In this mailing:
- Robert Ellis: A Hot Turkish Autumn
- Yaakov Lappin: How U.S. Actions are Seen in the Middle East
- Mohshin Habib: Brothel in Bangladesh Stormed by Islamists
A Hot Turkish Autumn
by Robert Ellis
September 5, 2013 at 5:00 am
September 5, 2013 at 5:00 am
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Since the
Taksim events, Erdogan's behavior has seemed closer to that of an old-style
Arab military ruler who considers any opposition or disagreement with his
opinion a conspiracy." — Jihad al-Zein, former AKP supporter.
Mustafa Balbay, a Turkish journalist who has been sentenced to 34 years and
8 months imprisonment for allegedly plotting to overthrow the government, has
predicted a politically hot autumn. [1]The Gezi Park protests, which spread to 79 out of Turkey's 81 provinces, represent to date the most serious threat to Prime Minister Erdoğan's rule. A report by the Eurasia Global Research Centre (AGAM), a Turkish think tank, concludes that the handling of the crisis was "a strategic mistake" and that the lack of dialogue caused the protests to escalate. [2]
In contrast to President Abdullah Gül, who said that the protesters' message had been received, Erdoğan embarked on a series of mass rallies and vilified the demonstrators as marauders, terrorists and pitiful rodents in language reminiscent of Der Stürmer. This only served to reinforce his image as a Kasımpaşalı kabadayı (tough guy from the Istanbul district of Kasımpaşa) among the masses, and increase the polarization that already existed in Turkey.
Turkey's Prime
Minister Erdoğan at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, Davos, 2009.
(Photo credit: World Economic Forum)
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There has been a roundup of protesters all over Turkey – by late July, 715 were already detained – and the crackdown continues. In the same period, the Turkish Journalists Union (TGS) claims that at least 22 journalists have been fired and 37 forced to quit because of their coverage of the Gezi Park protests. Consequently, it is no wonder that Turkey's ranking has fallen to number 154 out of 179 on the Reporters Without Borders' World Press Freedom index for 2013, where Turkey is currently "the world's biggest prison for journalists." [4]
In addition, Prime Minister Erdoğan has called on his supporters to inform on their neighbours who bang pots and pans in protest against his rule; the police will install "informant boxes" in neighbourhoods, so that complaints can be made anonymously.
Mehmet Ali Şahin, deputy chairman of the ruling AK (Justice and Development) Party, has said that demonstrators should be punished with life imprisonment, according to Article 312 of the Turkish Penal Code, for attempting to overthrow the government.
Furthermore, no education loans will be granted to students who engage in resistance, stage boycotts or chant slogans, and the chanting of political slogans has been banned at football matches.
The Interior Ministry has also increased security measures on university campuses; in answer to a question about the prospect of a "hot" autumn, the Prime Minister replied: "Those who want to try will be met with the necessary response from all the security forces of this country, so that those who do not know their limits will be put in their place." [5]
The Turkish Chamber of Architects and Engineers (TMMOB), which has been both critical of the government and supportive of the Gezi Park protests, has in another late-night move by the AKP government, been removed from any involvement in city planning, and their authority to approve plans has been removed as well.
Turkey's state-run television channel, TRT, has decided to stop broadcasting a popular comedy series after the leading actors joined the Gezi Park demonstrations and, in a video, made fun of the government. This move, however, could have unfortunate consequences for Turkish Airlines, Europe's fourth largest carrier, if these sanctions were extended to their employees, who performed a public in-flight safety briefing in support of the demonstrators.
This collective paranoia is self-reinforcing and has reached unimaginable heights. A senior AKP deputy, Burhan Kuzu, has claimed that Germany was behind the Gezi protests, as it feared the competition Frankfurt Airport would face from the third airport planned for Istanbul. The Prime Minister has already claimed it is "the interest rate lobby" that is behind everything; and his deputy, Beşir Atalay, has blamed "the Jewish diaspora."
When Erdoğan's recently appointed chief advisor, Yiğit Bulut, claimed that dark forces have conspired to kill the prime minister with telekinesis, any sane person would react with derision, but sadly such conspiracy theories gain currency not only in government circles but also in the wider population.
When such thinking applies to foreign policy, the results can be unfortunate. Erdoğan has already claimed he has "evidence" that Israel was behind the uprising against Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, but this statement was strongly condemned by White House spokesman Josh Earnest as being "offensive, unsubstantiated and wrong." [6] Nevertheless, Erdoğan persists; in a recent speech in Bursa he warned, "Today Egypt, perhaps tomorrow Turkey."
Turkish foreign policy
Turkish foreign policy under the AKP government is likewise predicated on an illusion: Turkey's leadership of the Arab world in a renaissance of the Ottoman Empire. With one eye on the British Commonwealth, Turkey has set out to rebuild its leadership in former Ottoman lands in the Balkans, Middle East and Central Asia. This policy, popularly termed "zero problems with neighbors," was formulated by Professor Ahmet Davutoğlu, first as foreign policy advisor to Erdoğan and later as foreign minister. This policy of "strategic depth" rests on Turkey's geographical and historical engagement with countries with which it shares a common past and geography; in Davutoğlu's words, "a sense of regional ownership based on shared interests and common ideals." [7]Nuray Mert, professor of political science at Istanbul University and an outspoken critic of the AKP government's policies, has a different view. "The curious mixture of neo-Ottomanism and Islamism or Islamist neo-Ottomanism was based on dreams of the glorious past, overestimation of Turkey's present power and underestimation of the complexity of regional and international politics." [8]
A study of what Foreign Minister Davutoğlu actually says to the party faithful reveals the same strain of what Nuray Mert calls "irredentist nationalism." Last year in Konya he unfolded a vision of a new Islamic world order (nizam-i âlem) and Turkey's role as a world power. "This is the centenary of our exit from the Middle East. Whatever we lost between 1911 and 1923, whatever lands we withdrew from, from 2011 to 2023 we shall once again meet our brothers in those lands. This is our bounden historical duty." [9]
This vision, of creating a Sunni axis together with Saudi Arabia and Qatar and effecting a regime change in Syria, has suffered defeat together with the collapse of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Saudi Arabia's support for the coup. Moreover, it is not only Turkey's relations with Syria that have deteriorated but also those with its neighbours: Iraq, Iran, Israel, Armenia and Cyprus.
Another of Erdoğan's senior advisors, Ibrahim Kalın, defined in a Twitter Turkey's gradual isolation as "precious loneliness," but the Lebanese commentator, Jihad al-Zein, believes that Turkey's unique Muslim model has been threatened and harmed by the AKP government's "wrongheaded foreign policies." [10]
Davutoğlu's megalomania has only encouraged the Prime Minister, who makes constant reference to Turkey's Ottoman past -- not only at last September's AKP congress, where Erdoğan declared that the government was following the path of the Ottoman sultans Mehmet II and Selim I, but also by naming the new bridge over the Bosphorus after Selim I, who was responsible for the expansion of the Ottoman empire.
Jihad al-Zein, who was once a warm AKP supporter, now holds that Erdoğan has become a burden on Turkey's progress, a threat to Turkish gains and maybe even harmful to them. In short, "since the Taksim events, Erdogan's behavior has seemed closer to that of an old-style Arab military ruler who considers any opposition or disagreement with his opinion as a conspiracy."
Domestic opposition
Apart from a now-politicized youth, there are a number of other threats facing Erdoğan on the home front, including the withdrawal of support from the cemaat (Gülen movement). It was this convergence of interests that brought Erdoğan to power.In addition, the movement's control of the police and judiciary made it possible through two high-profile show trials (Sledgehammer and Ergenekon) to bring the military to heel and imprison the AKP government's opponents.
Particularly after the 2011 elections, when Gülenists, liberals and centrists were removed from the list of AKP candidates, this relationship has deteriorated to the extent of open hostility. The leader of the movement, Fethullah Gülen, a Turkish imam residing in Pennsylvania, in June 2010 criticized the government's covert support for the Gaza flotilla, which destroyed Turkey's relations with Israel: "I hear that some people in the United States consider Turkey as sitting at the epicenter of radicalism." [11]
A direct challenge to Erdoğan's authority came in February 2012, when arrest warrants were issued for Hakan Fidan, the head of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT), who had been hand-picked by Erdoğan, and two other MIT officials, because of back-channel contacts with the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party). Parliament, without the prime minister's consent, immediately passed a law to protect MIT officials from prosecution, and there was a purge of police officers suspected of belonging to the cemaat.
Specially authorized courts, which have proven effective in the Sledgehammer and Ergenekon cases, were abolished, as Erdoğan feared they were becoming "a different power within the state." [12] The government also plans to close the 4,000 schools (dershane), which prepare students for the university and public service entrance exams, as 60% of these are believed to be controlled by the Gülen movement.
The conflict has now come into the open, with criticism of Erdoğan in the Gülenist daily, Zaman, and a recent response by the Journalist and Writers Foundation (GYV) to allegations against the cemaat. [13]
The Kurdish question
Another major threat to Erdoğan's authority is the possible collapse of the Kurdish peace process, which has been facilitated by contacts between Abdullah Öcalan, the PKK leader imprisoned on Imralı island for his leadership of a terrorist organization, the BDP (the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party) deputies, and the PKK. Only about 20% of the PKK's militants are believed to have left Turkey; and if the reform package, which is expected to be put forward in September, falls short of the Kurds' expectations, this could have serious consequences. Cemal Bayık, leader of the PKK's military wing, has said that the settlement process launched by the Turkish government is on the brink of collapse and warned that the PKK is ready to launch a new war. [14]Altan Tan, a BDP deputy, has claimed that the government has secretly promised the Kurds a general amnesty, which would also mean the release of Abdullah Öcalan. In view of the fact that former chief of the general staff, Ilker Başbug, has received a life sentence for "leading a terrorist organization," this amnesty would be completely unacceptable to the majority of Turks, even if it were coupled with an amnesty for those convicted in the Sledgehammer and Ergenekon trials.
Again according to Tan, Prime Minister Erdoğan has promised a general amnesty in return for the Kurds' support in the local elections in March 2014, the presidential elections in August 2014 and the general elections in June 2015.
Massoud Barzani, the president of the KRG (Kurdistan Regional Authority), has called for a pan-Kurdish National Conference in Erbil in northern Iraq from September 15-17, which will be attended by Kurdish representatives from Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria. If what the Turkish ultranationalist daily Yeniçag (New Age) wrote recently is true, that the borders of a Greater Kurdistan will be determined at the conference, such a decision is guaranteed to upset the already fragile situation in the region. [15]
Turkey's plans to overthrow Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria have seriously backfired. Turkey has acted as a conduit for the passage of jihadists from Europe, the Caucasus, Afghanistan and North Africa -- as well as giving what Prime Minister Erdoğan calls "logistical support" to the opposition. Fighting, however, has broken out between Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and the Syrian Kurdish PYD (Democratic Union Party), a political offshoot of the PKK in Syria. The town of Ras al-Ain on the Turkish border has been captured by Kurdish forces.
With support from Massoud Barzani and the KRG, the PYD's ultimate goal -- like that of the PKK in Turkey -- is Kurdish autonomy, to which Turkey is adamantly opposed, Although Turkey has modified its position to accept a decision made by parliament, representing the nation's will, this is hardly likely in view of Syria's impending collapse.
Foreign Minister Davutoğlu has repeatedly urged the U.N. Security Council to intervene in Syria, but even "a limited and tailored response" from the U.S. will fall short of the expectations of Prime Minister Erdoğan, who has called for a Kosovo-like intervention. President Gül's call for a political strategy, on the other hand, is more that of a statesman, and underlines the difference between the two Turkish leaders.
Kemal Atatürk's dictum, "peace at home, peace in the world", has been upended by the dyad Davutoğlu and Erdoğan, but the open question now is who is going to restore Turkey's role as a centre of stability in a troubled Middle East.
Robert Ellis is a regular commentator on Turkish affairs in the Danish and international press.
Notes
[1] http://www.zaman.com.tr/gundem_mustafa-balbay-herkes-hazirlansin-sicak-bir-sonbahar-geliyor_2117354.html[2] http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ruling-akp-deputy-report-criticizes-government-handling-of-gezi-crisis.aspx?pageID=517&nID=52419&NewsCatID=338
[3] http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6f70100a-fdba-11e2-a5b1-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2dio9f1aY
[4] http://en.rsf.org/press-freedom-index-2013,1054.html
[5] http://haber.sol.org.tr/devlet-ve-siyaset/erdogandan-sonbahar-tehdidi-neyiniz-eksik-haddinizi-bildiririz-haberi-77704
[6] http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/20/us-turkey-egypt-israel-idUSBRE97J0XX20130820
[7] http://www.mfa.gov.tr/interview-by-mr_-ahmet-davuto%C4%9Flu-published-in-auc-cairo-review-_egypt_-on-12-march-2012.en.mfa
[8] http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/precious-loneliness-of-turkey-or-sublimation-of-a-failure-.aspx?pageID=449&nID=52765&NewsCatID=406
[9] http://www.zaman.com.tr/ihsan-dagi/bati-tuzagi-mi-nizam-i-alem-davasi-mi_1272837.html
[10] http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/08/erdogan-destroyed-turkish-model-foreign-policy.html
[11] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704025304575284721280274694.html
[12] http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/Default.aspx?pageID=238&nid=22673
[13] http://gyv.org.tr/Haberler/Detay/2455
[14] http://www.todayszaman.com/news-324657-terrorist-pkks-bayik-threatens-government-with-war.html
[15] http://www.yg.yenicaggazetesi.com.tr/habergoster.php?haber=87903
Related Topics: Turkey
| Robert
Ellis
How U.S. Actions are Seen in the Middle East
by Yaakov Lappin
September 5, 2013 at 4:30 am
September 5, 2013 at 4:30 am
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Jerusalem
is preparing to face down on its own any entities that threaten its security,
and direct, if need be, devastating firepower -- backed by unprecedented levels
of intelligence capabilities – at those who seek to do it harm.
Whatever decision is made by the White House and Congress on intervening in
Syria, the military cooperation between the U.S. and Israel continues to
flourish, and is deeply appreciated by Israeli defense officials.The most recent example of this cooperation came on Tuesday, when the Israeli Ministry of Defense held a missile drill over the Mediterranean Sea, with the assistance of the Pentagon and the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.
The exercise involved the firing of a new type of decoy missile in order to test the radar and tracking systems of the Arrow missile defense shield, which protects Israelis from Iranian and Syrian ballistic missile threats. Although planned in advance, the timing of the exercise could hardly be more relevant, in light of the upsurge in Iranian and Syrian threats. The test missile was initially picked up by Russian navy radars, and Moscow's announcement of its radar readouts led Israel to formally acknowledge the test soon afterwards.
President Barack Obama has been sending mixed signals over his determination to take action on WMD offenses by the Syrian regime; this in turn is casting doubt over his determination to fulfill an even more significant pledge he made regarding global security: the promise that the U.S. will not allow Iran to become a nuclear weapons state.
Whether or not Obama is successful in persuading Congress to authorize punitive military action in Syria, he has already sent out a hesitant, insecure message to the Tehran-Damascus-Hezbollah axis, first by indicating that action was imminent, and then by backtracking to seek Congress's approval.
The U-turn, which stunned even Obama's aides, came after several previous uses of chemical weapons by the Assad regime were overlooked by the U.S. Administration.
Seeking Congress's approval may, of course, make sense in terms of domestic American politics, but in the savage Middle Eastern arena, dominated by ruthless actors who search for clues of weakness among adversaries and push boundaries when they sense insecurity, Obama's actions have given the rulers in Tehran and Damascus cause for celebration.
In Syria, the Alawite regime of Bashar Assad, which is being kept alive by Iranian and Hezbollah military assistance as well as Russian arms sales, has been given valuable time to move critical assets that might be targeted in a U.S. strike. Meanwhile, Syrian and Iranian spokesmen pile on threats to set the region ablaze and boast of an American "retreat."
According to the IDF's assessments, such threats stand a low chance of being realized, but they are indicative of the uplifted mood of the Iran-led axis. The threats were not completely ignored by Israel -- despite the assessment, basic precautionary measures have been put in place. These measures included the deployment of air defenses across the country, beefing up forces on the Syria border, and calling up limited numbers of reserves to the air force, Military Intelligence, and the Home Front Command -- the military branches needed to initially contain a potential threat from Syria.
In Tehran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei will likely be feeling emboldened by the international community's struggle to get behind a limited cruise missile strike, against a small number of targets in a failed state ravaged by civil war. How much more difficult will it then be for a US-led coalition resolutely to confront Iran, a regional power, which is continuing in its march towards nuclear weapons, and which has fortified and spread out its nuclear program facilities around its vast Iranian territory?
Obama's eleventh-hour hesitation on Syria, combined with the desire to decrease America's Mideast profile, in line with a strategic shift to the Far East, and failure to back traditional, loyal U.S. allies, such as the Egyptian military against the Muslim Brotherhood, has unfortunately undermined American credibility in the cut-throat Mideast region. In the Middle East, proof of resoluteness gains respect from allies and garners fear from enemies, while talk of high ideals mixed with wavering measures gains scorn and contempt.
In the midst of the regional turmoil sits Israel, which, while hopeful that its American ally will reinstate traditional and vital US deterrence and influence, is not counting on it. Jerusalem is preparing to face down on its own any entities that threaten its security, and has made no secret of its determination to direct, if need be, devastating firepower -- backed by unprecedented levels of intelligence capabilities -- at those who seek to do it harm. Even if Israel is forced to take on its enemies alone, American-Israeli cooperation will remain a critical asset for Israeli security.
Israeli deterrence has been based on its willingness to confront its enemies and military might. These factors, observed by the Syrians, Iranians, and Hezbollah, have historically made conflict less likely, not more.
Related Topics: Israel, Syria
| Yaakov
Lappin
Brothel in Bangladesh Stormed by Islamists
by Mohshin Habib
September 5, 2013 at 3:00 am
September 5, 2013 at 3:00 am
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It appears
the leaders of both local political parties are not only competing to buy
Muslims' votes in the upcoming election, but are also interested in seizing the
valuable two-acre lot.
Hundreds of Islamists vandalized
and looted a 250-year-old brothel in the district town Madaripur on August
27th. The brothel, with 500 sex workers, was attacked before the eyes of local
police officials in the late morning by a local Islamist organization in a bid
to "evict" the sex workers, under the banner of Islahe Qoum
Parishad ("Islahe Qoum" means national reform in Arabic, and
"Parishad" means council in Bengali). About 50 sex workers were
physically assaulted; the rest fled their tin shacks. Due to the lack of
security, they did not return the following night.After the attack, the Islamists organized a rally and threatened to harm the remaining workers further if they did not leave the area.
The Islamist group, led by Mawlana Sharif, has staged a series of demonstrations in recent months, and demanded the that authorities dismantle the brothel. The local police administration echoed the Islamists: "The brothel," they said, "is not recognized by the government," despite High Court rulings on July 22 and August 26, extending the stay on any kind of removal of the brothel for one year, and ordering the Home Ministry not to harass the brothel dwellers -- a demand repeated by half-a-dozen rights organizations, including National Human Rights Commission, in a press conference.
It appears the local leaders of both main political parties of the country, along with the Islamists, are not only competing to buy Muslims' votes in the upcoming election this January, but are also interested in ejecting the sex workers from the downtown area in order to seize the valuable two-acre lot. The leaders of the brothel and the program officer of one of the rights organizations alleged that the local lawmaker and Shipping Minister Mr. Sahjahan Khan was also behind the attack -= most likely to appease the local Islamists and the conservative Muslim voters of his constituency.
Since 1998 many local NGOs, with the help of international donor agencies -- such as UN agencies, Care Bangladesh, Action Aid, Global Funds, Terre des Hommes -- have been working for the empowerment of sex workers, providing education facilities for their children and making them aware of HIV. Simultaneously, Islamists have been regularly torching and burning the sex workers' homes, and looting their belongings, sometimes with the help of politicians and the police.
In 1999 the Tanbazar brothel, one of the large brothels in the subcontinent, established in 1888, was dismantled in the name of "rehabilitation." In practice, however, contrary to the sex workers' hopes, thousands helplessly disappeared into the streets.
Later, the government evicted two more brothels; in last few years, Islamists have torched at least three others, including one of the oldest red light districts.
In 2010, for the first time, the government recognized the profession of sex workers on new national ID cards. But constant pressure from religious groups led the government to change its decision.
One of the election commissioners, Sohul Husain, explained publicly that the words "sex workers" were omitted from civil rights in line with Article 18(2) of Bangladesh's constitution, which states that gambling and prostitution should be discouraged. But the rights activists are depending upon article 40, which gives citizens the right to enter upon any lawful profession or occupation, and argues that women therefore should be able to choose that line of work as a profession.
According to a 2009 study by the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Desease Research, in Bangladesh there are more than 90,000 sex workers in the streets and brothels, who do not receive proper health care or any government provision, as exists for other citizens. This community never gets relief during disasters such as cyclones or floods. While NGOs sometimes provide for them, there is nothing in the government budget. The government subsidizes industrialists and other sectors of the population, but does not protect the sex workers in fear the that Muslim community would not like it. This large group of workers is now under threat.
Related Topics: Bangladesh
| Mohshin
Habib
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