Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Eye on Iran: Iran Ends Brief Social Media Access, Calls It Glitch







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Reuters:
"Iranians had a few hours access to Facebook and Twitter before a Web firewall went back up by Tuesday and Tehran scotched talk of new Internet freedoms by blaming a technical glitch for the brief opening of access. Late on Monday, several people in Iran found they could log in to their accounts on the U.S.-based social media sites without using techniques to circumvent blocks on Twitter and Facebook that the state imposed four years ago, during a clampdown on the biggest protests since the Islamic revolution. That prompted speculation that it might herald a broader easing of censorship under President Hassan Rouhani; last month, he succeeded Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose re-election in 2009 sparked the demonstrations, in which social media played a part. However, access was being blocked again on Tuesday and an official involved in controlling Internet usage said the brief lifting of the embargo at some Iranian Internet service providers was probably caused by a technical malfunction." http://t.uani.com/1a0ktZk

Der Spiegel: "But the long-smoldering nuclear dispute with Tehran may be about to take a sensational turn. SPIEGEL has learned from intelligence sources that Iran's new president, Hassan Rohani, is reportedly prepared to decommission the Fordo enrichment plant and allow international inspectors to monitor the removal of the centrifuges. In return, he could demand that the United States and Europe rescind their sanctions against the Islamic Republic, lift the ban on Iranian oil exports and allow the country's central bank to do international business again. Rohani reportedly intends to announce the details of the offer, perhaps already during his speech before the United Nations General Assembly at the end of the month. His foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, will meet Catherine Ashton, the European Union's top diplomat, in New York next Sunday and give her a rough outline of the deal. If he were to make such wide-ranging concessions, President Rohani would initiate a negotiating process that could conceivably even lead to a resumption of bilateral diplomatic relations with Washington... It was probably not until Rohani was sworn into office that he learned the full extent of his country's disastrous economic situation and now sees the need to take action. According to intelligence sources, the economic data is much worse than Tehran has been willing to admit. Iran can reportedly only avoid a national bankruptcy if the international sanctions are lifted and new money flows into the country." http://t.uani.com/199G7bl

NYT: "Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed on Tuesday that President Hassan Rouhani has exchanged letters with President Obama in what may be a further signal that the Iranian leader's victory in June elections has created a chance for intensified diplomacy. But, asked about the tone of Mr. Obama's letter - something the Iranians are extremely sensitive about - Marzieh Afkham, the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said Iran expected improvement in the way that Washington talks to Iran. 'Unfortunately the U.S. administration is still adopting the language of threat while dealing with Iran,' Ms. Afkham said at a weekly news conference. 'We have announced that this needs to change into the language of respect.' ... Ms. Afkham said the exchange of letters was initiated by President Obama, congratulating Mr. Rouhani on his election victory. 'The letter was a congratulatory letter on President Rouhani's presidency and in response,' Ms. Afkham said, Mr. Rouhani 'expressed thanks for the congratulations and wrote about some several issues.' ... Ms. Afkham said the letters were sent through the Swiss embassy in Tehran, which has a section looking after American interests." http://t.uani.com/1boPzxz
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Nuclear Program

AFP: "The White House said Monday there were no current plans for President Barack Obama to see Iran's new president at the UN next week, but did not definitively rule out a meeting. Obama and President Hassan Rowhani will both be at the annual United Nations General Assembly in New York, ahead of a new round of talks between Tehran and world powers on its nuclear program... 'There are currently no plans for the president to meet with his Iranian counterpart at UNGA next week,' White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters... Carney said that Washington remained willing to 'engage in the P-5 plus one or bilaterally' to end the nuclear standoff. 'But we have also been very clear that Iran has flagrantly failed to live up to its obligations under international resolutions and needs to, in a verifiable way, forsake its nuclear weapons program,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1a0oxZv

Reuters: "Iran said on Monday it wanted to settle a decade-old nuclear dispute with the West that has raised fears of a new Middle East war, but the United States said it must back words with action. New Iranian atomic energy chief Ali Akbar Salehi pledged greater cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, delivering a conciliatory message before talks this month about activities that the West suspects are aimed at developing a nuclear weapons capability... Western diplomats say that, after years of stalling, words are not enough. 'The proof will be in the pudding,' U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, who headed the U.S. delegation at the IAEA meeting, told reporters. 'The words have to be followed by concrete action.' In his speech, Moniz accused Iran of continuing to take 'provocative actions that raise legitimate concerns' about its nuclear programme, an apparent reference to recent expansion of its uranium enrichment capacity." http://t.uani.com/16AWrEi

Bloomberg: "Iran's offer to negotiate a deal on its suspected nuclear weapons program with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the five permanent United Nations Security Council members and Germany, is being met with skepticism. Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran's former foreign minister and now its top nuclear negotiator, said yesterday in Vienna that his country 'will facilitate the resolution of this issue if the other side is willing.' Iranian President Hassan Rohani is ready to decommission the Fordo uranium enrichment facility in exchange for an easing of international economic sanctions, the German news outlet Der Spiegel reported yesterday, citing unidentified intelligence officials... Decommissioning Fordo would be 'a good sign, but if they expect sanctions to be lifted in the short term, they are deluding themselves,' said David Albright, a former nuclear inspector and the president of ISIS. 'Iran will be looking at how little they can try and do to get sanction relief.'" http://t.uani.com/16gNCw6

AP: "Israel's prime minister on Tuesday urged the international community to step up pressure on Iran despite signs of possible flexibility from the new Iranian leadership in upcoming nuclear talks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his Cabinet that halting Iran's nuclear program will be the focus of his trip to the United States later this month. Netanyahu is expected to meet President Barack Obama on Sept. 30 and deliver an address to the U.N. General Assembly... Netanyahu, however, urged the world to stand tough and make four key demands, most importantly that Iran stop enriching uranium - a potential pathway to producing a nuclear weapon. According to the Israeli leader, the other three demands should be that Iran remove its existing stockpile of enriched uranium, close its enrichment facility in the central city of Qom and stop producing plutonium, which can also be used for nuclear arms." http://t.uani.com/17GCYS9 

Sanctions

Reuters: "The European Union's efforts to impose economic sanctions on Iran suffered a new setback on Monday when a top court ruled that measures against the Islamic Republic's biggest cargo carrier should be lifted. The ruling by Europe's second-highest court follows similar decisions in favour of some dozen Iranian companies in the last year, which have raised alarm in Europe and the United States. Governments in the West have been using economic sanctions such as asset freezes against banks, shipping companies and other firms in an effort to curb Iran's nuclear activities they fear aim at developing weapons. But the Luxembourg-based General Court says the EU is failing to sufficiently justify the need to impose sanctions against some targets. In the case of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), the court said on Monday that the evidence of its alleged involvement in nuclear proliferation offered by European governments 'does not justify the adoption and maintenance of restrictive measures'. Monday's ruling also included other Iranian shipping firms connected to IRISL. EU governments have two months to appeal, and sanctions will remain in place until the appeals process is exhausted." http://t.uani.com/1aHI2a6

AP: "An office tower is subject to forfeiture because revenue from it was secretly funneled to a state-owned Iranian bank in violation of a U.S. trade embargo, a judge ruled Monday. U.S. District Judge Katherine Forrest made the forfeiture finding in Manhattan, ruling in a case brought by the U.S. government in 2008. The U.S. government had said the Alavi Foundation's sole partner in the ownership of the 36-story Manhattan building was a shell company fronting for a secret interest held by the state-owned bank of Iran, Bank Melli. The Iranian government has been designated by the U.S. as a sponsor of international terrorism, an allegation it has repeatedly denied. The judge agreed that monetary transfers by the shell company, Assa Co., to Bank Melli violated money laundering statutes. 'There is substantial, un-contradicted evidence that Assa is owned and controlled by Bank Melli, and that Bank Melli is wholly owned and controlled by Iran,' the judge said." http://t.uani.com/199G7bl

FT: "Iranian shoppers are getting used to constantly rising prices, especially - and most worryingly - prices of basic commodities. Inflation over the past year has added to feelings of insecurity. Butter, for example, is increasingly scarce in Tehran and, where available, its price has doubled in the past few weeks, from 11,000 rials ($0.44) for 100 grammes to 22,000 rials. 'It is not only butter. It is almost all kinds of foodstuffs and everything else like shampoo, toothbrushes and clothes,' says Zohreh, a 45-year-old housewife. 'Prices do not cease shocking me whenever I go shopping. You see prices are rising from yesterday to today and then tomorrow.' Banafsheh, another housewife, said she bought a pair of shoes for her teenage daughter at 680,000 rials last year and bought the same pair at almost double the price this year. Inflation is running at 39 per cent a year according to the central bank. But independent economists reckon it is much higher, at 60 to 100 per cent. Prices have been driven up by international sanctions over Iran's nuclear programme, which have contributed to a more than 50 per cent fall in the value of the rial this year. But Iranian economists also blame the populist policies of former president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, such as cash distributions to the poor and other expansionary monetary policies. Now, ordinary people are questioning promises to curb inflation made by Hassan Rouhani, the centrist president, before he won election in June." http://t.uani.com/188Ia0h 

Syria Conflict

NYT: "Iran's new president, Hassan Rouhani, told Revolutionary Guards commanders on Monday that Iran would support whomever Syrians want as their leader even if it is not the country's staunch ally, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria... But Mr. Rouhani's statement came as a video surfaced online appearing to show Iranian commanders and Revolutionary Guards soldiers training and fighting alongside pro-government militias battling rebels trying to oust Mr. Assad. Taken together, the speech and the video, if it is verified, point to the dual tracks employed by Iran as it tries to navigate the Syrian civil war and its widespread impact in the region. While calling for peace and diplomacy, Iran has also aided the government's war effort... The video surfaced Friday on a Dutch current affairs program. The show's producer said it had been provided by rebels who said they had recovered it after the cameraman died in battle... In the video, men who appear to be Iranian commanders and soldiers are shown on patrol with Syrians, as well as engaged in firefights against rebels. The men speak in Persian with distinct regional accents." http://t.uani.com/1boNFwK
Opinion & Analysis

Ray Takeyh in IHT: "Credibility is a prized word in international politics. Countries that keep their promises and enforce their red lines can be counted on to deter their enemies and assure their allies. Nations, as with human beings, develop reputations, and those that break their pledges are impossible to trust. As such, the failure of the United States to bomb Syria is bound to empower Iran and reinforce its quest for nuclear arms. The only problem with such assertions is that the historical record suggests that the so-called credibility argument rests on a very thin intellectual rail. America's enemies put premium on its capabilities rather than indications of its resolve. It is Washington's allies, however, that are likely to prove sensitive to its intentions as opposed to its actual power. The events of the past few weeks have probably impacted Israel more so than Iran. The most tragic application of the credibility argument for the United States was the Vietnam War. During Washington's quarter of century involvement in Southeast Asia, successive administrations never claimed that Vietnam by itself was relevant for U.S. security, but that the failure to stop the advance of communism there was bound to embolden the Soviet Union. America fought in Vietnamese jungles to prove to the Kremlin that once the United States drew its red lines it would use all of its power to achieve its objectives. In one of the ironies of history, the collapse of U.S. efforts in Vietnam was followed a decade and a half later by the demise of the Soviet Union. The guardians of the theocratic state are clever men accustomed to sensing the subtleties of power. Although cavalier in their public pronouncements and bold in terms of their adventures in the Middle East, Iran's military men do respect America's armada assembled on their periphery. They know well that Washington is anxious to avoid a cascade of proliferation in the critical Gulf region. And they know that the United States has the military power to destroy their nuclear infrastructure. It is this calculus more so than America's reticence in Syria that weighs on the minds of the mullahs. Given the fact that Iran appreciates U.S. power, how can one account for its nuclear truculence? Just because Tehran recognizes the reality of American strength that does not mean that Iran will readily acquiesce to its mandates. The clerical leaders have their own version of two-track policy to forestall an American attack. On the one hand, they point to their deterrent capability - terrorist allies such as Hezbollah are emphasized and the notion of inflicting damage on America's military and diplomatic personnel is subtly stressed.  At the same time, Iran has entangled the United States in a prolonged diplomatic process that has successfully deferred a military response. Iran's diplomatic track has been complemented by a charm offensive emphasizing its readiness to arrive at a mutually satisfactory settlement. It is very hard for Washington to justify a strike on Iran given the probability of retaliation and Tehran's seeming willingness to resolve the issue at the negotiating table." http://t.uani.com/18uKZMZ

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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