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NYT: "Only weeks into what was widely anticipated
to be a helter-skelter, post-sanctions rush of Western money and
expertise into Iran, limits to the country's opening are beginning to
emerge as the conservative leadership seeks to limit the reach of Western
influences. Behind the headlines announcing big business contracts with
European companies it is becoming increasingly clear that, so far, the
only deals being struck have been with the state-backed conglomerates. These
are the groups that dominate major industrial and commercial sectors of
the Iranian economy and are tightly controlled by pension funds and
investment companies linked to state organizations, like the
Revolutionary Guards. As a result, little or nothing is trickling down to
the lower levels of Iran's beleaguered but still enormous private sector.
'We have a conflict of interest with the government,' said Bahman Esghi,
the secretary general of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce. 'Because they
have outgrown all their competitors.' All the major international deals
signed in recent weeks have involved state or semistate-backed
industries. The national carrier, Iran Air, signed at deal to buy more
than 100 planes from Airbus. The Iranian Mines and Mining Industries
Development and Renovation Organization, one of the largest state
entities, started a $2 billion joint venture with an Italian steel
producer, Danieli. PSA Peugeot Citroën of France will invest $439 million
in carmaker Iran Khodro. But when smaller private businesses reach out to
their foreign counterparts the response they get is still: how will you
pay? Nuclear sanctions might be lifted but almost all international banks
continue to shy away from the Iranian market because of unilateral
American regulations that label Iran as a state sponsor of terror. 'We
are not getting any credit, inside or outside of the country, we can't
make transfers and the government has other priorities,' Mr. Esghi said.
Next week Mr. Esghi, the public face of the largest private business
ownership organization in the country, will be shutting down his own
business, a bus factory, and sending his remaining 14 employees home. The
reason, he said, is that there is no work and no prospect of any, even
after the lifting of sanctions. 'I'll be the unemployed secretary general
of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce,' he said. 'Ironic, isn't it?' ... Some
analysts say the state-backed conglomerates are the only entities able to
handle the $50 billion or so in annual investment that the country needs.
'Our bigger companies are our top priority,' said Amin Amanzadeh, a
financial reporter for several Iranian newspapers. 'They are the only
ones who can handle foreign investment. Also, if they improve the whole
economy will.' But critics of the quasi-socialist conglomerate system
dismiss such claims, saying it is notoriously corrupt and inefficient.
More likely, they say, the conservative leadership's overriding aim is to
keep Western influence in the economy and society to a minimum... One of the
few indicators of change visible to all, Iran's national currency, the
rial, has not moved since the lifting of the sanctions... The housing
market has stalled, as have land prices, a reflection some say of the
crash in the oil market." http://t.uani.com/1K2Ljqm
Reuters: "Iran must reform its laws that
allows girls as young as nine to be executed for crimes or forced into
sexual relations with older husbands, a United Nations watchdog said on
Thursday. Iran continues to execute children and youth who committed a
crime while under 18 years of age, in violation of international
standards, the U.N. Committee on the Rights of the Child said, after its
18 independent experts reviewed Iran and 13 other countries. 'The age of
criminal responsibility in Iran is discriminatory, it is lower and lower
for girls, that is to say 9 lunar years while for boys it is 15. At nine
a girl can marry, even if the law sets the age at 13,' said Hynd Ayoubi
Idrissi, a panel member. Nine lunar years in the Iranian calendar is equivalent
to 8 years and nine months, a U.N. spokeswoman said. The age for boys
having criminal responsibility is 15, but the age for girls at 9 is
'extremely low', Idrissi said. The experts deplored that Iran 'allows
sexual intercourse with girls as young as 9 lunar years and that other
forms of sexual abuse of even young children is not criminalized'. They
called for the age of sexual consent to be raised to 16. 'The Committee
is seriously concerned about the reports of increasing numbers of girls
at the age of 10 years or younger who are subjected to child and forced
marriages to much older men.'Girls suffered discrimination in the family,
in the criminal justice system, in property rights, and elsewhere, while
a legal obligation for girls to be subject to male guardianship is
'incompatible' Tehran's treaty obligations, the panel said." http://t.uani.com/1R9Ksp2
WSJ: "Japan signed an investment
treaty with Iran on Friday, joining China and others in a scramble for
business as sanctions on the Middle East's second-largest economy are
lifted. Iran has long been a major oil supplier for import-dependent
Japan. Now it is again a potential market for Japanese products,
including automobiles, aircraft and high-speed railways. The treaty will
set the terms for future investment and trade... China is among the
countries best-positioned to benefit from the lifting of sanctions against
Iran-both as a buyer of cheap Iranian oil and as a seller of much needed
infrastructure. While Beijing never officially recognized U.S. sanctions
against Tehran, many of its state-owned companies curbed trade with Iran
to avoid the risk of penalties from the U.S. Chinese leaders view Iran as
a key part of China's 'new Silk Road' vision. The initiative aims to
boost Chinese investment and trade from Central Asia to Europe, part of a
bid to export vast overcapacity in sectors like steel and to support jobs
at home in China. President Xi Jinping visited Tehran last month, signing
a series of economic cooperation agreements, including a deal to finance
construction of a high-speed railway. Mr. Xi's visit heightened a sense
of urgency in Tokyo... South Korea is also seeking to increase business
with Iran, and expects to sign a range of agreements following
ministerial-level meetings scheduled to be held in Tehran later this
month. Finance Minister Yoo Il-ho said last month that South Korea aims
to at least double exports to Iran in two years. Last year, its exports
to Iran totaled $3.76 billion, down by nearly half from $6.30 billion in
2012. South Korean officials and business leaders see opportunities in
areas such as automobiles, construction, steel and oil refineries.
Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp. are among the companies that say
they are seeking to resume partnerships or expand businesses in Iran.
Japanese businesses, many of which have a long history in Iran, hope to
revive operations there. Suzuki Motor Corp., Nippon Steel & Sumitomo
Metal Corp. and oil company Inpex Corp. are among those seeking
opportunities. 'Japan is already late to return to Iran, but there are
still countless opportunities,' Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of energy consultancy
FGE, told a packed room of officials from Japanese companies such as
electronics group Hitachi Inc. and auto maker Nissan Motor Co. on
Wednesday." http://t.uani.com/1mi6E3F
U.S.-Iran
Relations
The Hill: "A trio of hawkish House
Republicans say that they want to visit Iran later this month to observe
the country's elections, inspect its nuclear sites and meet with an
American held prisoner in the country. The lawmakers filed visa
applications with the office representing Iran in Washington on Thursday
and sent a letter asking for assistance from supreme leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei and the head of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps,
Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari. Reps. Mike Pompeo (R-Kan.), Lee Zeldin
(R-N.Y.) and Frank LoBiondo (R-N.J.) said that they wanted to ensure
Iran's compliance with the controversial nuclear deal that was
implemented earlier this year, which they opposed. 'Americans deserve
credible, first hand confirmation of what present day reality is in Iran,
regarding the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal, status of American
hostages and foreign policy objectives of Iranian leaders,' Zeldin said
in a statement. 'If Iran is truly a partner in peace, as President Obama
and Secretary [of State John] Kerry claim, then Iranian leaders should
have no problem granting our visas and arranging the requested agenda,'
added Pompeo. 'I look forward to receiving a timely response from Iran.'
... In their letter to Khamenei and Jafari, the three lawmakers said that
Iran's Feb. 26 parliamentary elections would be 'a historic occasion.'
'We look forward to seeing Iranian democracy in action,' they wrote,
apparently with tongues in cheeks." http://t.uani.com/1ocKwcx
Free
Beacon: "Sen.
John McCain (R., Ariz.) on Thursday lambasted the Obama administration's
Iran policy for humiliating the United States and increasing violence in
the region, focusing particularly on Iran's growing aggression after the
nuclear deal it struck with the U.S. and five other world powers.
Speaking on the Senate floor, McCain argued the president is disengaging
from the Middle East while tilting the regional balance of power in favor
of Iran at the expense of U.S. allies when greater American leadership is
required. 'This is another chapter in American history of humiliation, of
a failure of leadership,' said McCain, who serves as chairman of the
Senate Armed Services Committee. 'And all of that, of course, is no
better epitomized and symbolized than by what happened when the Iranians
captured two American vessels that happened to stray into their
territorial waters.' McCain was referring to the Jan. 12 incident when
the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) detained 10 American sailors
after their boats reportedly drifted into Iranian territorial waters. The
IRGC released pictures and video of the sailors being captured and forced
onto their knees with their hands up in the air, as well as of one of the
Americans apologizing to Iran for the sailors' actions... 'It is against
international law to take them [the American sailors] at gunpoint,'
McCain said emphatically. 'An incredible act of arrogance and humiliation
for our American sailors.' McCain then criticized the Obama
administration for thanking the Iranians for returning the sailors rather
than showing resolve. 'Let me just tell you what is really the most
aggravating thing about it is the response ... The response of the
administration was, and I'm not making this up, White House press
secretary Josh Earnest said the sailors were offered the proper courtesy
that you would expect,' he said. McCain then referenced Kerry's
expression of gratitude to the Iranians with anger before turning to Vice
President Joe Biden, saying that he described Iran's actions as 'standard
nautical practice.' 'What planet has the vice president of the United
States been on?' McCain asked." http://t.uani.com/1L3bbgz
Sanctions
Relief
Reuters: "Iran on Thursday called on the
United States to make a clear public pledge that it would not penalize
European banks for legitimate trade with the Islamic Republic. Many
foreign banks are cautious about resuming trade with Iran following
January's nuclear deal because they fear being caught up in ongoing U.S.
sanctions. 'Rebuilding the confidence of the banks that the United States
will not re-intervene in their relations with Iran may require some
further assurance from the United States,' Iranian Foreign Minister
Mohammad Javad Zarif said at Chatham House in London. 'We don't need any
more legalese - we need clear precise assurances that banks can do
business with Iran,' he said. 'I hope that is fast coming because if not
it would be a problem of implementation.' Although world powers lifted
many crippling sanctions against Iran in return for the country complying
with a deal to curb its nuclear ambitions, some restrictions remain in
place. Washington still prevents U.S. nationals, banks and insurers from
trading with Iran and also prohibits any trades with Iran in U.S. dollars
from being processed via the U.S. financial system. This is a significant
complication given the dollar's role as the world's main business
currency. European banks are also cautious - with some, including
Deutsche Bank, remembering past fines from U.S. regulators for breaking
sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1KuEhKW
Reuters: "Iran wants to recover tens of
billions of dollars it is owed by India and other buyers of its oil in
euros and is billing new crude sales in euros, too, looking to reduce its
dependence on the U.S. dollar following last month's sanctions relief. A
source at state-owned National Iranian Oil Co told Reuters that Iran will
charge in euros for its recently signed oil contracts with firms
including French oil and gas major Total, Spanish refiner Cepsa and
Litasco, the trading arm of Russia's Lukoil. 'In our invoices we mention
a clause that buyers of our oil will have to pay in euros, considering
the exchange rate versus the dollar around the time of delivery,' the
NIOC source said... Iran has also told its trading partners who owe it
billions of dollars that it wants to be paid in euros rather than U.S.
dollars, said the person, who has direct knowledge of the matter. Iran
was allowed to recover some of the funds frozen under U.S.-led sanctions
in currencies other than dollars, such as the Omani rial and UAE dhiram. Switching
oil sales to euros makes sense as Europe is now one of Iran's biggest
trading partners. 'Many European companies are rushing to Iran for
business opportunities, so it makes sense to have revenue in euros,' said
Robin Mills, chief executive of Dubai-based Qamar Energy... Indian
officials are working on a mechanism that could involve local banks
United Commercial Bank (UCO) and IDBI Bank for handling payments to Iran,
one Indian government source said." http://t.uani.com/20edjJv
Reuters: "Iran has been discussing
possible oil sales to top Russian oil producer Rosneft, Russian news
agencies quoted a top adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei as saying in Moscow on Thursday. 'I met the Russian Security
Council secretary the day before yesterday. (Igor) Sechin, the head of
Rosneft, was present at the meeting,' Ali Akbar Velayati was quoted as
saying by Interfax news agency. 'On the Iranian side, there is a
willingness to supply this company corresponding volumes of oil daily,'
he added." http://t.uani.com/1nM01HM
Reuters: "France's Vinci is looking at
opportunities to grow in concessions in Latin America and in oil and gas
and infrastructures in Iran, as it further expands abroad to counter weak
growth at home, its chief executive said on Friday. Europe's largest
construction and concessions company generated 42 percent of its 2015
sales abroad and was 'clearly on track' with its goal to lift that ratio
to 50 percent and more within a few years, Xavier Huillard told a news
conference... In Iran, where Vinci was lined up last week to design,
build and operate new terminals for two airports, the group was
discussing opportunities in oil and gas and holding preliminary talks to
build high-speed train stations in the country, Huillard said." http://t.uani.com/1QhJfHu
Reuters: "Gulf Petrochem, a
privately-held oil products trader, plans to cash in on Iran's return to
the oil markets by expanding storage terminals in the Middle East Gulf to
benefit from the expected increase in trade... Gulf Petrochem, which
mainly trades refined products and also has refining capacity, sees
opportunities for its Fujairah facilities on the east coast of the United
Arab Emirates (UAE) close to Iran, the company's group director S. Thangapandian
told Reuters. Iran's return to global oil markets after international
sanctions were lifted in January was a 'good thing,' he said in an
interview on Jan. 27. 'With lifting of sanctions, we can expect better
(Iranian) refinery throughput, better quality of product, and then more
competition in the region,' he said. Thangapandian sees a need for
increased storage in the Gulf to provide facilities for traders and
refiners to store and blend their products to meet the specifications of
the final end-users." http://t.uani.com/1PETYzI
Reuters: "Canada will not rush to lift
sanctions against Iran, despite calls to scrap the measures quickly so
Canadian companies can compete for contracts, Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau said on Thursday. Last week, Canada confirmed for the first time
that it is planning to lift sanctions against Tehran, and said companies
like aircraft maker Bombardier Inc should be allowed to export there...
Speaking to reporters in Calgary, where earlier in the day he met with
oil industry leaders, Trudeau said the deal had helped dampen Iran's
nuclear capabilities but there were still significant concerns around
what he called the country's state sponsorship of terrorism and abuse of
human rights. 'We're going to be very careful and thoughtful, working and
coordinating with our allies in the way that we move to reengage and lift
sanctions on Iran,' he said. 'We're going to be responsible about it. I
understand the need and interest in Canadian businesses ... to engage but
we're going to be doing it the right way because that's what Canadians
expect of us,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1K2IKV6
Guardian: "They say it brings a smile to
your face. Saffron, king of all spices, is Iran's red gold, and an ounce
of it is even more expensive in some western supermarkets than the
precious metal. The lifting of sanctions against the country in
mid-January is triggering a fresh demand worldwide as the spice is
exported to the US for the first time in 15 years... Between 80% and 90%
of the world's saffron comes from Iran, but banking and trade
restrictions meant Iranian companies faced huge challenges in exporting
it abroad, particularly to the US and Europe... Mohammad Javad Rezaie,
the head of Iran's saffron exports development fund, has said that the
first shipment will reach the US next week and predicted that the removal
of sanctions and direct trade with Europe will boost its exports by 40%
in the near future... 'Under sanctions, saffron exports fell down
significantly ... which made it very difficult to send or receive foreign
currency,' he said. 'We've had a request from the US and the first
shipment of saffron, weighed at 20kg, will be sent to the US for the
first time in 15 years.' ... Gholamreza Miri, the vice-president of
Iran's national saffron council, said on Tuesday that Iran has exported
$110m worth of saffron in the past 10 months in spite of sanctions, which
is 35% less than the same period last year, but he predicted the US sale
and lifting of sanctions will spark a boost. 'Because of sanctions, we
weren't able to export saffron to the US but now we can,' he said.
According to Iranian officials, Iran has produced a record 310 metric
tonnes of saffron this year so far, and a kilo has reached 72m rials
(£1,300). In 2014, Iran exported about 170 tonnes of saffron, worth
$244m, to a total of 53 countries." http://t.uani.com/1SPgLK4
Syria
Conflict
Reuters: "A high-ranking member of
Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and six Iranian Basij
militia volunteers have been killed in fighting in Syria, semi-official
Iranian media said on Friday... The semi-official news agency Tasnim said
IRGC Brigadier General Mohsen Ghajarian was killed in the northern Syrian
province of Aleppo, where there has been heavy fighting of late... 'Six
volunteer Basij members were martyred (killed) in Syria while fighting
against takfiris near Aleppo while defending Shi'ite holy shrines,'
Tasnim added... Iranian media have reported the death of over 100 members
of the IRGC and Basij, an affiliated volunteer militia, in the past few
months in Syria. Tasnim said public funerals would be held for the latest
Iranians killed in Syria." http://t.uani.com/1L3bloh
Human
Rights
AFP: "A growing number of young
girls are being forced to marry in Iran, UN rights experts warned
Thursday, decrying laws permitting sexual intercourse with girls as young
as nine. Following a review of the situation in Iran, the UN Committee on
the Rights of the Child (CRC) urged the country to 'repeal all legal
provisions that authorise, condone or lead to child sexual abuse.' The
committee, which is made up of 18 independent experts who monitor the
implementation of international children's rights treaties, said it was
'seriously concerned' over reports that child marriages in Iran were on
the rise. A growing number of 'girls at the age of 10 years or younger
... are subjected to child and forced marriages to much older men,' CRC
said. Compounding the problem were laws allowing sex with girls as young
as nine, and a lack of criminalisation for sexual abuse of even younger
children, it said. The committee also lamented a law obliging wives 'to
fulfil sexual needs of their husbands at all times,' which it stressed
'places child brides at risk of sexual violence, including marital rape.'
Stressing the devastating effects child marriage can have on the physical
and mental health of young girls, the experts called on Tehran to
introduce national laws clearly banning and criminalising the practice.
The committee also raised a range of other disturbing issues, including
the fact that boys in the country are considered criminally responsible
at the age of 15, and girls at nine. This means children down to those
ages can be subjected to 'sentences involving torture or cruel, degrading
treatment of punishment,' it said. Most distressing perhaps is that some
crimes committed as a minor in Iran are punishable by death, and that the
country occasionally executed children. 'A small number of children have
been executed in Iran,' committee member Bernard Gastaud told
reporters." http://t.uani.com/1PbcFcO
Reuters: "Many Iranian women and young
people are disillusioned about the upcoming elections, desperate for
reform but losing hope in their pragmatic president and his promise of a
freer society. Rouhani won the presidency in 2013, bolstered by the
support of many women and young people who were encouraged by his
comments that Iranians deserved to live in free country and have the
rights enjoyed by other people around the world. 'I am not going to make
the same mistake twice. I have decided not to vote,' said Setareh, a
university graduate in the northern city of Rasht. 'I voted for Rouhani -
was he able to improve my situation? No.' Rouhani's supporters hoped that
his election victory would lead to social change in country where women
have lesser rights than men in areas including inheritance, divorce and
child custody and are subject to travel and dress restrictions, and
strict Islamic law is enforced by a 'morality police'. But rights
campaigners say there has been little, if any, moves to bring about
greater political and cultural freedoms as the president has focused on
striking the nuclear accord wit world powers to end the international
sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy... 'I am not going to vote.
What is the use of voting? My hopes are shattered,' said a 27-year-old
engineer in Tehran, who refused to give his name... 'What will change if
I vote?' said Miriam, 26, who could not win custody of her eight-year-old
son after getting divorced in the central city of Isfahan. 'Can reformist
candidates give me equal rights?' ... Some pro-reform politicians have
told Reuters that by securing Khamenei's consent to the nuclear deal,
Rouhani depleted his political capital with the supreme leader, leaving
nothing for domestic reforms. 'Rouhani may want to create some changes
but he is by no means a political opposition figure to the clerical
establishment,' said a senior Western diplomat in Tehran. 'No matter
which political faction wins the majority in the parliament. The ultimate
power will remain in the hands of Mr. Khamenei.'" http://t.uani.com/1TIKxRt
IHR: "According to close sources,
two Baluchi prisoners were hanged to death at Yazd Central Prison on drug
related charges. The executions were reportedly carried out on Monday
February 1. According to the Baloch Activists Campaign, the names of the
prisoners are Khaled Kordi and Moslem Abarian. A relative of Khaled Kordi
confirms to Iran Human Rights that both prisoners were under the age of
18 at the time of their arrests. Iranian authorities carried out the
executions without informing the family members of the prisoners. The two
prisoners were reportedly riding a bus to work when they were arrested by
Iranian authorities for drug offenses. The relative tells IHR that he
believes Khaled and Moslem were innocent and the drugs were planted on
them by someone else on the bus. The UN Convention on the Rights of the
Child, which Iran is a signatory of, bans death sentences for offenses
committed under the age of 18." http://t.uani.com/1ocACHK
Opinion
& Analysis
Elias
Groll in FP:
"On the heels of Iraq's defeat in the 1991 Gulf War, inspectors with
the International Atomic Energy Agency returned to Baghdad with a mandate
from the U.N. Security Council to find and destroy the country's illicit
nuclear weapons program. What they found astonished them: Left unchecked,
Iraq had hoped to have a bomb by the end of the year. IAEA inspectors had
frequently visited Iraq throughout the 1980s, touring the country's
nuclear facilities and checking to see whether Baghdad's declarations to
the Vienna-based agency were complete. While some within the agency
harbored suspicions about Iraq's intentions, the IAEA failed to grasp the
true extent of Saddam Hussein's nuclear program. Iraq used a campaign of
deceit and deception to clandestinely acquire the tools, materials, and
knowledge necessary to construct a nuclear weapon. At the same time, IAEA
officials were invited for carefully choreographed visits to sites such
as the Tuwaitha research facility, a center for the weapons program. The
officials left thinking that Iraq was far from attaining a bomb - a
serious miscalculation that wasn't corrected until after the first Gulf
War. Today, the Iraq experience weighs heavily on the minds of the IAEA
officials charged with a new, even higher-stakes test: verifying that
neighboring Iran is living up to its commitments under a historic nuclear
deal inked last year. It's a task that grants the IAEA a central role in
determining the outcome of President Barack Obama's foreign policy
legacy. Moreover, the IAEA's ability to detect a clandestine Iranian
nuclear program - if Tehran decides to restart one - represents a crucial
variable in whether the Middle East will see yet another major war.
Hanging over the entire effort will be the agency's little-known failures
in Iraq. In the 1990s, agency inspectors found that Iraq had secretly
built industrial-scale uranium enrichment facilities and had made
significant progress on nuclear weapons designs. Iraqi nuclear engineers,
the IAEA found, had hoped to have a first weapon built by 1991. While
Israel had bombed the Osirak reactor in 1981, it did little to set back
the broader nuclear program. To eliminate Iraqi weapons of mass
destruction, the IAEA overhauled its policies and aggressively sought out
clandestine facilities. The agency used explosives to destroy more than 500,000
square feet of Iraqi facilities, shipped nuclear material out of the
country, and carted equipment back to its Vienna headquarters. By 2003,
when the United States invaded Iraq to eliminate its purported WMD
stocks, the agency could claim a bitter victory: It had fulfilled its
mission to eliminate them, but Saddam's ability to persuade the West that
he still possessed an active nuclear program prompted war all the same.
The soul-searching triggered by the terrifying discovery of Iraq's quest
for the bomb remains a touchstone for those charged with overseeing
Iran's nuclear program today. 'The tools that we had were not sufficient
to expose undeclared nuclear activities,' said Tero Varjoranta, the
deputy director general and head of the Department of Safeguards at the
IAEA. Since then, according to Varjoranta, the agency has embraced new
technologies like environmental sampling - capable of detecting minute
traces of nuclear material - and satellite imagery analysis to better
detect clandestine nuclear programs. It also has more power to do so,
courtesy of the 1997 Additional Protocols - which Iran has agreed to
abide by - allowing far more intrusive inspections. The IAEA argues it
has come a long way since the dark days of the 1990s. Among the modern technologies
now used by the IAEA are swabs, or environmental sampling, that can
detect the most minute traces of nuclear material, even in facilities
that have been scrubbed clean. The agency commissions large volumes of
satellite imagery to examine suspect sites. It uses advanced digital
camera technology that can remotely monitor nuclear facilities. Those
cameras are increasingly able to communicate with seals used to close
storage containers. When the seals are tampered with, the cameras switch
on and monitor the activity. The seals have become more advanced as well,
including models that use fiber optics to prevent tampering. A real-time
enrichment monitor clamps onto centrifuge systems to check enrichment
levels. In short, the agency has more tools than ever to ensure that Iran
is living up to its promises, but there's a catch: Iran gets to approve
which technologies the IAEA can use. The deal includes a provision that
the IAEA be allowed to use 'modern technologies,' but as with agency
inspections in other countries, Iran and the agency will have to work out
exactly what technology is deployed where... So far, Varjoranta says Iran
hasn't impeded his inspectors' work. 'At this point, we have the
technology on the ground that we need,' he said, adding, for example,
that Iran has allowed the use of the agency's next generation camera
surveillance system. Neither the most permissive nor the most strict in
making technology available to inspectors, 'Iran is in the middle of the
spectrum,' Varjoranta said. Crucially, he said, the nuclear deal mandates
that inspectors will be allowed to use real-time enrichment monitors to
ensure that Iran doesn't enrich uranium beyond 3.67 percent... The IAEA
now has a 24/7 presence of inspectors on the ground in Iran, but Varjoranta
won't say how many. The agency wants to keep the number vague, he said,
to be able to 'surge' inspectors into Iran and deter cheating. In total,
the IAEA will spend about 15 million euros annually to verify the deal,
Varjoranta said... The real challenge for the agency lies in the dual
task it has been handed in Iran: to not only verify that Iran is abiding
by the restrictions on its nuclear program, but also verify the absence
of any illicit nuclear program whatsoever. Olli Heinonen, a former IAEA official
and a senior fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International
Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, calls confirming the
absence of a secret program the agency's 'Achilles' heel.' According to
Heinonen, the difficult task of proving a negative such as this comes
down to close scrutiny of Iran's declarations, and whether its activities
on the ground match those declarations. Inspectors, he said, will seek
'coherent, consistent pictures' and seek out discrepancies. Concessions to
Iran have made this task harder, Heinonen argued. To get Iran to agree to
a deal, the P5+1 did not require Iran to provide historical information
on its nuclear activities. That information would have served as an
important baseline for inspectors to evaluate Iran's claims about its
current activities, Heinonen said. 'There is no 100 percent assurance,'
Heinonen said." http://t.uani.com/1nRVSmj
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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