Dutch
Intelligence: Competition Could Fuel Jihadi Plots
by Abigail R. Esman
Special to IPT News
April 27, 2016
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 A "large scale,
spectacular attack in Europe or the US": this is the prediction of the
Netherlands' Intelligence Service (AIVD). And, they say, it could
happen very soon.
The AIVD's report on 2015, released last week, analyzes the threat
of terrorism, cyber-terrorism, and other national security issues based on
the past year's events and global intelligence-gathering. The agency
found that ongoing competition between jihadist groups is proving even more
dangerous than the threat of continued "lone wolf" attacks and
localized bombings by jihadists who have either returned from the Islamic
State or were inspired by them. That competition, particularly
between al-Qaida and ISIS, is likely to lead to major attacks on the West
in order to "demonstrate to one another that each is the real leader
of jihadism," the AIVD report says. This is particularly crucial for
al-Qaida, which may stage an attack soon in order to re-assert its prestige
and power at a time when ISIS seems to be getting the most attention.
These predictions align with similar warnings from former CIA operative
Brian Fairchild, who last fall also warned of "another 9/11," driven by
rivalry among the terrorist groups.
That rivalry is intensifying as various factions continue to battle for
power in the Levant. Al-Qaida, for instance, recently published a statement accusing ISIS of "lies and
deceit," and describing them as "one of the biggest dangers today
in the jihadi fields." And in a video, al-Qaida leader Ayman al Zawahiri called ISIS
leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, "illegitimate." ISIS,
according to al-Qaida, "invoked the curse of Allah" on its
opponents, specifically on Jabhat al Nusra. Al Nusra, which has
pledged allegiance to al-Qaida, is considered another powerful rival of
ISIS.
Like the AIVD's 2005 report, "From Dawa To Jihad," now
something of a classic in the literature about the radicalization of
Western Muslims, many insights presented in this year's overview are likely
to be taken seriously by intelligence agencies and counter-terrorism
strategists globally. Alongside concerns about a major attack in the
near-term, for instance, the AIVD report offers an analysis of the
complexities of Islamic terrorism at this moment – and the vastness of its
reach.
Those complexities again put the lie to notions that Islamic extremism
breeds in impoverished neighborhoods, among the unemployed and
disenfranchised. They defy, too, ideas that immigration is to blame, or
that simply "closing the borders" will solve the threat. As the
report notes:
"The attacks in Europe present a disturbing illustration
of the threat Europe currently faces: people from our own homelands, who
grew up here and mostly were radicalized here, stand ready and willing to
take up weapons against the West [....] So, too are jihadists who
return from the battlefields of jihad prepared to perpetrate similar
atrocities [at home] – and jihadists who had planned to join the foreign
battle, but never succeeded [in making the trip]. Young, inexperienced
jihadists can perpetrate attacks, but those jihad-veterans known to
intelligence officials and who have long been quiet may also suddenly come
roaring back."
Similarly, "attacks could be planned and attackers sent from
outside Europe, or they can be planned and activated from within; they
could be major attacks, arranged by professionals far in advance, or
relatively simple and small-scale," the AIVD report says. "The
threat can come from organized groups and networks sent in to commit
attacks but also by individuals or small groups who sympathize with a
certain jihadist group."
Moreover, the terrorist group Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN), which often is
misleadingly characterized as "moderate," poses an additional
threat. "JaN is a jihadist organization connected with al-Qaida and
whose purpose, in part, is to commit attacks against the West," the
report says.
And while the death of many al-Qaida leaders may have caused some
disruption, this does not mean that the organization is weakened, or that
the threat of another al-Qaida attack against the West has vanished.
Rather, battling for the mantle of dominant jihadi group could strengthen
its determination to wage spectacular attacks.
And it isn't just violent attacks. While the AIVD has found a rising
interest among Dutch Muslims in obtaining weapons, the agency notes that in
at least one case, the purpose was to perform a series of armed robberies
in order to finance terrorist groups in Syria.
What is certain is that Salafism, the radical Islamic ideology that
supports violent jihad, is very much on the rise in the Netherlands. Added
to this development is the ISIS propaganda machine, which the report's
authors say, sends the message that terrorism is a form of heroism.
Combined, the two forces stand to raise radicalization and the probable
involvement in terrorism in the homeland.
For the Dutch, as for other Europeans, the danger does not just
come from jihadists at home and those in Syria. Belgium, with its many
extremist and terrorist groups, is just across the Dutch border. Paris is a
short, high-speed train ride away. And as officials increasingly
crack down in those two countries, the chances are great that terrorists
there will travel elsewhere, looking for the nearest place to hide – and
kill. The result is a multi-pronged threat that hovers over the
country, and increasingly, over Europe.
Abigail R. Esman, the author, most recently, of Radical State: How Jihad Is Winning Over Democracy in
the West (Praeger, 2010), is a freelance writer based in New
York and the Netherlands.
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