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Why on earth is
Obama going to Israel?
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Why exactly is President Obama going to Israel? A
variety of theories have been advanced as to why he is making the trip now
and what might be accomplished.
Some have suggested that Obama needs to reassure
Israel, to hold their hands and tell them that the US-Israeli relationship is
special. This suggests that Obama cares about Israeli feelings, at least in
the sense that positive sentiments advance policy goals, and that Israelis
might be thus comforted by his presence. But the record of bad relations
between Obama and Netanyahu is too long, and the fact that Obama is on record
saying that Israelis don't know what is best for them, whereas he does, has
mitigated whatever good vibrations he might spread now.
Others have suggested that Obama is going to take
advantage of the unique circumstances of weakness in the Arab world in order
to force progress in Israeli-Palestinian relations. But the Palestinian
Authority is again engaged in fruitless reconciliation talks with Hamas and
has accused Israel of sabotaging those talks with back channel contacts with
Hamas. It has also orchestrated violent protests against Israel in advance of
Obama's trip to create a price tag for its cooperation. The idea that Obama
holds a strong hand falls short.
Still others believe the visit is a kind of reset, an
opportunity to rebuild relations badly damaged by the misstep of forcing
Israel to adopt a construction freeze that was neither asked for nor
reciprocated by Palestinians, as a condition for resuming negotiations. Given
the appointment of Chuck Hagel to be Secretary of Defense, despite
revelations regarding his peculiarly obsessive hostility towards Israel and
near indifference towards other issues, this rings particularly hollow.
On the whole, the timing of the visit is so
inauspicious as to arouse suspicion that a change of American policy is
indeed in the making. Consider the Middle East scene today. The Egyptian
military is making veiled threats against the American-supported Muslim
Brotherhood Morsi government. The civil war in Syria is spreading into
Lebanon. The threat of an Islamist takeover in Jordan has never been greater.
And Iran, with the help of North Korea, inches ever closer to a nuclear
weapon.
Nothing suggests the administration changing its
policies on these realities. The US Government continues to support Saudi
Arabia, Qatar and Turkey in supplying the increasingly Islamist dominated
rebels in Syria, and now will provide non-lethal aid directly. No meaningful
pressure has been exerted on Egypt to change course, to push economic reforms
or lessen growing repression against Christians and liberals. Jordan is, as
ever, almost completely off the American radar. And while the sanctions
policy against Iran has hurt the middle and lower classes, it has only
increased the regime's belligerence. The idea that Obama is coming to Israel
to inform it of significant policy changes is the most far-fetched
interpretation of all.
So why now? The simplest explanation may be the best;
that in his second term Obama has less to lose and will at least gain a badly
needed American PR boost by finally going, and that, in the absence of overt
embarrassments, the trip will be deemed a success.
Based on the administration's habit of doubling down
on bad calls, chances are that the news Obama is bringing is a commitment to
more of the same. A trip half way around the world for those reasons will
undramatic as it is unproductive, and for that reason we should expect the
trip to be couched in terms of "unprecedented security cooperation"
between Israel and the US, and "being on the same page about Iran."
Photo-ops and talking past one another will be the norm. The stage has been
set by the announcement that the US will keep funding joint development of
anti-missile programs regardless of sequestration budget cutbacks. But the
question of what might be accomplished remains.
But at another level the visit is dangerous. For one
thing it will inevitably expose just how out of sync the US is with Israel as
well as the region. The bad chemistry between Obama and Netanyahu will
produce awkward body language when they meet. American spokesmen will visibly
dance around unwanted questions regarding Hamas and Hezbollah, or Muslim
antisemitism. The famously aggressive Israeli press will analyze Obama's
every move and every word, as will the Palestinian press. And despite
carefully stage-managed meetings with selected groups, groups of Israelis and
Palestinians are likely to loudly protest, causing embarrassment all around.
But the real impact of the Obama visit to Israel will
not be in Israel but rather in Arab and Muslim countries. After all, it is in
those countries that Obama has arguably (and if popularity polls are to be
believed, unsuccessfully) invested the most political capital, and it is
there that his trip to Israel will create the most disappointment and
resentment. The 'Arab Street' will want to see overt confrontation between
Israel and the US and will be disappointed when it doesn't appear. More
nuanced observers in those societies will assume other forms of American
pressure on Israel, because they desire it, and then will be disappointed
when evidence does not quickly appear. And virtually all local observers,
especially in government ministries and official media, will obsess over the
visit as a welcome respite from the situations in Syria and Egypt. The near
tragic element of Obama's visit and its timing then is that it plays directly
into the region's traditional use of Israel as a weapon of mass distraction.
Obama's visit, by virtue of being routine and
ill-timed has the potential to feed the region's worst instincts. Disappointment
with Obama will quickly turn to the default setting of blaming Israel. Is
that Obama's true goal, a back handed form of incitement? Probably not.
Nothing in the Obama' administration's international dealings suggests this
level of sophistication; its manufacture of resentment is generally reserved
only for the Republican Party. But that will be one of its effects and it
will, in all probability, set back the cause of peace, and that of addressing
the region's other issues.
Alex Joffe is a historian and archaeologist. He is
a Shillman-Ginsburg Fellow of the Middle East Forum.
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Sunday, March 17, 2013
Why on earth is Obama going to Israel? :: Joffe in Times of Israel
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