Thursday, June 21, 2012

Eye on Iran: Iran Oil Exports Fall More in June, Sanctions Bite






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Reuters: "Iranian oil exports are falling further in June as more customers in Europe and Asia stop or scale back purchases ahead of European Union sanctions aimed at slowing Tehran's nuclear program. Crude exports from Iran so far this month have dropped to between 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) and 1.3 million bpd, according to a firm that tracks oil shipments and sources at oil companies. The latest decline, if confirmed, indicates Iran may have lost as much as 1 million bpd of oil exports - worth around $90 million a day - due to the threat of an EU ban starting July 1 which also bars EU insurance firms from covering Iran's exports... Iran's crude shipments in May were between 1.5 million bpd and 1.6 million bpd, according to the same sources, who declined to be identified by name because they are not authorized to speak to the media... Last year, Iranian crude exports were running at about 2 million-2.2 million bpd with total production, including domestic consumption, at 3.5 million-3.6 million bpd." http://t.uani.com/PwOo1f

NYT: "With high-stakes negotiations over Iran's nuclear program at an impasse, the Obama administration is under mounting pressure to rethink a diplomatic exercise that many argue is simply stringing along the rest of the world. After two days of fruitless talks in Moscow, negotiators for the United States and other major powers did not even schedule another high-level meeting with Iran, committing only to a lower-level session in July to go over the technical details of a proposal to suspend the enrichment of uranium that Iran has already rejected in principle. Dennis B. Ross, a former senior White House adviser on Iran, said he believed the negotiations had become a trap, allowing Iran to continue enriching nuclear fuel while the two sides fail to agree on even interim measures to slow the Iranian program. The major powers, he said, should scrap the step-by-step approach in favor of a comprehensive deal that would test Iran's sincerity, but could also hasten a military confrontation." http://t.uani.com/KASmXt

AFP: "Iran's uranium enrichment effort has picked up speed and Tehran could produce enough fissile material needed for a nuclear weapon within four months, experts told US lawmakers on Wednesday. The rate of Iran's uranium enrichment has accelerated despite cyber sabotage from the Stuxnet virus in 2009, the experts said. Based on the findings of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 'it's clear that Iran could produce a nuclear weapon very quickly should it wish to do so,' said Stephen Rademaker of the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington. Iran has produced 3,345 kilos of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent, according to the IAEA, which if it was enriched further would provide enough uranium for at least two atomic bombs, Rademaker told the House Armed Services Committee. If the Iran leadership decided to go forward, 'it would take them 35 to 106 days to actually have the fissile material for a weapon,' he said." http://t.uani.com/LivQnt
MTN Action Alert 
Nuclear Program 
  
Reuters: "A U.S. security institute published new satellite imagery on Wednesday which it said appeared to show further activity, including removing earth, to clean up an Iranian military site the U.N. nuclear watchdog wants to inspect. Parchin, which Iran says is a conventional military complex, is at the center of Western allegations that Iran has conducted experiments - possibly a decade ago - that could help develop atom bombs. Iran denies any such ambition. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) published the latest satellite picture a day after Iran and six world powers failed to make progress on their decade-old nuclear dispute during two days of talks in Moscow." http://t.uani.com/PzVFgN

CBS: "A nuclear armed Iran would start a regional arms race that would destabilize the region, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said. 'If Iran has a nuclear weapon, I can absolutely bet on it and know I will win, they will be in the market within hours. And that is going to create a cascade of difficult challenges for us and for Israel and for all of our friends and partners,' Clinton told Charlie Rose in a joint interview conducted Wednesday with former Secretary of State James Baker. Baker said he supported the administration's current efforts to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon but then bluntly said 'at the end of the day, if we don't get it done the way the administration is working on it now, which I totally agree with, then we ought to take them out.'" http://t.uani.com/Mlynvl

WSJ: "Israel is unlikely to launch a strike on Iran as long as sanctions on Tehran intensify and diplomatic efforts continue, despite the failure of international talks in Moscow this week, Israeli officials and security experts said. That puts Israeli leaders in a bind: While lack of progress on diplomatic attempts to curb Iran's nuclear program bolsters Israel's position that Tehran won't compromise, it needs to wait for diplomacy and sanctions to be exhausted so it can better persuade others to join it in taking tougher measures, analysts said. 'As long as the international community is willing to continue, Israel won't say, Stop. That's unthinkable,' an Israeli official said. 'If the negotiations don't bring Iran to concessions, at least there will be a clear-cut case showing that Iran does not want to cooperate.'" http://t.uani.com/MNclgS

Reuters: "Israel responded on Wednesday to a lack of progress in talks aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program by demanding that the West impose stiffer economic sanctions on Tehran and hinting anew that a military option was still on the table. Six world powers and Iran failed to secure a breakthrough at talks in Moscow this week, the third round under the latest diplomatic initiative, and set no date for more political negotiations. 'It is time for the United States and Western powers to impose more severe sanctions in the oil embargo and financial sectors in order to stop Iran's nuclear development program,' Vice Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz of the centrist Kadima party said in a written statement after talks in Washington with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton." http://t.uani.com/LEXC8u

CSM: "Even as the Pentagon draws down US troops in Afghanistan, it plans to base a sizable contingent of forces in nearby Kuwait - with the clear purpose of sending a signal to Iran. The signal - that the United States plan to maintain a credible force in the region - comes at a vital time for the US military, says Michael Singh, a former senior adviser for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council. 'The Middle East is very turbulent right now - it's hard to even imagine all of the different types of conflicts that will challenge our interests,' adds Mr. Singh." http://t.uani.com/NcSdpj

Reuters: "The Iranian navy has announced plans to build more warships and increase its presence in international waters at a time of growing tension in the Middle East over Tehran's nuclear program. Navy commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said the deployments would protect Iranian cargo ships around the world, in particular in the Gulf of Aden and the northern part of the Indian Ocean, according to state news agency IRNA. The navy wanted to guard Iranian ships from Somali pirates, the report said... The navy's deputy chief for technical affairs said the force planned to build 10 more vessels, including destroyers and missile-launching frigates, Press TV said." http://t.uani.com/MlvfQ6

Sanctions


Reuters: "China is moving to cut its imports of Iranian oil, tracking earlier efforts by countries such as India, Japan and South Korea which won them exemptions from tough new U.S. sanctions, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Wednesday. The United States has already exempted a number of major countries from the new sanctions, which it may impose starting on June 28 as Washington's most ambitious measure yet to force Iran to curtail its nuclear program by reducing its oil export sales. China, which alone buys as much as a fifth of Iran's crude exports, has not yet been granted a similar reprieve, but Clinton hinted on Wednesday that one could be in the works. 'We've seen China slowly but surely take actions,' Clinton said in an appearance with former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker, detailing the U.S.-led effort to sanction Iran for its nuclear program. 'I have to certify under American laws whether or not countries are reducing their purchases of crude oil from Iran and I was able to certify that India was, Japan was, South Korea was,' Clinton said. 'And we think, based on the latest data, that China is also moving in that direction,' Clinton said." http://t.uani.com/KW5xic

Reuters: "China's crude imports from Iran recovered in May to offset a first-quarter plunge in shipments to nearly half the annual average, after the two nations resolved a wrangle over the terms of annual oil sale contracts. Yet imports in the first five months fell a quarter from a year ago, with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton saying China was slowly but surely taking action to cut reliance on Iranian crude. Total shipments for the year are expected to stay low as the country's top buyer rejected Tehran's offer of discounted oil." http://t.uani.com/M96tBx

WSJ: "India, after much delay and uncertainty, is ready to move ahead with a rupee payment mechanism designed to bypass U.S sanctions on trade with Tehran, a senior industry executive said Wednesday. Under the move, Indian oil companies that import crude oil from Iran will deposit the payments into rupee accounts held in UCO Bank, and these funds will be used by Iran to pay for agricultural products and medicines from India. 'Around $550 million equivalent [in rupees] will be deposited into the account as a first tranche' in the next couple of days, said Rafeeque Ahmed, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organization. Despite Iranian oil continuing to flow to India, the payments were held back pending formal action on a budget proposal in March that promised tax exemptions for such transactions. Under Indian law, rupee transactions between two domestic entities require a general-service tax, but the finance ministry had offered to treat the rupee payment mechanism differently." http://t.uani.com/KOmKyF

Bloomberg: "Iran's central bank needs a long- term policy to stabilize the domestic foreign-currency market, Shargh reported, citing Omid Karimian, a member of the parliament's economic committee. Recent fluctuations in the value of the dollar to Iran's rial 'are a testimony to the lack of solidity of our economy,' Karimian said, according to the Tehran-based newspaper. Variations show the 'failure' of the central bank's policy, he said, adding that the bank's role mustn't be only to inject dollars into the economy. The dollar was sold for 18,300 rials on the open market yesterday, up 270 rials from the day before, according to the report." http://t.uani.com/LGKcxz

Bloomberg: "Iran's imports of automobile parts decreased by 47.8 percent to $254 million in the first two months of the current Iranian year compared with the same period last year, Shargh reported, citing figures from the country's customs authorities. Iran imported more than 21,100 tons of car parts in the two months starting on March 20, the Tehran-based newspaper said without giving a reason for the decline." http://t.uani.com/LkSA4n

Foreign Affairs


Fars News: "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lashed out at the world powers for their wrong policies, and reiterated his call for the establishment of a new world order based on justice and friendship. 'The widening North-South divide and various crises and worries, including crises of family and identity, wars, occupations and revenge-seeking, endless arms races and economic, moral and ethical crisis and the failure to realize human principles are all the results of the current order and system dominating the world,' Ahmadinejad said, addressing the Rio+20 Earth Summit in Brazil's Rio de Janeiro on Wednesday. 'We must cure such old wounds in the human society by reforming the existing global state and outlining a more transparent prospect for the future,' he added." http://t.uani.com/MkmjHU

Opinion & Analysis

Nicholas Kristof in NYT: "One of the most pernicious misunderstandings in the West about Iranians is that they are dour religious fanatics. About half of Iranians are under the age of 25, and Iran has done a solid job of raising their education levels. I was struck on my 1,700-mile road trip across Iran by how many of them share American values, seeking fun rather than fanaticism. They seem less interested in the mosques than in amusement parks (which are ubiquitous in Iran). 'Young people don't really go to the mosques,' said a 23-year-old man in eastern Iran, cheerfully exaggerating. 'We want more ways to have fun.' He said he drinks - alcohol is illegal but everywhere - and, until recently, used drugs. Iranian officials have suggested that perhaps 10 percent of the population uses illegal drugs, traditionally opium and heroin but increasingly methamphetamines as well. This man had joined the 2009 democracy protests, but then, he said, he was detained and beaten for several days, losing a tooth in the process. That soured him on political activism, and, like many others, he now just wants to go abroad. In the northwest, that sense of hopelessness has led some young Iranians of ethnic Turkish origin to favor seceding and joining Azerbaijan. In soccer games in Tabriz, fans sometimes outrage the authorities by roaring secessionist slogans. You wouldn't think a New Yorker could be made to blush in Tehran, but I was taken aback by the hookup scene of one-night stands: young men with flashy cars troll for women, chat them up and then drive off with them. There is also prostitution, and Tehran's former police chief was arrested in 2008 in a brothel together with six prostitutes... In the 1970s, disgruntled young Iranians rebelled against a corrupt secular regime by embracing an ascetic form of Islam. Now they're rebelling against a corrupt religious regime by embracing personal freedom - in some cases, even sex, drugs and rock 'n' roll. They often also look warmly on the United States, which is quite dizzying." http://t.uani.com/Mw4rdH

Thomas Joscelyn in The Weekly Standard: "Pakistani officials have reportedly captured Naamen Meziche, an al Qaeda operative with an extensive dossier. Meziche plays a significant role in an article ('Al Qaeda's Network in Iran') that I co-authored with my colleague Benjamin Weinthal earlier this year. Reading through the articles describing Meziche's capture that have been published so far, at least two aspects of his story are being either missed entirely or underreported in the American press. First, Meziche was slated to take part in a 2010 Mumbai-style attack on Europe that was ordered by Osama bin Laden himself. Meziche and his co-conspirators were recruited for this plot at the same mosque that gave us the 9/11 Hamburg cell. Indeed, Meziche has extensive ties to the original Hamburg cell... Second, the 2010 Mumbai-style plot has extensive ties to al Qaeda's Iran-based network. And these ties came to light as a result, in part, of the trial of one of Meziche's fellow al Qaeda operatives in Koblenz, Germany. According to the Obama administration's Treasury Department, the Iran-based network is headed by an al Qaeda leader named Yassin al Suri and operates as part of a formerly 'secret' deal between the Iranian regime and al Qaeda. A $10 million reward has been offered for information leading to al Suri's capture. Meziche and his co-conspirators utilized this Iran-based network. In 2009, Meziche and one of his compatriots traveled from Vienna to Tehran and then onto Zahedan - a known hub for al Qaeda activity in eastern Iran, along the border with Afghanistan and Pakistan.  Al Suri has been based in Zahedan, as well as other Iranian cities, for quite some time. Meziche moved to Iran at some point and he was being sheltered there, along with other al Qaeda operatives, as of earlier this year. The New York Times previously reported on this and I did as well. The Iranians were, according intelligence sources cited by the Times, keeping their options open with respect to Meziche. Referring to Meziche and one his al Qaeda accomplices, an official said: 'These two have been involved in al Qaeda external operations activities for some time now.' Citing multiple intelligence sources, the Times added that 'Iran appears to be harboring them in hopes that, when and if they leave, they will cause trouble in the West.' Meziche was reportedly attempting to return to Iran when he was captured inside Pakistan." http://t.uani.com/Mw3GBc

Ilan Berman in The Weekly Standard: "On Wednesday, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad touched down in Brazil for his first state visit to the South American nation since 2009. The ostensible reason is to attend the U.N. Conference on Sustainable Development, a high-profile gathering of more than 100 heads of state taking place in Rio de Janeiro. But high on Ahmadinejad's priority list is an important bit of diplomacy: reinvigorating the once-robust ties between Tehran and Brasilia. For Iran, Brazil is a potential economic lifeline in the face of mounting international pressure. Ahmadinejad has his work cut out for him. Several years ago, when Ignacio Lula de Silva presided over the Brazilian government, Brasilia ranked among Tehran's strongest partners in Latin America. Over the past year-and-a-half, however, relations between the two countries have cooled considerably, much to the chagrin of Iranian officials. The turnaround is attributable to Lula's successor, Dilma Rousseff, whose foreign policy is considerably less ideological than that of her predecessor. A former women's rights activist who spent time in prison, Rousseff has made a point of distancing Brazil from Iran since taking office in January 2011, citing Iran's troubling human rights record. Earlier this year she rebuffed Ahmadinejad when he wanted to make a state visit, and it's unclear she will grant the Iranian president an audience this time out either. Yet if these developments suggest that Brazil is rethinking the prudence of partnership with Iran, the reality is that trade ties between the two countries are still active. Indeed, Brazil represents Iran's largest trading partner in the region. The concern then is that in the future, the Rousseff government could well find it advantageous to renew closer ties with Iran. Iran hopes to spur just such a shift, and Ahmadinejad's Latin American tour has a great deal to do with courting the Rousseff government. If Tehran can thaw relations, then perhaps access to the Brazilian economy will help Iran weather sanctions now being levied against it by the West for its nuclear program. But Iran is also solidifying its presence in Brazil by other means. For instance, along with its terrorist proxy Hezbollah, which maintains a significant presence in the tri-border region where Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina intersect, Iran is involved in various activities, like drug smuggling and money laundering." http://t.uani.com/KPbnGQ

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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