Eye on Iran: Iran's Oil Exports Turn Higher in May

Join UANI           Top Stories Reuters: "Iran's crude oil exports increased in May after a decline in April, according to sources who track tanker movements, moving above the level allowed by November's interim deal on curbing Tehran's nuclear programme. The increase, which appears to be led by higher sales to China in particular, could revive concerns in Washington that a softening of sanctions has given Tehran's economy a bigger boost than planned. Iran's exports have averaged 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, one of the sources said. That represents an increase from 1.1 million bpd in April, as estimated by the Paris-based International Energy Agency. 'Overall exports have increased in May,' the source said. 'We have seen more vessels paying visits to Turkey. China has increased imports this month.' A second source, who also tracks Iranian exports, also noted that loading data pointed to a rise in Iranian shipments in May, including robust shipments to China. 'Exports are up, and China does not seem to be listening to the sanctions,' the source said. China's crude imports from Iran more than doubled in April against the same month last year to a record of nearly 800,000 bpd, Chinese customs data showed last week." http://t.uani.com/1lXrRbY Reuters: "In an unprecedented, three-year cyber espionage campaign, Iranian hackers created false social networking accounts and a bogus news website to spy on military and political leaders in the United States, Israel and other countries, a cyber intelligence firm said on Thursday. ISight Partners, which uncovered the operation, said the targets include a four-star U.S. Navy admiral, U.S. lawmakers and ambassadors, and personnel from Afghanistan, Britain, Iraq, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Syria.  The firm declined to identify victims and said it could not say what data had been stolen by the hackers, who were seeking credentials to access government and corporate networks, as well as intelligence on weapons systems and diplomatic negotiations. 'If it's been going on for so long, clearly they have had success,' iSight Executive Vice President Tiffany Jones told Reuters. The privately held company is based in Dallas, Texas and provides intelligence on cyber threats. ISight dubbed the operation 'Newscaster' because it said the Iranian hackers created six 'personas' who appeared to work for a fake news site, NewsOnAir.org, which used content from the Associated Press, BBC, Reuters and other media outlets. The hackers created another eight personas who purported to work for defense contractors and other organizations, iSight said. The hackers set up false accounts on Facebook and other social networks for these 14 personas, populated profiles with fictitious personal content, and then tried to befriend targets, according to iSight." http://t.uani.com/SXXHhP ITAR-TASS: "Iran and Russia have agreed to continue nuclear cooperation, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) says. The AEOI spokesperson Behrouz Kamalvandi made a statement to this effect on Thursday. 'Iran and Russia have decided to build two more nuclear power plants in Bushehr,' he said. The capacity of each facility will reach 1,000 MW, Kamalvandi added. According to Iranian officials, the construction of two units may start this year. Russia and Iran reached a preliminary agreement on the project on March 12." http://t.uani.com/RKp8dG     Nuclear Program & Negotiations Reuters: "Iran is planning to start up a plant in June that will convert low-enriched uranium gas into an oxide form less suitable for making nuclear bombs, as required by a landmark deal with world powers, diplomats said. Under last year's interim accord with six major powers to help ease tension over Iran's nuclear program, it needs to take action by late July to limit its stockpile of uranium gas refined to a fissile concentration of up to 5 percent... In its report, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said the commissioning of the conversion plant near the central city of Isfahan - final tests that were originally due last year - had now begun. Asked at a technical briefing for diplomats earlier this week when it was expected to begin operating, a senior IAEA official said the launch was planned for the second half of June, according to people who attended the closed-door meeting. 'From what I hear that still allows for all the (conversion) work to be done by mid-July,' one Western envoy said. The IAEA report said Iran had transferred 4.3 tonnes of low-grade uranium gas to the Isfahan site from its Natanz enrichment plant, in a possible sign that it was preparing to start conversion into oxide powder in the near future. Because of the conversion facility's delay, the low-grade uranium stockpile has grown to nearly 8.5 tonnes in May from 7.6 tonnes in February, according to the IAEA report." http://t.uani.com/1izemOw Sanctions Impact & Enforcement WSJ: "BNP Paribas SA shares opened sharply lower Friday, as investors reacted negatively to the prospect of the bank facing more than $10 billion in fines to settle allegations it skirted U.S. sanctions... The push to secure a high-dollar penalty, along with a guilty plea from BNP, stems in part from what prosecutors viewed as the bank's longtime flouting of U.S. economic sanctions against Iran, Sudan and other countries, the people said." http://t.uani.com/RKjxUP Syria Conflict AFP: "Iran said Friday that next week's presidential election in Syria, branded a farce by Western governments, will boost the legitimacy of its ally Bashar al-Assad. 'God willing, the elections in Syria will be carried out without a hitch,' said Ali Akbar Velayati, the senior foreign policy adviser to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 'This election will strengthen the legitimacy of the Bashar government... as his people have realised he has prevented Syria from disintegrating or falling to occupation,' Velayati told the official IRNA news agency. Iran has been a staunch ally of the Syrian leader throughout the uprising against his rule that erupted in March 2011." http://t.uani.com/TZUhvN Human Rights NYT: "Sassan Soleimani, the director of 'Happy in Tehran,' a viral YouTube tribute to Pharrell Williams that offended Iran's conservative judiciary, was released on bail Thursday, according to the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, a New York-based advocacy group. Evidence of the director's freedom, after nine days in custody, came in the form of a self-portrait he sent to Kambiz Hosseini, a popular expatriate satirist whose Jon Stewart-like riffs on current events reach Iranians via the Internet or on satellite channels financed by the United States government." http://t.uani.com/1myQpJT Domestic Politics Al-Monitor: "A member of the Iranian Parliament's special investigate committee has warned against public disclosure of the ongoing investigation into corruption under former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's administration, saying that making the details of the violations public could harm the country and public trust, which he described as 'under restoration.' The 'corruption is so big that we are scared it could cause social shock,' committee member Gholamali Jafarzadeh told Payam-e No May 3. 'The dimensions of corruption in the cases at the investigation committee are so high that we are scared that if they become public it would cause trauma to the system,' he continued. The popular website Tabnak picked up the interview May 27, and the story went viral on Twitter and Facebook. One of the more distressing sources of corruption, according to Jaffarzadeh, involved the Foundation for Martyrs. He asked, 'How could some within the administration take advantage, with complete awareness, of the families of martyrs and veterans? Now when the wages of a class who, in the words of Imam [former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini], are the most supreme in society, are robbed, see for yourself what was going on in other fields.'" http://t.uani.com/1tWzpBS Foreign Affairs Reuters: "Sudan turned down an Iranian offer to set up air defences on its Red Sea coast after a 2012 air strike Khartoum blamed on Israel, fearing they would upset Iran's regional rival Saudi Arabia, Sudan's foreign minister was quoted as saying on Thursday. In an interview with the Saudi-owned al-Hayat newspaper that seemed aimed at improving frosty ties with Riyadh, Ali Karti played down Khartoum's links to Iran and to the Muslim Brotherhood, which is outlawed in Saudi Arabia. 'Iran, in truth, offered to set up air defence platforms on the Western coast of the Red Sea after the latest Israel raid, but Sudan rejected that because this would require Iranian arms experts (on the ground),' Karti said during a recent visit to Saudi Arabia, al Hayat reported. 'We rejected that because it is an Iranian presence against Saudi Arabia, something which we do not accept,' he added." http://t.uani.com/1lXqTMM Opinion & Analysis Gabriel Scheinmann in TNI: "Fifty years ago, the CIA produced a Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE) on China's nuclear weapons program for President Lyndon Johnson. Overhead photography taken three weeks earlier revealed that a Chinese installation in Lop Nor was definitively a nuclear test site and would come online in two months. However, the CIA estimated, China would not have the necessary amount of fissionable material, which the United States assumed would come from a small plutonium reactor at Baotou, until mid-1965. Seeking to make sense of the conflicting timelines, the CIA began to speculate: perhaps the Soviets had transferred additional fissionable material, perhaps the CIA was unaware of other enrichment sites, or, perhaps, as is often the case in large undertakings, progress among the different elements of China's nuclear program had merely become uneven. In conclusion, the SNIE reads, the available facts 'do not permit a very confident estimate of the chances of a Chinese Communist nuclear detonation in the next few months. Clearly the possibility of such a detonation before the end of the year cannot be ruled out-the test may occur during this period. On balance, however, we believe that it will not occur until sometime after the end of 1964.' Seven weeks later, China tested its first nuclear bomb on October 16, 1964, a highly enriched uranium implosion device. Fifty year later, it is this assessment that could land on President Obama's desk with regards to Iran's nuclear program and it is this assessment that strikes fear in America's Middle Eastern allies. Israelis and Arabs alike worry that by the time America is certain that Iran is within reach of possessing a nuclear weapon, Washington's ability or willingness to stop it will be out of reach. Despite clear evidence of a Chinese test site in its final stages, the CIA did not believe Beijing had enough weapons-grade plutonium and, therefore, still assessed that any test was close to a year away. The SNIE, in the words of former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, had too many 'known unknowns' in its nuclear picture and the Johnson Administration did what it thought was reasonable and responsible: nothing. American allies fear the Obama Administration will similarly let Iran go nuclear due to a lack of certainty. Not once has the American intelligence community accurately predicted when hostile states have gone nuclear and not once has an American president used military force to stop them from doing so... Intelligence gathering about purposefully secretive nuclear programs of American enemies is a Sisyphean endeavor. In fact, the major Iranian nuclear facilities of Natanz, Arak, and Fordow were discovered only belatedly by Western intelligence. Blaming the intelligence community and its faulty predictions for instances of nuclear detonation is like blaming the bookie for the race results. While the CIA and others can seek to bound the 'known unknowns', it is the president's responsibility to decide whether and how to act." http://t.uani.com/1izkMx2 Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.