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A
New Chapter in the Sunni-Shiite War
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Sunni-Shiite
conflict has become the dominant political and strategic fissure in
much of the Middle East.
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The assembling of a Sunni coalition to challenge the advance of an
Iranian proxy in Yemen, and the subsequent announcement in Sharm
al-Sheikh of the formation of a 40,000 strong Arab rapid reaction force
are the latest moves in a war which has already been under way in the
Middle East for some time.
This is a war between Sunni and Shia forces over the ruins of the
regional order. It is a war which is unlikely to end in the wholesale
victory of one or another of the sides. Rather, it will end when the two
forces exhaust themselves. What the region will look like when this storm
passes is anyone's guess.
The two sides in this war differ in significant ways. The Saudi and
Arab League announcements constitute an attempt by the Sunnis to narrow
the gaps in unity and effectiveness between themselves and their Shia
opponents.
The Shia side is a united bloc, gathered around the structures of the
Islamic Republic of Iran. The Iranians are an overtly anti-western and
anti status-quo force, seeking a new Middle East order with themselves at
its head. In their propaganda, they characterize themselves as an
alliance of authentic Muslim forces, arranged against the west and its
hirelings.
The Shia side is a united bloc,
gathered around the structures of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
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In reality, they are a gathering of almost exclusively Shia groupings,
but a cohesive and united one. It is possible that the traditions of
clandestinity and cross-border communication of a long subaltern regional
minority assist in the Shia advantage in this regard.
In the Revolutionary Guards Corps and its Qods Force, the Iranians
possess an instrument perfectly designed for the current moment in the
region. This force is a gathering of professional revolutionaries whose
specific trade is the mobilizing and direction of proxy
political-military organizations.
The context of the current war is one in which states have collapsed
and separated into their separate sectarian components.
In Yemen, Iraq, Syria and in a less kinetic way Lebanon, would be
'successors' to the state organized on a sectarian or ethnic basis are
fighting one another.
In such a context, the existence of a state agency whose specific
field of expertise is the creation and maintenance of sectarian
political-military organizations is an enormous advantage. The Sunnis
have no equivalent of the IRGC and the Qods Force.
The Sunni side in this war has
been far more disparate, confused and cumbersome.
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Its existence and its skills are behind the domination of Lebanon by
Hizballah, the survival of the Assad regime in Syria, the current Shia
militia mobilization against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Ansar
Allah (Houthi) offensive in Yemen.
The Sunni side in this war has been since its inception a far more
disparate, confused and cumbersome affair.
There are a number of reasons for this. There is no Sunni equivalent
of Iran, no single powerful state which gathers and directs all other
forces under its wing.
For the last forty years, the most powerful Sunni Arab states formed
the key components of the regional alliance headed by the United States.
If Iran was the 'guiding' hand behind the Shia challenge to the regional
status quo, then the organizing force behind the pro-status quo Sunni
states was the US.
But in the last half decade of emergent sectarian war in the region,
the United States has been absent, entirely unaware of the dynamic of
events. So the Sunnis have been adrift.
The US has sought to appease both the Iranians, and the radical,
anti-western element among the Sunnis – the Muslim Brotherhood. All this
apparently as part of an effort to withdraw from the region and leave the
keys with whoever seemed most inclined to grab them.
The status quo Sunni powers are
now determined to organize themselves independently of the US.
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What the events of the last week confirm, however, is that the 'status
quo' Sunni powers, the once-allies of the United States, are now
determined to organize themselves independently, given the absence of a
US guiding hand.
The commitment of nine Sunni-majority countries to the Saudi-organized
alliance is the fruit of an ambitious attempt by Riyadh to create a new,
regionally-led counter bloc to the Iranians.
Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Sudan, Pakistan, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and
United Arab Emirates are on board. The drive to halt the advance of the
Iran-supported Houthis movement in Yemen is the first test of this new
and unfamiliar gathering.
Success remains uncertain. Egyptian ships have been dispatched to the
area. Air strikes have begun. But the wars of the present time in the
Middle East are not primarily high-tech affairs. Air power certainly
plays an important role. But in the end, these are grinding militia
contests, fought out on the ground.
In such a war, the Shia Islamist and tribal guerrillas of the Houthis
and their IRGC guides are likely to enjoy a certain advantage. The
difficult terrain of Yemen is likely to exacerbate this.
This raises a further difficulty for the Sunnis.
So far, the experience of Iraq and Syria indicates that the only Sunni
forces that have gone toe to toe with the Iran-backed element and held
their ground are Islamists. Note the recent conquest by a force led by
al-Qaeda affiliate (and Qatar client) Jabhat al Nusra of Idleb city in
north west Syria.
Idleb is the second provincial capital to fall to the anti-Assad
forces in four years of civil war. The first was Raqqa, further east.
It's now controlled by the Islamic State.
The Sunni mobilization is a sectarian
gathering par excellence.
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What this means is that the pushback against the Iranians as led by
the Sunni Arabs is likely to involve Sunni jihadis, and Muslim Brothers
(Hamas last week also declared its support for the Saudi initiative).
Nor has the Saudi initiative ended divisions among the Sunnis. The
split between pro and anti Muslim Brotherhood elements has been only
papered over. Earlier this month, Qatar and Turkey, the main
MB-supporting Sunni states, signed a separate military accord.
This mobilization contains nothing in it of regional reform. It is a
sectarian gathering par excellence.
But for all the cautions and caveats, the emergence of the
Saudi-organized coalition for Yemen and the announcement of the new Arab
force to deploy in the region are developments of high, perhaps
historical significance. They represent the Sunni picking up of the
gauntlet thrown down a while back by the Iranians.
This war was a long time coming. It emerged in stages. It has been
here for a while. This week, with the announcement of the Saudi-led
alliance in Yemen, its full dimensions have become plainly visible. A new
chapter is beginning in the region.
Jonathan Spyer is Director of the
Rubin Center for Research in International Affairs and a fellow at the
Middle East Forum. He is the author of The Transforming Fire: The Rise of the
Israel-Islamist Conflict (Continuum, 2011).
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