective and the reason Tehran invested around $50 billion in this project. Yes, there are other countries on the nuclear threshold, but unlike Germany and Japan, Iran is unlikely to maintain its threshold status. The ayatollahs' regime poses a threat to its Sunni neighbors. Tehran calls for the annihilation of the Jewish state and sponsors terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, all of which sparks fear in other countries. Sooner or later, Tehran's anxiety over potential retaliatory actions against its regime, including its nuclear project, would increase pressures within Iran to dash toward a fait accompli nuclear weapon... Even if Iran kept its commitment to avoid the bomb, allowing it to retain centrifuges could have grave global implications. Should the final compromise include de facto recognition of Iran's 'right to enrich,' the international community would find it difficult to insist later that other problematic regimes concede that 'right.' Unfortunately, the interim agreement has already linked Iran's hypothetical future enrichment to its civilian 'practical needs.' Practical needs is interpreted mainly as enrichment needed to fuel nuclear power stations. Such a civilian purpose demands more centrifuges than are in Iran's inventory. In other words, it seems to allow for even more centrifuges than are militarily needed for the annual production of several nuclear bombs... More than 20 countries produce electricity in nuclear reactors, and dozens more are planning to do so. If Iran were ultimately allowed to enrich, how would the United States justify its demand that, say, Egypt, Jordan or South Korea eschew uranium enrichment for peaceful civilian purposes? How would U.S. officials argue that what the deal concedes to the ayatollahs' regime, after a decade of flagrant violations of six U.N. Security Council resolutions and their commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, is forbidden for more responsible countries? How could the United States cast greater legitimacy on the previously clandestine centrifuge facilities in Qom and Natanz than on those that would be aboveboard from the outset? Inevitably, multiple countries, including some rogue states, would insist on their own enrichment facilities. With centrifuges equally capable of enriching uranium for nuclear energy or nuclear bombs, such a deal might generate many new threshold states. Under such circumstances, local disputes or changes in government eventually would push some countries across the threshold. Ironically, a deal intended to prevent the nuclear armament of one dangerous country, Iran, could plant the seeds for the wholesale sprouting of many nuclear powers." http://t.uani.com/1cnJfZl

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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