Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Gatestone Update :: Douglas Murray: Hezbollah's Wonderful Wings, and more



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Hezbollah's Wonderful Wings

by Douglas Murray
July 30, 2013 at 5:00 am
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It does appear that, unbeknownst to the "political wing," while its members were going about their respectable daily business, with absolutely no private army of their own, some of their colleagues were heading around the globe, committing massacres and terrorist attacks. This must be very embarrassing for them.
Last Monday the EU bravely managed to ban what it terms the "military wing" of the terrorist group Hezbollah. It has not, of course, banned the "political wing."
As noted here before, nobody in Iran, Lebanon or, come to that, Hezbollah itself, believes that such a distinction exists. The EU -- led by the unimpeachable rationale of the British Foreign Office, among others, has invented this pleasant and convenient little fiction.
A Hezbollah poster featuring the group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Does the EU consider him Hezbollah's political, or military, leader?
Perhaps we ought to ask the EU officials some questions. Now that one part of Hezbollah is a designated terrorist entity and another is not, perhaps they could tell us the following:
Last year in Burgas, Bulgaria, five Israeli tourists and one local Bulgarian bus-driver were murdered by a suicide bomber. The Bulgarian authorities subsequently identified Hezbollah as being behind this attack. Could the European Union let the European and other publics know what knowledge the "political wing" of Hezbollah had of this?
Did their colleagues in the "military wing" not tell them about the attack? Or forget to send the memo? If the "military wing" did indeed go so wildly off-piste without any "political" direction, who was punished for this? Were there resignations, drummings-out or any other such activities?
It can hardly be the case that nobody from the "military wing" boasted about it. After all, one of the Israeli victims was pregnant.
If the EU cannot tell us that, perhaps it can tell us this: In 1983 a Hezbollah attack on a French military barracks in Lebanon killed 58 French peace-keeping soldiers. Can the EU please tell us if it has any information whether the "political wing" of Hezbollah had any knowledge of, or involvement in, this attack? Or was it just one of those communication breakdowns so familiar to everyone who works in an office -- you know, when no one knows what anyone else is doing?
Furthermore, earlier this year, in March, a court in Cyprus convicted and imprisoned a Hezbollah operative who was found to have been scouting the island finding out information on Israeli tourists. Unless Hossam Taleb Yaccoub was a plane-and-bus spotter with some innocent if unquenchable interest in Israeli planes and buses, it would seem -- as the court found -- that he was helping enable some future attack on what is, after all (in the non-Turkish-occupied part of Cyprus) European soil.
Does the EU have any views as to whether Mr. Yaccoub's activities were known to any members of the "political wing" of Hezbollah? Or was it another of those FBI / CIA types of cases where lots of people want to claim the credit and various agencies end up not speaking to each other? It must have been an awful shock for those working in the offices of the "political wing" when Mr. Yaccoub was arrested. After all, it is so out of character for the organization. Some of those "political wing" office staff must have seriously wondered about their loyalty to the organization when they found out how different the various wings' activities and concerns actually are.
It is also urgent that the EU alert the "political wing" of Hezbollah to a truly disturbing story emerging in Syria. It seems to be the case -- according to multiple witnesses on the ground -- that the "military wing" of Hezbollah is engaged in military activities inside Syria. This will doubtless come as a terrible shock to Hezbollah's ivory-tower politicos. But it seems that many thousands of their colleagues might be involved. Their actions include shooting, blowing up and otherwise targeting those who are guilty of not being pro-Bashar al-Assad. If the Hezbollah "political wing" is unaware of this, then the EU must bring the matter to their attention. After all, it is a most disgraceful way to divert what must be limited funds during a period of global economic downturn. If the naughty "military wing" had not diverted its money into buying guns, bullets, rocket-propelled grenades and the like, then the "political wing" could almost certainly have used the money to pay for some new posters, flyers or some television attack-ads.
As any fair-minded observer would agree, it must be a most difficult situation that the "political wing" of Hezbollah now finds itself in: after all, nobody likes to be made to look a fool, but unfortunately that is exactly what the "political wing" of Hezbollah is beginning to look like. For it does appear that, unbeknownst to the "political wing," while its members were going about their respectable daily business, with absolutely no private army of their own, some of their colleagues were heading around the globe, committing massacres and terrorist attacks.
This must be very embarrassing for them. But fortunately, help is at hand. For now that the EU has banned one "wing" of Hezbollah and not the other, the EU can ensure that the appropriate funds go only to the respectable "political" wing of the organization. With its remarkable ability to keep an eye on any and all financial matters -- a track record only strengthened since the collapse of the Eurozone -- the EU can be relied upon to do for Hezbollah what it cannot do for its own books, and forensically account for every penny heading to and from the group's headquarters.
So Hezbollah are going to have to watch out. The EU will be watching them closely. And it will know every step of the way where they are putting their money. If any of it looks as if it's going into the wrong office in the building, the EU will be onto them.
Of course it might just go to the Secretary General himself, who happens to be the head of both the "political" and "military" wings of Hezbollah. But the EU will doubtless keep a watchful eye on him, too. If Hassan Nasrallah puts the loot into his right pocket, that will be fine. But if he puts it into his left pocket, he could be in serious trouble.
The EU has invented an extraordinary policy. How interesting it is going to be watching them try to live with it.
Related Topics:  Douglas Murray

Christians Murdered Nonstop in Nigeria
Muslim Persecution of Christians: May, 2013

by Raymond Ibrahim
July 30, 2013 at 4:30 am
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A man accused of helping a Saudi woman convert to Christianity was sentenced to six years in prison and 300 lashes. The daughter was also sentenced to six years and 300 lashes, causing her to flee, reportedly to Sweden, where authorities are trying to find her and extradite her back to Saudi Arabia.
Nigeria continues to be the most dangerous nation for Christians—where more Christians have been killed last year than all around the Muslim world combined. In one instance, Boko Haram Muslim militants stormed the home of a Pentecostal pastor and secretary of the Christian Association of Nigeria, and opened fire on him, instantly murdering him.
Separately, other Boko Haram gunmen killed 14 Christians, including the cousin and two nephews of the Rev. Moses Thliza, head of a Christian organization dedicated to preventing AIDS and caring for AIDS patients and orphans: Said Thliza: "My cousin, Bulus [Paul] Buba, was dragged out at gunpoint from his house by the Boko Haram members. They collected his car keys, demanded money and asked him three times to renounce his Christian faith, and three times he declined to do so [prompting them to execute him]. The attackers met three guards on duty, killed two of them by cutting their necks with knives, and then proceeded to take the third guard, Amtagu Samiyu, at gunpoint to lead them to where the keys of the deputy governor's house is."
As for some Christians observing a wake two kilometers away, Boko Haram Muslims asked to know what was going on there, and when they learned that people were saying prayers for an elderly Christian woman who had died, they charged in and shot into the crowd. "The attackers went there and shot indiscriminately at the worshippers, killing eight Christians—two women and six elderly men," said Thliza. "In all, we buried 14 Christians. Some were injured and taken to the hospital."
Despite all this, when the Nigerian government tried militarily to confront and neutralize Boko Haram, the Obama administration criticized it, warning it not to violate the "human rights" of the Islamic terrorists.
Categorized by theme, the rest of May's roundup of Muslim persecution of Christians around the world includes (but is not limited to) the following accounts, listed by theme and in country alphabetical order, not necessarily according to severity:
Church Attacks
Bosnia: The Serbian Orthodox church of Saint Sava in Sarajevo, where Muslims make up approximately half of the population, was "desecrated" and six of its windows panes broken. The unidentified vandals wrote "Allah" in dark paint twice on the church wall. A month earlier, unidentified persons tried to set the church on fire.
Central African Republic: According to the Episcopal Commission for Justice and Peace, since an Islamic rebel leader proclaimed himself president, the situation for Christians, has "deeply worsened." The organization warns against "the evil intentions for the programmed and planned desecration and destruction of religious Christian buildings, and in particular the Catholic and Protestant churches…. All over the country the Catholic Church has paid a high price." Several dioceses have been seriously damaged and plundered, and priests and nuns attacked (more information below, under "Dhimmitude.")
Egypt: Two Coptic Christian churches were attacked, one in Alexandria, the other in Upper Egypt. St. Mary in Alexandria was attacked by Molotov cocktails and bricks, causing the gate to burn and the stained glass windows to shatter. One thousand Christians tried to defend the church against 20,000 Muslims screaming "Allahu Akbar" ["Allah is Greater"]. One Copt was killed and several injured. In the village of Menbal in Upper Egypt, after "Muslim youths" harassed Christian girls—including hurling bags of urine at them—and Coptic men came to their rescue, another Muslim mob stormed the village church of Prince Tadros el-Mashreki. They hurled stones and broke everything inside the church, including doors and windows. The mob then went along the streets looting and destroying all Coptic-owned businesses and pharmacies and torching cars. Any Copt met by the mob in the street was beaten.
Iran: Because it refused to stop using the national Persian language during its services—which makes the Gospel intelligible to all Iranian Muslims, some of whom converted—the Central Assemblies of God Church in Tehran was raided by security services during a prayer meeting; its pastor taken to an unknown location, and the church was searched and its books, documents and equipment seized. Security agents posted a sign stating that the church was now closed. One local source said, "They constantly threaten the church leaders and their families with imprisonment, unexplained accidents, kidnapping and even with execution. We cannot go on like this." A number of its members have already been killed and its activities greatly restricted over the last few years.
Libya: The Catholic Church of the Immaculate Conception in Benghazi was bombed. In the words of the Apostolic Vicar of Tripoli, "They put a bomb at the entrance of the corridor leading to the courtyard where there is the door of the church. The church, therefore, was not touched directly, but the attack is not a positive sign. The Church in Libya is suffering. In Benghazi the Coptic Church was hit, its chaplain was killed and now the Catholic Church. As I reported on other occasions, in Cyrenaica different religious women's institutes have been forced to close their doors, in Tobruk, Derna, Beida, Barce, as well as in Benghazi. The nuns who were forced to leave, served the population with generosity."
Syria: A violent explosion destroyed the church and convent of the Capuchin Franciscan Friars in Deir Ezzor. According to Fr. Haddad of the region, "It was the only church in Deir Ezzor [that] so far still remained almost untouched." It is not clear how it was destroyed, but some say a car bomb was placed next to the church. Fr. Haddad lamented that, as in other regions, "there are no more Christians" left in Ezzor, due to "all this hate and desecration."
Tanzania: During a service to mark its official opening, a new church in a predominantly Christian suburb was bombed, killing at least five people and wounding some 60. According to a local source, "This was… a well-planned attack. Even before it, the threat was given and we still have many threats. Pray for us, and that God will overcome all these in Jesus' name." He added that, "radical camps in the country were teaching young Muslims that Christians must be killed or live as second-class citizens," or dhimmis. Among those arrested, four were Saudi Arabian nationals. The bombing follows the slaying of two church leaders in February, and the shooting in the face of a third on Christmas Day. In October, several church buildings were torched and vandalized.
Apostasy, Blasphemy, Proselytism
Egypt: Twenty-four-year-old Demiana Ebeid Abdelnour, a social studies teacher, was fired and arrested for comparing the late Coptic Pope Shenouda to Islam's prophet Muhammad, "as well as putting her hand on her neck or her stomach every time she mentioned [Islam's prophet] Muhammad," which was interpreted by some students under 10-years-old as disgust. She would be the last Coptic Christian victim to be arrested or imprisoned in a "defamation of Islam" spree that began under now ousted President Morsi. One Coptic activist wondered, Why is defamation of religion a one-way street, only for the benefit of the Muslims, while Christianity is defamed every day?" He added that Sheikh Abu Islam, who tore and burned the Holy Bible, has not been detained.
Iran: Vahid Hakkani, a Christian prisoner in Shiraz, is suffering from internal digestive bleeding. Although doctors have diagnosed his condition as critical, and have recommended urgent surgery, prison officials have not allowed his transfer to any hospital. Earlier, Hakkani and other Christians were gathered for worship in a house-church when they were arrested "for participating in house-church services, evangelizing and promoting Christianity, having contact with foreign Christian ministries, propagating against the regime and disturbing national security."
Kashmir: Two Christians accused of carrying out "acts of proselytism," for distributing pamphlets and publications with biblical passages to some young Muslims, were savagely beaten by a mob, and later arrested by police, "who rescued them from a secure lynching." Separately, the "United Jihad Council" said that Christian missionaries in Kashmir are "highly reprehensible" and have a "hidden agenda [to] exploit the poor and the needy, offering them economic aid to convert them to Christianity." He noted that "Islam is the religion of peace and harmony, and that protects minorities. However, anti-Islam activities [evangelization] cannot be tolerated." The United Jihad Council accordingly calls on all Christian missionaries "immediately to leave the valley of Kashmir," warning, "If not, they will suffer the consequences."
Kazakhstan: Despite the nation's president recently boasting that, "Kazakhstan is an example to the world of equal rights and freedoms for all citizens" and that, "religious freedom is fully secured" in the country, the Barnabas Fund states that the government "has instructed people to report any individuals who speak about their faith with others in public to the police," as "talking about one's faith with others constitutes missionary activity, which requires personal registration… Compulsory prior censorship of all printed and imported religious literature is another way in which the state controls Christian activity. Confiscation of religious books appears to be increasing, with Christians amongst those most likely to be targeted."
Morocco: A fatwa by the government's top Islam authority, partially based on the teachings of Islam's prophet Muhammad, calls for the execution of those Muslims who leave Islam, causing many Christian converts to live in fear. Lamented one Christian: "The fatwa showed us that our country is still living in the old centuries—no freedom, no democracy. Unfortunately, we feel that we aren't protected. We can be arrested or now even killed any time and everywhere. The majority of the Christian Moroccan leaders have the same feeling. We are more followed now by the secret police than before. Only the Grace of our Lord Jesus Christ gives us courage and peace."
Saudi Arabia: A Christian Lebanese man, accused of helping a Saudi women convert to Christianity, was sentenced to six years in prison and 300 lashes. Even so, the father of the woman claims the punishment is not sufficient. The daughter was also sentenced to six years and 300 lashes, causing her to flee, reportedly to Sweden, where authorities are trying to find her and extradite her back to the Saudi Arabia. Another man, a Saudi national who reportedly forged a travel document to help the woman flee, was sentenced to two years in jail and 200 lashes.
Dhimmitude
[General Abuse of Non-Muslims as Third-Class "Citizens," or Dhimmis]
Central African Republic: Christians are being terrorized, killed, and plundered by Islamic militants, who seized control of the country in March, even as international media and government ignore the crisis. In what one pastor is calling "a reign of terror," Muslims are tying up, beating and forcing Christians to pay money to save their lives. Many have been killed or wounded. The Barnabas Fund states that "rebels have a hit list of pastors and other Christian workers, and that places of worship are being attacked. Christian property is being looted. In one incident towards the end of last month, Seleka [Islamic] troops seized all the collection money given at a gathering of church leaders. Many Christians have fled their homes to the countryside and are too fearful to return. More than 200,000 people are internally displaced, while 49,000 refugees have been registered in neighbouring countries." On 10 May, Human Rights Watch released a report citing "grave violations" committed by the Seleka rebels against civilians, including pillage, summary executions, rape and torture. One pastor of a besieged church was shot dead when he went out holding a Bible aloft as a sign of peace.
Egypt: Mohamed Abu Samra, secretary-general of the Islamic Jihad Party, asserted that "it is permissible to kill some Christians today," justifying it by adding "Those who came out with weapons, their blood is allowed for us [to spill], as a fighter is not considered dhimmi." In Islamic law, a dhimmi is a non-Muslim who is permitted to exist provided he pays monetary tribute and lives as a submissive, lowly subject, according to Koran 9:29. Those Coptic Christian activists who vocally called for the removal of former Islamist president Morsi were not doing that, thereby becoming fair game for killing.
Indonesia: After an earlier Christmas Eve attack, during which members of Filadelfia Batak Christian Protestant Church were pelted with rotten eggs, dung and plastic bags full of urine, the pastor was attempting to leave the scene with his wife when Abdul Aziz, the leader of the mob who had earlier threatened to kill him, moved to attack him. Because the pastor stopped the Muslim agitator's blow with his hand to protect his wife and himself, he is now facing assault charges. Islamic law, based on the "Conditions of Omar," forbids Christians from raising their hands to Muslims, even in self-defense. The church has been meeting outside and in homes since its building was sealed off by authorities to appease Islamists in 2010—despite its having met all conditions for a building permit, as well as a Supreme Court ruling that a permit should be granted.
Pakistan: Over the course of five days, a Muslim mob tortured Javaid Anjum, a teenaged Christian student to death, because he dared drink water from the tap of an Islamic seminary while on a long journey to visit his grandfather. When Muslims discovered he was Christian, they forced him into the seminary, where they tried to force him to renounce Christianity and convert to Islam. When he refused, for five days, Muslim seminary students electrocuted him, broke his arm, and pulled out his fingernails. The electric shocks caused his kidneys to fail and he eventually died.
About this Series
Because the persecution of Christians in the Islamic world is on its way to reaching pandemic proportions, "Muslim Persecution of Christians" was developed to collate some—by no means all—of the instances of persecution that surface each month. It serves two purposes:
1) To document that which the mainstream media does not: the habitual, if not chronic, Muslim persecution of Christians.
2) To show that such persecution is not "random," but systematic and interrelated—that it is rooted in a worldview inspired by Sharia.
Accordingly, whatever the anecdote of persecution, it typically fits under a specific theme, including hatred for churches and other Christian symbols; sexual abuse of Christian women; forced conversions to Islam; apostasy and blasphemy laws that criminalize and punish with death those who "offend" Islam; theft and plunder in lieu of jizya (financial tribute expected from non-Muslims); overall expectations for Christians to behave like dhimmis, or second-class, "tolerated" citizens; and simple violence and murder. Sometimes it is a combination.
Because these accounts of persecution span different ethnicities, languages, and locales—from Morocco in the West, to India in the East, and throughout the West wherever there are Muslims—it should be clear that one thing alone binds them: Islam—whether the strict application of Islamic Sharia law, or the supremacist culture born of it.
Raymond Ibrahim is author of Crucified Again: Exposing Islam's New War in Christians (published by Regnery in cooperation with Gatestone Institute, April 2013). He is a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center and an associate fellow at the Middle East Forum.
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Related Topics:  Raymond Ibrahim

A Taliban "Apology"

by Fiamma Nirenstein
July 30, 2013 at 4:00 am
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"The Taliban thought you were waging a campaign of defamation against their efforts to establish an Islamic system in Swat. Return home, adopt Islamic and Pastu culture and enroll yourself in a girl's Islamic madrassa." — Adnan Rashid, Taliban leader, to Malala Yousufzai, shot in the face by his group for wanting a education.
On July 17th, the leader of Pakistan's "Tehriru Taliban," Adnan Rashid, managing to make headlines around the world, apologized to Malala Yousufzai. She received a special message on her 16th birthday, July 12. She had given a moving speech at the UN on how the Taliban wanted to kill her because, despite widespread discrimination against women in Pakistan, she had wanted to go to school and learn. She urged children not get caught up in fear, but rise up against the ban on education. The UN, perhaps forgetting that this was a criticism of the Islamic world, responded with an enormous round of applause.
Then, however, a strange letter addressed to Malala arrived, with a copy delivered to Channel Four News in England. Written by Adnan Rashid, in it he explains that he was shocked by the attack (which he calls as an "incident"), and as they are both part of the Yousufzai tribe; feels remorse for what happened, and wishes it had never happened. Rashid's Tehriru Taliban is the group that had claimed responsibility for the attack on Malala Yousufzai.
While offering his friendship and apologies, he goes on to say that when he was in prison (during an eight-year sentence), he wanted to ask her to avoid any anti-Taliban activities. "Careful, the Taliban did not attack you because you went to school or wanted to learn. We are not against the education of any man, woman or child. The Taliban thought that you were intentionally waging a defamation campaign against their efforts to establish an Islamic system in Swat and that your writings could be provocative." As he continues, Rashid -- without denying his dedication to Sharia, to shooting anyone who violates it, or, in a common form of violence against women, attacking them with acid -- justifies his group's acts of violence: "Why do we blow up schools?" It is, he explains, because schools become places of control and surveillance against the Taliban. Rashid then asks Malala to abandon her ambitions and focus on the future: "Return home, adopt Islamic and Pashtu culture and enroll yourself in a girl's Islamic madrassa."
So, the Taliban leader, evidently aware that the girl has aroused a powerful wave of disapproval towards his organization and Islamic discrimination against women in general, is now concerned with reestablishing the Taliban's good reputation, and understands how more effectively to advance a dialogue with the Americans in Afghanistan.
He starts a debate with a 16-year-old girl who was shot in the head -- an ambitious move but also a signal of internal weakness. His argument falls apart when he explains that it is better to be attacked by the Taliban than by the Americans: "Be honest, if you were hit by a drone, the world would never have cared about your health. Would anyone have asked you to speak before the UN?" The only thing missing is for Rashid to ask Malala to thank him for the bullets that struck her head, face and neck when she was on her way to school on 9 October 2012, leaving her in critical condition at hospital for three months.
Judging by Rashid's words, when the Americans leave Afghanistan, Afghani women had better be ready.
Fiamma Nirenstein, journalist and author, former Vice-President of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the Italian Chamber of Deputies, and member of the Italian delegation at the Council of Europe.
This article originally appeared in slightly different form in Italian in Il Giornale; English copyright, Gatestone Institute.
Related Topics:  Fiamma Nirenstein

Iran: Can Rouhani Deliver?

by Nir Boms and Shayan Arya
July 30, 2013 at 3:00 am
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Rouhani's campaign symbol was a giant golden key, which he waved at rallies to symbolize his ability to open locked doors. To an Iranian electorate all too familiar with locked doors in every aspect of their lives -- both domestic and international -- even the remote possibility of things getting better was irresistible. But now that Rouhani has been elected, he may find it difficult to deliver on his promise.
Last week, more than 250 Iranian steel workers gathered in front of the Supreme Leader's residence in protest against unjustified layoffs and unpaid salaries. They were not the only ones. Reports from the past week revealed a dozen other such protests and strikes that range from a tire company, cable workers, the cinema association and even employees of Iran's Ministry of Youth Affairs.
Protests and demonstrations are not that common in Iran; their last wave was met with harsh repression and violence. Now they have spread again and become more brazen. Signs again read "Down with the dictator," while police used tear gas in an attempt to scare protesters away.
A combination of international sanctions and domestic mismanagement has resulted in rapidly rising unemployment and restive unemployed youth. The worsening economic conditions were also a key driver for the vote for change which took place in Tehran during the last Presidential election. But change is still a long way off.
Rouhani's victory by such a wide margin was not just a testament to his politics, but seemingly a total rejection of the more conservative candidates more closely aligned with the widely despised supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
Rouhani's campaign symbol was a giant golden key, which he waved at rallies to symbolize his ability to open locked doors. To an Iranian electorate all too familiar with locked doors in every aspect of their lives -- both domestic and international -- even the remote possibility of things getting better was irresistible. But now that Rouhani has been elected, he may find it difficult to deliver on his promise.
Rouhani, to be sure, will face a mountain of problems, even compared to those of his predecessors. Iran's international isolation has never been so severe. There is virtually no segment of Iran's economy, or for that matter of Iranian society, that has been immune to the ill effects of the economic sanctions. In less than a year, Iran's currency has lost two-thirds of its value against the dollar; and even by the most optimistic estimates, inflation is above 30%, with unemployment reaching similar proportions among urban youth.
Iran's economy is under attack from two major fronts: international sanctions and domestic mismanagement inherent in the Islamic system.
Sanctions are not a new phenomenon there. Previous sanctions were imposed in response to the Islamic regime's international support for terrorism and Iran's dismal human rights record. But the more stringent sanctions now afflicting Iran were levied in response to the country's nuclear program -- and these are the crippling sanctions Rouhani needs to undo. To accomplish such a change, a change of policy is required. In addition to the nuclear issue, any negotiations for lifting sanctions obviously need to include Iran's abandoning support for Hezbollah, its involvement in Syria, its continued support of other terrorist groups, as well as the Assad regime that continues to slaughter its people.
Rouhani's first challenge is that he does not hold the keys to most of these issues. Iran's policies on the nuclear issue, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, international terrorism and supporting the Assad regime are the sole purview of Iran's supreme leader. No president has ever been able to enter these domains in any meaningful way, let alone alter them substantially; these issues have, in fact, always been sources of tension and discreet friction between presidents and the supreme leader.
Another challenge lies in the United States Congress. As many of the sanctions against Iran have been embedded in laws, it would take a Herculean effort on the part of President Obama to convince the legislative branch to change them. Even if the president were to decide to "trust" Rohani, he would still need to convince Congress. Given the political atmosphere in Washington, it is unlikely the president would even consider risking his remaining political capital on lifting sanctions without being able to demonstrate substantial progress in changing Iran's course.
A third challenge lies on the domestic front. Here Rouhani must face an endemic system of corruption, in addition to gangs of Revolutionary Guards [IRGC], who have extended their control over almost every aspect of Iran's economy, government, military and security apparatus. To change that, Rouhani would have to tackle the IRGC and their powerful ally, the Supreme Leader Khamenei, who sees them as his extended arm for controlling Iran and key to the Islamic regime's survival.
All of this puts Rouhani in a tight spot. His mandate came from the Iranian people, who chanted "Free the political prisoners," "The Green Movement is alive" and "Death to the dictator" during his election rallies and victory celebrations. The people were demanding the lifting of sanctions and the economic improvements that might follow. However, Rouhani has no substantial control over the policies that might yield this change -- a question separate from whether he even wants to change course, considering both his past statements and deep involvement with the Iranian establishment.
In the interim, Rouhani still enjoys some good will. He appears to have reignited the hopes of many, and even before he assumes office, the value of Iran's rial currency has significantly improved against the dollar. But good will can only go only so far against the reality of stagnation. Hopes create expectations but reality, as we have just seen in Egypt, requires more than hollow promises.
The golden key, Mr. Rouhani's campaign symbol, now carries the burden of promises and expectations. What is certain is that an attempt to open this locked door is at hand, and those who seek change, and their opponents, are readying themselves for a brutal battle. The golden key may end up opening the only door it can in Iran: a Pandora's box that will create additional tensions. And the higher the promises fly, the lower might be their fall.
Dr. Nir Boms is a co-founder of CyberDissidensts.org. Shayan Arya is an Iranian activist and a member of the Constitutionalist Party of Iran (Liberal Democrat).
Related Topics:  Iran

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