Monday, October 20, 2014

Eye on Iran: Obama Sees An Iran Deal That Could Avoid Congress








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NYT: "No one knows if the Obama administration will manage in the next five weeks to strike what many in the White House consider the most important foreign policy deal of his presidency: an accord with Iran that would forestall its ability to make a nuclear weapon. But the White House has made one significant decision: If agreement is reached, President Obama will do everything in his power to avoid letting Congress vote on it. White House officials say Congress should not be surprised by this plan. They point to testimony earlier this year when top negotiators argued that the best way to assure that Iran complies with its obligations is a step-by-step suspension of sanctions - with the implicit understanding that the president could turn them back on as fast as he turned them off. But many members of Congress see the plan as an effort by the administration to freeze them out, a view shared by some Israeli officials who see a congressional vote as the best way to constrain the kind of deal that Mr. Obama might strike. http://t.uani.com/1wrfeyG

Reuters: "Iran has still not implemented all the nuclear transparency measures it had agreed to carry out by late August, the head of the U.N. atomic energy agency said on Monday, suggesting little headway in an inquiry into suspected bomb research. Western officials say Iran must cooperate more with United Nations nuclear sleuths if it wants to settle a protracted dispute with six world powers over its nuclear program and be rid of crippling financial sanctions. 'In order to resolve all outstanding issues, it is very important that Iran implements, in a timely manner, all practical measures agreed under the Framework for Cooperation,' Yukiya Amano said. That accord was reached with Tehran last year to help advance the long-running investigation. The IAEA has been trying for years to get to the bottom of Western intelligence reports suggesting Iran was designing a nuclear warhead. Iran say the intelligence was fabricated by its foes. But it has promised to work with the IAEA since last year. Tehran said last month the IAEA lacked 'substantiated' evidence. Diplomats say the United States and its Western allies as well as Israel have provided information on Iran to the IAEA." http://t.uani.com/1t2jtjd

WSJ: "Despite continued talk of progress in Iran's nuclear negotiations with six major powers, there remains a significant possibility a final deal will not be done by the Nov. 24 deadline, paving the way for an extension of the discussions .In Brussels, that is raising a question- Who will play the role of Catherine Ashton, the outgoing European Union foreign-policy chief who has chaired the six party group and played negotiating partner to Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif? The answer seems to be: Ms. Ashton.The British diplomat is due to step down from her Brussels post when a new EU executive takes over on Nov. 1. But the six power group - the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, Russia and China - reached an informal agreement in July when talks were extended, that Ms. Ashton would stay until Nov. 24. However, in recent weeks, as the possibility of a second extension of the talks has loomed, an understanding is forming that Ms. Ashton should stay on to see the job through, according to several people close to the talks". http://t.uani.com/1t3vcxO

   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Times of Israel: "Neither Iran nor six world powers are looking to extend talks on Tehran's nuclear program, a senior Iranian official said Sunday. Araqchi's statement constituted a turnaround from just over a week ago, when he was quoted by the semi-official Fars news agency as saying that an extension was under consideration and that it was 'possible.' However, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had said Friday that Tehran does not want to extend its nuclear talks with world powers. Negotiations between Iran and the six world powers (the US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany) are scheduled to resume on Wednesday with expert-level talks. The talks were already extended once earlier this year and reportedly remain stuck over the size and output of Iran's uranium enrichment program, a possible pathway to nuclear arms. Israel has lobbied against any deal that leaves Iran with the capacity to enrich uranium". http://t.uani.com/1yaIOYk

AFP: "Expert-level talks between Iran and world powers aimed at clearing the path toward a nuclear deal will be held Wednesday and Thursday in Vienna, a top Iranian official said. Iran and the P5+1 group of nations (Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States plus Germany) are seeking a comprehensive agreement over Tehran's nuclear programme by a November 24 deadline. However the talks have been hit by disputes over what limits should be placed on Iran's atomic activities, particularly its enrichment of uranium, and on the process of lifting US, UN and European sanctions. 'Negotiations between experts from Iran and the P5+1 will be held Wednesday and Thursday in Vienna,' Iranian negotiator and deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi was quoted as saying by the official IRNA news agency". http://t.uani.com/1yRQzpd

Sanctions Relief

LAT: "Iranian officials are expressing new worry over the global oil price slump, which is threatening the country's budget and could undermine its strategy in international nuclear negotiations .As recently as Tuesday, Iran's oil ministry was speaking confidently despite the 20% global price decline, insisting that it wouldn't affect the budget. Deputy Oil Minister Rokneddin  Javadi said the decrease would be 'short lived,' an oil ministry information service said. But Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, clearly concerned, has directed the oil ministry to seek a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel next month to discuss propping up the price, Iranian news agencies are reporting. Crude oil has fallen from over $100 a barrel in spring to under $85 a barrel. About 75% Iran's government revenues come from oil sales, and analysts say the country needs an oil price of around $140 a barrel to sustain its budget". http://t.uani.com/1vVmFPV

Reuters: "Indian refiners will pay $500 million to Iran next week, the second installment in an interim deal that allows Tehran to recover part of overseas frozen oil revenues that are payments for oil it has sold, two industry sources said in Friday.Iran and the United States, China, France, Germany, Britain and Russia agreed in July to extend a six-month interim accord until Nov. 24 after they failed to meet a July 20 deadline for reaching a long-term deal to end their nuclear dispute.' The process for the first installment of $400 million has been initiated and the second installment of $500 million will also be cleared next week,' said one of the sources.Payment of $900 million by India was to be made in September, the sources said. It was not immediately clear why the process has been delayed. Indian refiners together owe about $6 billion to Iran". http://t.uani.com/1yaLHsn

Reuters: "Years of economic sanctions and isolation have ravaged Iran's economy but created one of the last unexploited opportunities for international portfolio investors, who could start moving their money in this year if geopolitics permit. The Tehran Stock Exchange is 'the last, large untapped emerging market in the world', said Ramin Rabii, managing director of Turquoise Partners, a Tehran-based investment firm with around $200 million of assets under management. Talks between Iran and world powers in Vienna this week aim to reach a deal on Tehran's disputed nuclear program. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Monday agreement was 'certain', though not necessarily before a self-imposed Nov. 24 deadline. A deal would pave the way for the West to lift sanctions that have largely frozen Iran out of the global banking system, deterring the vast majority of foreign investors". http://t.uani.com/1wr9EfD

AP: "The number of foreigners visiting Iran jumped dramatically over the 12-month period ending in March, with 35 percent more tourists compared to the same period a year earlier, Iran's top tourism official said Saturday.Masoud Soltanifar said on state TV that the thriving industry could help boost Iran's economy out of recession and bring in much-needed hard currency. He said 4.5 million foreign tourists that came to the Islamic Republic over the period, bringing in some $6 billion in revenue. He attributed the increase to the 2013 election of President Hassan Rouhani, who has shifted away from the bombastic style adopted under his hard-line predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Rouhani, who has advocated for tourism, hopes it will boost the country's image". http://t.uani.com/1utIpwk

Human Rights

AFP: "A series of acid attacks on women in the historic Iranian city of Isfahan has raised fears and prompted rumours that the victims were targeted for not being properly veiled. Police have declined to comment on a motive but suspects have been arrested and an investigation is ongoing, General Hossein Ashtari was quoted as saying by the official IRNA news agency. He said four acid attacks had been reported in Isfahan, 450 kilometres (280 miles) south of Tehran, but he gave no other details". http://t.uani.com/1ptTgF1

AFP: "Award-winning Iranian human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh told AFP Sunday that she has been barred from practising for three years and will hold a protest against the decision this week.Sotoudeh was released from jail last year when halfway through a six-year sentence for 'actions against national security and committing propaganda against the regime'.She said the ban was a threat to the legal profession but she would not appeal. Instead, she will conduct a sit-down protest outside the Iran Bar Association's headquarters in Tehran, starting Tuesday.'The tribunal made this illegal decision at the demand of a court based at Evin Prison,' the Tehran jail where she served her sentence, Sotoudeh said by telephone". http://t.uani.com/1nwXSyw

Foreign Affairs

AP: "Iran said Sunday it is ready to provide aid to the Lebanese army as well as the Shiite Hezbollah group to help combat 'terrorists.' The promise of aid comes after Iran's regional rival Saudi Arabia pledged billions of dollars to Lebanon's armed forces, and will be seen by many Lebanese as part of a competition for influence over the tiny country, which is gripped by sectarian tensions and bitterly divided over the Syrian civil war. Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, was quoted by state TV as saying that 'supporting the Lebanese nation, army and resistance will still remain on Iran's agenda.' Hezbollah's allies refer to it as the "resistance" because of its stated mission of driving Israel out of occupied territory. 'Iran is ready to transfer its experience in order to improve security in Lebanon and the region, and to combat terrorists,' he said during a meeting with visiting Lebanese Defense Minister Samir Moqbel. Moqbel also met with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani". http://t.uani.com/1utA3Fe

NYT: "The Pakistan government summoned the Iranian ambassador Saturday to protest the killing of a Pakistani security official by Iranian border guards, an official said.'The Iranian ambassador was summoned, a protest was lodged and an investigation was demanded into the killing of our security official,' Tasnim Aslam, the spokeswoman for the Pakistani ministry of foreign affairs, said in an interview on Saturday. Tensions have been growing between the neighboring countries after recent allegations by Iranian officials that Sunni militants based in Baluchistan have been mounting strikes against bases and border posts inside Iranian territory. Pakistani officials have dismissed the allegations and have asked for evidence from Iran. http://t.uani.com/1zhU5KE

Bloomberg: "Iran's 'inherently sectarian' policy is undermining ties between the Islamic republic and Gulf Cooperation Council countries, said Anwar Gargash, the United Arab Emirates' minister of state for foreign affairs. Gargash, in a speech delivered today in Abu Dhabi, said Iran was interfering in the affairs of Arab countries including Bahrain, Yemen, Syria, Iraq and 'most recently and dramatically Yemen.' Yemen's Shiite Houthi rebels have seized key cities in the country as the authority of the GCC-backed central government crumbles. The Houthis took control of the crossing along Saudi Arabia's southern border this month. Shiite-ruled Iran supports the rebels' 'rightful fight,' Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said yesterday, according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency.  http://t.uani.com/1wjKspj

Opinion & Analysis

UANI Outreach Coordinator Bob Feferman in The Times of Israel: "Over the past years, the growing movement called BDS (Boycott, Divestment Sanctions) has made Israel its exclusive target. It has been a great puzzle for me to understand how the supporters of BDS who claim concern about peace and human rights have been silent when it comes to the tremendous pain and suffering caused by the government of Iran. If I had the opportunity, I would ask the supporters of BDS a few questions... supporters of BDS a few questions...Does it not trouble you that today there are 200,000 dead Syrians and millions of refugees for two reasons: Iran and its proxy Hezbollah? The massive support provided by Iran and Hezbollah to the brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad has somehow escaped the notice of supporters of BDS. Moreover, the horrific causes of so many of these deaths have also escaped their attention. Who is President Assad protecting himself from? Why aren't the supporters of BDS criticizing the Assad regime for its crimes against humanity? Their silence is more than troubling- it is shameful". http://t.uani.com/1t53odM

Israeli Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz in the New York Times: "Although Iran has modified its tone recently, there have hardly been any changes of substance since the soft-spoken president, Hassan Rouhani, took over the reins from his aggressive predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Neither administration has budged from the insistence that Iran should retain most of the 9,400 operational centrifuges it deploys to enrich uranium, as well as its nearly completed nuclear reactor in Arak, which could produce plutonium in the future. Barring a surprising change in Iran's negotiating stance, there is zero chance of reaching a satisfactory good deal before the Nov. 24 deadline. Choosing the 'no deal' option will very likely produce extra pressure - including some new sanctions - on Iran and, subsequently, might pave the way for a better deal in the near future. Standing our moral ground will transmit a clear message to the leaders in Tehran that the only way to escape mounting pressure will be through ultimately making the necessary significant compromises". http://t.uani.com/1t3tqwK

Howard Kurtz in Fox News: "Even in an era when media outlets sell access to their journalists at conferences and on cruises, a new promotion by the New York Times is truly troubling. The destination is Iran. Check out this corporate come-on by the Times: 'Journey 2,500 years back in time to discover the ancient secrets of Persia on this 13-day itinerary incorporating some of most well preserved archaeological sites in the world. Welcome to the once-forbidden land of Iran.' Wow. You'd never know that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, supports terrorism, poses a mortal threat to Israel, and has been hostile to the United States since its seizure of American hostages back in 1979. Wow. You'd never know that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, supports terrorism, poses a mortal threat to Israel, and has been hostile to the United States since its seizure of American hostages back in 1979." http://t.uani.com/1wepbNZ
   

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.





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