India-West
Asia Relationship Can Swing Either Way
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[N.B.: The HT ran an abridged
version; this is the full text.]
NEW DELHI – Although it's been a quarter-century since India came out
from its era of socialist economics and pro-Soviet foreign policy, recent
discussions I held with intellectuals in New Delhi and elsewhere suggest to
me that foreign policy specialists in this ascending power are still
fundamentally thinking through their role in the world, especially
vis-à-vis the United States, China, and what they call West Asia (i.e., the
Middle East).
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India's Prime Minister
Narenda Modi (C) took a selfie in August 2015 with UAE's Minister of
Higher Education and Scientific Research Sheikh Hamdan bin Mubarak Al
Nahyan (L) as they toured the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque in Abu Dhabi.
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Although the first two countries rightly attract most attention, the
Middle East presents acute challenges to India – plus a dash of
opportunity. Here's a review of principal connections to that volatile
region:
Islamism: Islamic influence has historically nearly always moved
from the Middle East to other regions, including South Asia, and almost
never the reverse. At present, that is the case with the Islamist doctrine
– the contention that to become rich and strong, Muslims must revert to a
medieval model and fully apply Islamic laws – which bellows out most
strongly from Saudi Arabia and Iran targeting, respectively, Sunni and
Shiite Muslims worldwide. Their influence radicalizes traditionally
moderate Muslim populations in many regions (such as the Balkans and
Indonesia) and carries extraordinarily dire implications for India, whose
vast Muslim community of 177 million represents far and away the largest
religious minority in the world. (The 67 million Christians in China rank second.)
Iranian aggression: Two factors inspire a favorable Indian
attitude toward Iran and explain New Delhi's assiduous efforts for good
relations with Tehran: deep historic cultural ties and the hostile Pakistan
state that sits between them. Fine, but unless kept in check, with the
Government of India standing up for its interests and rights, this
predisposition can degenerate into appeasement. The Iranian regime has
already deployed
violence in India, its bellicosity threatens the energy supplies India
depends on from leaving the Persian Gulf, and its drive for nuclear weapons
destabilizes the entire region. In this light, New Delhi having signed it
first-ever defense agreement with Qatar in
2008 and its second with Saudi
Arabia in 2014, two Iran-endangered states, is positive, whereas deepening
Indian investment into Iran's Chabahar port area will likely hamstring
Indian policy.
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Iranian agents bombed
an Israeli diplomat's vehicle in New Delhi in February 2013, wounding
two.
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Goading Pakistan: Riyadh's money supports Pakistani confrontation
with India in two key ways: by massively funding Islamic schools (madrassahs)
that churn out radicalized students who, having memorized the Koran but
lacking modern skills, serve as jihad fodder; and by generously helping to
pay for the "Islamic" nuclear bomb that, with its exclusively
India-centric purpose, threatens the country since 1998.
Trade and expatriates: As the world's third
largest importer of crude oil, India both depends on the Middle East
and is needed by it to sell to. The $150 billion trade with just the six
GCC countries made up about a fifth of India's annual trade even as Indians
are among the largest direct investors in Persian
Gulf real estate. Indian workers in the Persian Gulf countries number
about 6.5 million and are an important source to India of both financial
remittances (estimated at US$35
billion a year) and of Wahhabi influence.
 Alliance with Israel: Growing
relations with the Jewish state offer a singularly bright note. India's
population may be over 150 times larger than Israel's (1,300 million vs. 8
million) but the two countries share important qualities. Most profoundly,
their populations adhere to an ancient, non-proselytizing religion. Both
practice democracy and secularism, ally with the United States, and possess
nuclear weapons. Both have substantial Muslim minorities (14 percent in
India, 19 percent in Israel) whose loyalties remain in question as both
countries face a potential existential threat from a Muslim state
(Pakistan, Iran).
Beyond these generalities, each country has specific benefits to offer
the other: The two states can share intelligence. Jerusalem can help with
access in Washington, New Delhi can help with access for what remains of
the non-aligned movement. In areas where Israel is a world leader, such as
water technology, medicine, security, and hi-tech innovation, Indians need
what Israelis have to offer even as Israelis need the vast Indian market.
Indeed, India's government is about to purchase US$3 billion in Israeli
military hardware, Israel's largest-ever sale.
Already important, the India-Middle East relationship is growing with
time in dangers and potential. The question looming ahead is how well
Indians can derive from West Asia what benefits them while avoiding what's
toxic. Given the many complexities of that tie, this will not be easy.
Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of the Middle
East Forum. © 2016 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
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