|
Follow the Middle East Forum
|
|
Tackling the
Middle East after the Election
|
|
Share:
|
Be the first of your friends to like this.
The next U.S. president will have a difficult job in the Middle East.
The Obama administration's failure to appreciate the long-term consequences
of its actions (and inactions) have allowed forces unfriendly to the United
States to make unprecedented strategic, political, and even territorial
gains.
The Obama administration's recently reaffirmed
strategy toward ISIS has required Iraq's security forces to spend two years
gradually getting the upper
hand hand over an enemy they outnumber well over 10 to 1. Nonetheless,
ISIS is on the verge of losing Mosul. The next administration should
help the Iraqi Government consolidate these gains, even if it means more
boots on the ground. Additionally, it should get over our hang-up about
providing heavy weapons to Kurdish
Peshmerga who have proven themselves loyal U.S. allies time and again.
In Syria, the years-long conflagration and the Obama administration's
failure to deter heavy Russian military intervention has left the next
administration with few good options. The status quo is producing not only
a cataclysmic death toll, but also a massive refugee crisis that threatens
political stability in Europe. One presidential
candidate has proposed no-fly zones and safe-havens, while working to
arm and protect certain, narrowly-defined rebel groups who stand against
both the Assad regime and ISIS. While far from perfect, it beats our
current policy of symbolic gestures.
Unfriendly forces have made major
strategic, political, and territorial gains in the Middle East.
|
A longer-term problem is what to do with the Islamist, increasingly
authoritarian President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, the man
responsible for channeling
the flow of refugees from Syria into Europe. This longstanding NATO
"ally" has
clearly
jumped off the secular democratic train. The historic role of the
military in preserving
secular democracy is a thing of the past.
Erdogan's Turkey is busy establishing itself as an
Islamist force, oppressing
its Kurdish minority, and even threatening to expand into
Iraq and other surrounding areas. The effects are aiding
ISIS and further destabilizing the region. Erdogan nevertheless has the
gall to actively
provoke nearby Russian forces and then call
on NATO for support. This kind of behavior risks drawing the West into
a much larger conflict with Russia.
The next administration will be forced to redefine our relationship with
Turkey. It should work with our European allies to exert maximum pressure
on Erdogan to change course. If he won't, we must disentangle ourselves
from Turkey, including working to end its NATO
membership.
Iran is arguably the gravest immediate and long-term threat to American
security in the region. The Iran
deal is
not working
to moderate the regime or end the threat posed by the Islamic Republic's
nuclear program, and the price
keeps getting higher. The costs now
include ransom payments, allowing Iran access to
ballistic missiles, and increased
Iranian terror financing. Though international sanctions have been
lifted and funds transferred, the U.S. can still back out of the agreement.
The next president must prioritize
the rollback of Iran's aggressive bid for regional hegemony.
|
But this will not be enough — the next president must prioritize the
rollback of Iran's nuclear program, as well as its aggressive bid for
regional hegemony, for which Syria, Iraq, and Yemen are paying a
devastating daily toll. A robust effort to weaken Iran (like opposition to
the Iran deal last year) is sure to command large, bipartisan majorities.
The Iranian regime is
not popular
at home or in the region, and a thousand signs, small
and
large, show its vulnerability. The next administration should use all
its leverage working with our allies and the regime's opponents, internal and
external, to change course. Of course, as the existential threat of a
nuclear-armed Iran draws nearer, the military
option must be considered.
No individual policy decision, or series of decisions, will fix these
problems. As former Secretary of State Dean Acheson said, "At the top
there are no easy choices. All are between evils, the consequences of which
are hard to judge." However, a forward-looking policy that prioritizes
long-term interests over expediency can reassert America's leadership and
help improve our lot in the Middle East, and that of those in the region
who want peace and stability. The U.S. is still the "indispensable
nation."
Clifford Smith is director of the
Middle East Forum's Washington Project.
|
|
|
No comments:
Post a Comment