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Dear Reader:
I spoke on the Toronto radio show Closing
Arguments with Steven Skurka, July 22, discussing Breivik and Guantánamo
recidivists. You can hear the 10-minute interview by clicking here.
Yours sincerely,
Daniel Pipes
Egypt's Sixty Years of Misery
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friends to like this.
This week marks 60 years since Egypt's
self-proclaimed Free Officers overthrew the constitutional monarchy of King
Farouq – and the first anniversary when one can imagine the demise of the
military despotism that so long has wounded the country. Sadly, its most
likely replacement will bring on an even worse rule.
The era of monarchy had plenty of faults,
from iniquitous income levels to violent movements (foremost among them, the
Muslim Brotherhood) but it was an era of modernization, of a growing economy,
and of increasing influence in the world. Industry had begun, women threw off
their face coverings, and Egyptian soft power had a wide impact in
Arabic-speaking countries. Tarek Osman recalls this time in his excellent Egypt
on the Brink: From Nasser to Mubarak (Yale) as "liberal,
glamorous, cosmopolitan."
The dreary rule of generals and colonels
began on July 23, 1952, led by the ambitious Gamal Abdul Nasser (r. 1954-70).
The grandiose Anwar el-Sadat (r. 1970-81) followed him, then the pompous
Husni Mubarak (r. 1981-2011). Nasser, much the worst of the trio, danced to
the demons of anti-capitalist resentment and anti-imperialist frustration;
his rule saw crippling confiscation of private property and inane foreign
adventures (with Syria, against Israel, in Yemen), incurring costs the
country still pays.
The regime specialized in deception. The
junta donned mufti even as the military's reach extended over the economy,
the security services, the legislature, and the judiciary. Unity with Syria
masked bitter hostility. Ostentatious rivalry with Islamists hid a squalid
competition over spoils. Peace with Israel disguised continued warfare
through other means.
During the long, painful, and regressive
reign of the army boots, Egypt moved backward according to every meaningful
index, from standard of living to diplomatic clout, even as the population quadrupled
from 20 to 83 million and Islamist ideology flourished. Egypt and South
Korea, Osman notes, were on a socio-economic par in 1952; now, Egypt has
fallen far behind. He writes how "society did not progress" under
the soldiers' rule but, to the contrary, "on many fronts, it actually
regressed." He discerns since 1952 "an overarching feeling of an
irreparable sense of damage, a national defeat." From football games to
poetry, one senses that defeatism.
On approaching his 30th year in
power, Pharaoh Mubarak decided, in a paroxysm of hubris, to sideline his
military colleagues. He aspired to steal yet more money, even if that meant
denying the officers their share, and (under pressure of his wife) sought to
have, not another military officer but his son, the banker Gamal,
succeed him as president.
The outraged general officers bided their
time. In early 2011, when brave, secular, and modern young people in Tahrir
Square announced their impatience with tyranny, the junta exploited them to
push Mubarak from office. Liberals thought they won, but they served merely
as a tool and pretext for the military to be rid of its despised master.
Having served their purpose, liberals were shunted aside as officers and
Islamists competed for loot.
Which brings us to the present: The Supreme
Council of the Armed Forces still runs the country,
the Muslim Brotherhood wants to push it aside. Which of these unworthy,
autocratic forces will win? SCAF has, in my view, an 80 percent chance of
holding power, meaning that Islamists will prevail only if they display
enough talent. SCAF cleverly sidelined the Muslim Brotherhood's most
charismatic and capable leader, Khairat al-Shater on dubious technical
grounds (his imprisonment by the Mubarak regime). That left the much less
competent Mohamed Morsi as the brotherhood's standard-bearer and the country's
new president. His first few weeks have shown him to be a mumbler and bumbler
with no aptitude for waging political battle even against the incompetents
who staff SCAF.
As Egyptians endure the 60th
anniversary of the military's power grab, they have little to look forward
to. If more July 23rd celebrations likely await them, at least
they are not suffering through the first anniversary of Islamist rule. Better
domination by greedy soldiers than by Islamist ideologues.
But Egyptians and their supporters abroad can
aspire to better. The liberals who rallied in Tahrir Square remain the
country's only hope and the West's only allies; they deserve support. However
remote they are from the corridors of power, their rise uniquely offers an
antidote to sixty years of tyranny and decline.
Mr. Pipes (www.DanielPipes.org) is president of
the Middle East Forum and Taube distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover
Institution of Stanford University. © 2012 by Daniel Pipes. All rights
reserved.
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