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AFP:
"An influential Iranian general who has reportedly been near the
front line against the Islamic State group was quoted Thursday saying the
jihadists are 'nearing the end of their lives'. General Qassem Suleimani,
the once rarely seen commander of the powerful Quds Force, has become the
public face of Iran's support for the Iraqi and Syrian governments
against jihadists... 'Considering the heavy defeats suffered by Daesh and
other terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria, we are certain these groups are
nearing the end of their lives,' Suleimani was quoted as saying by the
semi-official Fars news agency, using an Arabic acronym for IS. His
extremely rare published remarks came in a speech made Wednesday in his
home province Kerman to mark the 36th anniversary of Iran's Islamic
revolution. Suleimani also said Tehran's regional influence was growing.
'Today we see signs of the Islamic revolution being exported throughout
the region, from Bahrain to Iraq and from Syria to Yemen and North
Africa,' he said. 'The arrogants and Zionists have admitted, more than
before, to their own weakness and to the Islamic republic's power,
following their successive defeats,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1AvLZxx
Radio Zamaneh:
"The Russian Ambassador to Iran says all preparations for the
construction of a second nuclear power station in Bushehr are on track
and the construction will commence in the fall of 2015. Levan Jagarian
told Interfax: 'The construction project of the Bushehr 2 nuclear power
plant will proceed according to schedule.' He added that there are no
foreseeable delays at this time and the project is on track. Behrooz
Kamalvandi, the spokesman for Iran's Atomic Agency, reported in July on
agreements with Russia to build two power plants in Bushehr. The Russian
company Rusatom and Iran's Atomic Agency signed a deal in November for
the construction of two more power plants, with the possibility of
increasing that to four power plants at other sites in the country.
According to the agreement, fuel for the power generators is to be
provided by Rusatom, which will also take care of reprocessing, storage
and its return to Russia." http://t.uani.com/1ywDywl
AFP:
"Intelligence Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz warned Thursday that
Israel could act unilaterally against Iran over its nuclear drive, saying
Tehran has failed to make concessions in talks with world powers. 'I
won't be too specific but all options are still on the table,' Steinitz told
reporters. 'We never limited Israel's right of self-defence because of
some diplomatic constraints,' he said... Steinitz said Iran has so far
shown little or no flexibility on key issues such as uranium enrichment,
destruction of related infrastructure and the fate of its Arak nuclear
reactor and Fordow secret underground enrichment facility. 'Its' a gloomy
picture,' said Steinitz, adding that he discussed it at last week's
security conference in Munich with International Atomic Energy Agency
chief Yukiya Amano. 'The Iranians didn't move much... therefore we are so
disturbed,' he said. Steinitz said the agreement being thrashed out was
'full of loopholes.'" http://t.uani.com/1D3E3Fu
Sanctions Relief
Press TV (Iran):
"Iran earned more than $2.3 billion from sales of oil products in
the 10 months to January as the country is applying innovative methods to
sidestep US-led sanctions. Sales of fuel oil rose 30% to $1.35 billion
from the same period a year ago, head of the commercial department of
National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company (NIOPDC) Mohammad Reza
Mazloumi said. Gas oil sales also generated Iran $963 million during the
period, he said. NIOPDC projects its sales of fuel oil will hit 4 million
tons by the end of the Iranian year in March 20, having sold more than 3
million tons in the first 10 months. Sales of oil products offer a
lifeline in the face of a double whammy of US-led sanctions and oil price
swings." http://t.uani.com/1Coun3a
Sanctions Enforcement
& Impact
Reuters:
"European Union governments agreed on Thursday to put the National
Iranian Tanker Company (NITC), Iran's biggest tanker firm, back on a list
of sanctioned firms. The EU's second-highest court ruled last July there
were no grounds to blacklist the NITC after it contested the designation,
but the EU moved to re-impose sanctions on tighter legal grounds. The
decision to put the tanker firm back on the sanctions list was taken by
an EU working group on Thursday. The regulation will be published in the
EU's Official Journal on Saturday. NITC - a major transporter of Iran's
oil - contested the EU's original blacklisting last year, arguing that
the firm is privately owned by Iranian pension funds. It has denied any
links with the Iranian government or with the Revolutionary Guards... The
EU has also decided to re-impose sanctions on Iranian businessman Gholam
Golparvar, who, the EU says, has links to Islamic Republic of Iran
Shipping Lines, Iran's top cargo shipping group, EU documents showed."
http://t.uani.com/1E7tazG
Iraq Crisis
WSJ:
"Numbering some 100,000 fighters and officially known as Hashed al
Shaabi, or 'popular mobilization,' the Shiite militias are viewed as an
alien occupation army or worse by many Iraqi Sunnis. With their Iranian
backing and sectarian agenda, they have committed plenty of atrocities of
their own-and are a reason why many Sunnis embraced Islamic State's cause
in the first place. 'They are criminals just like Islamic State,' said
Faleh al Issawi, the deputy chairman of the Anbar provincial council.
'Both kill innocent Muslims.' ... Despite all the talk of protecting the
Sunnis, at the Badr militia's company base nearby, there was no pretense
about its sectarian nature. Portraits of revolutionary Iran's supreme leaders
Ruhollah Khomeini and Ali Khamenei festooned the walls. One of the Badr
fighters performed a song praising Iran's Revolutionary Guards and
Lebanon's Hezbollah, and promising to 'break the nose' of Sunni Saudi
Arabia, as others, ranging from pot-bellied grandfathers to skinny
15-year-olds, danced waving their guns." http://t.uani.com/1AiQn4y
Human Rights
WashPost:
"Iranian prison authorities have allowed jailed Washington Post
reporter Jason Rezaian to get outside medical treatment and receive some
care packages in recent weeks amid a groundswell of signatures on an
online petition urging his release. Ali Rezaian, the imprisoned
reporter's brother, said Thursday in an interview that his sibling
briefly left prison twice recently to see specialists who prescribed
antibiotics for infections in his eye and groin area. 'He's feeling
better,' said Ali Rezaian, who noted that the infections went untreated
for more than a month. 'But as a result of the delayed treatment, it's
harder for him to recover.' ... Meanwhile, a burgeoning online petition
drive has collected signatures from people in more than 70 countries
asking Iran to immediately set Rezaian free. The petition on Change.org
has collected more than 100,000 signatures, a dramatic rise from less than
10,000 just a few weeks ago." http://t.uani.com/1ywvhIC
AP:
"An Iranian Kurdish man who was arrested when he was 17 years old
and alleges he was tortured into confessing has been informed he will be
hanged next week, rights group Amnesty International said Friday. The
London-based group is urging Iranian authorities to immediately halt the
execution of the man, Saman Naseem, who is now 22, and thoroughly review
his case. 'Imposing the death penalty on someone who was a child when the
alleged crime took place goes against international human rights laws
that Iran has committed to respect,' the group's deputy director for the
Middle East, Hassiba Hadj Sahraoui, said in a statement... In a letter
seen by the rights group, Naseem alleged that he was held in a cell
measuring 2 meters (yards) by half a meter. He says he was repeatedly
beaten and suspended by his hands and feet before being forced while
blindfolded to put his fingerprints on documents to confirm his alleged
confession. He then appeared in a televised confession and in January
2012 was sentenced to death following a conviction for 'enmity against
God' and 'corruption on earth' over his supposed involvement with the
Kurdish armed group. He later retracted his confession at trial, noting
his torture claims, and his lawyers have not been allowed to pursue his
defense, according to Amnesty." http://t.uani.com/1F5CPdF
Guardian:
"An Iranian poet who translated the prize-winning French graphic
novel Blue Is the Warmest Colour into Persian has claimed she is the
target of a smear campaign in Iran for supporting homosexuality,
punishable in the country by 100 lashes or even death. A group of
hardline Iranian news websites have attempted to discredit Sepideh
Jodeyri for the Persian translation of Julie Maroh's 2010 graphic novel,
about a lesbian romance between two young women in France. The film
adaptation of Blue is the Warmest Colour won the Palme d'Or at the Cannes
film festival in 2013. Aviny Film, a conservative website, said
homosexuality was a 'new plague in the west'. It added: 'Jodeyri has
spoken in support of homosexuality ... how can we let such a person
publish other works for readers in Iran?' ... 'I've been declared persona
non grata in my own country,' Jodeyri said. 'An event organised [in Tehran]
for my recent poetry collection And Etc was cancelled, the organiser was
sacked from his job, my publisher was threatened with having his licence
suspended and interviews were withdrawn, all because of the negative
publicity in the conservative media around my translation of Maroh's
book.'" http://t.uani.com/1zAl2Dg
Domestic
Politics
FT:
"The fertile Hamoun wetlands on Iran's border with Afghanistan have
a long history. They supported a sophisticated culture in ancient times
where, according to legend, Zoroastrianism originated. The verdant
landscape was the setting for the epic Persian poem, the Shahnameh. But
it has taken just a few years to turn the 5,660 sq km area into an
ecological disaster. Its once teeming waters are now reduced to a cracked,
dust-covered expanse dotted with abandoned boats. State mismanagement, 15
years of drought and the building of dams in neighbouring Afghanistan are
blamed for the disappearance of the waters, leaving the local population,
who for generations lived on fishing, cattle breeding and hunting, with
no source of income... The dried up wetlands are not only harming the
local economy but are also creating dust storms and a choking haze in
many parts of the country, contributing to respiratory disease, cancer
and even depression." http://t.uani.com/1FGYhmX
AP:
"Iran is breaking bad. Officials say methamphetamine production and
abuse of hard drugs are skyrocketing in the country despite potentially
lethal criminal penalties for users if they are caught. The increase is
partly because Iran is the main gateway for the region's top drug
exporter, Afghanistan - and partly because Iranian dealers are profiting
so handsomely... Anti-narcotics and medical officials say more than 2.2
million of Iran's 80 million citizens already are addicted to illegal
drugs, including 1.3 million on registered treatment programs. They say
the numbers keep rising annually, even though use of the death penalty
against convicted smugglers has increased, too, and now accounts for more
than nine of every 10 executions." http://t.uani.com/1E7rTbV
Foreign Affairs
Haaretz:
"A joint offensive by the Assad regime, Hezbollah and advisers from
Iranian Revolutionary Guards in southern Syria has registered some early
successes, as regime forces were apparently able to retake several
villages and towns from the rebel groups, which are led by the
Al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front... Hezbollah and Iran, which had previously
denied their presence on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, admit it
now, following the January 18 operation, attributed to Israel, that
killed six Hezbollah operatives and a general of the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards. Now they say their activity in the Golan has a dual
purpose - to help Assad remove the rebels from the border, and to challenge
Israel by opening another front of 'resistance' along the Syrian border,
in response to acts of aggression that they and Syria attribute to Israel
in Syrian and Lebanese territory." http://t.uani.com/1vqwGA4
Opinion &
Analysis
Dennis Ross in
Washington Jewish Week: "Israel views the Iranian
nuclear issue in tandem with Tehran's activism in the region. It also
believes that overlooking said activism could lead Tehran to
miscalculate. Israel and many Arab countries have expressed great concern
that the United States' current administration is giving Iran a pass and
seems ready to treat the Islamic Republic as a future regional partner.
In the meantime, Tehran is actively trying to change the regional balance
of power while transferring increasingly accurate missiles to Hezbollah.
The United States and Israel hold conceptually different perspectives on
the nuclear issue. While Israel has officially said it will not accept
any agreement that allows Iran to enrich uranium, this stance is more
tactical than strategic - Israelis would likely tolerate a limited degree
of enrichment if an agreement emerges that they deem acceptable. What
they fear is not so much a small enrichment program, but rather an
agreement that eventually permits Iran to have an industrial-size nuclear
program. In such a circumstance, they believe Iran would be left as a
threshold nuclear state at some point in the future - one capable of
breaking out to a nuclear weapons capability at a time of its choosing.
The U.S. position seems to hold that Iran would technically be permitted
to have an industrial-size program down the road; in the meantime, the
international community would be assured that Tehran will remain at least
a year away from being able to break out. With appropriate transparency,
Washington believes that such an arrangement would allow it to detect
Iranian cheating and give it sufficient time to do something about it.
The key difference, then, is not over what happens in the next year or
two, but over what Iran would be permitted to do when the term of a
potential agreement is up - say 10 to 15 years from now. The United
States seems to believe it has no better alternative, and that deferring
the Iranians for that long could produce favorable changes in the
interim. Interestingly, this basic conceptual difference with Israel may
be moot because Tehran is unwilling to concede much at the moment,
greatly diluting the prospects of a comprehensive deal. On this, the two
allies seem to agree - though Israel fears that Washington and its P5+1
partners might continue making concessions to Iran. Another difference
could emerge if the United States does not achieve a comprehensive
agreement, but instead settles for the Joint Plan of Action as the 'new
normal.' Although this arrangement may be preferable in the near term, it
could leave Iran three months away from achieving a nuclear weapons
capability and putting Israel in an untenable situation." http://t.uani.com/171EK4l
James Robbins in
TNI: "Denying Iran nuclear-weapons capability is not
only a means of limiting the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction. It is also part of a broader ideological struggle that
Tehran is taking much more seriously than is the United States. This
month, Iran celebrates the 36th anniversary of the return of the
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini from exile in 1979 and the advent of the
Islamic Revolution. In speeches, rallies and state-sponsored television
shows, Tehran is reaffirming the messages of the heady days of the
downfall of the Shah, the supremacy of Shi'a Islam and the destruction of
Iran's enemies, particularly Israel and the United States. The
celebration reminds us that Iran is not just a Middle Eastern adversary
state with dreams of regional hegemony. It is a revolutionary regime
seeking to reshape the map of the region, and the belief system of the
world. Tehran remains committed to its revolutionary agenda. Today, Iran
is active in promoting its ideology in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran
supports the largest international terrorist network in the world,
including backing Hezbollah and Hamas. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in
Yemen have captured vast swathes of territory and disrupted the
established government. This is a revolution in action, and it
illustrates that Tehran is not simply seeking to extend its influence in
the region. Rather, it is working to impose Khomeini's Shi'ite Islamist
agenda beyond its borders. Yet the White House is loathe to wage a war of
ideas with Iran. Given President Obama's well-documented sensitivities
regarding Islam, his administration prefers to focus on other aspects of
the effort to achieve global stability... The Western rivalry with Iran
is reduced to the language of power politics, ignoring the ideological
dimension. But Iran is not seeking nuclear-weapons capability simply to
preserve its regime; it is also doing so to extend its revolution. When
Iran can deter the use of force, it can also increase the reach of its
ideas. And if Washington refuses to promote a convincing counterargument
for freedom, it is unilaterally disarming... Focusing only on the nuclear
dimension of the Iranian threat is a mistake, because the ideological
conflict is the root cause of the problem. Absent Tehran's revolutionary
aspirations, there would be no drive to acquire weapons of mass
destruction and no Iranian-backed global terrorist network. Arms-control
agreements, verification regimes and contentious international
inspections cannot guarantee that Iran is not still secretly developing
nuclear weapons. When a regime leads its people in chants of 'death to
America,' we should do them the courtesy of believing that they mean
it." http://t.uani.com/1ElsZAD
David Albright,
Serena Kelleher-Vergantini & Christopher Coughlin in ISIS:
"New Digital Globe imagery purchased and analyzed by ISIS shows
continued signs of external activity at the Parchin military site where
Iran is alleged to have conducted work related to nuclear weapons
development. The signatures visible in the most recent imagery indicate
that Iran may be engaging in new asphalting at the site, efforts likely
aimed at concealing past banned activities. Parchin continues to be a key
outstanding issue to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in
resolving its concerns about Iran's past and possibly on-going nuclear
weapons work and military fuel cycle activities. Iran has yet to grant
the IAEA access to the site, provide information about alleged activities
at this site, allow interviews of officials linked to activities at the
site, or permit visits to other sites linked to the alleged military
dimensions of Iran's nuclear programs. Prospects for a comprehensive
agreement dim if Iran remains intransigent on Parchin. A deal that does
not include Iran addressing the IAEA's concerns about the past and
possibly on-going military dimensions of its nuclear program would
undermine the verifiability of a long-term agreement, and thus the
credibility of a comprehensive deal. Any deal will depend heavily on the
adequacy of the verification arrangements. Unless reversed, Iran's consistent
and unjustified refusal to address the IAEA's concerns, which require
access to Parchin and other military sites, creates a dangerous precedent
that makes adequate verification of a long-term agreement impossible,
even if Iran ratifies the Additional Protocol. Prior to the finalization
of a long-term deal, the IAEA must make significant progress on resolving
its concerns about Parchin and other alleged nuclear weapons related
activities. Certainly, without such progress, no key economic or
financial sanction on Iran should be lifted." http://t.uani.com/1Cots2H
Daniel Byman in
Brookings: "Iran's leaders have used terrorism since
they took power in 1979. Over 35 years later, Iran continues to use
terrorism and to work with an array of violent substate groups that use
terrorism among other tactics. Iran's strategic goals for supporting
terrorists and other violent substate groups include:
- Undermining
and bleeding rivals. Iran uses insurgent and terrorist groups to
weaken governments it opposes. In the 1980s, this included bitter
enemies like Saddam Hussein's Iraq and also lesser foes like the
rulers of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
- Power
projection. Tehran's military and economy are weak-and with oil
prices plunging and sanctions in place, this weakness is becoming
more pronounced. Nor is its ideological appeal strong. Nevertheless,
Iran's regime sees itself as a regional and even a world power, and
working with terrorists is a way for Iran to influence events far
from its borders. Iran's support for the Lebanese Hizballah,
Palestine Islamic Jihad, and Hamas make Iran a player in the
Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab disputes, and Iran's backing of
Houthis in Yemen give it influence on Saudi Arabia's southern
border.
- Playing
spoiler. Iran has supported groups whose attacks disrupted
Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations-a victory
for Iran, which sees the negotiations as a betrayal of the Muslim
cause and as a means of isolating the clerical regime in Iran.
- Intimidation.
Working with violent substate groups gives Iran a subversive threat,
enabling Iran to press its neighbors to distance themselves from the
United States or to refrain from joining economic or military
efforts to press Iran. Such efforts, however, often backfire:
because these states see Iran as meddling in their domestic affairs
and supporting violence there, they often become more, not less, willing
to support economic or even military pressure directed at Tehran.
- Deterrence.
Iran's ties to terrorist groups, particularly the Lebanese Hizballah
with its global infrastructure, enable it to threaten its enemies
with terrorist retaliation. This gives Iran a way to respond to
military or other pressure should it choose to do so.
- Revenge.
Iran also uses terrorism to take revenge. It has attacked
dissidents, including representatives of non-violent as well as
violent groups, even when they posed little threat to the regime.
Iran attacked France during the 1980s because of its support for
Iraq, and it has tried to target Israel because of its belief that
Israel is behind the deaths of Iran's nuclear scientists and in
retaliation for the 2008 killing of Hizballah's operational chief,
Imad Mughniyah, which is widely attributed to Israel.
- Preserving
options. As a weak state in a hostile region, Tehran seeks
flexibility and prepares for contingencies. Iran's neighbors have
often proved hostile, and rapprochements short-lived. Iran seeks
ties to a range of violent groups that give it leverage that could
be employed should suspicion turn to open hostility." http://t.uani.com/1DNaYNV
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