|
|
Follow the Middle East Forum
|
|
|
|
Related Articles
Islamic
State Moves to Libya
|
|
|
Share:  
|
  Be the first of
your friends to like this.
Excerpt of an article
originally published under the title "Islamic State Moves to Libya
with the Promise of Fresh Plunder."
... The importance of the Islamic State holding [in Libya] derives
from its location and the number of fighters under Islamic State command
in the area.
Islamic State controls an area of about 200km around the city of Sirte
on the Libyan coast. The greater part of this area was secured last year
against the backdrop of Islamic State setbacks in Iraq and Syria, and
general chaos in Libya. The location of Sirte offers the possibility for
Islamic State of infiltration into Europe, sub-Saharan Africa and the
Maghreb. Sirte was the birthplace of former dictator Muammar Gaddafi. It
has extensive infrastructure, including an international airport, a
seaport and oil installations.
Islamic State is thought to have about 4000 to 5000 fighters in Sirte,
and is recruiting African migrants making their way to the coast. The
movement also derives the depth of its support in the Sirte area from the
loyalty of tribesmen Clearly, the goal is to seek to replicate the model
for success in Iraq and Syria: once a territorial base is established, a
military force can be built up that can be used aggressively to expand
the holding.
|
Members
of Islamic State parade through Libya's coastal city of Sirte in a
photo released by the Islamist media outlet Welayat Tarablos.
|
Islamic State achieved its greatest successes this way, when its
forces swept from eastern Syria into Iraq in 2014. In Libya, as in these
countries, central government effectively has collapsed and the country
is in a state of civil war. Two rival governments vie for power: an
internationally recognised authority in Tobruk in the east and an
Islamist de facto power in the capital, Tripoli, in the west.
The Islamic State area of control is situated between the two. The
organisation hopes to expand east and west. Its immediate targets are the
city of Misrata, halfway between Sirte and Tripoli, and Ajdabiya to the
east, near the Sidr oil port and the refinery at Ras Lanuff. Notably,
Islamic State propaganda has begun to place increased stress on its
Libyan holding. New recruits are being encouraged to head for this area
rather than for the Levant. Some prominent commanders of the movement are
reported to have relocated to Libya, too.
As in Iraq, Islamic State has
found support in Libya from former regime loyalists.
|
Islamic State was able to take Sirte last year because it faced little
resistance. The local tribes were largely affiliated with the Gaddafi
regime and had little reason for loyalty to either of the administrations
in the country. Indeed, Islamic State may serve a purpose as a new
structure of loyalty and protection for them, analogous to the process in
which Sunni former loyalists of the Saddam regime found a home with
Islamic State in Iraq.
For a while, both Libyan governments and the West appeared content to
let Islamic State fester in its small desert domain. The Tripoli and
Tobruk governments are mainly concerned with ruling their own areas
rather than striking out against one another. However, as Islamic State
prepares to expand towards areas vital for the Libyan oil industry, the
issue becomes more urgent and has begun to appear on the radar screens of
European policymakers.
In February, US special forces carried out a raid on the town of
Sabratha in which 40 Islamic State men were killed. Reports have appeared
in the British and French media concerning the presence of special forces
from both countries close to Islamic State's holding in Sirte. British
and French aircraft are carrying out reconnaissance missions over Sirte. Le
Monde described what it termed a "secret war" being
conducted by French intelligence and special forces personnel against
Islamic State on Libyan soil.
At the same time, there appears to be no prospect of a large-scale
involvement of Western forces on the ground to vanquish Islamic State in
Libya. Rather, the strategy appears to resemble that employed in Syria
and Iraq: namely, use air power to partner with local allies identified
by intelligence and bolstered by the discreet presence of Western special
forces.
Attempts to bring together the two rival administrations in Libya are
ongoing but have run aground. An agreement reached for a unity government
on December 17 remains unimplemented.
At the same time, the two governing entities with their Western
support are far from helpless, and Islamic State, with its 5000 fighters,
is far from invincible. This means the Islamic State enclave is unlikely
to score major territorial advances. But it is also unlikely to
disappear.
Ultimately, Islamic State is part of a much broader problem: the
collapse and fragmentation of several formerly centralised Arab states.
It grows and flourishes in the environments left by this collapse. Will
McCants, an expert on Islamic State and Sunni Islamism recently said more
generally that the record suggested such movements tended to overreach
themselves. Their inability to accept a limited role leads to their
enemies uniting to destroy them.
This may well be the final fate to be suffered by Islamic State. In
the interim period, however, it remains powerful and dangerous. ...
Jonathan Spyer is director of the
Rubin Center for Research in International Affairs and a fellow at the
Middle East Forum.
|
|
|
|
|
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment