Posted: 22 May 2015 01:49 PM PDT
Obama can’t defeat
ISIS with soft power, though ISIS could beat him with soft power assuming its
Caliph ever decided to agree to sit down at a table with John Kerry without
beheading him. Iran has picked up billions in sanctions relief and the right
to take over Yemen and raid ships in international waters in the Persian Gulf
just for agreeing to listen to Kerry talk for an hour.
And
that might be a fair exchange.
As bad as having your capital or ship seized by Iran is, listening to John
Kerry talk is even worse.
If ISIS were to agree to a deal, it could pick up Baghdad and Damascus just
in exchange for showing up. All it would have to do is find a Jihadi who
hasn’t chopped off any heads on camera to present as a moderate. The
administration and its media operatives would accuse anyone who disagreed of
aiding the ISIS hardliners at the expense of the ISIS moderates who also
represent the hardliners.
If Obama did that, he would at least lose in a way that he understands;
instead of in a way he doesn’t.
So far ISIS has preferred the classical approach of killing everything in its
path. The approach, deemed insufficiently nuanced by masters of subtlety like
Obama and Kerry, has worked surprisingly well. Their response, which is big
on the Bush arsenal of drone strikes, Special Forces raids and selective air
strikes, hasn’t. But Bush was fighting terrorist groups, not unrecognized
states capable of taking on armies.
It’s hard to destroy something if you don’t know what it is. And it’s hard to
know what a thing is if you won’t even call it by its name or name its
ideology.
The left loves root causes, but the root cause of ISIS isn’t poverty,
unemployment or a lack of democracy.
It’s Islam.
The Islamic State isn’t unnatural. Its strength comes from being an organic
part of the region, the religion and its culture. Its Arab enemies have
performed so poorly fighting it because their institutions, their governments
and their armies are unstable imitations of Western entities.
The United States can’t make the Iraqi army work because Iraq isn’t America.
The assumptions about meritocracy, loyalty to comrades and initiative that
make our military work are foreign in Iraq and Afghanistan where the
fundamental unit is not the nation, but the tribe, clan and group.
Iraq and Syria aren’t countries; they’re collections of quarreling tribes
that were forced into an arrangement that included the forms of Western
government without any of the substance. When the Europeans left, kingdoms
quickly became military juntas. Now the juntas are fighting for survival
against Islamic insurgencies that are striving to return the region to what
it was in the days of Mohammed.
ISIS is the ultimate decolonization effort. It’s what the left claims that it
wants. But real decolonization means stripping away everything the Europeans
brought, including constitutions, labor unions and elections. The cities that
ISIS controls have been truly decolonized. There is no music, there are no
rights, slavery is back and every decision is made by a cleric with a militia
or a militia leader with a cleric.
That’s Mohammed. It’s the Koran. It’s Islam.
ISIS, or something very much like it, was always waiting to reemerge out of
the chaos. Before ISIS, there were the Wahhabi armies of the Ikhwan which did
most of the same things as ISIS. The British bombed them to pieces in the
1920s and the remainder became the Saudi Arabian National Guard. The
insistence on democratic institutions weakened the military juntas holding
back Islamist insurgencies. Islamists took power across the region. Where
they couldn’t win elections, they went to war. But whether they won on the
battlefield or the ballot box, violence and instability followed them.
The fundamental mistake of the Arab Spring was the failure to
understand that Islamist democracy is still a road leading to the Caliphate.
Turkey’s Erdogan, the Islamist whose rule was used to prove that Islamist
democracy can work, now openly promotes the reestablishment of the Ottoman
Empire. Or as Mullah Krekar of Ansar Al-Islam put it, “The resistance is not
only a reaction to the American invasion; it is part of the continuous
Islamic struggle since the collapse of the Caliphate. All Islamic struggles
since then are part of one organized efforts to bring back the Caliphate.” A
decade later, the Norwegian Jihadist leader has proven to be more accurate
than his Western hosts.
ISIS is not a reaction. It’s the underlying pathology in the Muslim world.
Everything planted on top of that, from democracy to dictatorships, from
smartphones to soft drinks, suppresses the disease. But the disease is always
there. The left insists that Western colonialism is the problem. But the true
regional alternative to Western colonialism is slavery, genocide and the
tyranny of Jihadist bandit armies.
Our policy for fighting ISIS is colonialism by another name. We are trying to
reform Iraqi institutions in line with our values and build a viable Iraqi
military along the lines of our own military. We’re doing much of what the
British were doing, but without their financial interests or imperial
ambitions.
And all of this is reluctantly overseen by Barack Obama; the progressive
campaigner against colonialism.
To deal with a problem, we must be honest about what it is and what we are
doing about it. If we lie to ourselves, we cannot and will not succeed. After
the failure of democracy and political Islam, Obama has been forced to return
to what works. Islamization has failed and so we are back to trying
Westernization. The missing element is admitting that Islamization has failed
because Islam was the problem all along. The West is the solution.
But institutional Westernization that that never goes beyond a few government
offices and military officers won’t work. Neither will the attempt to
artificially inject a few big ideas such as democracy into an undemocratic
tribal culture. The only alternative to depending on military juntas is
transforming the people. Sunni Gulf Arabs responded to their military and
economic dependence on the West with a largely successful campaign to
Islamize the West. The West won a culture war with the USSR. It is capable of
winning one with Saudi Arabia. It has even unintentionally won a culture war
with Iran.
ISIS is not a military force. It is a cultural one. Much of its success has
come from its cultural appeal.
As long as the Middle East is defined in terms of Islam, some variation of
the Islamic State or the Muslim Brotherhood bent on recreating the Caliphate
will continue reemerging. We can accept that and give up, but the growing
number of Muslim migrants and settlers mean that it will emerge in our
country as well.
We have a choice between Islamization and de-Islamization.
After
defeating Saddam, we pursued the de-Baathization of Iraq. If we are going to
intervene in the Muslim world, it should not be to reward one Islamist group,
whether it’s Iran or the Muslim Brotherhood, at the expense of another.
Instead we must carve out secular spaces by making it clear that our support
is conditional on civil rights for Christians, non-believers and other
non-Muslims.
Our most potent weapon isn’t the jet, it’s our culture. We disrupt Islamists
with our culture even when we aren’t trying. Imagine what we could accomplish
if we really tried.
But first we must abandon the idea that we need to take sides in Islamic
civil wars. Any intervention we undertake should be conditioned on a
reciprocal degree of de-Islamization from those governments that we are
protecting. Instead of pursuing democracy, we should strengthen non-Islamic
and counter-Islamic forces in the Muslim world.
We can’t beat ISIS with Islam and we can’t fight for freedom while endorsing
constitutions that make Sharia law into the law of the land in places like
Iraq and Libya.
We don’t only need to defeat ISIS. We must defeat the culture that makes ISIS
inevitable.
Daniel Greenfield is a New York City based writer and blogger
and a Shillman Journalism Fellow of the David Horowitz Freedom Center.
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