Eye on Iran: Enrichment Capacity Seen as Key Hurdle to Iran Deal

Join UANI           Top Stories Al-Monitor: "Despite the intentions of both sides, Iran and world powers will not be able to reach a final nuclear accord unless Iran lowers its expectations for the size of its enrichment program, non-proliferation experts in consultation with the parties warned. 'I think Iran genuinely wants a deal,' former State Department Iran non-proliferation advisor Robert Einhorn told Al-Monitor Wednesday. 'But it may not yet realize that it can't get one unless it is prepared to lower its sights on the enrichment capacity it will be allowed to have under an agreement,' Einhorn said. 'If a deal is to happen, Iran must make the strategic decision to forego a near-term breakout capability in the form of a sizable enrichment program,' Jofi Joseph, a former White House Iran non-proliferation advisor, said Wednesday. 'If it is prepared to do so, a deal can come together quickly this summer. If not, then an impasse will occur.'" http://t.uani.com/1nhc5iJ Reuters: "Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Thursday talks over Tehran's nuclear program had reached an important and tough juncture, but an agreement was still possible by a July deadline. The lack of progress in talks in Vienna that ended last week between Iran and United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany had raised doubts over the prospects for a breakthrough by the self-imposed July 20 deadline. 'I think the negotiations have reached a very important and sensitive and tough juncture,' Rouhani told a news conference through an English interpreter. He was speaking in Shanghai where he attended a regional summit this week and held talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. 'We cannot expect it to be resolved in just a couple of meetings, but we are not pessimistic about the final agreement. We still have time. We can achieve this. We can even do it by the deadline.' ... Rouhani said an early deal would benefit all but there was 'no rush' to finalize the talks. If the deadline was not met, the interim agreement could be extended for another six months, he said. 'The signs, the indications that we have been receiving in the past few days, are telling us that it is very likely that we can come to an agreement by the end of July,' he said. To reach a deal by the deadline will require good will on the part of the six countries opposite Iran at the negotiating table. In addition, 'some certain countries behind the scenes who want to create problems' should not be given a chance to 'sabotage' the talks, he said." http://t.uani.com/1tozoqd AFP: "Iran has agreed to address some of the many long-held allegations that it conducted research into making nuclear weapons before 2003 and possibly since, the UN atomic watchdog said Wednesday. The International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran, which ever having sought nuclear weapons, has undertaken to implement five new 'practical measures' by August 25. These included two steps related to what the IAEA calls the 'possible military dimensions' (PMD) of Iran's nuclear programme -- in other words efforts to design a nuclear bomb... One of the key elements in this sought-after deal would be Iran addressing the PMD allegations, which the IAEA set out in a major report in November 2011 and which it has been pressing Iran to answer ever since. That report said that the evidence it has been given, which it judges to be 'overall, credible', indicated that Iran 'has carried out activities that are relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device.' ... The first new PMD step is 'exchanging information' with the IAEA on allegations related to the initiation of high explosives, 'including the conduct of large-scale high explosives experimentation in Iran', the IAEA said Wednesday. The second is Iran providing 'mutually agreed relevant information and explanations related to studies made and/or papers published in Iran in relation to neutron transport and associated modelling and calculations and their alleged application to compressed materials.'" http://t.uani.com/1toyTMU         Nuclear Program & Negotiations Al-Monitor: "The lead House sponsor of legislation allowing Congress to express its 'disapproval' of a final nuclear agreement with Iran vowed May 20 to introduce the language as a stand-alone bill after being barred from offering it as an amendment to the defense authorization bill. Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz., is expected to introduce the bill as early as next week, a House aide told Al-Monitor. The House Armed Services Committee member had offered it as an amendment to the annual defense bill currently being debated in the House, but the Rules Committee chaired by Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, ruled it out of order on the night of May 20. 'We are running out of time [to weigh in],' the aide said, pointing out that the negotiations are supposed to wrap up by July 20... The legislation would give the administration three days to turn over a final agreement with Iran to Congress for review. Lawmakers would then have 15 days to hold hearings and introduce a non-binding 'resolution of disapproval,' if they so choose." http://t.uani.com/1oVMMT4 Reuters: "Russia could sign an agreement this year to build eight new reactors for nuclear power plants in Iran, state-run Russian news agency RIA reported on Thursday, citing a source it did not identify. Russia built Iran's only operating nuclear power reactor, at the Bushehr plant." http://t.uani.com/1oVM5ch Al-Monitor: "The spokesman for the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee said that the latest round of nuclear negotiations revealed 'intense disagreements' over a variety of issues, including enrichment, Iran's missiles and even the proposed methods of lifting sanctions, which would take into consideration human rights issues. In what was described as the first part of a series of long interviews, Seyed Hossein Naghavi Hosseini spoke to Tasnim News Agency about the progress of the latest nuclear talks... Naghavi Hosseini said that one of the points of contention was that 'The West discussed our defense systems and our missiles, while from the beginning we said that this is not negotiable, but they are still insisting on this point.' He added that another difference, 'The West has issues with the number and quality of our centrifuges and even has issues with the number of centrifuges at each site. ... The West even has problems with our research and development.' Another point of contention is the manner in which sanctions are to be lifted. According to Naghavi Hosseini, the West did not want to immediately lift the sanctions but wanted to do so gradually after the final agreement was signed." http://t.uani.com/SnlR4S Syria Conflict WSJ: "Some Afghan lawmakers condemned what they said was Iran's exploitation of Afghan refugees by sending them to fight for the regime in Syria and called on the government to investigate. The outcry in parliament this week came in response to The Wall Street Journal's May 15 article that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, has been recruiting thousands of Afghan refugees to fight, offering them $500 a month, Iranian residency and other incentives. In a discussion in the legislature on Sunday, parliament speaker Fazel Hadi Mosleymyar said: 'This is really a sad event. Afghanistan's government has to find a solution. They take advantage of their [refugees'] poverty and send them to Syria to die.' Afghanistan has asked its embassy in Iran to investigate. The parliament plans to summon the minister of refugees, the foreign minister and a United Nations refugee agency representative to answer questions, said Jamahir Anwari, the minister for refugees. Mr. Anwari said he has already appeared before one parliament committee since the story came out. An Iranian foreign ministry spokeswoman, Marzieh Afkham, said in a news conference on Wednesday that the Journal's article was 'baseless' and accused the newspaper of instigating tension between Afghanistan and Iran. 'The defeat of warmongers in Syria has forced them to spread lies and provoke the people in our neighboring country Afghanistan,' she said, according to Iranian media." http://t.uani.com/TxJrwO Human Rights Reuters: "Six Iranians arrested for appearing in a video singing along to an American pop song were released on Wednesday, one day after being detained for what police called their 'obscene' behaviour, one of them said in an online posting. In the clip, the three women and three men dance and lip synch to Pharrell Williams' 'Happy', imitating the official video of the international hit. The women are not wearing headscarves, as demanded by Iran's Islamic law... Pharrell Williams himself criticised the arrests. 'It's beyond sad these kids were arrested for trying to spread happiness,' he tweeted on Tuesday... 'Hi, I'm back, thank you @pharrell and everyone who cared about us,' Reihane Taravati wrote on her Instagram account. 'Love you all so much and missed you so much.' However, the New York-based International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran said the video's director, Sassan Soleimani, was still being detained and it quoted a source close to the family of one of those arrested as saying they had been told they would be prosecuted." http://t.uani.com/1i7MeC6 Opinion & Analysis Avner Golov & Uri Sadot in TNI: "The past seventy years have taught Americans that nuclear weapons can promote stability, but Israel learned a different lesson. While scholars and policy makers in Western capitals contemplate containment scenarios in Iran, Israeli leaders defiantly state: before containment, we will choose preemption. For containment advocates, Israel's insistence seems combative and hegemonic. Astute scholars such as Robert Jervis argue that a nuclear Iran might not be disastrous at all, and if handled correctly, may even stabilize the region. After all, North Korea became nuclear, and no nuclear arms race or war has resulted. A nuclear standoff between Israel and Iran, the line goes, would instill more caution into these regional rivals, as has happened between India and Pakistan or the two Cold War superpowers. But in Israel, a different history was written. In their region, the Cold War wasn't cold at all, but rather an era of bloody proxy wars against Soviet-backed Arab countries. Regardless, Israelis are predisposed to believe that their enemies are irrationally bent on destroying the Jewish state, even at the face of nuclear retaliation. For Israelis, their country is too small to comply with existing mutual-deterrence models, because only two or three bombs are what it would take to wipe out their entire country. Nuclear deterrence theory requires a 'stable nuclear dyad'. But Israelis see themselves as faced with not a single enemy that can be deterred, but rather with a broad league of states and nonstate entities who are out to get them. Such a quantitative asymmetry, Israeli doctrine goes, can only be balanced by securing an overwhelming qualitative advantage. A nuclear-capable Iran, from that perspective, would unravel the existing balance and would leave Israel defenseless against various types of provocation... The risk that the positive American experience with containment will not repeat itself in the Middle East is great. Ironically, by opting for containment, America may increase the incentives for both Israel and Iran to take greater risks. For Americans who believe their national interest is better served by containment of a nuclear Iran than by its preemption, it would be prudent to adapt their strategy to the context of the Middle Eastern. The geographical disparity between Israel and its rivals could be eliminated by stationing a permanent American military presence in Israel, backed by a nuclear umbrella. In the same vein, a reinforcement of Israel's 'second strike' capabilities would further eliminate disparities caused by the geographic and demographic gap. Another option would be to establish an American-Israeli security treaty, which would reduce the appeal to Iranian hardliners of forming a countering coalition against Israel. In sum, those who call for containment of a nuclear Iran should think carefully on what a transition to such a reality might actually entail. If the ultimate American interest in the region is stability-and to avoid another Middle Eastern war-opting for an American policy of containment may, ironically, produce the diametrically opposed result." http://t.uani.com/1jafCad Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.