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Egyptian Election: Islamist Victory or Deceptive Strategy?
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Has anyone stopped to ask where the headlines
"Muslim Brotherhood Wins Egypt's Presidential Election!" originate?
They come, of course, straight from the Muslim Brotherhood and its
allies—particularly the Qatar-based Islamist propaganda machine, Al
Jazeera—and were then unquestioningly picked up and spread like wildfire by
the Western mainstream media and talking-heads.
Left unquoted by the Western media are the
many Egyptian analysts that have a different tale to tell—that the secular
candidate, Ahmed Shafiq, has won.
But what does the Muslim Brotherhood have to
benefit by claiming victory now, if official results might prove otherwise on
June 21, a mere three days from now? Simple: they will be able to scream foul
play—and gain the world's sympathy. For days the world will have been
inundated with news that the Brotherhood won, so that, when and if it hears
that Shafiq won, it will naturally conclude electoral fraud—which best serves
the Islamists' interests.
Mahmoud
Baraka, a Shafiq campaign spokesman, maintains that "their candidate
[Shafiq] won the presidency, with 52% of the votes"—precisely the same
number the Brotherhood is claiming—adding that the Brotherhood's claims to
victory "are bizarre and unacceptable," a "big act."
Likewise, talk show host Tawfik
Okasha appeared emphatically saying that the Brotherhood's claims are
"all lies," that most polls indicate that Brotherhood candidate
Muhammad Morsi "failed," and that the Islamist group's motive is
simply to sow "discord and dissension." He proceeded to give
several examples of how the Brotherhood's claims are incongruous with
reality.
But why believe Shafiq's spokesman and
staunch secularist Okasha? Good question. Here's a better one: Why believe
the Muslim Brotherhood? Why follow the lead of an organization that has
mastered dissimulation, an organization that promised Egypt it would not run
a presidential candidate, only to renege once opportune?
Knowing the Brotherhood's deceptive
tactics—"War is
deceit" declared their prophet—there is good reason to think that
they may have planned a propaganda victory well before the elections. They
could claim victory, won fair and square; they could have their Islamist and
Western media supporters trumpet it; they could embed it in everyone's mind
over the course of three days before the results are formally announced—all
to set the playing field to their advantage.
Then, if Shafiq wins, everyone—from militant
Islamists in Egypt to a grandstanding U.S. Secretary of State—will shout,
"foul play!" thereby exonerating the long promised civil war Egypt's
Islamists vowed to wage if the election did not go their way—a rebellion that
would then be portrayed in the West as a result of "grievance."
The truth is, as of this moment, no one knows
which candidate won. What is known is that it's a close race. Perhaps Morsi
will win; perhaps Shafiq. Short time will tell.
In the meantime, although the media need to
"break the news" and not be left behind, prudence is in order. It
is counterproductive for the West to eat straight out of the Brotherhood's
hands—to unreservedly follow their tune and propagate their unsubstantiated
information—which is precisely what the Islamists want: it works only to
their advantage.
Raymond
Ibrahim is a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center
and an Associate Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
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