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Reuters:
"A sharp drop in the rial currency reveals heavy pressure on Iran's
economy as President Hassan Rouhani struggles to deliver higher living
standards and shore up domestic political support for a nuclear deal with
world powers. The rial's free market rate against the U.S. dollar sank to
33,000 this week, a fall of 9 percent from around 30,000 in early April,
according to Iranian currency trading websites... The official inflation
rate has come down to 32.5 percent from above 40 percent in mid-2013. The
economy seems to be emerging from recession; gross domestic product will
grow 1.5 percent this year after shrinking 5.6 percent in 2012 and 1.7
percent in 2013, the International Monetary Fund estimates. But the
rial's renewed weakness suggests those gains remain vulnerable and that
Rouhani faces major political and financial pressures as he tries to
reform economic policy and cut the influence of some of his conservative
enemies over the economy... Some traders and businessmen in Tehran and
Dubai speculate that Iran, its oil earnings slashed by Western sanctions,
may have run up against a fresh shortage of foreign currency." http://t.uani.com/1pWkdX2
JPost:
"A senior Obama administration official says the president is
prepared to consider 'a wide range of options' should negotiations with
Iran fail to reach a comprehensive agreement over its nuclear program.
'If talks break down, and if Iran is not negotiating in good faith, we
are prepared to work with Congress to impose more sanctions,' said Jake
Sullivan, the deputy assistant to the president, when asked by The
Jerusalem Post what the logic is behind revisiting sanctions policy
should diplomacy fail in Vienna... 'The logic behind that is that there
is an opportunity to continue to sharpen the choice for Iran: they can
either negotiate in good faith, and arrive at a resolution that resolves
the international community's concerns about their program, or they are
going to face mounting pressure,' Sullivan added. 'We've also made clear
that sanctions aren't the only tool available,' he said. 'As the
situation unfolds, we're prepared to consider a very wide range of
options.'" http://t.uani.com/1nammK1
Trend:
"Iran's struggling automotive industry has started to revive thanks
to suspended western sanctions on the country's carmakers. Iranian giant
car manufacturer Iran Khodro(IKCO) has produced some 18,900 sedans during
the first month of current Iranian calendar year, the company's
vice-president Mohsen Naghedi said, Iran's ISNA news agency reported on
May 2. The figure shows a 173 percent increase compared to the number of
produced cars in the same period of the preceding year which was about
6,900 sedans. However it is far away from the company's production goal
figures. The IKCO's goal is to reach an average production rate of 1,800
cars per day, according to the company's managing director Hashem Yekke
Zareh." http://t.uani.com/1rMbnXh
Sanctions Relief
Reuters: "Japanese refiner Idemitsu Kosan Co said it will buy either
no crude or a maximum of one cargo from Iran in the year through March
2015, a move that could keep at bay any potential U.S. pressure over oil
shipments from the Islamic republic. Idemitsu, Japan's third-largest refiner,
bought one cargo in the year through March this year, Taiji Hashidoko,
manager of Investor Relations Office, said on Friday at an earnings
briefing. He declined to reveal the volumes. One Middle East cargo is
usually around 600,000 barrels, and Idemitsu has cut its Iranian crude
volume for the year ended in March to around 2,000 barrels per day (bpd)
from less than 10,000 bpd a year earlier, an industry source familiar
with the matter said. '(Iran crude) accounts for less than 1 percent of
our firm's purchase of crude,' Hashidoko told reporters on the sidelines
of its earnings announcement for the just ended business year." http://t.uani.com/1i0ycp2
Sanctions
Enforcement & Impact
FT: "UK authorities have been probing past transactions between a
division of Anglo-Dutch publisher Reed Elsevier and Iranian banks, to
consider whether sanctions may have been breached. Reed Business
Information continued to provide services to banks in Iran after those
entities had been put on the HM Treasury sanctions list, according to
internal documents seen by the Financial Times. In one instance, the
company sold a database subscription to a bank a month after it was
placed on the list in 2008. Several other banks retained access to the
database for months after they were added to the list. Internal emails
from Reed Business Information show that its staff had advised several
banks on alternative ways to pay for their subscriptions and other
services because payments were rejected by the company's bank." http://t.uani.com/1n5lxos
Human Rights
RFE/RL: "A number of labor activists have been detained in the
Iranian capital as they gathered to observe International Workers' Day on
May 1. The activists were among dozens of workers who were aiming to
stage a protest outside the Labor Ministry and also at another location,
in western Tehran. Labor activist Davood Razavi told RFE/RL's Radio Farda
that some 23 protesters were detained. He said the crackdown demonstrates
the lack of tolerance of the Iranian government for even a small form of
dissent. 'The drivers wanted to distribute flowers and cookies,' said
Razavi in a telephone interview from Tehran." http://t.uani.com/1fVCqKw
AFP: "The Baha'i International Community on Thursday accused Iran of
excavating a cemetery where hundreds of its followers are buried, and
urged the Tehran government to halt the work. The grave site in the
southern city of Shiraz, some 710 kilometres (440 miles) south of Tehran,
has been used by Baha'is for decades. 'The excavation has begun and
graves are being destroyed. Some 40 to 50 trucks are lined up to remove
the earth and accelerate the work,' the Baha'i community said in a
statement seen by AFP. According to the community, the site was
confiscated by the Iranian government in 1983 and local officials are
seeking to build a 'cultural sports building' in its place. It added that
950 Baha'is are buried there... The Baha'i community says that between
2005 and 2012, at least 40 other Baha'i-owned cemeteries in Iran have
been desecrated, with bodies exhumed." http://t.uani.com/1n5jbG2
Domestic
Politics
AFP: "President Hassan Rouhani promised Thursday to improve labour
conditions for Iran's workers, particularly by increasing job security in
the ailing economy and banning gender discrimination. Ironically,
Rouhani's government had refused to issue a permit for workers to rally
in the capital to mark International Labour Day, as was the case with the
administration of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In live remarks
on state television, Rouhani said in Tehran that the government was
prioritising 'job security (as a foundation for) creating jobs... and
that it does not tolerate gender discrimination in the job market.'"
http://t.uani.com/1kvNHns
Opinion &
Analysis
Julian Borger in The Guardian: "'The early hours of July 21!' That
was the recent prediction of a European diplomat involved in the
multilateral, multi-stage talks with Iran over the country's nuclear
programme. The target date for a deal is July 20. The little joke
embedded in the diplomat's forecast was that past experience suggests
that the talks will go right down to the wire and then a few hours
beyond, as the sides jostle for last-gasp advantage, before concluding in
the middle of the night. But the more important message is that there is
growing optimism that the huge, sprawling compromises required,
considered fanciful not long ago, are perhaps within reach. As experts
from Iran and the six-nation negotiating group (US, UK, France, Germany,
China and Russia) convene in New York on Monday to chip away at the
unresolved issues, they do so in an increasingly upbeat atmosphere. What
has happened so far is that terms have been defined and initial positions
outlined. The really tough part begins on May 12 in Vienna when the lead
negotiators come together again to start drafting, searching for common
language. If they eventually succeed, it would represent arguably the
greatest diplomatic achievement of the twenty-first century so far,
breaking a long-running impasse that threatened for years to trigger
another disastrous war in the Middle East. Underlying the optimism is the
fact that both sides have stuck so far to the Joint Plan of Action agreed
in November. Iran has stopped producing medium enriched 20% uranium,
which had been the most immediate proliferation concern. Of its stockpile
of 209 kg at the time of the interim agreement, it says it has completed
the dilution of half to 5% low enriched uranium, and will convert the
remaining half to oxide (which is harder to further enrich to weapons grade)
in the next three months. Meanwhile, Tehran has confirmed that it has
received all the instalments of the $4.2 billion the country was promised
in sanctions relief. President Hassan Rouhani, has taken the political
capital gained by this windfall and reinvested it in the negotiating
process. He has accused his hardline critics of attacking the deal
because they profited from sanctions. It is a powerful argument not only
because it is well-founded; it also turns the populist sword against the
hardliners... Another reason to be cheerful: the issue that threatened to
be a deal-breaker just a few months ago now looks to be all but resolved.
The Iranians have signaled they are open to a redesign of the heavy water
reactor they are building in Arak, that would result in it producing less
weapons-usable plutonium in its spent fuel. The redesign could involve it
using enriched uranium rather than natural uranium or generating a lower
power output, or a bit of both. The important thing is both sides are
open to a technical compromise. What could possible go wrong? A lot,
obviously. This is a negotiation with an awful lot of moving parts. Iran
currently has 19,000 centrifuges. To satisfy western requirements that
the country would maintain at least a six-month breakout window (ie it
would take at least six months from kicking out nuclear inspectors and
starting the race to build a bomb until the completion of the first
warhead) Iran would have to reduce that total to 6,000 centrifuges or
less, according to the Institute for Science and International Security
(ISIS). That is a lot to give up without giving the appearance of having
been humiliated to an Iranian domestic audience. Such perceptions will be
key. Rouhani and Zarif must ensure that, even with constraints imposed by
a deal, the Iranian programme is seen to be dynamic and moving forward.
It is a symbol of national achievement and modernity. To do that, and at
the same time address the West's proliferation concerns, will require a
lot more heavy diplomatic lifting before that fateful night in
July." http://t.uani.com/1iGOfdd
Laura Rozen in Al-Monitor: "Israel increasingly expects that a
nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers will be reached, and has
raised concerns with U.S. interlocutors about monitoring and enforcement
of the deal, former American officials and Iran policy experts involved
in recent discussions with the Israelis tell Al-Monitor. While Israel's
official position remains that the only acceptable Iran nuclear deal
would be 'zero, zero, zero,' - meaning no centrifuges, domestic uranium
enrichment or plutonium, or the facilities to produce them-former
American officials and experts involved in recent consultations with the
Israelis detect that Israel's position on the matter has shifted as the
prospect of a deal being reached has increased. Israeli officials are now
focusing on concerns of what happens if a deal is reached, how can
monitoring and verification be sufficient to detect if there is a
violation, and how would such violations of an agreement be deterred or
punished, at a time when Israel assesses U.S. credibility as weakened on
the world stage, including because of events in Ukraine and Syria... 'But
two issues are going to be very hard to persuade the Israelis on,' the
former American diplomat continued. 'Monitoring: There is very little
belief anywhere in Israel that [a comprehensive nuclear] accord can be
monitored... that ensures there is not going to be clandestine activity,
and the Iranians [could] not break out' at some phase. 'That is a serious
concern,' the former US diplomat said. 'I don't want to minimize it,
because monitoring is going to be a huge problem. How long did we not
know about [aspects] of [Iran's] clandestine program,' such as Iran's
underground enrichment facility at Fordo, which Iran did not declare to
the IAEA until days before the U.S., UK and France publicly exposed it in
2009. The Israelis are also deeply concerned, the former US diplomat
said, that if there is a violation by Iran of a final nuclear accord,
that the violation will be seen by Washington as too ambiguous or
incremental, that there 'is no smoking gun.' The Israelis are 'nervous
that the U.S. will continuously say, we are checking into it, we need
more proof,' the former diplomat described. 'At what point does the
cumulative effect of the small things add up to a violation?' In
addition, the Israelis are concerned that the United States does not have
a sufficiently credible military threat to deter a future Iranian
violation of a comprehensive agreement, the Iran policy expert said.
'That is problematic from an Israeli perspective.' The Iran policy expert
said it was her group's assessment that while the Iran nuclear
negotiations are ongoing, there won't be a unilateral strike by Israel.
'While they are ongoing,' she repeated. There continues to be a lot of
'frustration' from the Israeli side that they will be 'profoundly
impacted' by a nuclear deal, even though they are not in the room for the
P5+1 talks with Iran, nor do they feel the U.S. was forthcoming with them
about secret US-Iran bilateral contacts leading up to the interim nuclear
deal last fall." http://t.uani.com/1kvOO6B
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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