Monday, July 29, 2013

Eye on Iran: U.S. House Set to Vote on Tough Iran Sanctions Bill This Week











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Reuters: "Lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives are due to vote on a tough Iran sanctions bill this week that seeks to squeeze the Islamic Republic's oil exports to a trickle. The Republican-led House is due to vote on Wednesday on the bill that seeks to cut Iran's oil exports by another 1 million barrels per day within one year, congressional aides said. The bill, expected to pass easily in the House, would not become law immediately as no companion legislation has yet passed in the Senate. The Senate Banking Committee could consider its version of a bill in September and then the legislation would move to the full chamber for a vote. If the House acts this week it would highlight a divide between lawmakers in Congress and the some in President Barack Obama's administration... Robert McNally, the president of energy consultancy the Rapidan Group and former White House energy advisor to President George W. Bush, said that in effect Washington is working on a two-track strategy on Iran that could pay off. 'For diplomacy to have any chance of succeeding, it must be coupled with the threat of increased sanctions,' McNally said." http://t.uani.com/14cMSNy

NYT: "Bogged down in faltering nuclear talks with the European powers nearly 10 years ago, Hassan Rouhani did something that no Iranian diplomat before or since has managed to do. He took out his cellphone, say Western diplomats who were there, dialed up his longtime friend and associate, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and convinced him that Iran needed to suspend nuclear enrichment. The call by Mr. Rouhani, who was elected president in June and will take office next week, resulted in an agreement in October 2003, the only nuclear deal between Iran and the West in the past 11 years. 'Rouhani showed that he is a central player in Iran's political establishment,' said Stanislas de Laboulaye, a retired director general of the French Foreign Ministry, who was a member of the European delegation during the talks between 2003 and 2005. 'He was the only one able to sell something deeply unpopular to the other leaders.' There is growing optimism in Iran and in the West that Mr. Rouhani, 64, is ready to restart serious talks on the nuclear issue... But they caution that he is, above all, a Shiite Muslim cleric who has dedicated his life to the Islamic Revolution, which he will never betray. 'Our opponents are wrong to expect compromises from Rouhani; the sanctions and other pressures will not make us change our stances,' said one of his former closest associates during an interview in Tehran." http://t.uani.com/150n7Py

The Citizen (Tanzania): "Tanzania has launched fresh investigations to establish whether Iranian oil tankers were still illegally using the national flag to evade shipping sanctions imposed on Iran by the US and the European Union (EU). Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation minister Bernard Membe says the government has been alerted on the new reflagging and directed the relevant state organs to thoroughly look into the matter... Mr Membe said that if it was true that the national flag was still being wrongfully used, Tanzania would officially complain to Iran and involve the international community to resolve the issue.. The New York-based watchdog organisation United Against Nuclear Iran said 32 tankers of the blacklisted NITC, which owns the vessels that were deregistered last year, were still signalling the Tanzanian flag. The organisation played a key role in exposing links between Tanzania's flag and Iran's tankers, which the government had initially denied. It conceded only after evidence showed that Iran secured the cover through Zanzibar, which had contracted Philtex of Dubai to oversee its ship registration services." http://t.uani.com/13Sjn0r
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Sanctions

Business Times (South Africa): "The shock resignation of MTN's finance chief, Nazir Patel, this week stems from how he allegedly broke the cellular giant's procedures by diverting money out of MTN's thriving business in the pariah state of Iran. In an almost unprecedented move among blue chip companies, the cellular company revealed on Monday that Mr Patel had resigned 'with immediate effect' after a preliminary investigation had apparently highlighted numerous governance breaches... But Business Times has established that the investigation into Mr Patel revolved around how he allegedly broke MTN's procedures in transferring its cash out of Iran through Dubai. Investigative teams in Dubai and Iran are understood to be scrutinising the case, and have handed a draft report to the board. It is the second scandal to emanate from MTN's Iranian business. Sixteen months ago, Chris Kilowan, the former head of MTN's Iran business, testified that the company had lavished bribes on Iranian ministers, as well as South Africa's former ambassador to the country, Yusuf Saloojee, to grab Iran's second cellular licence in 2007 from rival Turkcell." http://t.uani.com/17auXls

The Hindu: "In a sign that Western sanctions weigh heavily on it, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) has virtually slammed the door on Iran for crude oil imports during 2013-14 and has instead increased imports from Iraq. The HPCL's strategy paper for crude imports during 2013-14 - a copy of which is available with The Hindu - states that because of the sanctions the U.S. and the European Union imposed on Iran, it is proposed to have only an optional contract of one million tonne with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC); and it will be used on a need basis, if only there is no negative impact on HPCL business. The existing term contract for April 2012-March 2013 was 2 million tonne (40,000 barrels a day), with an optional contract of 1 million tonne (20,000 barrels a day) for 2013-14. But NIOC turned the proposal down, saying it did not have a policy to make a mere optional contract. 'Hence, there is no crude-lifting contract with NIOC for 2013-14. This is due to the ongoing US/EU sanctions on Iran,' the paper says." http://t.uani.com/15Y5fBI

Hartford Courant: "United Technologies Corp. disclosed in regulatory filings Friday that one of its foreign businesses worked on the security system for the Paris branch of Iran's national bank, an entity singled out under U.S. economic sanctions against the Middle East country. Delta Security Solution's business with the Bank Melli Iran's Paris branch amounted to $7,582 in 2012 and 2013, a portion of which occurred after President Barack Obama signed an executive order last October limiting U.S. companies and their foreign subsidiaries from 'engaging in any transaction, directly or indirectly, with the Government of Iran.' According to securities filings, UTC reported sales of about $3.59 million over the past two years to banks, insurance companies, oil companies and embassies controlled or owned by the Iranian government. All of the sales were through foreign subsidiaries of the Hartford-based company, which declined to comment further on the sales." http://t.uani.com/18HZPNC

AP: "A senior Iranian official says the country has ordered 315 subway cars from China in place of payment for oil that can't be transferred due to sanctions. Amir Jafarpour, who is deputy head of the Transportation and Fuel Management Committee, says officials were forced to order the coaches because billions of dollars of payments from crude oil exports to China have not been transferred to Iran because of sanctions." http://t.uani.com/13TrSZc

Radio Zamaneh: "Iran's automotive sector announced today, July 21, that close to 122,000 workers in auto parts factories have lost their jobs in the past year. A spokesman for the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association said that since last year, economic fluctuations have forced many production units to lay off between 30 to 50 percent of their workforce. 'The crisis has reached a stage where many parts manufacturers have cut back their three daily shifts to only one a day,' Mohammadreza Najafai announced." http://t.uani.com/152dsYX

Bloomberg: "Iran needs the highest oil price among OPEC members to balance its 2013 budget, according to an inter-governmental Arab energy lender. Iran requires an average crude price of $144 a barrel this year to break even, up from $127 last year, the Arab Petroleum Investments Corp., known as Apicorp, said today in an e-mailed report." http://t.uani.com/1c4BCVA

Syrian Civil War

WT:
"The House Committee on Foreign Affairs this week will focus on Iran's support for the Syrian regime in a civil war that has claimed 100,000 lives and Iranian influence in Latin America, where an Argentine prosecutor accuses the Islamic regime of running spy networks in nine countries. Iran has sent 'cash, goods, arms and foreign fighters' to help Syrian President Bashar Assad retain power, said Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, chairwoman of the Middle East and North Africa subcommittee. 'This conflict has brought the entire region to the precipice of utter chaos, and directly threatens the United States, our national security interests and our allies.'" http://t.uani.com/18MLN0w

Human Rights


AP: "An Iranian semi-official news agency is reporting that a member of a small religious minority set himself on fire next to the country's parliament building. ISNA's late Saturday report says the man, a member of the Ahl Al-Haq, suddenly poured a bottle of fuel on his body and lit it. It said he was taken to hospital. Iranian opposition websites have reported two other such self-immolations since June by Ahl Al-Haq adherents following the alleged abuse of a group member in prison." http://t.uani.com/17akDd8

AFP: "Conservative lawmaker Ali Motahari on Sunday called for the release of political prisoners in Iran and questioned the ongoing house arrests of opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. A vocal critic of outgoing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Motahari broached the topic in a statement read on the floor of conservative-dominated parliament, less than a week before moderate president-elect Hassan Rowhani takes office on August 3. 'There are now political prisoners jailed only for criticising the government,' said Motahari, according to his personal website." http://t.uani.com/12wxkTE

BBC: "Fresh concerns have been raised about the health of Iranian opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi, under house arrest since 2010. Mr Karroubi's son said he was taken to hospital three times recently due to heart and lung problems. Mehdi Karroubi, 76, was detained after anti-government street protests. He has not been formally charged." http://t.uani.com/17NZGa8

Domestic Politics

AP: "Iran's Supreme Leader is calling on top opposition figures to apologize for claiming vote fraud in the country's 2009 presidential elections. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's comments are seen as a response to demands from Iranian politicians for the release of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi, both under house arrest since 2011. Khameini's remarks were carried by state TV Monday." http://t.uani.com/1aSB41Z

Guardian: "With a week until Rouhani's inauguration, such signs have fuelled hope that a peaceful 'Iranian spring' could be on the way, reversing the intensifying repression of the last eight years under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Yet those hopes are tempered by bitter experience. Green shoots of civic freedoms and human rights were even more apparent under the last reformist president, Mohammad Khatami, and at the peak of the 2009 opposition Green movement, only to be emphatically quashed by conservatives in the regime and security forces... Ali Ansari, professor of modern history at Saint Andrews University, said the regime would ultimately have to resolve its contradictory views on dealing with the west. 'The conservatives seem to think that Rouhani's election will change international perceptions overnight,' Ansari said. 'But if they think that a smiling Rouhani will get sanctions lifted and everything will be hunky dory without giving something substantial to the west, they may be surprised.'" http://t.uani.com/17anlzA

Reuters: "Iranian President-elect Hassan Rouhani will pick a cabinet of experienced insiders and will appoint the head of a powerful charity-cum-business foundation as his chief nuclear negotiator, Iranian news agencies said on Monday... The ISNA and Mehr news agencies said Rouhani would nominate Mohammad Forouzandeh as head of the Supreme National Security Council, effectively making him Iran's chief nuclear negotiator. The moderate cleric will also bring former Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh back to his old job and name former U.N. envoy Mohammad Javad Zarif as foreign minister, the agencies said. There was no immediate official confirmation of the reported nominees for top posts. Parliament must approve all the president's ministerial choices. Forouzandeh, tipped to head Iran's nuclear negotiating team, is a former Revolutionary Guard, a former defense minister and now a member of Iran's Security Council. He also heads the Foundation for the Oppressed and Disabled, the biggest of the state charitable organizations which dominate large parts of the economy. It controls companies involved in petrochemicals, shipping, construction and a host of other enterprises and employs tens of thousands of people." http://t.uani.com/15qXVj1

Reuters: "Iranian President-elect Hassan Rouhani is expected to return respected former oil minister Bijan Zanganeh to the post he held for eight years until hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came to office in 2005, an Iranian industry source said on Sunday. As oil minister under the reformist government from 1997 to 2005, Zanganeh helped attract billions of dollars of foreign investment into Iran's vast oil and gas industry and was seen as being insulated from political attacks on the administration by the strong support of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei." http://t.uani.com/19rMuf0

Foreign Affairs

Reuters: "Afghanistan hopes an agreement with Iran to use one of its ports will help boost exports to Europe and India and reduce its dependence on neighboring Pakistan's ports for trade. Iran will allow land-locked Afghanistan to use the port to export goods like fruit and carpets to India and other countries, according to the spokesman for Afghanistan's Ministry of Commerce and Industries." http://t.uani.com/16sfgXF

Opinion & Analysis

Ray Takeyh in LAT: "Iran will inaugurate its seventh president on Aug. 4. Hassan Rouhani assumes power at a time when the Islamic Republic is confronting international isolation and simmering domestic discontent. He has already changed the tone of the regime, promising moderation and a fresh look at Iran's many quandaries. The temptation to embrace an Iranian politician who speaks the language of pragmatism may prove irresistible. However, as Rouhani settles into office, it is best to hold back and see how much authority he will have on the nuclear issue and how much of his political capital he is willing to spend on redeeming his campaign pledges. Rouhani has been a regime insider since the beginning of the Islamic Republic in 1979. His ability to traverse the treacherous waters of the theocracy reflects his unparalleled political acumen. He spent his tenure as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council settling disputes, dispensing favors and cultivating national figures. Paradoxically, Iran's nuclear issues, which helped get him elected this time, also proved his undoing a decade ago. In 2004, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei cynically blamed Rouhani, Iran's nuclear negotiator, for the nation's voluntary suspension of its nuclear program. Rouhani was eased out of his position of influence. The resentment between the two men is palpable, as they have spent the last few years subtly criticizing each other. Rouhani's improbable presidency does not absolve him of the need to reassure a skeptical international community. For the entirety of the Obama presidency, Iran has rejected sincere offers of dialogue, reneged on its promises of cooperation and denounced U.N. Security Council measures as illegitimate and illegal. And this is only on the nuclear front. The Islamic Republic remains an aggressive supporter of the Assad government in Syria and an array of terrorist groups plotting against incumbent Arab states. Given its record of defiance and mendacity, Tehran needs to prove its sincerity of purpose. One way of determining the scope of Rouhani's authority is to hold him accountable for his promises. Iran persistently claims that its nuclear program is firmly anchored in the nuclear nonproliferation treaty and is merely designed for production of energy. Government functionaries are quick to point out that the treaty grants all member states the right to peacefully pursue the limits of nuclear science. They conveniently neglect to mention that Iran has been censured by numerous International Atomic Energy Agency injunctions, and that the agency is unsatisfied with Tehran's record of compliance. The traditional practice of the Islamic Republic is to insist on its rights while denying its obligations. It is Rouhani's burden to change all that. In his first postelection news conference, Rouhani addressed the nuclear issue and stressed that 'Iran will be more transparent to show that its activities fall within the framework of international rules.' For many years, Iran has been unwilling to grant the IAEA access to its key installations and scientists and to come clean about previous weaponization activities. Perhaps in this new era of transparency, Rouhani will be willing to negotiate a plan with the IAEA and grant its inspectors the access long denied them. Should Rouhani pass this rather modest test, then he may be a figure the great powers can invest in." http://t.uani.com/11pLvXY

Jonathan Tobin in Commentary: "The reason for the enthusiasm in Washington and in the liberal press for Rouhani isn't a puzzle. By portraying the man elected to the largely symbolic post of president of Iran as a man of peace, some hope to not merely defuse tensions between Iran and the West over the regime's nuclear program but to revive support for diplomacy. Since it has long since been made clear that Iran regards such talks as merely a means to stall the West while it gets closer to achieving its nuclear goal, belief in more talks with Iran is a tough sell. But Rouhani is supposed to change all that and offer President Obama a plausible option for avoiding the use of force in order to make good on his promise never to allow Iran to go nuclear. The only problem with this formulation is that the closer you look at it him, the less moderate he sounds. Indeed, as the Times profile makes clear, for all of the bouquets being thrown in Rouhani's direction, it's fairly obvious that his main virtue is that he is not Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. For eight years, Rouhani's predecessor has been a convenient symbol of everything that is hateful about Iran's government. Ahmadinejad's open anti-Semitism and Holocaust denial transformed him into a cartoon character villain in the West who symbolized the extreme nature of the Iranian government. Though Rouhani's election is seen as a rebuke to Khamenei, allowing the loopy-looking Ahmadinejad to be replaced with someone who is viewed as a moderate in the West is the smartest thing the supreme leader has done in years. As bizarre as Ahmadinejad's rants were, he was merely the public face of a government run largely by others that embodied the same ideology he espoused. But even the proofs offered of Rouhani's moderation and pragmatism undermine the narrative that he offers a way out for Obama. The lead of the profile cites Rouhani's ability to use his access to Khamenei in order to gain approval for a tentative deal that would have ended Iran's enrichment of uranium. That was quite a feat, but as the article points out later, the achievement was meaningless. The Iranians soon reneged on their agreement in what many in Tehran admitted was part of a strategy to entice the West into talks that would help them run out the clock on their nuclear program. Agreeing to the terms that Rouhani accepted was as much a ruse as all the other deals Western diplomats thought they had reached with Iran over the years. Though the Times refloats the self-serving analysis of European diplomats that sought to vindicate their negotiating strategy in which Rouhani is depicted as an honest interlocutor who was just 'too optimistic,' he was, in fact, just the star in a clever piece of theater served up by the ayatollahs." http://t.uani.com/152glsA

Michael Theodoulou in The National: "When Hizbollah fighters led the pro-government forces that retook the town of Qusayr after a two-week siege early last month, Tehran basked in the reflected glory, acclaiming their success as a turning point in the civil war in favour of the regime of the Syrian president, Bashar Al Assad. Despite its public praise for its Lebanese Shiite ally, however, Hizbollah's military intervention in Syria in support of Mr Al Assad poses big political risks for Tehran - not the least of which is that it enables rival Sunni Gulf Arab states to claim that Tehran is inflaming sectarian tensions across the volatile region, analysts say. Recent opinion polls show plummeting support for Iran and Hizbollah in Sunni-majority countries.Their approval ratings had already started declining after the Iranian government's crackdown after the 2009 elections, from a peak three years earlier when Hizbollah fought Israel's more technologically advanced forces to a standstill in Lebanon. Tehran's support for Hizbollah deployment in Syria and its backing for the Assad regime have become the 'nail in the coffin of Iran's favourable rating in the region', according to James Zogby, a US-based pollster and president of the Arab American Institute. Iran has obvious geopolitical and strategic motives for bolstering Mr Al Assad. His replacement by a Sunni-dominated government hostile to Tehran would be a severe blow to the Islamic republic, cutting supply lines to Hizbollah and crippling its ability to project power in the Middle East and maintain a proxy presence on Israel's northern border. But Hizbollah's entry into the war has put a sectarian tinge on Tehran's alliance with Mr Assad, according to Emile Hokayem, an analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. 'Iran's foreign policy is not sectarian by design,' Mr Hokayem said. 'It has elements of sectarianism that are now highlighted by Hizbollah's involvement in Syria.'" http://t.uani.com/18IIkNa

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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