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Top Stories
CSM:
"Iran may be about to install a new generation of uranium enrichment
equipment at its big nuclear plant near the central city of Natanz.
According to news wire reports, Iran on Jan. 23 notified the International
Atomic Energy Agency, the UN's nuclear watchdog, that it plans to
introduce upwards of 3,000 upgraded centrifuges at the Natanz facility,
which currently relies upon older IR-1 centrifuge models... 'Iran's
installation of more efficient centrifuges at Natanz could be a game
changer,' tweeted Mark Fitzpatrick, director of the non-proliferation and
disarmament program at the Institute for Science and International
Security, on Thursday... The Iranians provided no time frame for the
work, which would take months, if not a year, to complete. But the move
is clearly a blow to the US and its allies at a time when they are trying
to get Iran to scale back its nuclear activities and cooperate more fully
with IAEA. The problem as far as the US is concerned is that better
centrifuges could shorten Iran's break-out time to a nuclear
weapon." http://t.uani.com/WD2Cmo
Reuters:
"Iran's crude exports to its biggest customer, Asia, fell by a
quarter in 2012 and shipments this year are expected to drop by at least
12 percent under U.S. sanctions pressure, but ample alternative supplies
will keep refiners flush with oil. Asia's main oil buyers cut imports
from Iran to an average of 1.09 million barrels per day in 2012,
government and industry data shows, and planned cuts in term contracts
for 2013 point to further reductions of at least 135,000 bpd. However,
experts say overall cuts would have to be deeper to secure further
waivers from the U.S. sanctions that are aimed at forcing Iran to halt
its nuclear programme and which have made shipping and paying for Iranian
oil difficult, cutting overall exports by more than half in 2012. From
Asia, Iran lost $14 billion worth of oil exports for the year, according
to Reuters calculations." http://t.uani.com/W7oq8g
AFP:
"The White House warned Thursday that Iran's decision to install
more modern equipment at its Natanz nuclear plant was a 'further
escalation' in the showdown over its atomic program. 'The installation of
new advanced centrifuges is a further escalation and a continuing
violation ... of Iran's obligations under relevant United Nations
Security Council and IAEA board resolutions,' White House spokesman Jay
Carney said. A document seen by AFP on Thursday shows that Iran intends
to install more modern equipment at Natanz, one of its main nuclear
sites. The UN atomic agency document said that Iran informed it in a
letter dated January 23 that 'centrifuge machines type IR2m will be used
in Unit A-22' at the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) at Natanz." http://t.uani.com/XNvm8i
Nuclear Program
Politico:
"Chuck Hagel stumbled Thursday during questioning on Iran,
inadvertently saying the Obama administration supports 'containment' and
calling the country an 'elected legitimate government.' 'I support the
president's strong position on containment, as I have said,' the former
Republican senator from Nebraska told the Senate Armed Services Committee
considering his nomination for Defense secretary. The statement differed
from his prepared opening statement, where he said: 'I am fully committed
to the president's goal of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear
weapon, and - as I've said in the past - all options must be on the table
to achieve that goal.' ... In addressing Iran, Hagel said that the
country was 'a member of the United Nations. Almost all of our allies
have embassies in Iran ... [It is] an elected, legitimate government,
whether we agree or not.'" http://t.uani.com/XctkP3
Reuters:
"The window for negotiations with Iran about its nuclear program
cannot stay open for 'too much longer,' outgoing U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton said on Thursday but she declined to provide a deadline.
'I don't think the window can remain open for too much longer (but) I am
not going to put days, weeks or months on it,' Clinton told a small group
of reporters on the eve of her departure from the State Department."
http://t.uani.com/U8ayxy
Sanctions
FT:
"Pakistan has decided to go ahead with a controversial $1.5bn pipeline
to import Iranian gas, a senior government official has said, in a move
that risks alienating the US. 'A decision has been made that we can't
delay this project for any longer. This is Pakistan's essential lifeline.
We are going ahead with this project,' the official told the Financial
Times on Thursday. Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan's president, unexpectedly
cancelled a trip to Iran at the last minute in December, amid concerns in
Islamabad over stiff US opposition to a project considered essential for tackling
mounting energy shortages. Some Pakistani officials had expected Mr
Zardari to consent to the project during the trip. The plan would see
Pakistan build a pipeline connecting its national gas supply grid in the
southern Sindh province to the Iranian border in southwest Baluchistan.
Iranian officials say they have already built the pipeline on their side
of the border to within 100km of Pakistan." http://t.uani.com/YowbXN
Syrian Uprising
Bloomberg:
"Hillary Clinton said Iran has increased the number and quality of
weapons it sends Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, underscoring a top
challenge facing John Kerry, her successor as U.S. secretary of state.
The Iranian government is also aiding Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based
militant group that backs Assad, Clinton said yesterday in her final
interview before leaving office. 'We know that the Iranians are all-in
for Assad' and that keeping their closest ally in the Middle East in
power 'is one of their highest priorities,' said Clinton, whose last day
after four years as America's top diplomat is today." http://t.uani.com/11oqqho
Terrorism
Reuters:
"The United States on Thursday voiced doubt that Argentina and
Iran's planned 'truth commission' would bring to justice those
responsible for the deadly 1994 bombing of a Buenos Aires Jewish
community center. Argentine courts have said Iran was behind the attack
on the Jewish center, which killed 85 people. The commission agreement,
announced over the weekend but subject to the approval of Argentina's
Congress, outlines plans for Argentine officials to interview suspects in
Iran rather than in a third country, as originally proposed by Argentina.
State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland has said little about the
commission, but stressed that Iran had a responsibility to work with
Argentine authorities to bring those responsible for the bombing to
justice. 'We are skeptical that such a just solution can be found in the
arrangement announced,' Nuland said on Thursday." http://t.uani.com/Xcraif
AP:
"The Turkish gunman who shot Pope John Paul II has changed his story
once again, saying in a new autobiography that Iran's late leader
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini personally told him to kill the pope. Mehmet
Ali Agca writes in 'They Promised Me Paradise,' released Thursday in
Italy, that he was trained in Iran by Khomeini's forces after escaping
from a Turkish prison, and that the Iranian leader himself told him to
kill John Paul in the name of God. Agca shot and wounded John Paul on May
13, 1981, in St. Peter's Square." http://t.uani.com/TlouTi
Human Rights
HRW:
"Authorities arrested, detained, and harassed some of Iran's most
celebrated rights lawyers, and stepped up their assault on critical
journalists, bloggers, and their families in 2012, HumanRightsWatch said
today in its World Report 2013. The government also prevented reformists
and opposition leaders from participating in parliamentary elections, and
is holding the opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi,
and Zahra Rahnavard under house arrest as Iran prepares for its
presidential election in June 2013." http://t.uani.com/XsNV32
Opinion &
Analysis
Maseh Zarif in
AEI: "Iran has announced its intention to expand its
ability to enrich uranium rapidly by installing advanced centrifuges at
the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant. If Iran carries through on this
declaration it will undermine one of the core assumptions of current U.S.
policy aimed at preventing Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons-namely,
that the U.S. will detect the start of the process of enriching to
weapons-grade uranium in time to take meaningful action. Iranian
officials recently notified the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
that they intend to fill a unit at the underground Natanz enrichment
facility with IR-2m centrifuges. A unit at Natanz consists of 18 cascades
of approximately 170 centrifuges each; a fully outfitted IR-2m unit would
hold just over 3,000 centrifuges. These second-generation machines have
an output rate several times greater than the IR-1 machines Iran currently
uses for its enrichment program. The use of IR-2m machines would
significantly reduce the time required for Iran to acquire weapons-grade
uranium. Three thousand IR-1 centrifuges at Natanz can convert near-20%
enriched uranium into one weapon's worth of highly-enriched uranium in
just under one month. The same conversion using 3,000 of the advanced
IR-2m centrifuges would take just 5-8 days. This shortened interval has
significant policy implications. In 2011, Pentagon spokesman George
Little said that IAEA inspectors-who make periodic visits but are not
permanently station there-at Iran's declared sites could detect such a
move, and that 'we would retain sufficient time under any such scenario
to take appropriate action.' If the time between inspector visits is
longer than a week, would we be able to receive warning regarding the key
indicator of weaponization? This technical upgrade has the potential to
upend one of the most basic assumptions underpinning our standing policy
to prevent the emergence of a nuclear Iran: that we will detect an
Iranian move to enrich to weapons-grade in time to intervene. The
prospect of operational IR-2m centrifuges, and with them an Iranian
capability to produce weapons fuel between inspectors' visits at known
facilities or within days at smaller covert facilities, greatly increases
the likelihood of policy failure." http://t.uani.com/14DcZKc
Matthew Levitt in
WINEP: "In October 2012, an Iranian-American car
salesman pleaded guilty to his role in an audacious plot to assassinate
the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States. The plot, to be
carried out in a Washington, D.C., restaurant, drew nearly as much
attention for its clumsy execution as it did for the boldness of the
target and the location. But the buzz around the assassination attempt
obscured its part in a more ominous project: a large-scale campaign by
Hizballah and Iran's elite Qods Force, begun in early 2010, to carry out
acts of violence targeting not only Israel but also U.S. and other
Western interests. This Policy Focus -- drawn from Matthew Levitt's
forthcoming book Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon's Party of
God (Georgetown University Press) -- outlines the ambitious scope of this
latest Hizballah-Qods Force undertaking. Among the piece's key
revelations is that the quest for successful strikes has often led
operatives to areas of lower operational risk, from Azerbaijan to
Bulgaria to Thailand. Recent developments -- such as the 2008 murder of
Hizballah commander Imad Mughniyah and Western attempts to sabotage the
Iranian nuclear program -- figure prominently in this unfolding story.
Most important for Western officials, however, will be heightened
vigilance against what is sure to be sharper operational performance by
two 'strategic partners' whose prolific working relationship dates back
three decades." http://t.uani.com/YozApz
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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