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AP: "Iranians across the Islamic
Republic voted Friday in the country's first election since its landmark
nuclear deal with world powers, deciding whether to further empower its
moderate president or side with hard-liners long suspicious of the
West. The election for Iran's parliament and a clerical body known as
the Assembly of Experts hinges on both the policies of President Hassan
Rouhani, as well as Iranians worries about the country's economy, long
battered by international sanctions. Nearly 55 million of Iran's 80
million people are eligible to vote and there were long lines at
polling places since morning hours. Voters cast ballots at some 53,000
polling stations, writing down the names of their picks on two separate
ballots and dyeing their fingers with ink to show they had voted...
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's supreme leader who has final say
on all state matters, was among the first to vote in the capital,
Tehran. 'Whoever likes Iran and its dignity, greatness and glory should
participate in this election,' he said after casting his ballot. 'We
have enemies who are eyeing us greedily. Turnout in the elections
should be such that our enemy will be disappointed and will lose its
hope. People should be observant and vote with open eyes.' Rouhani,
himself a candidate in the Assembly of Experts election, also addressed
journalists after voting, saying he expected an 'epic' turnout... The
vote is unlikely to radically change Iran, but reformists and moderates
peeling away seats from hard-liners could help Rouhani push through his
domestic agenda. Reformists say that initially only 30 of their 3,000
would-be candidates were allowed to run. But officials later reversed
the disqualifications of 1,500 candidates, including some reformists.
In the end, the reformist camp says it has about 200 candidates in the
running - with a slogan of 'hope, stability and economic
prosperity.'" http://t.uani.com/1Q84m1V
Reuters: "Secretary of State John
Kerry urged Congress on Thursday not to rush to renew the Iran
Sanctions Act (ISA), a broad U.S. law imposing sanctions over Iran's
nuclear and missile programs that expires at the end of the year. 'I
wouldn't advise that for a number of reasons,' Kerry told the House of
Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee at a hearing on the State
Department's budget. Many lawmakers have been pushing to renew the ISA
quickly, to send a message to Tehran that Congress is still taking a
hard line over its nuclear program, missile development and human
rights record. The effort could set up another showdown over Iran
between the administration and the Republicans who control Congress...
'If the administration isn't supportive of this renewal (of the ISA),
not only are we preventing the possibility of a snapback, but from the
standpoint of myself and many of the members of this committee, we're
also giving relief on missiles,' said Representative Ed Royce, the
Republican committee chairman... Kerry said lawmakers should allow more
time to see how Iran responds to the international nuclear agreement,
which went into effect only last month. He argued that sanctions can be
imposed quickly if Iran is found to violate terms of the nuclear deal
or other agreements. Kerry was asked about reports that Iran will enjoy
a windfall of up to $150 billion from the nuclear agreement as money
frozen under the sanctions regime is released. He said the total likely
would be about one-third of that level, and currently is far lower.
'Our estimates are it's somewhere in the vicinity of $50 to $55 billion
at some point in time but it's way below that right now.' Kerry said.
'And in fact, they are complaining about the slowness with which there
has been a process of repatriation.'" http://t.uani.com/1oMHegI
Al-Monitor: "The UN nuclear agency will
face 'challenges' verifying Iran's compliance with last year's nuclear
agreement, the US government watchdog said Feb. 23 in a new report that
was immediately used as ammunition by critics of the deal. The
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) faces a budget and staffing
shortfall that will require an extra $10 million per year for the next
15 years to monitor the deal, according to the Government
Accountability Office (GAO). The report goes on to detail the agency's
dependence on Iranian cooperation to access nuclear sites and the
intrinsic difficulty in detecting undeclared activities such as weapons
development and centrifuge manufacturing that do not leave a nuclear
trace. Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., said the report raises concerns
about 'the entity that we are putting all our marbles in.' He
commissioned the report with Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., a fellow critic of
the deal who also voted against it last year. 'Some of the preliminary
findings cause concern for me about what the IAEA is capable of,'
Menendez told Secretary of State John Kerry at a hearing on the
department's FY 2017 budget request. 'The GAO [report] point[s]
directly to future problems with monitoring, verifying and meeting
requirements of the [Iran deal].' Kirk used the report to call on
Congress to prepare sanctions that can be imposed if Iran starts to
cheat on its nuclear obligations. He and Menendez are pushing for the
reauthorization of the Iran Sanctions Act, a decade-old law that
expires at the end of the year." http://t.uani.com/1n1xIEE
Sanctions
Relief
Reuters: "Pakistan's central bank has
cleared all commercial banks and financial institutions for business
with Iran, paving the way for the two countries to resume regular
business activity that was hampered by years of sanctions... 'In line
with the federal government's decision to implement the United Nations
Security Council Resolution regarding lifting of sanctions against
Iran, the State Bank of Pakistan has communicated to banks/financial
institutions that previous sanctions on Iran have been removed and
normal business activities can be commenced within the scope of the
Resolution,' the central bank said in a statement. 'It is expected that
the lifting of sanctions and restoration of banking channels between
Pakistan and Iran would revive normal trade and business activities
between the two neighbors.' Trade between Pakistan and Iran fell to
$431.76 million in 2010-11 from $1.32 billion in 2008-09, according to
the Trade Development Authority of Pakistan." http://t.uani.com/1T0qy1w
Business
Risk
Bloomberg: "Iran is offering to swap
exports of crude oil for imports of refined fuel as some European
customers struggle to find banks to process payments, a sign the Middle
Eastern nation is still having difficulty regaining markets since the
removal of sanctions. The National Iranian Oil Co. is resorting to
barter because financial restrictions still impede trade, said three
officials who asked not to be named citing company policy. Hellenic
Petroleum SA has struggled to secure deliveries because banks wouldn't
process payments, said two people familiar with the matter... Banks are
being 'super cautious because they do want to have access to the U.S.
markets and the U.S. rules as to what they can do aren't particularly
clear,' said Ross Denton, a partner at Baker & McKenzie LLP
specializing in sanctions. 'Iran is open for trade' only for entities
with no direct connection to the U.S., he said. Several European banks
approached by Hellenic refused to handle transactions linked to Iran,
the two people said, asking not to be identified because the matter was
private... Barter deals avoid the need to access bank finance for as
long as many lenders remain unwilling to issue letters of credit for
Iran-linked trades, the three NIOC officials said. The company is
asking for at least partial cash payment for most refined-product
trades and accepting transactions in Euros and other currencies, they
said. It is offering products such as fuel oil in exchange for imports
of gasoline and is also willing to swap crude for fuel, they
said." http://t.uani.com/1TbHDpG
Sky
News: "Visa
problems have forced the cancellation of a flagship Iranian banking
conference in London next month, stoking concerns that Britain is
failing to exploit the lifting of economic sanctions against Tehran.
Sky News can reveal that an event arranged by Euromoney which was due
to be held at The Dorchester hotel, has been called off after Iranian
delegates were unable to secure visas. It is the second London
conference aimed at promoting trade links between the UK and Iran to be
cancelled since sanctions were lifted, following a decision to postpone
a similar gathering for oil and gas executives. Harriett Baldwin, a
Treasury minister, was scheduled to speak at next month's banking
conference, alongside the chief executive of UK Export Finance, and the
Governor of Iran's central bank. In a statement issued to conference
attendees, Euromoney said: 'The event is designed to reconnect leaders
of the Iranian financial community, banks and capital market
institutions with the international financial community. 'We have been
working hard to ensure that the largest number of participants from
Iran can attend the event as possible. 'However, unfortunately due to
visa reasons alone we cannot go ahead on 8 March and will be
rescheduling to a later date which will ensure maximum turnout from our
senior Iranian delegation.'" http://t.uani.com/1WNWmF1
Terrorism
AP: "Israel's prime minister said
Thursday an Iranian offer to compensate the families of Palestinians
killed in a wave of Israeli-Palestinian violence, among them attackers,
proves Iran continues to 'aid terrorism' even after the landmark
nuclear deal signed last year. His comments come a day after Iran's
ambassador to Lebanon said Iran would pay $7,000 to the families of
killed Palestinians to 'enable the Palestinian people to stay in their
land and confront the occupier,' Ambassador Mohammad Fathali was quoted
as saying by Lebanon's state-run National News Agency. Near-daily
Palestinian attacks since mid-September have killed 28 Israelis...
'This shows that Iran, even after the nuclear agreement, is continuing
to aid terrorism ... This is something that the nations of the world
must confront and condemn and assist Israel - and other countries, of
course - in repelling,' Netanyahu said ahead of a meeting with the
visiting Bulgarian prime minister... U.S. Secretary of State John
Kerry, who negotiated the Iran deal, said he was 'extremely disturbed'
by the compensation offer. 'That's completely inappropriate and seems
to lend some sort of credibility to that violence ... and I think it's
the wrong choice by Iran,' Kerry told the House Foreign Affairs
Committee." http://t.uani.com/21mGorV
Reuters: "An Argentine prosecutor who
died last year just days after accusing then-President Cristina
Fernandez of covering up Iran's alleged role in the bombing of a Jewish
center was apparently murdered, an official investigating the case said
on Thursday. Alberto Nisman was found shot dead in the bathroom of his
Buenos Aires apartment 13 months ago. The case had been classified as a
suicide, an idea Nisman's family and friends dismissed as absurd. Polls
show most Argentines believe his death was a homicide. 'The evidence up
to this point supports the hypothesis that Alberto Nisman was the
victim of the crime of homicide,' Ricardo Saenz, district attorney for
the Buenos Aires Criminal Appeals Court, wrote in a recommendation that
the case be handed over to federal authorities and pursued as a murder
investigation. It was the first time that a judicial authority had
classified the death as a homicide. The move came amid a raft of
changes made since President Mauricio Macri was inaugurated in
December. Macri pledged during the campaign to get to the bottom of the
Nisman mystery and he promised justice when he met last month with
Nisman's daughters, who are plaintiffs in the case. When Nisman's body
was discovered he was less than a day from a scheduled appearance in
Congress to outline his accusation that Fernandez tried to cover up
Iran's alleged role in the 1994 truck bombing of a Buenos Aires Jewish
center. Found on the floor, a pistol by his side and a bullet in his
head, Nisman had been leading Argentina's probe into the bombing."
http://t.uani.com/1TDbMwu
Syria
Conflict
AFP: "Iran has withdrawn a
'significant number' of its Revolutionary Guards troops from the Syrian
battlefield, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Thursday... Kerry,
speaking two days before a tentative ceasefire is due due to take
effect in the long-running civil war, told a congressional committee
that Tehran's direct involvement had been reduced. 'The IRGC has
actually pulled its troops back from Syria. Ayatollah Khamenei pulled a
significant number of troops out. Their presence is actually reduced in
Syria,' Kerry told U.S. lawmakers, referring to Iran's supreme leader,
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 'That doesn't mean that they're still not
engaged and active in the flow of weapons from Syria through Damascus
to Lebanon. We're concerned about that and there's an ongoing concern.'
Kerry did not give the source of his information in the open hearing,
but he invited the lawmakers 'to get the intel briefing.'" http://t.uani.com/1oML1L1
Iran-Saudi
Tensions
AP: "Saudi Arabia has lashed out
at Lebanon, cutting off billions of dollars of aid and telling its
citizens to leave the country, after Beirut sided with Iran in the
fallout over the execution of a Saudi Shiite cleric, in a diplomatic
dispute that threatens Lebanon's struggling economy. The tension
reflects the worsening Sunni-Shiite conflict in the Middle East, which
is driven by regional powerhouses Saudi Arabia and Iran, who are
fighting proxy wars in Syrbia, Yemen and, to a lesser extent, in Iraq.
Saudi's punitive measures against Lebanon began last week after the
Lebanese foreign minister, Gibran Bassil, an ally of the Iranian-backed
Hezbollah group, declined to support Saudi resolutions against Iran
during two meetings of Arab and Muslim foreign ministers. The
resolution sought to condemn Iran over attacks on Saudi diplomatic
missions following Riyadh's execution of prominent Shiite cleric Nimr
al-Nimr in early January. Riyadh announced Friday it was halting $4
billion in aid grants due to what it described as stances taken by
Lebanese officials which 'were not in harmony with the ties between the
two countries.' This week, Saudi Arabia called on its citizens not to
travel to Lebanon for safety reasons and ordered those staying there to
leave. Its Gulf allies Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar predictably followed
suit, issuing similar warnings. The United Arab Emirates also banned
its citizens from traveling to Lebanon and withdrew a number of
diplomats from the country." http://t.uani.com/1Qi7j15
Domestic
Politics
Reuters: "Rouhani, 67, has an
unblemished background in Iran's clerical establishment. Khamenei
praised Rouhani's election in 2013 as the 'selection of a worthy
individual who has more than three decades of service to the system of
the Islamic Republic'. He went into exile with the late founder of the
1979 Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei, before the
revolution and was appointed representative to the Supreme National
Security Council shortly after Khamenei took power in 1989. In that
role, he presided over the talks with Britain, France and Germany that
led to Iran's suspension of uranium enrichment-related work in 2003,
and resigned after hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took office
in 2005." http://t.uani.com/1S63jSD
AFP: "While the rest of Iran
focuses on an election defined by competing visions for the country,
most people in the holy city of Qom declare only one allegiance: to
supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A traditionally conservative
bastion at the centre of Iran's Shiite faith, the duty to vote in Qom
is billed as another means to support the clerical regime's opposition
to Western powers... Zahra Yazdi, 23, a girl in chador -- a traditional
full black veil-- said she would cast her vote 'to stop foreigners from
influencing my country.' 'There are some infiltrator elements in Iran
who are ordered by foreign powers but our people are smart and ... will
stop the infiltration.' She will vote 'principlist' (conservative) on
Friday 'because they follow the supreme leader.' ... Asghar Amanabadi,
29, from Arak province in central Iran was on a pilgrimage to Qom with
his wife and baby. Standing next to the mausoleum he had to shout over
the call of prayers. 'Ayatollah Khamenei is the number one figure in
our country,' Amanabadi said. 'We all support him, but the principlists
support him more.'" http://t.uani.com/1TbIRky
Reuters: "Powerful anti-Western cleric
Ahmad Jannati will almost certainly be re-elected to Iran's Assembly of
Experts on Friday, putting him in position to play a key role in its
selection of the next supreme leader if and when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
dies. Elections for parliament are also scheduled for Friday, but it is
the outcome of the assembly vote that is likely to have a much greater
long-term impact, given that it has exclusive power to select, monitor
and dismiss Iran's most powerful authority. Even by the standards of
Iran's clerical establishment, Jannati is known for his virulently
anti-Western opinions, once accusing the West of having created al
Qaeda and describing U.S. forces in Iraq as 'bloodthirsty wolves'. In
remarks echoed by Khamenei, Jannati this week accused the United States
and Britain of trying to influence Friday's votes. 'The United States
and the United Kingdom were trying to take advantage of the Iranian
elections and send their agents and infiltrators into the Assembly of
Experts, but God helped us and we managed to identify and block them
all,' he was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency on Wednesday...
As a leader of Friday prayers in Tehran, Jannati has criticized
Rouhani's attempts to end Iran's global isolation. The cleric also
backed the disputed re-election of hardline president Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad in 2009. Months of mass protests were crushed by the state
security apparatus, headed by the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and
its affiliated Basij militia volunteers. He responded to the uprising
against alleged ballot fraud by recommending opposition leaders Mehdi
Karoubi and Mirhossein Mousavi be put under house arrest. In a Friday
prayer sermon at the time he said: 'What I suggest to the judiciary is
to cut their communications, shut their house doors, restrict their
moves so they cannot send or receive messages. Their telephone and
internet should be cut and they should be imprisoned in their house.'
Those measures were put into effect." http://t.uani.com/24sYXK2
Opinion
& Analysis
Dan De
Luce & Elias Groll in FP: "During festivities this month marking the
anniversary of Iran's 1979 revolution, officials publicly displayed a
mock-up of the country's latest rocket, the Simorgh. Designed to launch
a satellite into space, it bears a striking resemblance to the rocket
North Korea just used for its own satellite launch, reinforcing
concerns that Tehran is working with Pyongyang to develop advanced
ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel and parts of Europe.
Iran's unabashed pursuit of missile technology is the latest example of
how the country is asserting itself in the aftermath of the landmark
nuclear deal that Tehran signed in July with the United States and five
other major powers. While U.S. officials say Iran has so far abided by
the nuclear accord, Tehran in recent months has been flouting separate
international restrictions on ballistic missiles and arms imports while
expanding its support for militants in the region. Iran has recently
conducted two ballistic missile tests despite a U.N. ban and appears
poised to launch its new Simorgh rocket. Western intelligence agencies
fear Iran is working its way to building an intercontinental ballistic
missile, which could eventually be outfitted with an atomic warhead -
if Tehran were to opt out of the nuclear agreement. And across the
region, Iran is waging war through proxies and even its own military
units to shore up the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad,
undermine Israel, and support Shiite Houthis against Saudi-backed
forces in Yemen. Working with Russian warplanes, Iran's special forces
- along with fighters from the Lebanese Hezbollah militia - have helped
the Assad regime clear out rebels from strategically important
territories like the long contested districts around the city of
Aleppo. The moves are raising concerns in Middle Eastern capitals and
in the U.S. Congress, including among some of President Barack Obama's
fellow Democrats who backed the nuclear agreement but are worried the
administration could cede too much ground to Tehran. Sen. Chris Coons
(D-Del.), who voted in favor of the nuclear deal, said he wanted to see
the agreement succeed but that it was time to get 'tougher' with Iran.
'We're going to have to be clear that we're not going to tolerate their
bad behavior, and we're willing to punish Iran,' Coons told Foreign
Policy. Coons and some Democratic lawmakers took a significant
political risk in endorsing the nuclear accord... Now those Democrats
'are questioning whether the administration has their backs,' said one
Senate Democratic staffer, who spoke on condition of anonymity... Coons
and some lawmakers are urging the United States and other major powers
to prepare contingency plans for more minor violations of the nuclear
agreement that would not be serious enough to trigger a resumption of
international economic sanctions. These plans could involve unilateral
penalties by the United States or measures coordinated with European
governments. 'We need to have an agreed-upon menu of options that shows
we won't tolerate excursions outside of the limits on the deal,' Coons
said in an interview with FP." http://t.uani.com/21wST0N
Ray
Takeyh in WSJ: "Meanwhile,
a subtle debate is taking place between hard-liners and pragmatists
about the direction of Iran's economy. And neither side appears to have
a realistic plan for its country's uncertain future. Iran's supreme
leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his militant disciples have long
viewed integration into the global economy as a threat to their
virtuous republic. That's no surprise: A revolution that rejects
international norms cannot become dependent on foreign banks and
investors. The damage to Iran's economy by Western sanctions imposed in
response to Tehran's nuclear program became a cautionary tale for the
ayatollah. Through much of the election campaign, hard-line candidates
have weaved conspiracy theories about how the West is plotting to subvert
the Islamic Republic through trade. In the hard-liners' telling, oil is
more a curse than a necessity for national development. This echoes
Ayatollah Khamenei, who for decades has pressed Iran's presidents to
produce budgets that lessen reliance on oil. The hard-liners'
(impractical) vision is of an Iran isolated from the global economy and
somewhat immune to the vagaries of the petroleum market. To the extent
that Ayatollah Khamenei and his cohort have an economic plan, it is for
Iran to become self-sufficient by relying on its population and
neighboring states. Iran, a country of 80 million people, has the
resources and customers to meet many of its needs. Iran can also serve
as the hub of a regional market including Iraq, Afghanistan, and the
Central Asian republics. Already, Tehran supplies cars, steel, and
petrochemicals to these countries. It can take advantage of geography
to expand those markets. To most, the notion that Iran can become
self-sufficient and wean itself off oil is fanciful. But to Iranian
conservatives, poverty is a price worth paying for independence. The
revolution can never flourish if it is hemmed in by foreign goods and
temptations of Western culture. The economic plans of President Hassan
Rouhani and his band of pragmatists may seem more rational, but they,
too, have impracticalities. The so-called moderate candidates in Iran's
elections have largely avoided talk of structural reforms such as
adjusting or ending the subsidies that weigh on government budgets and
diversifying the economy. They fear that such reforms could spark a
popular backlash and, eventually, unhinge the entire system. Mr.
Rouhani and his parliamentary allies hope that increased oil sales and
foreign investment will somehow sustain Iran's economy. The nuclear agreement
was an indispensable part of this vision. But Iran's needs are too
great, its population too large, and its markets too small to attract
sufficient foreign capital. Iran remains a leading sponsor of terrorism
and an imperial state ravaging the Middle East, both of which make it a
poor choice for foreign investors. As the complexion of energy markets
changes and oil becomes less essential for engines of the industrial
world, Iran will find itself in a predicament... The problem for the
Islamic Republic is not the political composition of its parliament or
the age of its Assembly of Experts but the fact that its leaders have
no vision for how to meet future economic challenges. Iran today
resembles the Soviet Union of the 1970s, a regime that avoided economic
reforms and hoped that oil money would save it-eventually, from itself.
That was a regime that indulged in imperial ventures with obvious costs
but hard-to-discern benefits; a regime shielding itself in an ideology
that convinced a few and inspired no one. This dilemma cannot be
resolved by another round of circumscribed elections." http://t.uani.com/1UowZuC
Sohrab
Ahmari in WSJ:
"For much of Iranian history the Persian word for 'politics' had
two meanings. Siyasat referred to the emperor's art of preserving his
dynasty against rivals and invaders. Or it referred to the cruel and
unusual punishments the emperor meted out to officials who displeased
him, ranging from flogging and blinding to beheading. Keep this in mind
as the current emperor, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stages an election
on Friday, the first since last summer's nuclear deal with the great
powers. At stake are the Majlis, or Parliament, as well as the Assembly
of Experts, the clerical body that will select and nominally oversee
the ailing Mr. Khamenei's successor. There will be ballot boxes and
voter lines, and Western journalists will be granted rare access to
cover an event the regime is keen to portray as a legitimate democratic
exercise. Yet every candidate has been screened by layers of security
men and hand-selected by Islamic jurists... Herein lies the perverse
genius of the Islamic Republic. It encourages outsiders to treat the regime
as something other than a theocratic dictatorship. Western officials,
and many Iranians themselves, hope that the regime's periodic elections
and plebiscites might finally empower men who will moderate Tehran's
behavior. It's been 37 years since the regime's founding, and liberal
Khomeinists remain elusive. The hard-liners-the men who run the armed
forces, the repressive apparatus, the nuclear program, the judiciary
and the state-run media-are tightening their grip and flaunting their
enduring primacy. On the domestic front, the regime has launched a
fresh crackdown against degar-andishan, dissidents or
'other-thinkers'-poets, film makers, journalists and novelists who
question its rule. Tehran is also warning off Iranian-Americans eager
to cash in on their commercial connections now that international
sanctions have been lifted. Security forces in October arrested Siamak
Namazi, an American energy consultant who had long advocated for the
removal of sanctions and a Washington-Tehran opening. On Monday, Mr.
Namazi's U.S. citizen father, Baquer, was arrested after apparently
being lured back by the regime. Restrictions on women's rights remain
as tight as ever. 'Day by day the women's conditions get worse,
contrary to Western expectations,' says Darya Safai, a Belgium-based
activist who campaigns against the ban on Iranian women entering sports
stadiums. Two ballistic-missile tests since the nuclear deal, plus the
seizure and humiliation of 10 U.S. sailors in January, suggest the
ayatollahs are stepping up their regional bullying. A group of
regime-linked media outlets this week announced they had donated
$600,000 to the bounty for Salman Rushdie, raising to $4 million the
total prize pool on the British novelist's head for insulting the
Prophet Muhammad. Still, the dream of reforming the system from within
remains alive. Regime elites wrangle over the tone of Iranian foreign
policy. But they agree on the most fundamental questions-the sanctity
of the nuclear program, an anti-Western foreign policy and the theocratic
character of the regime. As an exiled reformist recently told me: 'The
reformists won't ever drill a hole in the hull of the Islamic Republic
boat because they are passengers on that boat and would drown without
it.'" http://t.uani.com/1Qiayph
Eli
Lake in Bloomberg:
"Remember when the nuclear deal with Iran had a chance to
strengthen the country's moderates? Jeb Bush was the Republican
presidential front-runner. Fetty Wap ruled the charts. Serena Williams
nearly won the Grand Slam of Women's Tennis. 2015. What a year. You
don't really hear this line any more from President Barack Obama. To
understand why, consider Friday's elections in Iran. In theory,
Iranians will be choosing members of their parliament and the Assembly
of Experts, a panel of Islamic scholars who will choose the country's
next supreme leader, who controls Iran's foreign policy and nuclear
program. With most sanctions lifted, the nuclear deal is popular in
Iran. So this should be a golden opportunity for Iran's relatively
moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, to consolidate his power. But this
is Iran. Beginning in January, the regime's Guardian Council began
purging any candidates who espoused the slightest deviation from the
country's septuagenarian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Candidates who favored releasing political prisoners -- including the
leaders of the Green Movement that many Iranians feel won the 2009
presidential elections -- were disqualified. Even members of the
Assembly of Experts, who had previously passed the vetting process, were
disqualified. So too was the grandson of Iran's first supreme leader,
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. To paraphrase a former top U.S. negotiator
in the Iran talks, Wendy Sherman, Iranians on Friday will have a choice
between hardliners and hard hardliners. This counts as a failure of
U.S. policy. To be sure, Obama has said repeatedly that the Iran
nuclear deal does not depend on changes in the nature of the regime.
But nonetheless, he sought to empower Rouhani's moderates against the
supreme leader and his hardliners. This administration policy began
almost as soon as Rouhani himself was elected. After he won the
presidency in June 2013, the Treasury Department paused the process for
blacklisting front companies and other Iranian concerns targeted by sanctions...
Over the summer, Obama expressed guarded optimism that the nuclear deal
would open up new possibilities for Iran's moderates. He told NPR that
one possible consequence of engaging in nuclear talks is that 'Iran
starts making different decisions that are less offensive to its
neighbors; that it tones down the rhetoric in terms of its virulent
opposition to Israel.' He had previously said that, after agreement on
a nuclear deal, 'my hope would be that that would serve as the basis
for us trying to improve relations over time.' This is not how things
have worked out. Instead, the fanatics who run Iran have been more
bellicose than ever. They have taken two more Iranian-Americans
prisoner; detained and humiliated U.S. Navy sailors; tested new
missiles and arrested more human rights activists. Just this week
Iran's state-run Fars news agency renewed the bounty on the head of
novelist Salman Rushdie. Defenders of the deal tell us that these
provocations are really aimed at undermining Rouhani, who has tried his
best to alleviate the strain on his country's economy and civil
society. This presumes that different forces in Iran are vying for
power and that Iran's long term trajectory is up for grabs. But this
misses an important point. The purges are part of a longer pattern that
show the hardliners are not so much interested in gaining political
advantage but in eliminating any political competition at all. The
Iranian reformers who briefly came into power in the late 1990s and
early 2000s are today completely marginalized, exiled or in jail. To
understand the degree of Iran's political stagnation, consider this bit
of history. When Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was president of Iran in
the 1990s, the journalist Akbar Ganji documented Rafsanjani's role in
the murder of dissidents and intellectuals. In 2013, Ganji -- who is
himself living in exile -- endorsed Rafsanjani for the presidency, in
part because the choices were already so narrowed by the unelected part
of the Iranian state. And so it is today. Despite the humiliation of
the electoral purges, Rouhani has encouraged Iranians to vote
nonetheless. He has long given up on his promises to release political
prisoners or address human rights... All of this brings us back to the
nuclear deal. Despite what Obama says, the only way it can be
considered a success is if, over time, Iran really does undergo reform
and its leaders abandon the revolution that threatens the rest of the
Middle East. This is because the limits on Iran's nuclear program will
expire in 10 to 20 years, after the nation will have had a chance to
rebuild its economy and modernize its military. If the hostage-taking
terror enthusiasts who run Iran today are in charge of the country when
that day comes, then Obama's nuclear negotiations will be revealed to
have been little more than a shake down." http://t.uani.com/1pcmY8b
NYT
Editorial:
"It happens nearly every February: Iranian hard-line organizations
make a symbolic gesture to breathe new life into the fatwa against the
author Salman Rushdie. The fatwa, declared on Feb. 14, 1989, by
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, called for Mr. Rushdie to be killed for
his novel 'The Satanic Verses,' which was deemed blasphemous. True to
form, on Monday, 40 Iranian news agencies announced they had raised
$600,000 to add to the bounty on Mr. Rushdie. In theory, that bounty
now stands at nearly $4 million, although it's far from clear that the
money would ever be paid. But that is not the point. Monday's
announcement has far more to do with power struggles in Iran ahead of
Friday's elections for seats in Iran's Parliament and its Assembly of
Experts (a group of 88 senior clerics) than it does with Mr. Rushdie.
Though Iran's hard-line political leaders have stacked the electoral
deck in their favor by culling reformists from the roster of approved
candidates, they are taking no chances that moderates might be elected.
Since a large voter turnout is thought to favor moderate candidates,
dragging up the old fatwa against Mr. Rushdie is, as the reformist
journalist Mojgan Faraji observed, intended to overshadow the elections
and cause a stir to make 'other issues more important than voting.' The
hard-liners are right be nervous. The BBC's Persian social media team
reports that the hashtag #ImVoting is gaining momentum, a sign that
Iranians will be turning out in big numbers. As long as the fatwa
remains in place, the threat to Mr. Rushdie will never entirely
disappear. Though Mr. Rushdie has been able to move on with his writing
and his life, 27 years after the fatwa was pronounced, it's long past
time for Iran to end it and focus on the work of rebuilding the
country's economy and improving Iranian lives." http://t.uani.com/1VILMyT
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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