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Foreign Policy:
"Tehran has spent decades urging the world to bar the use of
chemical weapons, citing the thousands it lost when Saddam Hussein gassed
Iranian troops during the Iran-Iraq War. When it comes to Syria, however,
Tehran is doing all it can to protect Bashar al-Assad from Western
attempts to punish him for using the deadly weapons against his own
people. The latest sign of Tehran's willingness to shield an ally came
Tuesday, when Iran tried to block a move by the United States and Russia
to present a mildly worded statement to the executive council of the
Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCM) that would
have merely expressed 'serious concern' about the likely use of chlorine
as a weapon in Syria. The measure would also have provided the chemical
watchdog's chief with a green light to report to the U.N. Security
Council on his agency's investigation into the use of chlorine on the
Syrian battlefield - something he has so far refused to do... On Friday,
and again on Wednesday, Tehran's delegation at the OPCW headquarters in
The Hague objected to the U.S. and Russian statement, which had the
support of the OPCW's executive council's other 39 members. Normally,
that would have been enough to kill off the measure at the OPCW, which
has traditionally tried to make all of its decisions unanimously, giving
a single state an effective veto. But in an unprecedented move, the
United States forced the OPCW's executive council to publicly vote on the
statement, thereby isolating Tehran. The vote, which followed intensive
diplomatic outreach by the United States and other key partners,
effectively pulled the rug out from underneath the Iranian delegation,
making it clear that Tehran would not be able to protect Syria at The
Hague." http://t.uani.com/1zc4cug
WSJ:
"Ashton Carter, the veteran Pentagon official poised to lead the
Defense Department, told senators on Wednesday that he is likely to
support proposals to give Ukraine lethal arms in its battle with
Russia-backed separatists. Appearing before the Senate Armed Services
Committee considering his nomination, Mr. Carter said he is 'very much
inclined' to step up U.S. military aid to Ukraine, an idea that has so
far faced resistance from the White House... In the hearing, Mr. Carter
said the threats posed by Iran are as serious as those posed by Islamic
State fighters. The U.S. is leading international talks aimed at a
rapprochement with Iran over its nuclear program, which much of the West
believes is aimed at developing atomic weapons despite Tehran's denials."
http://t.uani.com/1AvMto8
Reuters:
"Iran's gas condensate export sales rose to more than $12.1 billion
in the 10 months to Jan. 21, up 42 percent from the same period of last
year, oil ministry news website Shana cited a government spokesman as saying.
Separately, Shana also reported that Iran has started new gas condensate
exports out of the world's largest gas field, South Pars, phases 15 and
16. The first condensate shipment was 500,000 barrels, with a second
500,000 barrels cargo scheduled for export this week... In December
International Energy Agency data showed that Iranian exports of the light
oil more than doubled in 2014 from the year before to about 190,000 bpd
as buyers took advantage of a loophole in oil sanctions... Iran
earned more than $12.1 billion by selling gas condensate from March 21 to
Jan. 21, against $8.5 billion in the same period a year earlier, Mohammad
Bagher Nobakht was cited by Shana as saying." http://t.uani.com/1zc0uRA
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
RFE/RL:
"The top U.S. and Iranian diplomats will reportedly hold talks in
Munich, Germany, on February 7 as part of efforts to secure a deal to
curb Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. A State
Department official is quoted as saying on February 5 that Secretary of
State John Kerry will meet Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif
on the sidelines of the annual Munich Security Conference 'to discuss the
ongoing nuclear negotiations.' The two last met one-on-one in Geneva last
month." http://t.uani.com/16Geop1
Free Beacon:
"A top Iranian military leader claims that U.S. officials have been
'begging us' to sign a nuclear deal during closed door negotiations with
Tehran over its contested nuclear program, according to recent comments
made to the Iranian state-controlled media. Mohammad Reza Naghdi, the
commander of the Basij, a paramilitary group operating under the wing of
the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), recently claimed that the
'Americans are begging us for a deal on the negotiation table,' according
to comments published in Persian and independently translated for the
Washington Free Beacon. Naghdi added that American officials routinely
'plea' with Iran in talks and that the United States is negotiating from
a position of weakness, according to his comments, which follow earlier
reports claiming that Iran's leading negotiator 'frequently shouts' at
U.S. officials." http://t.uani.com/1DISOun
Iraq Crisis
NYT:
"The United Arab Emirates, a crucial Arab ally in the American-led
coalition against the Islamic State, suspended airstrikes against the
Sunni extremist group in December, citing fears for its pilots' safety
after a Jordanian pilot was captured and who the extremists said had been
burned to death, United States officials said Tuesday... The exchange
followed a month of disputes between American military officials and
their counterparts in the United Arab Emirates, who have also expressed
concern that the United States has allowed Iran to play a growing role in
the fight against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS and ISIL." http://t.uani.com/1zCWDRb
Human Rights
ICHRI:
"A wave of labor protests has been sweeping through Iran over the
past ten days. The protests are focused on workers' demands for wage
increases to keep up with the growing rate of inflation, payment of back
wages, and other issues such as layoffs and non-renewal of labor
contracts. Between January 20 and January 29, 2015, at least eight labor
protests have taken place in different cities, as reported by Iran's
Labor News Agency, ILNA. The protests have taken the form of work
stoppages, gatherings in front of offices they hold accountable, and
group letters to the Speaker of the Parliament or the President... While
the Iranian constitution ostensibly permits peaceful protests, the
authorities frequently disperse, arrest and detain strikers. Labor
leaders are particularly singled out for persecution and prosecution.
There are no independent labor unions allowed in Iran and individuals who
try to organize workers are routinely prosecuted." http://t.uani.com/1zCTsJ7
Domestic
Politics
Guardian:
"As plunging oil revenues pressure the Iranian government to come up
with new revenue streams, reforming the country's broken tax system is
high on President Hassan Rouhani's list of priorities. But cracking down
on the plethora of exemptions and grey economic entities that allow an
estimated 43% of the country's GDP to go untaxed requires a
transformation of bureaucratic culture. On a structural level, reining in
the religious, semi-governmental and military organizations accustomed to
tax breaks portends a political challenge akin to 'pulling fresh kill out
of a lion's mouth,' a Tehran-based political analyst said... 'Taxes only
work in countries where there is some kind of accountability,' says
Mohsen, 40, a barbershop owner from east Tehran. 'There is so much
corruption here. The government takes the money I spend morning to
evening toiling for and sends it to Bashar al-Assad for his war on the
Syrian people. If it doesn't go to al-Assad, it will just disappear in
the next historic case of embezzlement.'" http://t.uani.com/1LQ1Lb2
IranWire:
"I tell Rajab that a government official has recently referred to
people like him as 'loafers.' He responds in anger: 'Damn his
own loafer ancestors! When have I loafed? If I were a loafer I would go
and lie down in bed.' The Deputy Minister of Labor and Social Affairs,
Hossein Taee, recently referred to Iran's seven million unemployed as
'loafers' or 'idlers.' The ministry is responsible for job creation. But,
according to Taee, people do not want jobs: they are not interested in
gaining skills or finding work. 'Outside of Iran, these people are
referred to as Not in Employment, Education, or Training - or NEET,' Raee
says. 'It covers people who look for a job for a while and then disappear
without a trace. We call them loafers.'" http://t.uani.com/1CxQNUT
Opinion &
Analysis
Anthony Cordesman
in Reuters: "It has become conventional wisdom that
most sectarian conflicts in the Middle East today are fueled, to some
extent, by Iran and Saudi Arabia. The worsening political situation in
Yemen - which led to Shi'ite Houthi rebels ousting President Abrabuh
Mansour Hadi on Jan. 22 - was described by some military experts as the
result of a purported Saudi-Iran 'proxy war' in Yemen. That these two
countries are enemies has been taken for granted by most, but is rarely
examined or questioned. It is time the West takes a hard look at exactly
why Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are so concerned about the Iranian
threat. Much of the Western commentary on the strategic threats in the
Middle East focuses on violent jihadist threats from non-state actors and
the Iranian nuclear threat to Israel. The reality is far more complicated
and involves the vital strategic interests of the United States, Europe,
and Asia. To begin with the nuclear issue, it is important to remember
that Iran has no nuclear weapons at present and that Israel is a mature
nuclear weapons state with thermonuclear armed missiles that can reach
any city or key target in Iran. At the same time, Iran has every reason
to focus its political rhetoric on Israel as a threat and a target. Like
its support of Gaza and the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the nuclear question
deflects Arab fears of Iran's growing ability to threaten Arab states,
divide the Arab world, and lever Iran's ability to threaten the flow of
Gulf petroleum exports. Iran already has large missile and rocket forces
that can reach any target in the Gulf and most targets in the Middle
East. But these forces lack the accuracy and lethality to do great damage
to targets in the Arab Gulf states and other neighboring states with
conventional warheads. Iran's air force is aging, worn, and lacks
anything like the capability of Saudi, United Arab Emirates, and other
Arab forces - which have far more capable aircraft, surface-to-air
missile forces, and missile defenses supplied by the West - as well as
support from U.S., British, and French air and naval forces and the
forces they can project forward in an emergency. If Iran can acquire
nuclear warheads, however, this would radically shift the balance against
Arab states that lack nuclear weapons. It would greatly increase the
threat Iran can pose, and help deter its Arab neighbors and their allies
from using their advantage in air power. This is why Saudi Arabia and the
other Gulf states are so concerned about the P5+1 negotiations with Iran.
Their governments do not see an Iranian threat to a nuclear armed Israel;
they see a nuclear threat to the Arab world... Iran poses a far more
complex mix of threats than simply its nascent nuclear capabilities, and
most will remain in place regardless of the outcome of the P5+1
negotiations." http://t.uani.com/1DIVurO
Eli Lake in
Bloomberg: "et, contrary to much reporting, the plan
for the militia defense predates the fall of Mosul and Sistani's
declaration. It dates back to an April 7, 2014, meeting between
then-Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Iraqi Shiite leaders. Maliki
privately said something that he was loathe to say publicly: He did not
trust the Iraqi army or its officers in a fight against the Islamic
State. He informed those assembled that he was beginning to mobilize the
Shiite militias to protect cities and positions in and around Baghdad. I
confirmed the account of the meeting from minutes shared with me by an
Iraqi politician, and also with a Shiite Iraqi leader who was there. Last
April, Reuters reported on the meeting as well... Iraq's shift last year
to a militia strategy has benefited men like Amiri, who as I reported
yesterday is now commanding ground forces in Diyala Province. Amiri has
close ties to Iran and his organization has been accused of significant
human rights abuses. But he has also maintained ties with American diplomats
over the years, and is not as hostile as many other Shiite militia
leaders to a U.S. presence in Iraq. The same cannot be said for Qais
al-Khalazi, founder of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq network, aka the 'League of
the Righteous.' Khazali was one of the most wanted men in Iraq during the
U.S.-led counterinsurgency known as the Surge, in part for his role in
the 2007 roadside murder of five soldiers outside of Karbala. He was
released from U.S. custody in 2010 in exchange for a British hostage held
by the group. Today, according to group spokesman Naeem al-Aboudi,
Khazali is fighting alongside the Iraqi army and even helping coordinate
combatagainst the Islamic State with Iraqi generals. 'Of course his
excellency Qais al-Khazali is leading the fighting with the Iraqi army
against the Daesh,' Aboudi said, using the Arabic acronym for the Islamic
State. Unlike Amiri, Khazali at least does not command Iraqi army
divisions. Aboudi told me Khazali makes no apologies for the deaths of
the Americans in Karbala. 'It was not only these five, we killed many
Americans,' he said. 'Every American who carried a gun is a target for
us.' He added that the initial 2007 plan was to kidnap the Americans, but
when they saw U.S. helicopters overhead, the raid's leader opted for murder
instead. 'We don't kill for the killing,' Aboudi told me. 'We love
life and peace, but the people and the citizens have the right to defend
themselves.' The Badr Organization fighters I talked to in Sinsil were
far less hostile. Captain Assam al-Hashem, who left his job as a grocer
seven months ago to join the war, said he was grateful Americans were
helping deter Islamic State's advances. During the Iran-Iraq war in the
1980s, Hashem said, he manned an anti-aircraft gun in Saddam Hussein's
army, even though he is both a Shiite and a Kurd, two groups tormented
over the years by the Iraqi dictator. But after two homemade bombs nearly
destroyed his family's home near the Iranian border this summer, he is
happy today to fight with a militia that has been trained and equipped by
the Iranians. 'We fight the Islamic State today,' he said. When asked
about Iran assisting in this new war: 'What can we do?'" http://t.uani.com/1yMHN7O
Josef Joffe in
WSJ: "When historians look back on President Obama's
foreign policy, it likely will be defined by two shibboleths: 'leading
from behind' and 'we don't have a strategy yet.' Great powers lead from
the front, and they don't formulate strategy on the fly. They must have a
strategy beforehand, one based on power and purpose that tells
challengers what to expect. Nowhere is this truer than with the Islamic
Republic of Iran, a rival power playing for the highest stakes: nuclear
weapons and regional hegemony. The retort from Mr. Obama , if he ever
laid out a Middle East strategy, might go like this: 'Iran is No. 1 in
the region, and we need its help against Islamic State and sundry Sunni
terror groups. Save for a massive assault with all its incalculable
consequences, we cannot denuclearize Iran; we can only slow its march
toward the bomb and guard against a rapid breakout. Rising powers must be
accommodated for the sake of peace and cooperation. So let's be good
realpolitikers, especially since it's time for a little nation-building
at home.' Realism in foreign policy is the first rule, but what's missing
in Mr. Obama's vocabulary? Words such as 'balance,' 'order,'
'containment' and 'alliance-cohesion'-the bread and butter of realism.
The dearth of such ideas in this administration is striking. But the
problem goes deeper. Iran is not a 'normal' would-be great power,
amenable to a grand bargain where I give and you give and we both
cooperate as we compete. Realists should understand the difference
between a 'revisionist' and a 'revolutionary' power. Revisionists ('I
want more') can be accommodated; revolutionaries ('I want it all')
cannot. Revisionists want to rearrange the pieces on the chessboard,
revolutionaries want to overturn the table in the name of the true faith,
be it secular or divine. Napoleon was a revolutionary. He went all the
way to Moscow and Cairo to bring down princes and potentates under the
banner of 'democracy.' The early Soviet Union changed the banner to
'communism' but behaved similarly. Hitler wanted to crush Europe's
nation-states in favor of the German 'master race.' All of them had to be
defeated-or, in the nuclear age, contained for decades on end. Iran is a
two-headed creature, combining both R's. As revisionist, it seeks to
unseat the U.S. in the region, targeting Lebanon and Syria with proxies
like Hezbollah, or directly with its expeditionary Guard forces. It
reaches for nuclear weapons to cow the U.S., Israel and the rest. As
revolutionary, the regime in Tehran subverts its neighbors in the name of
the one and only true God, seeking to impose Shiite supremacy from Beirut
to Baghdad. Shiite Houthi forces just grabbed power in Yemen. The Shiites
shall reign where Shiites live. The point is that revolutionary powers,
driven by the consuming faith of being on the right side of history,
cannot be appeased." http://t.uani.com/1I94bSH
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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