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Syria's Weapons at the Ready
July 24, 2012
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After years of denials, the Syrian regime has
admitted to possessing a weapons-grade chemical arsenal. Despite a disclaimer
that such weapons would never be used "inside Syria," Syrian
Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi cautioned that Syria would not hold
back if "exposed to external aggression." Many analysts see these
statements as a warning to Israel, the United States, and other allied countries
not to attempt an armed intervention in the Syrian crisis. U.S. intelligence
officials are monitoring a disturbing rise in activity and movement of
chemical weapons by the regime.
Non-conventional weapons expert Dany Shoham
has detailed Syria's CBW capabilities in a Middle East Quarterly
article, "Guile,
Gas and Germs: Syria's Ultimate Weapons." He reports: "As early
as 1992, the U.S. Defense Department ranked Syria as the sole Muslim state
possessing a 'chemical systems capability in all critical elements' for
chemical weapons. And in recent years, Syria has added biological weapons to
its store—weapons with far more strategic value than chemical weapons."
In Shoham's second look at Syria's arsenal,
"Poisoned
Missiles: Syria's Doomsday Deterrent," he poses several possible
scenarios for the regime's use of chemical or biological weapons—one scenario
bears a chilling similarity to the current situation:
"The Syrians would justify the use of
chemical weapons by claiming that their very survival was at stake. If Syria
were on the brink of military defeat, any use of chemical weapons would
almost certainly be aimed at the source of the immediate danger: Israeli
forces, other targets at the front, and air force bases. … a chemical attack
on civilian targets cannot be ruled out."
Heightening the current danger is the
possibility that if the regime falls, the Syrian weapons could end up in the
hands of terrorists including the regime's Lebanese proxy Hezbollah or
al-Qaeda operatives. However, Makdissi sought to downplay this threat, saying
that the country's "chemical or bacterial weapons" are "stored
and secured by Syrian military forces."
To understand exactly how dangerous Syria's
chemical and biological arsenal is, read Dany Shoham's articles in the Middle East Quarterly—one of
America's most authoritative journals of Middle Eastern affairs.
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