Friday, September 20, 2013

Eye on Iran: Iran's Rouhani Urges World Leaders to 'Seize the Opportunity' His Election Presents







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WashPost:
"Iranian President Hassan Rouhani urged other world leaders Thursday to take advantage of the opportunity for better relations with Iran that his election represents, writing in The Washington Post that the 'age of blood feuds' has passed. Rouhani, the only relative moderate among candidates in Iran's presidential election in June, underscored the break from the leadership of predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with an op-ed that appears in Friday's Post. Rouhani immediately tweeted the article. Rouhani offered Iran's services as a go-between in Syria's civil war and invited talks about Iran's disputed nuclear program. 'Iranians embraced my approach to domestic and international affairs because they saw it as long overdue,' Rouhani wrote. 'I'm committed to fulfilling my promises to my people, including my pledge to engage in constructive interaction with the world.' ... The Iranian leader makes clear that he remains committed to Iran's right to have what he called a peaceful nuclear energy program, including the right to enrich uranium for fuel. That ability is the sticking point in intermittent international negotiations over a program that the United States, Israel and allies suspect is aimed at building a nuclear bomb. 'To us, mastering the atomic fuel cycle and generating nuclear power is as much about diversifying our energy resources as it is about who Iranians are as a nation, our demand for dignity and respect and our consequent place in the world,' Rouhani wrote." http://t.uani.com/15byfF4

Guardian: "The White House has hinted at the possibility of a historic meeting with Iranian president Hassan Rouhani during his visit to the United Nations next week, praising what it called 'welcome rhetoric' from Iran on nuclear weapons. In the latest sign of a thaw in relations between the two countries, White House spokesman Jay Carney acknowledged 'dramatic' shifts in Tehran's language but stressed the need to see it matched by actions... 'We obviously notice a significant change in language and tone, it's rather dramatic, but it's important we don't just take Iran's word for it,' said Carney. 'The release of political prisoners is a welcome action. The welcome rhetoric over nuclear weapons is just that. Words are not a substitute for action and we need to see follow-through.' ... Carney again hinted this was possible, but insisted the US had always been willing to talk to Iran about ending the alleged nuclear weapons programme. Asked if the two leaders would meet in New York, he replied: 'We will see. It has always been possible.' He added: 'The president has said all along that he would be willing to have that meeting providing that Iran demonstrates its seriousness in dealing with its nuclear weapons programme.'" http://t.uani.com/1dviUEQ

WSJ: "As Iran seeks to improve relations with the West, the U.S. and its allies hold an important trump card: The world isn't desperate for Iranian oil. Iran's oil output has fallen by one million barrels a day from 2010 levels, in large measure due to U.S. and European Union sanctions on crude-oil sales. Countries that still buy from Iran under waivers from sanctions have reduced volumes. The nation that holds the world's fourth-biggest petroleum reserves and had ranked as the world's sixth-biggest oil producer now barely makes the top 10, pumping less than 2.7 million barrels of oil a day. While Iran has shuttered wells amid sliding sales, U.S. oil output has surged to 25-year highs, reducing imports and leaving more supply in the market for Iran's former customers. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, has boosted its flow to a three-decade high, helping to cover lost supply from Iran. 'As things stand right now, the market doesn't need Iran' to restore that lost output, said Michael Wittner, head of commodities research in the Americas for Societe Generale. 'There is no shortage of crude in the sense that people can't get cargoes when they want them.' In other words, Mr. Wittner said, the world's growing appetite for oil likely won't play a role in any talks of easing sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1a9IPzP

Election Repression Toolkit 
Nuclear Program

NYT: "Only two weeks after Washington and the nation were debating a unilateral military strike on Syria that was also intended as a forceful warning to Iran about its nuclear program, President Obama finds himself at the opening stages of two unexpected diplomatic initiatives with America's biggest adversaries in the Middle East, each fraught with opportunity and danger... 'The common thread is that you don't achieve diplomatic progress in the Middle East without significant pressure,' Benjamin J. Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser, said Thursday. 'In Syria, it was the serious threat of a military strike; in Iran it was a sanctions regime built up over five years.' ... Skeptics - and there are plenty in the National Security Council, the Pentagon, America's intelligence agencies and Congress - are not so optimistic. They think Mr. Obama runs the risk of being dragged into long negotiations and constant games of hide-and-seek that, ultimately, will result in little change in the status quo. They argue that the president's hesitance to pull the trigger on Tomahawk strikes on Syria nearly two weeks ago, and the public and Congressional rebellion at the idea of even limited military strikes, were unmistakable signals to the Syrian and Iranian elites that if diplomacy fails, the chances of military action ordered by the American president are slight." http://t.uani.com/1dvjgLH

NYT: "Iran's leaders, seizing on perceived flexibility in a private letter from President Obama, have decided to gamble on forging a swift agreement over their nuclear program with the goal of ending crippling sanctions, a prominent adviser to the Iranian leadership said Thursday. The adviser, who participated in top-level discussions of the country's diplomatic strategy, said that Mr. Obama's letter, delivered to Iran's new president, Hassan Rouhani, about three weeks ago, promised relief from sanctions if Tehran demonstrated a willingness to 'cooperate with the international community, keep your commitments and remove ambiguities.' The text of the letter has not been made public, but the adviser described its contents in an interview in his office on Thursday. A senior American official did not dispute the general outlines of the letter as described by the longtime adviser and Iranian political expert, Amir Mohebbian. But the official said Mr. Obama had not promised Iran quick relief from sanctions, and had steered clear of any detailed proposal... The leadership is also desperate to escape the withering financial sanctions imposed in recent years, particularly the ban on Iranian money transfers through the Swift system. It can live without oil sales, analysts have said, but not without the ability to transfer money. Mr. Mohebbian said Iran is hoping the White House will lift some sanctions as a gesture to show its seriousness about the talks. 'We particularly want to be readmitted to the Swift system,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1fhlz6E

Reuters: "Israel said on Thursday a U.S. television interview in which Iranian President Hassan Rouhani pledged that Tehran would never develop nuclear weapons was an Iranian attempt to deceive the world. 'One must not be fooled by the Iranian president's fraudulent words,' said a statement issued by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office. 'The Iranians are spinning in the media so that the centrifuges can keep on spinning,' it said, referring to Iranian uranium enrichment that Israel believes is aimed at developing nuclear weapons... The Israeli statement said Iran was out to achieve a deal in which it would agree to give up an 'inconsequential' part of its nuclear program while moving ahead with other activities that would enable it to build a bomb quickly from the moment it decides to do so." http://t.uani.com/19nurlm

Reuters: "Iran's clerical leadership has told security hardliners to stay out of politics, in effect instructing them not to wreck the new centrist government's attempt to solve an intractable nuclear dispute with West. If the message to the Revolutionary Guards from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and new President Hassan Rouhani was meant as an admonition, however, it was a friendly one. The request was delicate since the military force has accumulated great economic and political power in recent years and is omnipresent in the life of the nation. Such is the Guards' influence in political, social and economic affairs that they could disrupt any rapprochement with the West if they felt this would damage their interests." http://t.uani.com/18HCFUo

Sanctions

Reuters: "The United States and its allies are clamping down on suspected Hezbollah activity in West Africa, which Washington says is a major source of cash for the Lebanese group as its patron Iran feels the pinch of sanctions... '(West Africa) is more important in the sense that what they're getting from Iran is squeezed. Iran's capacity to fund Hezbollah has been impaired,' said David Cohen, U.S. treasury undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence. 'There's reason to think Hezbollah is not just collecting money but it is also using these outposts as places where they can plan and conduct activities,' he added. Nigeria, with support from Israel, says it has uncovered a Hezbollah cell and arms cache and arrested has locals it accuses of spying for Iran." http://t.uani.com/19k6yMG

Reuters: "India's imports of Iranian oil shot up in August to more than four times the volume taken in July as one refiner resumed purchases after a four-month break, but the average annual pace of shipments is still far below last year's levels. India's intake of Iranian oil to date in 2013 is down over 40 percent on the year because international sanctions aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear programme have made it difficult to insure refineries and ships involved in the trade and forced some oil payments to be made in rupee. Even though Indian oil minister M. Veerappa Moily says he wants Iranian oil imports near last fiscal year's rate of 260,000 barrels per day (bpd) - which he says would save $8.5 billion in foreign exchange and help curtail India's current account deficit - daily shipment rates are much lower than that. Industry sources also told Reuters there would likely be no great import resurgence despite the government putting together a new reinsurance package for refineries processing Iranian oil. India imported 151,000 bpd of Iranian crude in August versus 35,500 bpd in July, when only Essar Oil bought from Tehran, data compiled by Reuters from trade sources shows...Only two refiners - Essar Oil and state-owned Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemical Ltd - bought Iranian oil in August. MRPL, which used to be Iran's top Indian client, bought its first oil from the sanctions-hit nation since April, the data shows. MRPL resumed the imports after securing local reinsurance for claims up to 5 billion rupee ($79 million)." http://t.uani.com/18fCC5T

Reuters: "Iran plans to invest around 8.5 billion euros ($11.4 billion) in its aluminium industry as part of plans to nearly quadruple production by 2025, an official at mining group Imidro said on Thursday. Iran is the 20th largest producer of aluminium in the world, according to the Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organisation (Imidro), and needs the extra supplies to meet demand which is growing by 10 percent a year. Aluminium is a lightweight metal used widely in transport, packaging and construction. It can also be used to make tubes for uranium enrichment gas centrifuges... Geramishoar said higher prices for alumina imports have already contributed to a rise in the cost of aluminium production to over $2,000 a tonne... The United States tightened sanctions on raw and semi-processed materials, such as alumina, to Iran at the start of July this year as part of a campaign to target Iran's nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/16e1Rrw 

UN General Assembly

Free Beacon: "A former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations is calling on a prominent New York City hotel to deny accommodations Iranian President Hassan Rowhani and his political delegation, which will be in the city next week for the United Nations General Assembly meeting. Rowhani and a team of top Iranian diplomats will purportedly be lodging at the ONE U.N. hotel in downtown New York City, according to former U.N. Ambassador Mark Wallace, who currently serves as CEO of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), a watchdog group. It is inappropriate for the U.S. hotel to play host to a delegation that has denied the Holocaust, threatened to kill U.S. soldiers, and is secretly pursuing nuclear arms that would likely be used to strike America and Israel, Wallace and UANI wrote in a letter to the hotel's management. 'Certainly the ONE U.N. is aware that President Rowhani is the public face of a brutal regime that is a sworn enemy of the United States, and which is under strict sanctions by the U.S. government and the international community,' Wallace wrote to ONE U.N. General Manager Paul Wong and Wong Hong Ren, the CEO of Millennium & Copthorne Hotels." http://t.uani.com/1fhhdN3

Reuters: "U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Thursday commended efforts by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's government to engage with the international community and praised Tehran for releasing several prominent prisoners. Ban met with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif earlier on Thursday and said he plans to meet with Rouhani on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York next week. Rouhani is due to address the United Nations on Tuesday. Since Rouhani was elected president in June, the centrist cleric has called for 'constructive interaction' with the world, a dramatic shift in tone from the strident anti-Western rhetoric of his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 'I told Minister Zarif that I commend the efforts of the new government in Iran in promoting dialogue with the international community,' Ban told reporters. 'I'm going to meet President Rouhani next week ... (to) discuss all the matters of regional concern very closely.'" http://t.uani.com/1aYNmK2

Reuters: "France's president, Francois Hollande, said on Thursday he would meet Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly next week, the first meeting between presidents of the two countries since 2005. France has been a strong advocate of sanctions to pressure Iran over its nuclear program but has been cautious since Rouhani, a relative moderate, was elected earlier this year. Hollande said he had accepted an invitation to meet with the new Iranian leader. 'There is a plan to meet with the Iranian president at his request,' Hollande told reporters before leaving Bamako, where he was attending a ceremony to mark the swearing-in of Mali's new president." http://t.uani.com/15ad7US

AP: "Iran's only Jewish lawmaker said Thursday that he will be part of President Hasan Rouhani's delegation to the United Nations next week, a first for the Islamic Republic. Siamak Moreh Sedgh, who represents Iran's Jewish community in the country's parliament, told The Associated Press that he will accompany Rouhani on his visit to New York. Moreh Sedgh said he is just waiting for his U.S. visa. Moreh Sedgh, 48, has represented his community in parliament since 2012. This represents the first time the Iranian president will be accompanied by a Jewish lawmaker to the U.N." http://t.uani.com/18FMRTl 

Human Rights

IHR: "Two prisoners were hanged in Tonekabon (northern Iran) today Thursday September 19, reported Iranian state media. According to the Iranian state broadcasting one of the prisoners was hanged in the Shiroudi Square of Tonekabon while the other prisoner was hanged in the prison of Tonekabon located in Noshtaroud." http://t.uani.com/1gHJZEt

Opinion & Analysis

Ray Takeyh in LAT: "In an autumn ritual, an Iranian president is once more coming to New York for the United Nations' annual meeting of the heads of state. Media frenzy is likely to follow, as the smiling visage of President Hassan Rouhani dominates the airways next week. Beyond vague pledges of cooperation and lofty rhetoric about turning a new page, the question remains how to assess the intentions of the new Iranian government. The early indications are that Rouhani has put together a seasoned team that seeks to both advance and legitimize Iran's nuclear program. One of the peculiarities of the Islamic Republic is that at times it seemingly floats its strategies in the media. On Sept. 3, a long editorial titled 'A Realistic Initiative on the Nuclear Issue' appeared in Bahar, an Iranian newspaper with ties to the more moderate elements of the country's elite. The article stressed that former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's confrontational policies and reckless rhetoric had caused the international community to perceive Iran as threatening and dangerous. In that context, Iran's quest for nuclear empowerment was bound to be resisted by the great powers. And cleverly manipulated by the United States and Israel, the United Nations censured Iran and imposed debilitating sanctions on its fledgling economy. The editorial went on to say that to escape this predicament, Iran had to change its image. A state that is considered 'trustworthy' and 'accountable' is bound to be provided with some leeway. Iran can best achieve its nuclear aspirations not by making systematic concessions on the scope of its program but by altering the overall impression of its reliability as a state. It appears that Rouhani is carefully following this script. One of his first acts as president was to appoint as his foreign minister Javad Zarif, an urbane diplomat unwisely purged by Ahmadinejad. Zarif's superb skill as a negotiator, his easy access to Western power-brokers and his pragmatism are bound to impress Iran's skeptical interlocutors... The new government's soothing words have not lessened its determination to forge ahead with its nuclear program. Rouhani has stressed, as reported on state radio this month, that Iran 'will not withdraw an iota from the definite rights of people.' That message was reinforced by the appointment of Ali Shamkhani to the powerful position of secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Shamkhani is a creature of the security services, one of the founding members of the Revolutionary Guard and a former defense minister. Throughout his career, Shamkhani has been involved with the nation's nuclear program, procuring technologies for it and defending it. During his time as defense minister, he even subtly suggested the utility of nuclear arms in Iran's contested regional environment. 'We have neighbors who, due to international competition, have gained nuclear weapons.... We have no other alternatives but to defend ourselves in view of these developments,' Shamkhani said in 2000. If Zarif's appointment is designed to placate the international community, Shamkhani's selection is a signal to the hard-liners at home that Rouhani intends to preserve Iran's nuclear prerogatives. Rouhani's attempt to refashion Iran's image and temper its rhetoric should be welcomed. After eight years of Ahmadinejad provocations that often unhinged the international community, a degree of self-restraint is admirable. However, judge Tehran by its conduct and not its words. It is not enough for Rouhani to condemn the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Is he prepared to withdraw the Revolutionary Guard contingents that have done much to buttress Assad's brutality? It is not sufficient for Rouhani to speak of transparency; he must curb Iran's troublesome nuclear activities and comply with the U.N. Security Council resolutions. And it is not enough for Rouhani to speak of a tolerant society unless he is prepared to free his many former comrades and colleagues who are languishing in prisons under false charges. Rouhani's reliability has to be measured by his actions, not by his speeches or tweets." http://t.uani.com/18FPowP

Patrick Clawson in FP: "The moment of truth is coming. All the optics from Tehran -- even from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei -- indicate that Iran is gearing up for a new attempt at a nuclear deal. If a deal can't be made in the next few months, it's hard to see another opportunity when the chances would ever be this good again. If Iran's recent political history holds true, Rouhani has a unique window of opportunity to win sanctions relief. The last three Iranian presidents before him were able to influence policy in their first year before their powers faded. Each came into office with a strong agenda: Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's goal was economic liberalization; Mohammad Khatami aimed for a cultural opening, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad peddled a populist message. And all three were successful in making progress at the start of their terms -- though they all ran into strong resistance from the supreme leader as their tenure dragged on, which reversed their policies. Rouhani is even better placed than his predecessors to have real influence. He enjoys support from a broad swath of the Iranian political spectrum -- from hard-liners to reformists -- in no small part because of the lessons each camp is drawing from developments across the region. Hard-liners realize that the 'resistance policy' advocated by the previous team has not worked well. Resistance has brought Iran only more sanctions, led Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to the brink of disaster, and lost Hezbollah the broad public support it once commanded across the region. They see Rouhani's strategy as a new approach toward the same goals, and they are willing to give it a try... Rouhani's book, National Security and Nuclear Diplomacy -- which made the case that the deals negotiated with European powers in 2003 and 2004 preserved Iran's options while forestalling international pressure -- may serve as a blueprint for his current strategy. It would be a smart move by Khamenei -- indeed, smarter than his usual practice -- to send Rouhani out to see what kind of a nuclear deal he can get from the United States. From Khamenei's perspective, it's a win-win scenario: If his president can get a good deal which preserves Iran's nuclear options, fine. If no deal is reached, Iran will still have gained many months in which its nuclear program can progress." http://t.uani.com/19nAV3w

David Albright & Christina Walrond in ISIS: "President Hassan Rouhani in an important NBC Nightly News interview September 18, 2013 stated: 'We have never pursued or sought a nuclear bomb. We are not going to do so. We are solely seeking peaceful nuclear technology.'  Unfortunately, the available evidence provides little reason to believe him.  If President Rouhani wants the world to believe Iran will not build nuclear weapons in the future, the Iranian government should reconsider its blanket denials of ever seeking nuclear weapons in the past. As demonstrated by the South African experience, transparency regarding past nuclear weapons development is integral to solving the nonproliferation concerns related to the Iranian nuclear program and creating the level of confidence and cooperation necessary for the lifting of sanctions and t

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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