Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Eye on Iran: Israeli Naval Raid Nabs Gaza-Bound Arms from Iran









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AP: "Israeli naval forces raided a ship in the Red Sea early Wednesday and seized dozens of advanced rockets from Iran destined for Palestinian militants in Gaza, the military said. The ship, the KLOS C, was carrying Syrian-made M-302 rockets and was intercepted more than 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) south of Israel off the coasts of Sudan and Eritrea, military spokesman Lt. Col. Peter Lerner told reporters. He said the M-302 rockets have a range of up to 100 miles (160 kilometers) and would have significantly improved the capabilities of Gaza militants, putting nearly all of Israel in their range. Previously, Gaza militants have only been able to reach about 50 miles (80 kilometers) into Israel with their homegrown M-75 missiles. The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah used M-302s in a 2006 war against Israel, the military said... The operation, codenamed 'Full Disclosure,' followed months of intelligence gathering. Lerner said the shipment originated in Syria. From there the weapons were flown to Iran and departed from the Bandar Abbas port. Lerner said the Iranians tried to 'obscure their tracks' by shipping first via Iraq and then out to sea. The shipment was destined for Sudan, from where it was to be moved overland through Egypt to Gaza, the army said. Israel says militants have used similar routes in the past." http://t.uani.com/1oqC6qI

Reuters: "Western powers pressed Iran on Wednesday to tackle suspicions that it may have worked on designing an atomic bomb and the United States said the issue would be central to the success of talks on a final settlement over Tehran's nuclear program. At a board meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Washington and the European Union underlined their support for the U.N. watchdog's efforts to investigate long-running allegations of possible nuclear arms research by Iran. The IAEA inquiry is separate from but complementary to higher-level political talks between Iran and six world powers aimed at a deal on the overall scope of Tehran's nuclear energy program to ensure it cannot be diverted into bombmaking. In potentially a significant advance for the IAEA's probe, Tehran agreed last month to address one of many topics the U.N. agency wants answers on - the development of fast-acting detonators with both military and civilian applications. But while this was welcomed by Western officials at the closed-door session of the IAEA's 35-nation governing board in Vienna, they made clear the Islamic Republic must do much more. The U.S. ambassador to the IAEA, Joseph Macmanus, said it remained critical for Iran to address substantively all international concerns about the so-called possible military dimensions (PMD) of the country's nuclear program. A 'satisfactory resolution of PMD issues will be critical to any long-term comprehensive solution to the Iranian nuclear issue,' Macmanus said, according to a copy of his statement. He later told reporters: 'It is a central element to this negotiation, and all parties recognize that.' The 28-nation European Union voiced a similar line in its statement: 'We urge Iran to cooperate fully with the agency regarding PMD issues, and to provide the agency with access to all people, documents and sites requested.'" http://t.uani.com/1cBIxC9

AP: "Iran's foreign minister pushed back Wednesday against calls for deeper cuts to its nuclear program. Mohammad Javad Zarif said the West 'cannot entertain illusions' of Iran completely ending its uranium enrichment program. Speaking in Tokyo, he also reiterated that his country is not going to give up finishing its heavy-water nuclear reactor. 'We're not going to close it. We're not going to dismantle it. We're not going to close or dismantle anything, that is our red line,' he told a news conference before meetings with the Japanese prime minister and foreign minister. 'But we will address proliferation concerns that people may have.' ... He also said Iran is eager to tap Japan's nuclear power technology and needs more than $100 billion in investment in its oil and gas industries and $75 billion in petrochemicals. Iran has one completed nuclear plant, built with Russia's help, and wants 19 more. 'We're negotiating with Russia on further construction of other nuclear power plants, but it's not an exclusive environment,' Zarif said. 'Certainly Japan can play a role.'" http://t.uani.com/1dr55ZQ
     
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

AFP: "EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton will travel to Iran this weekend, Iran's foreign ministry said Tuesday amid a thaw in Tehran's strained relations with the European bloc. Ashton is tasked with coordinating nuclear talks between Iran and world powers, which culminated in an elusive deal that was struck in November and put into force in January. 'Ms Ashton will arrive in Tehran on Saturday night,' Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said, quoted by the official IRNA news agency... Her trip -- which follows official visits by top diplomats from Italy, Sweden, Belgium and Spain -- will take her to Isfahan on Monday, according to Iranian media. European sources confirmed the trip, saying talks in Tehran would focus on international foreign policy issues of mutual concern. The last visit of an EU foreign policy chief to Tehran took place in 2008... Iran and the so-called P5+1 group of world powers will resume talks at experts level in Vienna on Wednesday, ahead of a March 17 meeting of political directors in the Austrian capital. 'In this round of expert-level talks, we will review the issues related to (uranium) enrichment as well as tackling the concerns about the Arak heavy water reactor,' Araqchi said." http://t.uani.com/1fHtg2A

WashPost: "Iran should face more intense pressure during international negotiations - and not be given further respite from sanctions - to force it to completely dismantle its nuclear program, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday. 'You know how you get that agreement from Iran? Not by relieving pressure but by adding pressure,' Netanyahu said in a speech to the annual policy conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has advocated imposing new economic sanctions on Iran during international nuclear negotiations... Netanyahu spent more than half of his annual AIPAC address on Iran, which he said was on the wrong side of the world's 'moral divide' and not to be trusted. He suggested that the administration and its negotiating partners - the P5+1 group including Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany - had been duped by Iran's new government, including 'its smiling president and its smooth-talking foreign minister.' 'But if you listen to their words, their soothing words,' he said, 'they don't square with Iran's aggressive actions.' Iranian long-range missiles, he said, 'can strike, right now or very soon, the Eastern Seaboard of the United States - Washington - and very soon after that, everywhere else in the United States.'" http://t.uani.com/NTWZzp

AP: "Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard on Wednesday said it had acquired missiles with multiple warheads, the latest armaments advance to be claimed by the Islamic Republic. At a ceremony Wednesday, Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan presented a delivery of four types of ballistic missiles - named Qiam, Qadr H1, Fateh-110 and Persian Gulf. The Qadr H1 and Qiam, he said, are equipped with multiple warheads, greatly boosting their destructive power. 'These missiles are able to hit and destroy enemy targets with precision, and they meet a variety of the armed forces' needs,' Dehghan said. 'The weapons have strengthened Iran's deterrence power and military might,' he added, in comments were posted on the Guard's website." http://t.uani.com/P0ddbo

Sanctions Relief

Reuters: "Japan made a second payment to Iran for crude imports under an interim nuclear deal on Wednesday, diplomatic sources told Reuters, as the West eases a year-long stranglehold on revenues that has crippled the Iranian economy. Japan, which became the first of Iran's oil buyers to make a payment to Iran last month, deposited $450 million in funds owed for oil imported from Iran in a Central Bank of Iran (CBI) account, according to the sources... Japan last month became the first of Iran's oil buyers to make a payment for crude imports under the deal, sources told Reuters, with one source confirming the amount of $550 million. According to the agreement, the second and third payment schedules were March 1 for $450 million and March 7 for $550 million." http://t.uani.com/1cu57lC

Sanctions Impact & Enforcement

ITWeb (South Africa): "MTN, Africa's largest cellular operator, is still in talks with US authorities on ways to repatriate R5.5 billion earned from its MTN Irancell operation. Funds from what is its second-largest operation have been blocked since early 2012, because of Washington's sanctions against Tehran. The sanctions were imposed as the US believed the country was developing a nuclear programme. MTN Group CEO Sifiso Dabengwa says there is US legislation that is difficult to get around. He explains this is related to the transfer of funds out of Iran, because it produces oil. 'When you negotiate with governments, you work at their pace.'" http://t.uani.com/1cBKI8G

Congressional Sanctions Debate

Reuters: "U.S. Senator Robert Menendez said on Tuesday he still sees his legislation to impose new sanctions on Iran as the best way to ensure that Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon and prevent military action over its nuclear program. In a speech to the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC, Menendez, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, expressed deep skepticism about Iran's intentions in current negotiations with world powers. 'I don't believe we will have sufficient time to effectively impose new sanctions before Iran could produce a nuclear weapon, leaving the West with only two options, a nuclear armed Iran or a military action,' Menendez said. 'I believe that we can prevent those being the only two options by the legislation that we have proposed with Senator (Mark) Kirk,' he said, to loud applause. Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, and Kirk, an Illinois Republican, were lead authors of a bill to impose new sanctions on Iran if international negotiations on a nuclear agreement falter... 'It is clear that only intense, punishing economic pressure influences Iranian leaders,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1jRonJs

Opinion & Analysis

Dennis Ross in TNR: "This week the President will see Prime Minister Netanyahu and while Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations will form the centerpiece of their discussions, Ukraine, Crimea, and Russian behavior will be a sub-text. Will Iran see in Russian behavior an example that international norms mean little? They certainly mean nothing in Syria. Will they welcome the potential for a crisis between the US and Russia assuming that this will permit them to exploit division within the Perm 5+1 in the negotiations? No doubt our need for a firm response on the Crimea and the possibility of fall-out on the Iranian issue will come up for discussion between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Israel's prime minister, like his Middle Eastern counterparts will favor a strong response on Crimea precisely because they are looking for signs that the U.S will exercise power and leadership. Regardless of how Iran may seek to exploit any divisions at this juncture, most leaders in the Middle East will take comfort from signs of American decisiveness in responding to what is seen as a Russian provocation. Many in the region now believe that the Russians (and the Iranians) act while we only warn. The answer is not for us to be mindless in responses and to make rash statements that we cannot fulfill. But it is to stake out meaningful positions and follow through on them. For now, the U.S. should be seen in mobilizing a broad set of political and economic sanctions-and material support for Ukraine. Helping Ukraine stabilize its economy will be a huge task but becomes all the more important now-and sacrifices may be far easier to justify now in Ukraine than at any other time. And, helping Ukraine will be one answer to the Russians and a reminder of US leadership, and that will be observed in the Middle East. Knowing the Saudis have concerns about our decisiveness at this point does not mean we cannot challenge them as well. They want us to do more to change the balance of power in Syria, and to counter the Iranians there and in the region. And, the Saudis-who so oppose what the Russians are doing in Syria-are doing very little practically to express that opposition. True, they will argue they cannot be a substitute for the United States, but this is hardly the time for the Saudis to be financing a $3 billion package of Russian arms for Egypt. Few things more clearly signal that the Russians pay no price with the Arabs for helping to sustain Assad's war crimes against Syrian civilians. Ironically, showing leadership now in our response to the Russian intervention in the Crimea is likely to get the attention of our friends in the Middle East. It cannot be a substitute for what we do in the Middle East but it can open a new conversation with the Saudis and others. One in which we focus on what we can both do in Syria; how we can both act to ensure that Egypt does not become a failed state; and what we do if there is a nuclear deal with Iran and what we do if there is not. But launching a new conversation will be far harder if the U.S. does not appear to come up with an effective strategy that imposes consequences for Putin's act of aggression against Ukraine." http://t.uani.com/1q66n1O

Valerie Lincy in IranWatch: "Last week, my organization received a call from a staff member on Capitol Hill who had an interesting question:  how much nuclear energy could Iran produce with its current stockpile of enriched uranium?  The staff member, like most journalists and even the public, was under the impression that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium might be sufficient for the generation of nuclear power.  That is not surprising; we have heard it said in many places that Iran could have a small enrichment program sufficient for nuclear power but not big enough to pose a weapon threat. Unfortunately, that is not true.  It is impossible to have an enrichment program for power that is smaller than an enrichment program for bombs. Let's consider what Iran has done.  Over the eight years that Iran has been enriching uranium, it has accumulated only enough to fuel a standard-size nuclear reactor for less than three months.  That is inconsequential from a nuclear energy perspective. But that same stockpile could fuel seven nuclear weapons.  The truth is, Iran's enrichment program today is far too small to be part of an energy program, but is perfectly adequate for making bombs. To repeat:  you can't have a small enrichment program for nuclear energy.  Such a thing does not exist.  An enrichment program for power is by its nature many times bigger than an enrichment program for bombs.  I will explain why in more detail in just a moment. But first, what is the status of Iran's nuclear program under the interim deal made last November? Iran has enough low-enriched uranium now to fuel 7 bombs, assuming the uranium is enriched the rest of the way to weapon-grade.  It is already two thirds of the way. Iran will keep this material under the deal.  It would probably take Iran at least 3 months to prepare a first bomb's worth of enriched uranium using this material, plus additional time to process it for placement in a weapon.  Of course, these numbers are only estimates... Iran also has a stockpile of higher-enriched uranium, which is already about nine-tenths of the way to weapons-grade.  The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that Iran has ceased production of this material and is converting its existing stocks to an oxide form that is difficult, but not impossible, to quickly prepare for use in a nuclear weapon.  Iran's suspension of higher-enriched uranium production represents the only real roll-back achieved by the interim deal... So, overall, we can see that the interim deal largely maintains the status quo. It is not a roll-back... In sum, the Iranian regime could emerge from the talks with its nuclear program intact, an economy spurred on by sanctions relief, a weakened international consensus on future restrictions, and reduced pressure on the Iranian leadership to negotiate for fear of domestic unrest. How can we avoid such an outcome?  Iran must be convinced that the cost of failing to reach a final deal that includes restrictions on its enrichment program would be high. 'Zero enrichment' isn't necessary; Iran can retain a token enrichment capability, but nothing more.  We must also break the association between Iran's enrichment program and nuclear energy, because any program large enough to fuel nuclear reactors would also give Iran an unacceptable nuclear break out capability.  Until we achieve these goals, we won't have removed the threat of an Iranian bomb." http://t.uani.com/1cBLYc6

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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