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Reuters:
"The biggest hurdle Iran and world powers must overcome to clinch a
lasting deal on Tehran's nuclear program by a July deadline is agreeing
on the future scope of uranium enrichment in the Islamic Republic,
officials and diplomats said on Thursday. An Iranian official said it
will be 'very difficult though not impossible' to bridge the divide.
Western officials said Iran and the six powers must agree not only on the
number and type of centrifuge machines Iran will operate but also the
level of enrichment and size of uranium stocks Tehran can accumulate. As
a result, diplomats said that enrichment has emerged as the principal
sticking point in negotiations on what U.S. officials say must be a
comprehensive agreement covering every issue under discussion if it is to
be acceptable to Washington... 'We need at least 100,000 IR-1 (first
generation) centrifuges to produce enough fuel for each of our (civilian)
nuclear (power) plants. We have informed the International Atomic Energy
Agency about our plans to build 20 plants,' a senior Iranian official
said on condition of anonymity. U.S. officials, however, have made clear
for months that the number of centrifuges they are willing to tolerate
operating in Iran over the medium term is in the low thousands to ensure that
Tehran's ability to produce a usable amount of bomb-grade uranium, should
it go down that road, is severely limited." http://t.uani.com/1nNU6zU
Reuters:
"The U.N. nuclear watchdog declined to say whether Iran had met a
deadline on Thursday for starting to address suspicions it may have
carried out atomic bomb research, adding to signs of limited progress so
far. Under a cooperation pact agreed between the two sides in November,
Iran was to implement seven transparency steps by May 15 to help allay international
concern about its disputed nuclear program, which the West fears may have
military ends. On the most sensitive of those - for Iran to provide
information about detonators that can, among other things, be used to set
off an atomic explosive device - diplomats have said the U.N. atomic
agency was seeking further clarification. How Iran responds to questions
about so-called Explosive Bridge Wire detonators is seen as a litmus test
of its readiness to begin cooperating with a long-stonewalled investigation
into what the U.N. agency calls the possible military dimensions (PMD) of
the country's nuclear program... U.S. officials say it is central for
Iran to resolve IAEA concerns for a successful outcome of the broader
diplomacy. But Iranian denials of any atomic bomb aspirations will make
it difficult for it to admit to any illicit work in the past." http://t.uani.com/1qFARu9
WSJ:
"Iran's oil exports fell in March having reached a 20-month peak two
months earlier, a global energy watchdog said on Thursday, potentially
easing concerns that Tehran could breach a six-month cap agreed with the
West in a broader deal over its nuclear program. In its monthly market
report, the International Energy Agency said that 'estimated April import
volumes [by foreign buyers of Iranian oil] were down by about 180,000
barrels a day to 1.11 million barrels a day.' The export numbers, which
include condensates, compared with 1.29 million barrels a day in March
and a 20-month peak of 1.58 million barrels a day in February, it said.
Condensates exports stood at around 230,000 barrels a day in April
compared with 150,000 barrels a day in March, the agency said. The IEA's
data confirmed statements by Iran's deputy oil minister for international
affairs Ali Majedi made to The Wall Street Journal last week that crude
exports-which exclude condensates-averaged 1.2 million barrels a day in
the past three months. That number-which excludes condensates-suggested a
reduction from February levels of 1.3 million barrels a day. In November,
Iran agreed to cap its crude exports-excluding condensates-to 1 million
barrels a day on a six-month average... On an average basis, Iran's oil
exports, however, have been higher this year. Iran's Oil Minister Bijan
Zanganeh said earlier Thursday that oil exports amounted to 1.5 million
barrels a day on average. That contrasts with a low of about 700,000
barrels a day in October, according to IEA estimates." http://t.uani.com/1jxAAQr
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
USA Today: "The emerging deal with Iran over its nuclear program is
unlikely to satisfy members of Congress who seek to end Iran's ability to
develop a nuclear weapon. U.S. diplomats met Wednesday in Vienna with
Iran and other world powers to begin writing the text of a final deal.
Though the sides remain far apart on several issues, the Obama
administration may allow an Iranian nuclear program that retains the
capabilities to produce a weapon." http://t.uani.com/1jiEd2l
Reuters: "U.N. watchdog findings that Iran may have worked on
designing an atomic bomb helped the West tighten sanctions on Tehran
which ultimately forced it, U.S. officials say, to enter serious talks on
reining in its nuclear program. But as Iran and six world powers enter a
crucial stage in their efforts to hammer out a long-term deal by late
July, the issue of how to handle suspicions that the Islamic Republic has
carried out nuclear weapon research could emerge as a serious stumbling
block. At issue is whether to press Iran to fully admit to any such
activity in the past - even if it complicates the search for a broader
deal to end the nuclear dispute - or whether to focus more on ensuring
that whatever happened then has since stopped." http://t.uani.com/1gri7dG
AP: "Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Wednesday
she was 'personally skeptical' that Iran would agree to a comprehensive
deal to remove its nuclear weapon capabilities but said the Obama
administration faced a promising opportunity that required it to 'give
diplomacy space to work.' Clinton told the American Jewish Committee that
American negotiators needed to be 'tough' and 'clear-eyed' as they conduct
nuclear talks but said the ongoing talks in Vienna between six world
powers and Iran represented an opportunity to reduce Iran's potential
nuclear weapons-making ability. The talks are being conducted ahead of a
July 20 target date for a deal. 'To get there we will have to be tough,
clear-eyed and ready to walk away and increase the pressure if need be.
No deal is better than a bad deal,' Clinton said, adding that any
agreement that endangers U.S. or Israeli national security should be
rejected. But Clinton called it a 'promising development and we need to
test it to see what can be achieved. This is a time to give diplomacy
space to work. If it does not, there will be opportunities to put in
place additional sanctions in the future.'" http://t.uani.com/1jxGX68
Sanctions
Relief
Reuters: "South Korea's crude imports from Iran doubled in April
from March, when the shipments dropped due to refinery maintenance, but
intake of the oil over the first four months remained near last year's
average, customs data showed on Thursday. South Korea imported 552,884
tonnes of Iranian crude last month, or 135,088 barrels per day (bpd),
compared with 274,808 tonnes a month ago and 507,821 tonnes a year ago,
according to the preliminary customs data. South Korea took 2.2 million
tonnes, or 135,982 bpd, in the first four months of this year from the
Islamic republic, down 8 percent from the same period in 2013 and
slightly more than the average 134,000 bpd for all of last year... In
South Korea, only SK Energy and Hyundai Oilbank of four refiners buy
Iranian oil. The country's Iran oil imports often swing widely month to
month as one of the two usually buys the crude only every other
month." http://t.uani.com/1ltFsYa
Free Beacon: "At least five companies with U.S. government contracts
were in Tehran last week to attend the Iran Oil Show, a several day
conference that enables international corporations to hobnob with top
Iranian officials and plan for a full return to Tehran's lucrative energy
market, according to an analysis of the 600 companies that attended the
oil expo. At least 20 of the companies in attendance at the oil show
maintain a U.S. presence or have contracts with the U.S. government,
eliciting concern from watchdog groups that these companies could be helping
Iran breach U.S. sanctions... Five of the companies that reportedly
attended the oil show currently have government contracts totaling
billions of dollars, according to an analysis. These contracts are with
the State Department, Department of Defense, Department of Homeland
Security, and Department of Commerce, among others... Siemens has
received more than $3 billion in government contracts with the Department
of Veteran Affairs, the Pentagon, and DHS, among others. Total has been
awarded more than $2 billion in contracts with the Pentagon, DHS, and the
Treasury Department. Other government contractors that attended the Iran
Oil Show include: the manufacturing firm Leoni, which has had around
$82,000 in government contracts; the industrial firm Nexans, which has
had more than $157,000 in contracts; and pump manufacturer Nikkiso, which
has had more than $118,000 in contracts." http://t.uani.com/1nNTbiS
Syria Conflict
Daily Beast: "Iran has been providing Syria's regime with
drones-some of them inspired by American technology-and they're already
playing a significant role in keeping Bashar Assad in power. On Sunday,
Tehran announced it had replicated a top-of-the-line U.S. drone it
claimed it captured in 2011, raising the possibility it will send still more
sophisticated aerial robots into the skies over Damascus... The first
evidence of Iranian drones in Syria appeared in early 2012, when
opposition activists released video showing a Pahpad AB-3. The drones
became known locally by the Arabic slang term wizwazi, and their presence
was usually a good indicator of imminent shelling or airstrikes. There
have since been numerous sightings of various models -- in December 2013,
the al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra shot down a small Yasir drone and
displayed the wreckage on social media... The Yasir shoot-down provided
solid evidence of advanced Iranian weaponry in Syria, as does recent
footage of an Iranian Shahed-129 over Damascus. Iran has armed drones in
its own arsenal, but so far only unarmed drones have appeared in Syria
and their main purpose appears to be reconnaissance." http://t.uani.com/1mXTYOw
Human Rights
IHR: "On Saturday May 11 four men and one woman were scheduled to be
hanged in the Rajaishahr prison of Karaj. They were all charged with
murder and sentenced to qisas (retribution). The four men were all
pardoned by the families of the victims. The woman was hanged in the
front of her two daughters' eyes... According to IHR's sources, the woman
was identified as Behjat (about 40 years old) and was convicted of
murdering her husband about 10 years ago." http://t.uani.com/1nNSJRz
AFP: "Inmates at Iran's Evin Prison were blindfolded and handcuffed
before being dragged and beaten by baton-wielding guards, Amnesty
International said in a report released Thursday. The international
rights monitor said the events of April 17 at the north Tehran jail,
described as 'Black Thursday' by local activists, represented an
'unwarranted use of force'. 'Security officials responded with an
appalling level of brutality to the protest at Evin prison, dragging them
along the floor and verbally insulting them,' said Said Boumedouha,
Amnesty's deputy director for the Middle East and North Africa. Amnesty
said its report, 'Justice is an Alien Word: ill treatment of political
prisoners in Evin Prison,' documented that dozens of inmates at the
jail's Section 350 were subjected to assault, beatings and other
ill-treatment." http://t.uani.com/1qFBP9K
ICHRI: "The use of Virtual Private Networks (VPN) by millions of
Iranians to circumvent strict state censorship of the Internet could
become a crime if a bill currently being discussed by the Iranian
Parliament becomes law... Iran's Cyber Police (FATA) chief Kamal
Hadianfar defended the censorship move with references to parental
concerns about the Internet and online crime, according to a Mehr
News on May 12, 2014. He expressed hope that the Judiciary would
soon declare VPNs illegal. Hadianfar did not provide details on the scope
of the bill. It is not clear what kind of VPN activity would be deemed
criminal, since it is widely used by private individuals, government
offices, and businesses, including banks. The bill on banning VPNs is
being reviewed by the Judicial Committee of the Iranian Parliament. If
approved, it would then be debated by the full chamber." http://t.uani.com/1gHK1wB
Opinion &
Analysis
David Albright & Bruno Tertrais in WSJ: "Iran's Atomic Energy
Organization announced late last month that it intends to compile a
'comprehensive document' listing all of the country's nuclear work. Yet
the announcement said nothing about the crucial question: whether Iran
has worked on nuclear weapons. Despite great expectations by its
negotiating partners-meeting again this week in Vienna-that Tehran would
clear up suspicions about its past and possibly current nuclear-weapons
development, Iran has so far clarified little. Alarm bells should be
going off in the West. The five permanent members of the U.N. Security
Council plus Germany-called P5+1-have been trying to negotiate a deal to
end sanctions against Iran in return for drastic reductions in its
nuclear program. A prerequisite for any final agreement is for Iran to
address nuclear-weapons questions raised by inspectors of the
International Atomic Energy Agency. If Iran is able to successfully evade
questions about a weapons program now, when biting sanctions on oil
exports and financial transactions are in place, why would it address
them later when these sanctions are lifted? What use will an agreement be
if Iran can hide a capacity to secretly build nuclear bombs? So far, the
P5+1 discussions have focused almost exclusively on Tehran's
uranium-enrichment and plutonium-production capabilities. This is a
mistake. Yes, Iran's ability to produce fissile material is of crucial
importance, but the world wouldn't be so concerned if Tehran had never
conducted activities aimed at building a nuclear weapon. Japan engages in
enrichment but nobody believes that its programs are suspicious. To be
credible, a final agreement must ensure that any effort by Tehran to
construct a bomb would be sufficiently time-consuming and detectable that
the international community could act decisively to prevent Iran from
succeeding. It is critical to know whether the Islamic Republic had a
nuclear-weapons program in the past, how far the work on warheads
advanced and whether it continues. Without clear answers to these
questions, outsiders will be unable to determine how fast the Iranian
regime could construct either a crude nuclear-test device or a
deliverable weapon if it chose to renege on an agreement... To ensure
that the Iranian regime doesn't benefit from running down the clock, the
U.S. and its European allies should make clear that no agreement is
possible unless Tehran addresses the IAEA's concerns. If Iran remains
unwilling, the message should be crisp: no further sanctions relief. If
non-cooperation continues, the P5+1 would be wise to start planning more
crippling sanctions well before the official January 2015 deadline for a
final agreement... Unless Iran takes seriously its obligations to the
IAEA to address concerns about past military-nuclear efforts, Tehran will
have established a powerful precedent of no-go zones for inspectors.
Tehran could declare a suspect site a military base and thus off-limits.
What better place to conduct clandestine, prohibited activities, such as
uranium enrichment and weaponization? Tehran would have also defeated a
central tenet of IAEA inspections: the need to determine both the
accuracy and completeness of a state's nuclear declaration. Other
countries contemplating the clandestine development of nuclear weapons
will certainly watch Tehran closely." http://t.uani.com/1ljeHXL
Michael Singh in WashPost: "Rouhani's purported weakness is
paradoxically a source of Iranian advantage in these negotiations. While
no political reformer, he is widely perceived as someone who is serious
about resolving the nuclear dispute so that Iran can recover
economically. U.S. and European observers hope that a nuclear deal could
lead to a broader easing of tensions - though whether this is true is
unclear - and conversely worry that failure to reach a deal could fatally
undermine that chance. Rouhani has correspondingly engendered sympathy
for his constraints. Indeed, a 'good deal' these days is often framed
more in terms of Rouhani's capacity to deliver than our own requirements.
Issues such as Syria and Iran's missile programs are often dismissed by
observers as off the table because they are in the purview not of Rouhani
but of the Revolutionary Guards, implying that we are negotiating not
with the Iranian regime but merely one faction of it. But softening our
nuclear demands in the hope of strengthening Rouhani would be a mistake,
for several reasons. First, a deal must satisfy not only U.S. negotiators
but skeptical partners who question the Rouhani narrative and are
unwilling to stake their security on it. The most important is Congress,
which may refuse to lift sanctions if it believes an agreement leaves
Iran with too great a residual nuclear capacity. The administration could
circumvent sanctions through waivers, but banks and others may hesitate
to resume business with Iran without regulatory clarity. The crisis would
remain unresolved, harming both Rouhani and the United States. To advance
U.S. interests in the Middle East, a deal should also be acceptable to
U.S. allies there, for whom Iran's regional activities - which have
continued apace under Rouhani - are of greater concern than its nuclear
pursuits. If they deem a deal too lenient, these allies could respond
both by confronting and accommodating Iran, perhaps simultaneously. They
could ramp up sectarian activities or pursue their own nuclear
capabilities, even as they cut side deals with Tehran inimical to U.S.
desires. Second, Rouhani may be eclipsed politically rather than
strengthened once a nuclear accord is reached. Iranian presidents' power
rarely lasts long, and Rouhani's utility to the regime - along with hopes
of an easing of U.S.-Iran tensions - may fade once sanctions relief is
obtained. Even if Rouhani hangs on, one should not mistake his desire to
ease Iran's isolation for an eagerness to turn westward. Iran will more
likely pursue partners it sees as rivals to the United States or as
non-aligned. In recent weeks, Iranian officials have endorsed Russia's
position on Ukraine, visited Beijing to pursue deeper military ties and
signed a transit agreement with India and Afghanistan as U.S. troops
prepare to withdraw from the latter. Combined with increased tensions in
traditional U.S. alliances as a result of a nuclear deal with Iran, the
effect could be a sharp blow to America's position. Thus, a weak
agreement could prove a strategic setback in the guise of a tactical
success. Any accord must be crafted to reassure skeptics and survive a
change of leadership or of course in Tehran. Rouhani's presence across
the table may make an agreement possible, but it should not dictate the
substance of the deal." http://t.uani.com/1ljowVE
Samir Nader: "Yahya Rahim Safavi, the former commander of Iran's
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the current military adviser
to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in May 2014, '[Iran's]
real borders are not what they appear, but extend to the shores of the
Mediterranean Sea in southern Lebanon.' His words triggered a storm of
criticism and questions in Lebanon and the Arab region for a variety of
reasons. First, Safavi's stance, which he expressed during a television
interview, clearly infringes on Lebanese sovereignty. No Iranian official
issued any statement to counter the stance despite the torrent of
criticism and an objection from Lebanese President Michel Suleiman. The
president requested the Lebanese Foreign Ministry seek a clarification
from the Iranian side. Making matters worse, instead of correcting or
denying the statement, a few days later, another former commander of the
IRGC, Hussein Hamdani, confirmed 'the formation of a Syrian Hezbollah,
after a Lebanese Hezbollah,' adding, 'Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is
fighting on behalf of Iran.' These statements, despite being grave, are
not new. They simply expressed openly what was being said about Iran's
expansionist intentions. But the statements raise several questions about
their timing and their blatant, provocative tone. These statements are
important because they were issued as the negotiations between Iran and the
United States are in high gear. Radical parties affiliated with the
supreme leader question the timing of the statements, and how they are
related to the US-Iran negotiations. What are their repercussions on the
Levant scenes, on elections in Iraq and Syria and on Lebanon's potential
presidential vacuum? These attitudes reveal Iran's intentions in the
negotiations and its regional project that runs from Tehran to the
Mediterranean, through Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, where all are waiting for
parliamentary election results. The Iraqi elections will determine the
shape and parameters of Iranian influence. It is likely that Iran is
showing its cards to negotiate over them as part of a grand bargain that
goes beyond the nuclear issue, as Iran has sought from the beginning. If
the door to bargaining outside the framework of the nuclear file is open,
it is all the more likely that one file be traded for another. We could
face a situation wherein Iran backs down in Syria and advances in Iraq or
Lebanon or vice versa... The statements by the former IRGC commanders
suggest that bargaining with the international community is wide open and
that Iran has a broad strategic scope that goes beyond its borders. In
Lebanon, holding a presidential election and avoiding a vacuum have
become requirements of the international group, as expressed on May 12 by
the special coordinator of the United Nations in Beirut, Derek Plumbly.
Thus, the Lebanese presidential election, after the Lebanese failed to
Lebanonize it, has become part of the negotiations with Iran. Since the
election is less important than other files, such as the situation in
Syria or Iraq, holding the election may become a bargaining chip, unless
it is recovered at the last minute." http://t.uani.com/1iP9lRk
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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