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Watching the new state of South Sudan fall into chaos
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When the state of South Sudan came into
existence last July, with great fanfare, Israel was one of the first nations
to recognize it, having provided support for South Sudanese leaders since the
1960s during the first civil war. Indeed, in late December, Salva Kiir
Mayardit - the president of South Sudan - came to
Jerusalem, where he discussed the unique prospect of locating the
country's embassy there. It was therefore no surprise that President Shimon
Peres spoke so enthusiastically of the visit as a "moving and historic
moment" for him and Israel.
Now, less than a year later, in light of
Israel's plans to deport South Sudanese refugees, it is worth taking a look
at how the world's youngest nation is faring.
Arguably, the worst problem the country faces
is tribalism, despite the unity that was cultivated among South Sudanese
rebels during decades of resistance to Khartoum's aggressive campaigns of
Islamization against the animists and Christians in the south, prior to
independence.
Early signs of this malaise became apparent
when low-level clashes between the Lou Nuer and Murle tribes in Jonglei state
in the east of the country - going
as far back as 2009 - suddenly intensified in August 2011. By the start
of 2012, over
3,000 were dead and more than 100,000 displaced. The origins of these
tensions lie in the mutual theft of cattle.
In an attempt to calm tensions, an agreement was
signed early this month to end the violence, by tribal leaders representing
six ethnic groups in Jonglei: the Dinka (who are regarded as politically
dominant in South Sudan's government), Kachipo, Jie, Nuer, Anyuak and Murle.
Stability in Jonglei is crucial to South
Sudan's economic future, because it offers a potential pipeline
route that can go through Ethiopia to Djibouti, making it possible for
the country to export its vast oil reserves without having to rely on its
northern neighbor. However, Sudan has not only imposed heavy transit fees on
South Sudan; it has also permitted itself the liberty of seizing part of the
oil production when those fees haven't been paid.
Yet the unilateral decision to respond to
Sudan's policies by suspending oil production before it had laid an
alternative pipeline can only be described as folly on the part of the
leadership in Juba, the capital.
As a confidential World Bank
report recently leaked to the Sudan Tribune revealed, the shutdown of the
oil industry - together with the austerity measures subsequently adopted by
the government - could increase the poverty rate from 51 percent this year to
83 percent by 2013, while infant mortality is expected to double in the same
period.
The reason such startling statistics could
become reality is that, like post-Saddam Iraq, South Sudan is extremely
dependent on petroleum, with oil exports accounting for 98 percent of
government revenue. Unfortunately, Mayardit and his cabinet appear to be
oblivious to the implications of their decision-making.
Meanwhile, it is not only in the rural areas
of South Sudan that tribalism is evident. The phenomenon extends even to the
university campus in the capital. As the Dubai newspaper
The National reported, a minor incident at a soccer match on March 27
among Juba University alumni led to a square-off between 100 students the
following morning. Since then, the university has been closed.
The newspaper also interviewed the president
of the student union at the university, Ajang Ajang, who pointed out that
"people still think about their tribes first, their nation second."
Many members of the union sought to expel him after he decided to ban tribal
associations on campus in February.
If such tribalism is evident on the country's
main university campus among students who will likely constitute South
Sudan's future elite, then it should come as no surprise that the president
appears to be displaying authoritarian tendencies.
For when sectarianism and tribalism become
institutionalized, it often follows that politicians become preoccupied with
holding on to personal rewards of power instead of tackling national
problems, and so a leading figure will probably emerge to assert himself as a
strongman. Mayardit has been behaving in precisely this manner.
For example, The
National recently highlighted the case of James Okuk, an employee of
South Sudan's foreign ministry. When he returned home from a trip to Brazil
in October he was arrested by police, held at an abandoned house for four
days and charged with "offending the president" simply because he
wrote some articles critical of Mayardit's tenure.
Okuk is now on trial. The case may partly
have to do with the fact that Okuk's uncle is Lam Akol, who broke away from
the country's ruling political faction - the Sudan People's Liberation
Movement (SPLM ) - to form the Sudan People's Liberation Movement: Democratic
Change (SPLM-DC ) in 2009.
Akol has reportedly been resented
by the Dinkas who dominate the SPLM for quite some time, but he has the
support of the Shilluk people of the country's northeast. Of course, Akol's
residing in Khartoum while his children finish their schooling there hardly
helps his image.
When South Sudan declared independence, there
were high hopes for a model democratic country in sub-Saharan Africa, but
developments so far point to a country plagued by tribalism, government authoritarianism
and disastrous economic policies that could greatly exacerbate poverty levels
in the country, such that one may have to agree with the World Bank's fears
of a "state collapse." A bleak outlook indeed.
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a student at
Brasenose College, Oxford University, and an adjunct fellow at the Middle
East Forum.
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