Friday, May 25, 2012

Eye on Iran: IAEA Finds Higher Enrichment at Iranian Site






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AP: "The U.N. atomic agency has found evidence at an underground bunker in Iran that could mean the country has moved closer to producing the uranium threshold needed to arm nuclear missiles, diplomats said Friday. The International Atomic Energy Agency has found traces of uranium enriched up to 27 percent at Iran's Fordo enrichment plant, the diplomats told The Associated Press. That is still substantially below the 90-percent level needed to make the fissile core of nuclear arms. But it is above Iran's highest-known enrichment grade, which is close to 20 percent, and which already can be turned into weapons-grade material much more quickly than the Islamic Republic's main stockpile, which can only be used for fuel at around 3.5 percent. The diplomats - who demanded anonymity because their information is privileged - said the find did not necessarily mean that Iran was covertly raising its enrichment threshold toward weapons-grade level. They said one likely explanation was that the centrifuges that produce enriched uranium initially over-enriched at the start as technicians adjusted their output." http://t.uani.com/KfWZEQ  

Reuters: "Iran and world powers agreed to meet again next month to try to ease the long standoff over its nuclear work despite achieving scant progress at talks in Baghdad towards resolving the main sticking points of their dispute. At its heart is Iran's insistence on right to enrich uranium and that economic sanctions should be lifted before it shelves activities that could lead to its achieving the capability to develop nuclear weapons. Western powers insist Tehran must first shut down higher-grade enrichment before sanctions could be eased. But both sides have powerful reasons not to abandon diplomacy. The powers want to avert the danger of a new Middle East war raised by Israeli threats to bomb Iran, while Tehran also wants to avoid a looming Western ban on its oil exports... The next meeting, the third in the latest round of talks that began in Istanbul last month after a diplomatic vacuum of 15 months, will be held in Moscow on June 18-19." http://t.uani.com/JYo0P2

Reuters: "The United States will not ease sanctions on Iran before a third round of talks between major powers and Iranian officials about Tehran's nuclear program, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Thursday. 'As we lay the groundwork for these talks, we will keep up the pressure as part of our dual-track approach. All of our sanctions will remain in place and continue to move forward during this period,' she told reporters in Washington hours after talks between Iran and world powers concluded in Baghdad." http://t.uani.com/JxScMs


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Nuclear Program 
  
AFP: "US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Thursday put the burden on Iran to close the gaps with the United States and five other world powers in talks over the Islamic republic's nuclear program. Iran and the six powers closed two days of 'very intense' nuclear talks in Baghdad Thursday with little to show except an agreement to meet again next month in Moscow after sharp disagreements over the way forward. The talks that also involve Britain, France, Germany as well as Russia and China 'were serious,' Clinton said during a press conference with New Zealand Foreign Minister Murray McCully. 'They were an opportunity for the (six powers) to engage on substantive matters with the Iranians but there are clearly gaps in what each side sees as possible,' Clinton said. 'We think that the choice is now Iran's to work close the gaps,' the chief US diplomat added." http://t.uani.com/JxSMJZ

CSM: "Iran has been desperate for years to acquire spare parts for its aging fleet of civilian aircraft. But does it want those parts badly enough to get them in exchange for giving up its prized stockpile of 20-percent-enriched uranium? Apparently not. Or at least, not so far. That is one reason that talks between Iran and the US and other world powers on Iran's nuclear program ended Thursday without any agreement - except to reconvene the talks in Moscow next month. The two days of talks in Baghdad failed to narrow differences between the two sides over how a deal easing international tensions over Iran's nuclear program should look. Iran wants a significant easing of the existing and looming sanctions on its economy, including its life-blood petroleum industry, in exchange for any concessions." http://t.uani.com/KZuWH9  

AFP: "Iran's lead nuclear negotiator had a rare 'chat' with the head of the US delegation after talks between Tehran and world powers over the Islamic republic's nuclear programme Thursday, officials said. The 'brief encounter' came after Iran rebuffed a US offer of face-to-face discussions between Wendy Sherman and her counterpart Saeed Jalili at the last talks between Iran and world powers in Istanbul last month. 'Jalili paused to chat with Sherman as they were leaving one of the plenaries,' a US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. A Western diplomat added that there was a 'brief encounter as the session wrapped up and people were heading out.'" http://t.uani.com/JxUECE

Sanctions

WSJ: "A European Union ban on Iran's oil could have major consequences for European oil companies in Asia, as little-understood provisions in the sanction law could see them facing investigation despite their best efforts to stay legal. EU oil companies and their overseas units cannot buy, import into the EU or transport even tiny amounts of crude or refined oil of Iranian origin under rules coming into effect on July 1. However, the way many oil transactions are carried out in Asia mean they could inadvertently break the rules, and even their best efforts to comply will be further undermined by a widespread industry practice of blending fuel oil from several sources. A major component of Iran's oil exports is fuel oil, used to power ship engines or in power stations." http://t.uani.com/KKYCIr

Human Rights

Guardian: "America's annual human rights report describes 2011 as a 'tumultuous and momentous year' of change, from the Arab spring to the dramatic political opening in Burma which may yet inspire what it calls other closed societies - from Iran to North Korea and Eritrea - to open up... The 2011 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices made strong criticisms of the situation in China, Russia and several countries in Africa. It had particularly harshly worded condemnation of Iran and Syria, two countries where the US has made it clear it would like to see a change of government." http://t.uani.com/JYlKHv

Foreign Affairs

NYT: "Iran's eagerness to shower money on Lebanon when its own finances are being squeezed by sanctions is the latest indication of just how worried Tehran is at the prospect that Syria's leader, Bashar al-Assad, could fall. Iran relies on Syria as its bridge to the Arab world, and as a crucial strategic partner in confronting Israel. But the Arab revolts have shaken Tehran's calculations, with Mr. Assad unable to vanquish an uprising that is in its 15th month. Iran's ardent courtship of the Lebanese government indicates that Tehran is scrambling to find a replacement for its closest Arab ally, politicians, diplomats and analysts say. It is not only financing public projects, but also seeking to forge closer ties through cultural, military and economic agreements. The challenge for Iran's leaders is that many Lebanese - including the residents of Tannourine, the site of the proposed hydroelectric dam - squirm in that embrace. They see Iran's gestures not as a show of good will, but as a stealth cultural and military colonization." http://t.uani.com/MAMoDG  

WSJ: "Iran has signed an agreement to supply oil products during 2012 and 2013 to Ecuador, the Andean nation's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Integration, Ricardo Patino, said Thursday in a press release. The agreement was signed on Wednesday by Patino and Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi. Patino also met in Tehran with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other high-level officials from the Iranian government. Patino was visiting Tehran to review the agreements signed in January between the two countries." http://t.uani.com/JYqrRO  

CNN: "The tiny nation of Jordan may be one of the most important U.S. allies in the Middle East, but these days trouble is brewing from growing al Qaeda threats in the region. In several days of talking here with senior U.S. military, diplomatic and Jordanian officials, the word most often heard is 'instability.' What worries Jordan is that regional stability could be shaken even more by unrest in neighboring Syria and also by Iran's nuclear intentions. And the Syria and Iran problems increasingly may be linked." http://t.uani.com/JYkcNK

Opinion & Analysis

Aaron David Miller in CNN: "The Baghdad talks over Iran's nuclear program concluded inconclusively with a decision to continue negotiating in Moscow next month. How could they have ended otherwise? Too much suspicion, mistrust and too many complex issues to imagine an early breakthrough. At the same time, the uncertainties reflect something else too. Let me make a prediction. There will be no war with Iran in 2012 and no comprehensive deal on the nuclear issue either. Sanctions have forced the Iranians to alter the pace of its nuclear program but not to abandon it. Right now it's in everyone's interest to defuse tensions, and to paraphrase Winston Churchill, to jaw-jaw rather than wah-wah. Unless Iran is prepared to give up its quest for nukes (and it isn't), we've averted war but not eliminated the threat. Think 2013. For the past six months, the relationship between Iran and the West has been defined by covert war and much talk of an overt one. For the next six, the trope will be 'let's make a deal.' The reasons aren't hard to divine. First, sanctions are taking their toll and are on the verge of getting tougher. In early July, the Europeans will impose additional oil sanctions. Second, the position of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been strengthened as a result of parliamentary elections and mullah maneuvering. If he were inclined to show flexibility, the decider-in-chief is in a better position to do it now. And third, let's face it, nobody -- not the Iranians, the Europeans, the Obama administration, not even the Israelis, particularly if they have to do it alone -- wants a war. All of these factors have combined to create an opening for that almighty and much-revered diplomatic deus ex machina: the process. To be kind, that's just another word for describing how to manage a problem you can't resolve today. The desire to shift from talk of war to actual talk and negotiations is both logical and understandable. In fact, given the limited options right now, a process is much better than the alternative. The hope is that negotiations can create an opening for a small deal on the nuclear issue in which Iran would agree to enrich uranium at much reduced levels, agree to inspections and perhaps even export its stockpile of weapons-grade material out of the country in return for an easing of some of the less onerous sanctions. This incremental approach, tiny steps for tiny feet, would buy time and space to enhance confidence and create trust. It might even pave the way for broader discussions on other key issues that divide Iran and the West. Maybe even a grander bargain might follow. The only problem with this approach is that its chances of success are dubious. In coming weeks and months, the negotiating process may well produce limited understandings. But it's hard to see how these will turn into a sustainable deal that can convince the West, let alone the Israelis, that Iran has given up its quest for nukes. Three major realities will make it all the harder." http://t.uani.com/JrExtC

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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