Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Eye on Iran: Iran 'Foreign Legion' Leads Battle in Syria's North






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WSJ: "Hezbollah along with members of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard unit and thousands of Iran-funded and trained Shiite fighters from Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and elsewhere are leading the current ground assault in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo, pressing an offensive just before a cease-fire is supposed to take hold to allow for the delivery of humanitarian aid and the start of peace negotiations... Tehran's commitment to the cause is reflected in the deployment of the Shiite foreign fighters, and shows how intent it is to maintain the momentum that has allowed the regime, backed by Russian airstrikes, to reclaim swaths of territory from the rebels. 'These allies are together in the same command center, working, planning and coordinating their operations in the battlefield,' said a senior official in the Iran-Russia-Syrian regime military alliance. 'Retaking Aleppo will restore the regime's strength and control over Syria; toppling the regime is now a thing of the past.' ... The projection of power in northern Syria is the strongest signal by Shiite-led Iran that it intends both directly and via its Shiite proxies to bolster its reach and influence throughout the region. Already, Iran's rivals-Sunni-led Saudi Arabia and Turkey-have signaled they might get involved militarily to prevent Iran and Russia from crushing opposition rebels in and around Aleppo. Phillip Smyth, a researcher with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and expert on Shiite groups in Syria, said Iran has worked for decades to assemble and synthesize this network of proxies starting in the 1980s... 'Iran has now fully developed this foreign legion of sorts,' Mr. Smyth said. 'Saudis are left in the dust by this Iranian effort.' ... Mr. Smyth said the core of the Iran-led forces in Syria include several thousand Iranian fighters, up to 8,000 from Hezbollah, an estimated 6,000 Iraqis and about 3,500 Afghans... 'The alliance of Iran, Russia, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon is marching toward victory and the Americans must realize that the region's future will be decided by the Islamic Revolution's strength,' said Yahya Rahim-Safavi, a senior adviser to Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, during a ceremony on Thursday marking the 37th anniversary of the revolution that put the clergy at the helm of power." http://t.uani.com/1PQyZqg

Sputnik (Russia): "Iran plans to buy the Sukhoi Su-30SM fighters, the Mil Mi-8 and the Mil Mi-17 helicopters, as well as other weapons from Russia in an arms deal worth more than $8 billion, the Kommersant newspaper reported, citing unnamed sources. 'Tehran has already sent a list of military hardware that Iranian Armed Forces would like to purchase from Moscow,' the daily added, saying that the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Russian government and the Kremlin have already seen the list. The Iranians allegedly want to buy the Sukhoi Su-30SM multirole fighters, the Yakovlev Yak-130 advanced jet trainer and light attack aircraft, the Mil Mi-8 and Mil Mi-17 transport helicopters, as well as the K-300P Bastion-P mobile coastal defense missile systems, frigates and diesel-electric submarines. 'The addition of any Su-30 variant would greatly increase the capabilities of the Iranian air force, which is mostly equipped with an antiquated mix of American-, Russian- and Chinese-built hardware,' defense expert Dave Majumdar wrote for the National Interest." http://t.uani.com/1LtzgNK

Reuters: "An Airbus executive urged European banks on Tuesday to overcome their wariness about financing export projects to Iran because of U.S. sanctions, highlighting difficulties European companies face in their rush to Tehran. French banks, deterred by a $9 billion U.S. fine on BNP Paribas in 2014 for violating U.S. financial sanctions, have been reluctant to handle deals with Iran despite Iranian authorities urging them to return now the measures have been lifted. For companies like Airbus, which signed a deal to sell Iran 118 Airbus jets worth $27 billion after international sanctions were lifted against Tehran last month, that makes getting financing for such deals more complicated. European governments and their export credit agencies support a resumption in trade with Iran, said Nigel Taylor, senior vice-president for Customer, Project and Structured Finance at Airbus. 'With this blessing, I can't understand why we only see the back of banks at the moment. Don't be afraid!' he told a conference on export financing at the French Finance Ministry. However, the head of the French banking federation, Marie-Anne Barbat-Layani, also on the panel, said the U.S. legal framework regarding sanctions remained too uncertain for now. 'To be able to intervene, we banks need to have complete legal security and clarity,' she said. 'We're not there yet.' Senior French bankers have said the memory of BNP Paribas' fine remained too fresh and the current legal framework, with a possibility to snap sanctions back in place, was off-putting. Barbat-Layani also said European companies should make an effort and bill their sales in euros rather than U.S. dollars to avoid falling foul of the U.S. legal system. 'We need to develop euro-denominated financing, even if that's not enough,' she said." http://t.uani.com/1PQCkFM

Nuclear Program & Agreement

The Hill: "A new poll finds that just 3 in 10 Americans approve of the Obama administration's deal signed with Iran aimed at curbing the Islamic republic's nuclear program. Fifty-seven percent of Americans disapprove of the accord that relieves international sanctions in exchange for enhanced oversight, compared to 30 percent who approve, according to the Gallup survey released Wednesday. Republicans are much more opposed to the deal signed among Iran and six world powers, with just 9 percent supporting it and 80 percent opposed. A slim majority of Democrats approve of the deal negotiated by the Obama administration, with 51 percent saying they support it, compared to 38 percent who say they do not. Americans are also just as concerned about the threat of a nuclear Iran as they were before the deal went into effect. Seventy-five percent of respondents said Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon represents a critical threat to the U.S. over the next 10 years, compared to 77 percent who said the same last year before the July deal was finalized. Of Americans who said they view the threat posed by a nuclear Iran critically, only 23 percent support the deal. The poll also finds that Americans have a significantly negative view of Iran, with just 14 percent viewing the nation positively." http://t.uani.com/1QIDWRA

NYT: "In the early years of the Obama administration, the United States developed an elaborate plan for a cyberattack on Iran in case the diplomatic effort to limit its nuclear program failed and led to a military conflict, according to a coming documentary film and interviews with military and intelligence officials involved in the effort. The plan, code-named Nitro Zeus, was devised to disable Iran's air defenses, communications systems and crucial parts of its power grid, and was shelved, at least for the foreseeable future, after the nuclear deal struck between Iran and six other nations last summer was fulfilled. Nitro Zeus was part of an effort to assure President Obama that he had alternatives, short of a full-scale war, if Iran lashed out at the United States or its allies in the region. At its height, officials say, the planning for Nitro Zeus involved thousands of American military and intelligence personnel, spending tens of millions of dollars and placing electronic implants in Iranian computer networks to 'prepare the battlefield,' in the parlance of the Pentagon. The United States military develops contingency plans for all kinds of possible conflicts, such as a North Korean attack on the South, loose nuclear weapons in South Asia or uprisings in Africa or Latin America. Most sit on the shelf, and are updated every few years. But this one took on far greater urgency, in part because White House officials believed there was a good chance that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel would decide to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, and the United States would be drawn into the hostilities that followed. While the Pentagon was making those preparations, American intelligence agencies developed a separate, far more narrowly focused cyberplan to disable the Fordo nuclear enrichment site, which Iran built deep inside a mountain near the city of Qum. The attack would have been a covert operation, which the president can authorize even in the absence of a continuing conflict." http://t.uani.com/1TqHz4T

U.S.-Iran Relations

NYT: "Three Americans who were kidnapped from a Baghdad apartment by Shiite militiamen last month were released unharmed on Tuesday after the Iraqi authorities negotiated their freedom, State Department officials confirmed. After showers, medical checkups and a meal at the American Embassy, they were quickly put on a plane out of the country. The exact circumstances of their release were not immediately clear, including whether any money was paid or prisoners were released in exchange... As Iraq's security has deteriorated in recent years, with the extremists of the Islamic State seizing territories in the north and west, there has been a rise in abductions in Baghdad. Officials have said the Shiite militias that rose to defend the capital were to blame. Many of these groups are backed by Iran and operate largely beyond the control of the central government. The three Americans were abducted around the time of a prisoner exchange between the United States and Iran, which included the release of Jason Rezaian, the Tehran bureau chief of The Washington Post... American officials believe the kidnappers were affiliated with a militia supported by Iran." http://t.uani.com/24a6Dkg

IranWire: "The day that news broke that there had been a prisoner exchange between Iran and the United States, it was assumed that Siamak Namazi would be among those released, along with Jason Rezaian, Saeed Abedini and Amir Hekmati. Iran's official news outlet, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) even reported that he was among those freed. But a few hours after the announcement, IRNA withdrew its statement and announced that Nosratollah Khosravi  - a name unknown to the media and the public - had been the fourth prisoner to be freed. Siamak Namazi remained behind bars. The Iranian-American head of strategic planning for Crescent Petroleum in the United Arab Emirates was arrested in mid-October 2015 in Tehran during a trip to visit his family... Mahmoud Alizadeh Tabatabaei is Siamak Namazi's lawyer. I talked to him about the case." http://t.uani.com/1mHopcA

Sanctions Enforcement

State Net Capitol Journal: "While the United States and other world powers have lifted oil and financial sanctions on Iran, several states continue to adhere to their own bans on investing or doing business with companies with ties to the country. Although international inspectors determined in January that Iran has curtailed its nuclear program, it appears unlikely there will be any significant move toward backing away from those state-imposed sanctions. Rhetoric surrounding the issue in fact suggests the opposite - that more states may consider enacting new sanctions as a show of objection to the international agreement. More than 20 states have laws preventing state pension funds from investing in companies that do business with at least some part of the Iranian economy. A few others have institutional policies in place that also prevent such investments, according to the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), which pushes for the divestment laws... And more than 10 states either prohibit state government agencies, local government agencies or both from contracting with companies that trade with Iran... 'Most state legislatures are Republican and seem to oppose the Iran deal and the president's move,' noted Matan Shamir, executive director of United Against Nuclear Iran, which was behind model legislation to prohibit state dealings with companies with Iranian ties... UANI's Shamir said that regardless of the new nuclear deal, Iran should still be sanctioned. 'They are still a state sponsor of terrorism,' he said. That is legally part of the consideration in some states. The Florida and California laws, for example, are both based on Iran's presence on a U.S. State Department list of 'State Sponsors of Terrorism.' Iran has been on the list since 1984... Shamir said it doesn't seem likely that the federal government would go beyond the 'urging' that Kerry mentioned, and actually move to pre-empt any of the state laws. 'That would be a political hot potato,' Shamir said. 'It would create such a big fight, there'd be so much push back from the states, and from Congress as well.'" http://t.uani.com/1Syq2HU

Sanctions Relief

Reuters: "Global transaction network SWIFT has reconnected a number of Iranian banks to its system, allowing them to resume cross-border transactions with foreign banks after the lifting of sanctions on Tehran, a SWIFT official said. Iranian banks were disconnected from Belgium-based SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, in March 2012 as international sanctions against Tehran over its disputed nuclear program tightened. The system is used to transmit payments and letters of credit and Iran's exclusion severely damaged its ability to conduct foreign trade and money transfers... 'SWIFT has completed the on-boarding process for these banks, and can confirm that they have now been reconnected to SWIFT,' said Onur Ozan, a country manager at SWIFT. 'We will continue to work with the remainder of the entities that have applied to rejoin SWIFT to ensure their smooth reconnection,' Ozan said in a statement carried on the Iranian central bank's website on Wednesday. A representative for SWIFT confirmed that the statement was accurate." http://t.uani.com/1opZ1dr

Reuters: "Brazil will accept payment from Iran in euros and other currencies for planes, cars and machinery to sidestep lingering U.S. sanctions on the oil-rich nation, Trade Minister Armando Monteiro told Reuters on Tuesday. Monteiro is the first Brazilian official to confirm that Latin America's biggest economy could accept payment in currencies including the euro from Iran, which is forbidden from using the U.S. financial system under the sanctions. Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff could visit Iran this year to bolster exports, he said. 'Everyone is racing after Iran now ... The trade potential is very big,' said Monteiro. 'We will find ways to settle payments, the type of payment and currency.' ... Monteiro said Brazil aims to triple trade flows with Iran to $5 billion by 2019... The Iranian government has already contacted Brazilian planemaker Embraer for the purchase of commercial jets for regional aviation, Monteiro said. Embraer, the world's No. 3 commercial plane maker, confirmed that Iran was interested in its aircraft. The Islamic republic is eyeing the four models of Embraer's E1 family of regional jets, because of their low maintenance costs, said an official spokesman for the company." http://t.uani.com/1TqCM3o

Terrorism

Al-Monitor: "A frequently asked question in Lebanon has been how the Iranian nuclear agreement might affect Iran's ties with Hezbollah. But party officials and independent Lebanese observers paint a picture of an unbreakable bond between the two. They believe the geopolitical dynamics taking shape in the region and beyond, now that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is being implemented, further strengthen Hezbollah. Anyone who thinks Iran's return to the national stage will decrease its support for Hezbollah 'doesn't know how Iran thinks,' a Hezbollah official told Al-Monitor, noting that the group is widely considered to be Tehran's staunchest ally. Speaking from his office in Dahiyeh in southern Beirut, an area commonly referred to as Hezbollah's stronghold, the official, who asked not to be named, underscored that 'Hezbollah is more than just an ally for Iran.' The relationship is similar to 'that between father and son,' he said, going on to emphasize the ideological factor by saying that any success for Iran means success for Hezbollah and for the velayat e-faqih... A similar view is echoed by experts in the field. 'In Iran, it is the state that serves the revolution, and Hezbollah lies at the heart of this revolution,' Hussam Matar, an independent Lebanese scholar on international affairs who is close to Hezbollah, told Al-Monitor." http://t.uani.com/1QIGWNS

Human Rights

HRW: "Iranian authorities' decision to prevent women from attending an international beach volleyball tournament this week, despite prior assurances, is a disappointing step backwards for women's equal access to attend public sporting events. Iran is hosting the first men's beach volleyball tournament in Iran, on Kish Island, from February 15 to 19, 2016. Although an official 2012 ban prohibits Iranian women from attending volleyball matches, the International Volleyball Federation (FIVB) announced on February 7, 2016, that it received assurances from organizers of the Kish Island Open that, 'the event will be open to fans from all age groups and genders. This will include families and women.' ... 'Brave Iranian women who took the FIVB at its word were turned away at the turnstiles this week. That is a black eye for the sport of volleyball, and a setback for women's rights in Iran,' said Minky Worden, director of global initiatives. 'This sorry episode highlights the shortcomings of the FIVB's strategy with the Iranian government, and contradicts their claims that all Iranian fans are welcome.'" http://t.uani.com/1SycL1Q

ICHRI: "An Iranian activist imprisoned for his social media activity has gone on a wet hunger strike to protest the Judiciary's rejection of his request for conditional release. Amir Golestani, 35, was sentenced to seven years in prison with a group of other social media activists in April 2015 for 'assembly and collusion against national security' and 'insulting the sacred.' At the time of his arrest in 2013, Golestani was the administrator of a Facebook page called Zendegi-e Sagi (Living Like a Dog), where he had posted comments that were critical of social and political issues in Iran. Golestani and a group of prisoners became eligible for a conditional release from supreme leader Ali Khamenei in May 2015, 'but eight months later [the Judiciary] disregarded the process of commuting his sentence,' a source close to the Golestani family told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran... Golestani was arrested on August 20, 2013 by Iran's Revolutionary Guards Intelligence Organization at his workplace in Babolsar, located about 140 miles north of Tehran." http://t.uani.com/1LtuboR

Journalism Is Not a Crime: "If Telegram does not follow the Iranian authorities' demands, the app will be 'removed', said Mohammad Reza Aghamiri, a conservative politician and member of Iran's Filtering Committee, on February 15. In an interview with Iran's semi-official Fars news agency, Aghamiri said that the Filtering Committee has demanded that Telegram transfer its servers to Iran. Failure to do so could have fatal consequences for the popular messaging app. 'If Telegram does not comply with Iran's demands, it will be removed, not blocked,' Aghamiri said. It is not clear exactly what Aghamiri meant by 'removed', but the wording could suggest that the authorities are planning to use other tools apart from traditional filtering to limit Iranians' access to Telegram. Many social networking platforms, including Twitter and Facebook, are already blocked in Iran. However, blocking content is politically costly, and it is often ineffective, as many Iranians bypass the firewall with VPNs and circumvention tools. So instead of directly blocking platforms such as Telegram, the Iranian authorities can choose to reduce internet speeds to make it more difficult for its many users to access and use the app properly. The Filtering Commitee has according to Fars news agency also requested that Telegram cooperate with Iran's cyber police. 'Telegram is very popular in Iran, which is why it can't continue like this. Telegram must follow our rules; then we'll allow it to be active in Iran,' Aghamiri said, and added that if Telegram ignores the demands, the committee will make sure the app 'won't be able to compete with other social media.'" http://t.uani.com/1KWmdcQ

Opinion & Analysis

Senator Chris Coons in The Guardian: "In a testament to the power of multilateral diplomacy and the enduring strength of the transatlantic alliance, the international community came together last summer to craft a complex agreement to restrain Iran's nuclear ambitions. As the Iran deal moves forward, I recognize that European companies will pursue business opportunities there. But I urge these companies to keep in mind three important points. First, US and UN sanctions against Iran for its human rights abuses, ballistic missile program and support for terrorism remain on the books, and the United States continues to enforce them. Second, preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon must remain a higher priority than pursuing commercial opportunities. The United States will continue to rely on the stated shared commitments from our European partners to deal with Iran in the same way. This brings me to my third point: Iran remains a revolutionary regime, and companies eager to do business with Iran and its state-owned enterprises must proceed with the utmost caution. While every business deal with Iran is not inherently dangerous, I'm increasingly concerned that in some quarters, the nuclear agreement is viewed less as a matter of keeping Iran from building a nuclear weapon, and more as a business opportunity. The headlines in recent weeks have been startling... To be certain, the lifting of crippling economic sanctions that brought Iran's economy to a standstill over the past several years was the primary incentive for Iran to agree to the nuclear deal in the first place. Still, the willingness of a number of nations to economically embrace the Iranian regime must not keep us from enforcing Iran's important commitments to limit its nuclear program. America alone could not have forced Iran to the negotiating table and pressured it to agree to the terms of the nuclear deal. That required an international commitment, and we're grateful for the partnership of our allies in Europe. As we move forward, let us do so cautiously and wary of the potential need to reinstate sanctions should Iran violate the terms of the agreement. The mechanism by which sanctions can 'snap back' into place under the nuclear agreement is clear: if any of the signatories of the agreement have any reason to believe that another party is not upholding its commitments under the agreement, that party can refer the issue to a joint commission for resolution and seek to reimpose full or partial sanctions. Iran will continue to seek economic relief and test our willingness to enforce the terms of the nuclear agreement. In the months to come, I encourage the permanent members of the UN security council, Germany and the European Union to acknowledge that certain sanctions remain in place, and importantly, I ask that we restate publicly our shared commitments to put national security before economic interests... We must all remember that the most important contract with Iran is the one we've already signed: the nuclear agreement. Until we can enforce that contract, we must not rush to sign new ones that put the effectiveness of the first one in jeopardy." http://t.uani.com/1op6vN0

Dave Majumdar in TNI: "Iran looks set to sign a deal to purchase Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30 Flanker fighters as it upgrades its military forces following the nuclear deal, which cleared the way for sanctions to be lifted on Tehran. Iranian defense minister Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehghan is set to visit Moscow on February 16 to discuss the potential fighter buy, as well as to discuss deliveries of the Almaz-Antey S-300 air and missile defense system. 'Minister Dehgan will also discuss the delivery of Su-30 airplanes because the Defense Ministry believes the Iranian Air Force needs this type of plane. We've moved far in these discussions of purchases and I think that during the upcoming visit a contract will be signed,' an Iranian defense ministry source told the Russian state-run media outlet Sputnik. Earlier, the Iranian Mehr News Agency had quoted Dehghan-who appeared on Iranian state TV-saying that Tehran needs to focus on modernizing its air force. To that end, Dehghan specifically cited the Su-30-but he did not indicate which version of Russian-built jet Tehran is interested in. 'Today we need to pay attention to air force and aircraft and we seek to seal a deal with the Russians upon which we will have partnership in the construction and manufacturing of the jet fighter,' Dehghan said. Presumably Iran would want one of the advanced variants similar to the aircraft operated by India, Malaysia, Algeria and Russia itself. However, it is also possible that Iran could opt for a variant of the more basic Su-30M2, which is also in service with the Russian Air Force. That variant is somewhat less expensive, which might make more sense considering Iran's economic situation. Perhaps of note, Iran does not seem content with merely buying the Su-30; Tehran seems intent on license production of the aircraft. The Su-30M2 variant, which is built in Komsomolsk-on-Amur in Russia's far east, is missing the Su-30SM's canards and thrust vectoring nozzles. It also has a less comprehensive avionics suite. Either way, the addition of any Su-30 variant would greatly increase the capabilities of the Iranian air force, which is mostly equipped with an antiquated mix of American-, Russian- and Chinese-built hardware." http://t.uani.com/1KpRmFJ
       

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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