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Steven Emerson,
Executive Director
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November 7, 2016
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This article first appeared in Newsmax.
Pete
Hoekstra: US Intel Is Fighting Blind Against ISIS
by Pete Hoekstra
Newsmax
November 4, 2016
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Gathering intelligence about the plans, intentions, and capabilities of
one's enemies has always been difficult. The United States has always
committed to do exactly that. The financial investment has been tremendous.
The U.S. ability to utilize breathtaking tools to steal and manipulate
electronic communications and data, as well as operating in the cyber world
has proven effective. Spy satellites have unbelievable methods to penetrate
enemies' defenses, and to be able to see the unseeable.
The intelligence community now trains skilled professionals to
"connect the dots" from these divergent data sources. These are
remarkable capabilities of modern technology and human analysis that is
being implemented by the U.S. to keep its citizens safe, but there is a
massive gap.
Throughout time there has always been one indispensible tool of
espionage – the human spy (also known as HUMINT, or human intelligence).
History has proven time and again that human intelligence is the focal
point of great intelligence. It is dangerous and risky, yet fundamental to
a successful integrated intelligence effort.
In Iraq, the lack of substantial human intelligence resulted in the
mistake of assessing that Iraq had acquired weapons of mass destruction
(WMD). Signals intelligence (SIGINT) and imagery intelligence (IMINT) had
presented a compelling case. Human intelligence was almost non-existent.
The result, a wrong conclusion based on partial information.
It is crucial to note that spy networks take years to validate and
develop. It is not something you can easily turn on and off. As the United
States now enters the next phase of the war against ISIS, it's time to
rebuild our HUMINT capabilities, to be our eyes and ears in the Middle East
and Africa.
Any objective analysis of today's HUMINT capabilities will indicate that
the U.S. is almost blind against the Islamic State.
President Bill Clinton's decision to reduce reliance on HUMINT in the
1990's because of the inherent risk has left analysts forced to analyze
situations with limited information. The 1990's action left us weakened but
not blind.
More recently, severe errors were made. Egypt and Libya were two
countries that provided the U.S. with extensive HUMINT capabilities. Egypt
and Libya have now been marginalized as sources. The U.S. support for
overthrowing Mubarak in Egypt has limited cooperation since then, and has
resulted in Egypt growing closer to Russia. Correspondingly, HUMINT
assistance was eliminated in Libya. When the U.S. overthrew Gaddafi they
also destroyed Libya's HUMINT network that had been of substantial help.
Other U.S. "allies" in the region are currently being called
into question. Can the U.S. rely on obtaining substantial intelligence from
states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar who are known for supporting the Islamic
State? Are there any other options for the U.S.?
Turkey constantly disagrees with U.S. policy vis-a-vis the Kurds. Their
inability to back the 2003 war in Iraq signals their limited reliability
and cooperation in defeating ISIS today.
Support from Iraq proves improbable that the Shia-dominated government
in Baghdad, a proxy for Iran, will not afford the U.S. much help.
Syria is now a failed state.
The bottom line is, after being involved in a decades-long war against
radical jihadists, America has lost almost all of its HUMINT capabilities
in the region. The only real and reliable allies in the region today are
Israel and Jordan.
After losing capabilities in Egypt, Libya, and Syria, recognizing the
limitations and reliability of Saudi Arabia and Qatar due to their ties to
ISIS, and the complex and arduous relationships that the U.S. has with
Turkey and Iraq, the outlook is grave.
Those who know and understand the ominous threat of ISIS are the
countries in that region. Today they are not aligned to provide the HIMINT
that America needs to keep the country safe.
The next president will make decisions on how to confront, contain, and
ultimately defeat ISIS with one hand behind their back. They will not have
the one profound asset, human intelligence, which will help the President
of the United States eradicate ISIS and other jihadist groups from the
world.
Our next President will be forced to make tactical and strategic
decisions with limited insights into the threat.
The decisions in the 1990s by President Bill Clinton and the actions by
the Obama Administration will handicap future Presidents because of the
destruction of almost all HUMINT in the Middle East and Northern Africa.
It will be important for the next President and the American people to
know of the limited resources and information that will be available as
decisions are made. The loss of HUMINT will practically guarantee that more
"mistakes" will be made.
Pete Hoekstra is the Shillman Senior Fellow at the Investigative
Project on Terrorism and the former Chairman of the U.S. House Intelligence
Committee. He is the author of "Architects
of Disaster: The Destruction of Libya."
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