Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Eye on Iran: Setback in Talks on Iran's Nuclear Program in a 'Gulf of Mistrust'






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NYT: "Talks on Iran's disputed nuclear program descended into mistrust and frustration in Moscow on Tuesday, casting doubt on whether the two sides can negotiate a way out of the escalating crisis. After five draining sessions, the European Union foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, said the differences between Iran and the group of six world powers involved in the talks here remained so significant that negotiators did not commit to another high-level meeting. Instead, technical experts from both sides will convene early next month to determine whether there are grounds for further high-level contact. The talks between Iran and the six powers - Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States and Germany - faced daunting obstacles from the outset. Iran has signaled some willingness to scale down its uranium enrichment, a process that can produce nuclear fuel but also the components of a nuclear bomb, and is being squeezed by new rounds of economic sanctions that will take effect on July 1. The sanctions threaten to isolate Tehran further from world oil markets and the international banking system." http://t.uani.com/LDoAgK

WashPost: "The United States and Israel jointly developed a sophisticated computer virus nicknamed Flame that collected intelligence in preparation for cyber-sabotage aimed at slowing Iran's ability to develop a nuclear weapon, according to Western officials with knowledge of the effort. The massive piece of malware secretly mapped and monitored Iran's computer networks, sending back a steady stream of intelligence to prepare for a cyber¬warfare campaign, according to the officials. The effort, involving the National Security Agency, the CIA and Israel's military, has included the use of destructive software such as the Stuxnet virus to cause malfunctions in Iran's nuclear-enrichment equipment. The emerging details about Flame provide new clues to what is thought to be the first sustained campaign of cyber-sabotage against an adversary of the United States. 'This is about preparing the battlefield for another type of covert action,' said one former high-ranking U.S. intelligence official, who added that Flame and Stuxnet were elements of a broader assault that continues today. 'Cyber-collection against the Iranian program is way further down the road than this.'" http://t.uani.com/NOpTOT

Just-Auto: "Deeply conflicting views as to whether or not PSA Peugeot Citroen has halted shipments of vital components to Iranian partner, IKCO, are being set against a widening clamour in the US for General Motors to put pressure on its new French partner to end the relationship with Tehran. Iran Khodro insisted to just-auto this afternoon (19 June) shipments of parts were continuing into ports in the country, with the French automaker previously saying it had suspended delivery of components for the 206 and 405 models until July to comply with European Union and US sanctions. Into the fray has also stepped powerful American lobby, United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), which has been applying intense pressure on GM and Peugeot with the US manufacturer now holding 7% of its French partner. Writing two weeks ago in the US, UANI CEO, Mark Wallace, a former US ambassador to the United Nations noted: 'We again call on GM and Peugeot to take the responsible action of evaluating Peugeot's business in Iran and putting a complete and final end to it.' However, in calls made by just-auto to Tehran today, IKCO insisted ships were docking in Iran, as shown by the production lines continuing to run. 'The evidence shows shipments is continued,' reliable sources in IKCO told just-auto. 'There is not any problem in shipments of Peugeot product parts - shipments of Peugeot are continuing here.' However, PSA remains adamant it has stopped supplying ICKO in accordance with the strict sanctions regime, adopting a robust position concerning Paris' position with Tehran, although it left open the possibility business could restart in September." http://t.uani.com/Mp5NbP
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Nuclear Program 
  
Guardian: "High-level negotiations between Iran and six world powers were suspended after two days of talks in Moscow failed to bridge differences over the future of Iran's nuclear programme. Contacts will now be downgraded to the level of experts from each country and bureaucrats from Brussels and Tehran. However, it was unclear how such technical discussion could help heal a substantial political rift. 'We set out our respective positions in what were detailed, tough and frank exchanges,' said the EU foreign policy chief, Lady Ashton. 'However, it remains clear that there are significant gaps between the substance of the two positions.' 'The choice is Iran's,' she added. 'We expect Iran to decide whether it is willing to make diplomacy work, to focus on reaching agreement on concrete confidence-building steps, and to address the concerns of the international community.' The plan is for technical experts from both sides to meet in Istanbul on 3 July, to 'increase the understanding' of the Iranian positions. After that there would be contacts between deputy negotiators from Iran and Ashton's office, and then between Ashton and the chief Iranian negotiator, Saeed Jalili, to decide whether it was worth resuming talks between Tehran and the six negotiating powers - the UK, US, France, Germany, China and Russia." http://t.uani.com/N8I1Oy

BBC: ""It's a differently-shaped table," noted Baroness Catherine Ashton, the world powers' lead negotiator as she sat down opposite her Iranian counterpart Saeed Jalili. Even this was a problem. Iran's conservative Fars news agency reported that the rectangular negotiating table was more likely to produce tension than the round tables used in previous sets of talks. In principle, the six world powers and Iran met in Moscow to try to resolve the conflict over the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme. In practice, every little detail proved to be an obstacle. On the opening day, the world powers repeated the three specific demands that they made of Iran at the last round of talks held a month ago: stop the enrichment of uranium to 20%; close a heavily-fortified enrichment facility near the city of Qom; and export its stockpile of 20% enriched uranium. 'Stop, shut, and ship,' one Western diplomat explained." http://t.uani.com/KyX5ZH

Sanctions


WSJ: "Sanctions aimed at punishing Iran will begin in two weeks after another round of talks with world powers ended without an agreement by Tehran to curb its nuclear program. The lead negotiators for both sides said the ball was in the other's court after the end of talks here. Catherine Ashton, the European Union's foreign policy chief, and Saeed Jalili, the lead Iranian negotiator, used similar words, saying that the other had 'a choice' to make to get negotiations restarted. Iran had hoped the talks might forestall the looming sanctions. With new penalties now a certainty, the long-running international dispute has entered an unpredictable new phase that will test past Iranian threats to retaliate, including a vow to choke off a key global oil channel, the Strait of Hormuz. In the absence of talks, sanctions also may be the last barrier to a possible Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, a step U.S. officials fear could spark a wider conflict." http://t.uani.com/PrPjjr

Reuters: "Negotiations over Iran's nuclear program will not last indefinitely and Tehran should expect more sanctions if it fails to address international suspicions over the nature of its work, a senior U.S. administration official said on Tuesday. Speaking after two days of discussions in Moscow between Iran and six world powers that failed to produce a breakthrough, the official said Iran needed to take concrete steps to avoid further economic pressure. 'Sanctions will be increasing. We have told the Iranians there will be more pressure coming if this (lack of progress) proceeds forward,' the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity." http://t.uani.com/LzOnep
Reuters: "France said on Tuesday it would continue to strengthen sanctions against Iran after negotiations in Moscow over its nuclear program ended without progress. 'We regret that Iran has still not made the concrete gestures that we were waiting for and that could constitute a first step towards respecting U.N. Security Council and IAEA resolutions,' Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said. He said that pressure on Iran would be increased with the full implementation of a European Union oil embargo beginning on July 1." http://t.uani.com/NPjWBe

Reuters: "At least two of Asia's four top buyers of Iranian crude will keep imports flowing, though at overall reduced rates, as they find ways around an EU ban on insuring tankers carrying the Islamic country's oil. Asia needs oil to feed growing demand and top consumers are reluctant to entirely halt imports from Iran and depend entirely on top exporter Saudi Arabia, especially given that output from other alternative suppliers such as Libya and Iraq has not stabilized. Japan has secured a parliament approval that allows the government to provide insurance cover, while China is asking Iran to take on the risk and deliver the crude on their ships. South Korea and India have yet to find a way out. Together, Japan and China have nominated loadings for as many as 620,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil next month, sources said on Wednesday. A year ago, the Islamic Republic was selling around two-thirds of its crude exports, or roughly 1.45 million bpd, to these four Asian buyers." http://t.uani.com/LBhBq1

Reuters: "China's Unipec, trading arm of top Asian refiner Sinopec Corp, has requested Iran to deliver July-loading crude cargoes to Chinese ports, ahead of a European insurance ban on Iranian oil exports that takes effect from July 1. 'There is a company mandate requesting the July Iranian supplies to be on a delivered basis,' said one oil official. Sources told Reuters that Sinopec, the world's largest Iranian oil buyer, is expected to lift 'a normal volume of oil based on the long-term contract' for July. One source estimated it at 500,000 barrels per day, a level similar to the average amount Sinopec bought from Iran last year. Sinopec buys Iranian oil via two separate contracts, one through its trading arm Unipec, and the other via state oil trader Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp." http://t.uani.com/Mwz0O1

CNN: "China, now the world's largest buyer of Iranian oil, is also the only nation still threatened with U.S. sanctions because of its purchases of Iranian crude. If the United States doesn't grant China a waiver, any Chinese entity that still buys oil from Iran could be banned from doing business in the United States. But analysts say the Obama administration will likely grant the country a waiver rather than risk a trade war. 'We're unlikely to sanction China,' said Robert McNally, head of the Rapidan Group, an energy consultancy. 'We're not going to pick a trade war.'" http://t.uani.com/M3UCod

Bloomberg: "Iran's government may have to abandon efforts to rein in inflation by forbidding producers to increase prices, the Jomhouri Eslami newspaper reported.  The cost of a liter of milk and a kilogram (2.2 pounds) of wheat for local producers are 8,000 rials (0.65 cents) and 5,000 rials respectively, according to the newspaper, which typically reflects the views of the Iranian leadership. Producers can't be expected to continue selling milk to the government at the official prices of 6,300 rials and 4,200 rials, it said. Producer costs rose by between 34 percent and 37 percent in the Iranian year that ended in March, Jomhouri Eslami said, citing central bank figures. International sanctions imposed on Iran to curb its nuclear program have weakened the rial and added to inflationary pressures." http://t.uani.com/KkvDK9

Foreign Affairs


JPost: "Iranian media outlets reported on Tuesday that Iran, Russia, China and Syria are to conduct joint military exercises in Syria next month. The semi-official Fars News outlet, which has ties to the Iranian government, cited 'certain unofficial sources' in its report but did not say what those sources were. The report appears to have originated on Arabic language Syrian media outlet ShamLife, which said the war-games were scheduled in less than a month's time. Other Iranian media outlets, including the Revolutionary Guards-linked Mashregh News and Mehr News, which is owned by the Islamic Ideology Dissemination Organization, also carried the same report on Tuesday, but did not cite any Iranian official sources confirming it." http://t.uani.com/MF6uOf

JTA: "Some 2,000 Brazilian Jews and non-Jews protested Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's presence at Rio + 20, the United Nations summit on sustainable development. Jews, gays, Afro-Latin Americans and human right activists rallied Sunday at the upscale Ipanema seafront to protest Ahmadinejad's visit. Backed by intense drumming by the cultural group AfroReggae, marchers carried signs and banners in English that read 'Rio does not welcome Mahmoud Ahmadinejad' and 'Religious intolerance is not acceptable.'" http://t.uani.com/LDqTQM

AFP: "Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stopped in Bolivia Tuesday en route to a summit in Brazil, to court support from another leftist Latin American nation which has tense ties with the United States. Ahmadinejad had a warm welcome at the airport high in the Andes from his Bolivian counterpart President Evo Morales. Then they headed to the Palacio Quemado presidential palace to hold meetings on cooperation deals. Bilateral cooperation investment in recent years has topped one billion dollars with projects in farming, mining, oil and gas, and health care. Iran also is considering mining lithium at Bolivia's Salar de Uyuni, the world's biggest deposit of the mineral used in laptop and electric car batteries." http://t.uani.com/NPm3os

Opinion & Analysis

WashPost Editorial Board: "Negotiations with Iran about its nuclear program are close to an impasse - an outcome that should surprise no one. At a meeting in Moscow on Monday and Tuesday, Iranian envoys continued to resist a proposal for an interim deal that would stop the most dangerous parts of the program in exchange for modest economic concessions from a coalition composed of the five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany. Iran countered with maximalist demands for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium. 'It remains clear that there are significant gaps,' said a sober statement by the European Union's Catherine Ashton. If there is a positive aspect to this outcome, it is that the United States and its partners appear to be sticking to their position on what Iran must do to open the door to a diplomatic solution - and are prepared to let the process lapse. No further negotiations have been scheduled - only an experts' session early next month to go over technical details, followed by contacts between the deputies and chiefs of the delegations. Western officials say further meetings will depend on whether Iran shows itself ready to carry out the package of steps originally proposed last month, including a freeze of its most advanced form of uranium enrichment, the export of its existing stockpile of that enriched uranium, and the closure of an underground processing facility known as Fordow. 'The choice is Iran's,' said Ms. Ashton's statement. Before Tehran makes that choice, some of the sanctions it has been trying to head off will go into effect, including an E.U. oil embargo and a block on insurance for ships carrying Iranian oil. Already Iranian oil exports, and the country's economy at large, appear to have been significantly damaged in recent months. Since the collapse of negotiations could also prompt Israel to move toward the military action it has been threatening, it's still conceivable that Iranian leader Ali Khamenei will decide to accept the interim package - which would leave most of Iran's enrichment infrastructure in place - rather than risk economic ruin and war. The Obama administration must nevertheless be prepared to take an Iranian 'no' for an answer. It should resist any effort by Russia or other members of the international coalition to weaken the steps that Iran must take, or to grant Tehran major sanctions relief for partial concessions. It should continue to reject recognition of an Iranian 'right' to enrich uranium." http://t.uani.com/MF6OMW

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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