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AP: "A State Department official told lawmakers
Thursday he was unsure of the precise location of tons of low-enriched
uranium shipped out of Iran on a Russian vessel as part of the landmark
nuclear agreement. Ambassador Stephen Mull, the lead U.S. official
overseeing the deal's implementation, said during testimony before the
House Foreign Affairs Committee that the stockpile is a Russian custody
issue. He said the U.S. is confident the material will be controlled
properly. 'We obviously have had many differences for many years with
Russia,' Mull said. 'But one of the features of our relationship is
pretty close cooperation and protection of nuclear material.' Following
the hearing, a senior administration official said the Iranian stockpile
is in Russia, where it will be stored in a secure place, but did not
specify where... Russia is a close ally of Iran, said Smith, who added
that's he unaware of a requirement in the nuclear agreement that requires
Russia to declare where the material will be stored and how it will be
safeguarded." http://t.uani.com/1oaa0Y6
RFE/RL: "The capture of 10 U.S. sailors
by Iranian forces last month was reenacted at rallies in Iran celebrating
the anniversary of the country's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Images
published by Iranian news agencies and shared on social media show actors
in fatigue pants walking in the streets, some with their hands tied and
with chains around their necks. In images from a rally on February 11 in
the city of Qom, a man wearing red lipstick is apparently posing as the
female U.S. sailor who was among those detained by the Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on January 12 after mistakenly straying
into Iranian territorial waters. A similar scene played out in the
Iranian capital, Tehran." http://t.uani.com/1Rw84Vl
AP: "Iran says it is cracking down
on Valentine's Day celebrations and shops engaging in them will be guilty
of a crime. Iranian news outlets reported the police directive Friday
warning retailers against promoting 'decadent Western culture through
Valentine's Day rituals.' Police informed Tehran's coffee and ice cream
shops trade union to avoid any gatherings in which boys and girls
exchange Valentine's Day gifts." http://t.uani.com/1oxdvIb
Nuclear
Program & Agreement
Free
Beacon: "During
a hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Chris Smith (R.,
N.J.) questioned the Coordinator for Iran Nuclear Implementation,
Ambassador Stephen Mull, over where the enriched uranium that was to be
removed from Iran has gone. After Rep. Smith initially asked where the
uranium was, Mull responded that he was not sure but that it was either
in Russia or on a ship bound for Russia. 'Where did it go? It's gotta be
somewhere,' Smith said. 'It's on a Russian ship, in Russian custody,
under Russian control,' Mull said. 'It's actually on a ship right now?'
Smith said. 'I believe if it has not arrived yet, it will very soon and
it will be kept within controlled Russian facilities,' Mull said. Smith
expressed concern that Iran's nuclear material was being handled without
U.S. oversight by a close ally of Iran, Russia. 'But again, we're then
trusting the Russians to say they have it under their purview, they're
watching it. I mean they're so close to Iran, they have double-dealed us
and especially in the Middle East, the Syrians, I don't know why we would
trust them,' Smith said, 'Could you tell us where it's going? I mean,
that's important.'" http://t.uani.com/1oadIRw
Congressional
Action
RFE/RL: "Mull and John Smith, acting
director of the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control,
testified at the first senior-level congressional hearing held on the
nuclear deal since it was implemented on January 16. Lawmakers questioned
the two officials over Iran's ballistic-missile program, its support for
terrorism, and help for its regional ally, Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad. 'As an agency tasked with implementing and enforcing U.S.
economic sanctions, we're clear-eyed about the fact that Iran remains a
state sponsor of terrorism and continues to engage in other destabilizing
activities,' Smith told the hearing. 'We believe it is crucial to
implement and enforce the sanctions that remain in place,' he added. Some
lawmakers suggested that Washington should take a tougher line against
Tehran. 'The U.S. no longer seems to care as much about Iran's human
rights atrocities and its support for terrorism worldwide because the
administration seems solely fixed on giving Iran a good report card on
complying with the nuclear deal,' said U.S. Representative lleana
Ros-Lehtinen (Republican-Florida). 'We seem to be, in many instances,
talking tough about Iran,' said Representative Eliot Engel of New York,
the top Democrat on the committee, who has been among opponents of the
deal. 'In reality our actions are far away from our rhetoric, and that's
a worrisome thing. We want to make sure that Iran's feet are held to the
fire.'" http://t.uani.com/1WhJQgM
Sanctions
Enforcement
Al-Monitor: "The Obama administration is
warning European countries and companies to shut out a sanctioned Iranian
airline or risk US retaliation, Treasury officials told Al-Monitor. US
officials have long said that they retain the ability to sanction
entities that do business with Mahan Air because of its alleged ties to
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Those past remarks,
however, have mostly focused on the sale of aircraft and parts as well as
banking services, not on behind-the-scenes efforts to derail the
airline's plans to further expand its flights to Europe and elsewhere
around the globe. 'Treasury is engaging closely with stakeholders around
the world, including our partners in Europe, regarding our sanctions
targeting Iran,' a Treasury official told Al-Monitor. 'Regarding Mahan
Air specifically, we are doing this by working with our partners to
prevent Mahan Air from acquiring aircraft and aircraft parts and
software, preventing the opening of new routes and working to get
existing routes canceled.' The Treasury official made clear that despite
the Iran deal, US sanctions officials 'retain sanctions on Mahan Air for
its support to terrorism and will continue to use this authority to
target the airline.' The deal, the official said, 'does not preclude us
from designating any entities that support Mahan Air or facilitate its
activities.' ... During a contentious hearing on the Iran deal's
implementation the morning of Feb. 11, House Foreign Affairs Chairman Ed
Royce, R-Calif., ripped into the administration for lifting international
arrest warrants on two Mahan Air executives. 'Instead of more actions to
ground these planes,' Royce said, 'the White House agreed to lift an
Interpol notice.' Later, Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., demanded to know
what the administration was doing to ground 'the airline of choice for
the [IRGC] and Quds Force to go into Syria and kill people.' John Smith,
the acting director of the Office of Foreign Assets Control, replied, 'A
number of agencies of the US government, including Treasury, State,
Commerce and others, have been actively engaged to try to prevent Mahan
Air from being able to fly.'" http://t.uani.com/1KfDnlG
Sanctions
Relief
Reuters: "Iran's cancellation of a
conference when it had been due to unveil investment contracts to
international oil firms signals that political feuding is disrupting
plans to revive its energy sector. Tehran blamed snags in obtaining
British visas for Iranian delegates to the long-delayed conference, which
had been scheduled to be held in London on Feb 22-24. However, foreign
oil executives say factionalised politics in Iran, where elections will
be held later this month, appeared to explain the delay as the country
seeks major investment following the lifting of international sanctions
last month... The conference had been postponed five times due to the
sanctions. However, this time domestic infighting over the structure of
the oil and gas investments contracts seems to have prevented any
announcement of the commercial terms. 'There are big internal clashes on
the new contracts,' said a senior foreign oil executive. 'The Iranians
did not present us with a final contract until now, nothing was finally
approved.' The Iran Petroleum Contracts (IPCs) covering about 52 projects
will have flexible terms that take into account oil price fluctuations
and investment risks, a senior Iranian oil official told Reuters in
November. BP, France's Total, Italy's Eni and Russia's Lukoil were among
135 firms that attended a Tehran conference in November to hear about the
IPCs. But executives expecting to see the model of the contract were
offered only data on the fields up for investment and some general
presentations about what the new deals might look like. 'It was clear
that this conference was only for a domestic audience. I do not think
they even approved the contracts yet,' said another foreign oil executive
who attended the November conference." http://t.uani.com/1QZJU3k
Reuters:
"Iran and Brazil are in talks about a possible Iranian investment in
troubled refinery projects controlled by Brazilian state-led oil company
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, a Brazilian government source told Reuters on
Thursday. Iran, which is boosting oil output after the end of sanctions
over its nuclear program, is interested in exporting oil to Brazil,
processing that crude at refineries in Brazil's northeastern region and
then selling it in the Brazilian market, the source said, adding that
talks are at an early stage. Talks though are far from any result, the
source added. 'For this subject to be considered embryonic it will still
need to evolve a lot,' said the source, who asked for anonymity because
the inter-government talks are private. Iran has shown interest in
investing in the construction of the Premium I and Premium II refineries
in Brazil's northeastern states of Maranhao and Ceara, the source said.
The refineries are designed to produce low-sulfur fuels." http://t.uani.com/1WhI532
Financial
Tribune (Iran): "Stocks
soared to record highs on Tuesday, on the busiest day for Iran's equity
market in history, as a surge in bullish bets pushed up both of Tehran's
equity markets. Optimism over the lifting of sanctions on Jan. 16,
following the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,
has triggered a huge appetite for shares. The ensuing rally has erased
half of the losses shareholders incurred during the preceding two-year
bear market. Iran's main stock market, Tehran Stock Exchange, capped
3.19% or 2,415 points and ended its fourth day of consecutive gains at
78,199.10 points. The equity market's main index, TEDPIX, is at its
highest since March 8, 2014. Since the lifting of sanctions, TSE has
surged 14,682.2 points or 23.1%. Trading volume on the equity market hit
an all-time high on Tuesday. Over 3.91 billion shares were traded. TSE's
previous record was 2.12 billion shares traded on 22 Dec. 2013." http://t.uani.com/1TWULhc
Human
Rights
ICHRI: "Afghan students are being
subjected to physical punishment and discrimination in Iranian schools,
according to media reports in Iran that the government has tried to
suppress. 'News about abused students in general, and Afghan students in
particular, only pop up in the media by accident because the monitoring
agencies and the Education Ministry try to suppress these incidents,'
Shirzad Abdollahi, an expert in Iranian educational affairs, told the
International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. Iran is host to one of
the largest refugee populations in the world, with 950,000 Afghans
registered in 2015, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for
Refugees (UNHCR). The mistreatment of Iranian children in schools,
whether it is bodily punishment or verbal abuse and humiliation, is
common in Iran, according to Abdollahi, but it is worse for Afghan
children because they have fewer protections. The educational system
tends to deal with these incidents without punishing abusive staff, and
they try to hide it from the press, he told the Campaign." http://t.uani.com/1QbzOJo
Journalism
is Not a Crime: "A
photograph published on an Iranian website on February 11 reveals the
absurdity of music censorship in Iran. Recently, families around Iran
were told they were in for a treat: Iran's state TV announced it would
broadcast a concert by popular Iranian singer Salar Aghili. But when it
came to the event, very little of the concert was actually visible.
Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) came to the conclusion that
parts of the concert did not quite live up to Islamic norms and standards
- so, in response, they blurred the musicians playing instruments on
stage. Iranian website Parsine published the image for its audience, in
case any of them missed the IRIB's latest act of censorship. Yet IRIB was
acting within its guidelines: Musical instruments have been banned on Iranian
state television for more than three decades. Some Shia Muslim clerics
say broadcasting music instruments is a haram act - an act forbidden by
Islamic law." http://t.uani.com/1o6n4NI
Reuters: "A new smartphone application
that helps Iranians dodge the Islamic Republic's 'morality police' is
proving popular with the young, tech-savvy population but has quickly
fallen foul of the authorities. The Gershad app allows users who spot
checkpoints set up by the morality police, who enforce Islamic dress and
behavior codes, to tag their location on a Google map with an icon of a
bearded man, enabling others to steer clear of them. The app was blocked
by the authorities soon after it was released for Android devices on
Monday but many Iranians bypass Internet restrictions by using a Virtual
Private Network. It is already trending on social media and has received
almost 800 reviews on the Google Play app store, nearly all of them
positive, although Google Play does not show how many times Gershad had
been downloaded. Gershad is seen by some as setting a precedent for
'digital protest' in Iran as elections loom and the country emerges from
years if isolation following the lifting of international sanctions
imposed over its nuclear program. 'Technology has created an amazing
opportunity to forge a cooperative solution to common social problems,'
Gershad's secretive creators said in an email exchange with Reuters...
'For years the morality police have been causing disturbances for Iranian
women,' the Gershad team said. 'Avoiding them in the streets, metro
stations and in shopping malls is challenging and tiresome.' Iranian
officials have not commented on Gershad but state broadcaster IRIB said
the app had been written about on social media and 'networks opposed to
the (Islamic) revolution.'" http://t.uani.com/1SlLwYh
Domestic
Politics
Asharq Al
Awsat: "Iranian
President Hassan Rouhani harshly criticized an influential party without
directly mentioning its name. The criticism stemmed from its deep
involvement in both corruption and trafficking in Iran. Rouhani stated that
a corrupt organization in his country is responsible for smuggling goods
inside, and obstructing the growth of Iran. 'We have to stand up to this
corruption', he said. The Iranian President panned the authoritative
bodies that are monitoring the corruption, however, are not doing
anything about it. Rouhani's underlying tone referred to the overlooking
judicial authorities. He stated that supervising federations are a
necessity, yet not to work above the law and slow down the country's
progress. Rouhani also expressed his government's intentions on fighting
corruption and bribery. In a sign made on the privatization of public
sectors, Rouhani said that his administration will fight economic
centralization and negative competition. All the declarations were made
on the sidelines of the event launching 138 constructional projects in
commemoration of the 37th year of the Iranian Revolution's triumph...
Rouhani's indictments concerning powerful organizations on economic
activities in Iran, are not a first. He had previously accused the Army
of the Guardians implicitly on their role in the Iranian economy, in
2014... On Feb. 5, Ahmad Tavakkoli, head of the economic committee in the
Iranian Parliament, revealed on the sidelines of the 'National Convention
for Transparency', that corruption is estimated to have inflicted a 34
billion dollar worth of damage on the Iranian economy." http://t.uani.com/1XnOBGB
Opinion
& Analysis
Reps.
Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) & Reid Ribble (R-Wis.) in The Hill: "When our country debated the
merits of the Iran Nuclear Deal this fall, public polling showed
Americans were split. Nobody wanted Iran to get nuclear weapons, but we
disagreed on how best to prevent them from building a bomb. We, too, had
different views on the Iran Nuclear Agreement, and even cast opposing
votes on the measure in Congress. Now that the deal is done, however,
there is no question that we will be better off if it is enforced. And
recent Iranian actions have made it evident that we need a clear-eyed,
bipartisan approach to holding Iran accountable. In the past several
months, Iran has reminded us that it remains an enemy of the United
States. In both October and November, Iran conducted two medium-range
ballistic missile tests, acting in clear violation of the United Nations
Security Council Resolution 1929, and threatening our allies in the
region. Iran supports the brutal Assad regime in Syria that has killed
hundreds of thousands of innocent Syrians and helped cause the worldwide
humanitarian refugee crisis we see today. Iran continues to threaten our
democratic ally Israel and fund international terrorist organizations.
And most recently, an Iranian-supported Shia militia captured three
American contractors in Baghdad. These examples remind us just how
dangerous the Iranian regime truly is, and we need to ratchet up the
pressure to prevent even worse behavior. We must remember that the Iran
Nuclear Deal is only that-a nuclear deal-and no more. It explicitly
allows the U.S. to do whatever we can to prevent Iran from causing
trouble in other ways. Iran's actions also remind us how critical it is
we prevent them from getting a nuclear weapon by ensuring that the
nuclear deal, now passed, is strictly enforced. Recently, we introduced a
bipartisan resolution, 'The Iran Deal Implementation and Accountability
Act.' The resolution maps out a three-part plan to ensure effective
implementation of the agreement, reaffirm our relationship with Israel,
and counter other destabilizing Iranian actions. First, our resolution
calls on the president, Congress, and international partners to ensure
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the State Department and
the Treasury Department have the tools necessary to make sure we are
inspecting and implementing the deal to the strictest, fullest extent
possible. Second, we call on the president to reaffirm our relationship
with Israel and support our closest ally in the region with the resources
it needs to defend itself against Iranian-backed terror. Finally, our
resolution calls on the president and the international community to
remain committed to countering Iran's harmful actions beyond the threat
of their nuclear program. We remain committed, as a Congress-Democrats
and Republicans-to preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. And we
must stand firmly against all the other ways they threaten us and our
allies. We have had our disagreements on how best to do so in the past,
but today we are proud to stand together with a plan to take us
forward." http://t.uani.com/1oxdUKL
Eli Lake
in Bloomberg:
"Since reaching the nuclear agreement that lifted economic sanctions
on Iran, President Barack Obama has pledged to continue to punish foreign
companies that do business with the regime's powerful Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps. In theory, this will chill European
investment in Iran because the IRGC, along with its front businesses,
controls major portions of Iran's economy in vital sectors such as oil,
construction and banking. But despite recent reports of billions of
dollars worth of new European investment in Iran, the U.S. Treasury
Department has seen no evidence that European companies are conducting
transactions with the IRGC. Many sanctions experts question whether this
is really possible. On Thursday, John Smith, the acting director of
Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, had a testy exchange before
the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. Asked repeatedly by
Representative Brad Sherman, a Democrat who opposed the Iran deal, which
European companies have been sanctioned for doing business with the
Revolutionary Guards, Smith couldn't name any. 'I have not seen evidence
of European actors continuing to do business with the IRGC,' he said.
Emanuele Ottolenghi, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of
Democracies and an expert on Iran sanctions, was skeptical. 'There is overwhelming
evidence that European businesses lining up to trade with Iran will be
transacting with the IRGC,' he said. Matthew Levitt, a former Treasury
official with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told me
Smith could be 'technically right,' but only if one doesn't count the
many front companies behind which the IRGC hides: 'There is no way that
major business investment is done in Iran without at some point touching
the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and their business enterprises.'
... Ottolenghi, however, said there is hard evidence that European
companies have already conducted significant transactions with at least
one company linked to the IRGC, Mahan Air... Ottolenghi pointed out that
several European companies have already begun providing ground services
for Mahan Air flights landing at European airports. These include the
Swedish firm Aviator and Airport Handling of Italy, which mentions Mahan
as a client on its website... Smith's testimony illuminates a paradox of
Obama's post-deal Iran policy. On the one hand, the agreement lifts a
number of sanctions on Iran's banks and companies, and even has language
encouraging investment in its economy. Iran's president, Hassan Rouhani,
emphasized this element of the deal last month when he visited London,
Paris and Rome and signed new investment deals worth billions of dollars.
Telling European companies they cannot provide ground services for Iran's
second-biggest airline would undermine the goal of reintegrating Iran
into the global economy. At the same time, top Obama officials have
repeatedly said existing sanctions against Iran for its human rights
abuses, development of ballistic missiles and support for terrorism will
be enforced. This is no small matter. Since agreeing in July to the nuclear
deal, Iran has stepped up its support for Syria's dictator, conducted
missile tests that violated a United Nations resolution, and waged a
crackdown against internal dissent at home. Earlier this month, Iran's
most powerful religious body disqualified hundreds of candidates aligned
with Rouhani, who is considered a moderate, from running in elections
later this month. The acting undersecretary of the Treasury for terrorism
and financial intelligence, Adam Szubin, has sent a warning out to banks
and businesses all over the world to be careful not to engage the
Revolutionary Guard Corps or its front companies. 'A foreign bank that
conducts or facilitates a significant financial transaction with Iran's
Mahan Air, the IRGC-controlled construction firm Khatam al-Anbiya, or
Bank Saderat, will risk losing its access to the U.S. financial system,
and this is not affected by the nuclear deal,' Szubin told Congress in
August. In December, Szubin said in a speech at the Atlantic Council:
'After implementation day, non-U.S. persons who knowingly facilitate
significant transactions with a designated Iran-linked entity or
individual risk losing access to the U.S. market.' Particularly now,
foreign businesses and banks are watching the Treasury closely to gauge
exactly how risky these transactions really are. If Smith's testimony
Thursday is any indication, then it seems doing business with the IRGC is
a pretty safe bet." http://t.uani.com/1LkZYrT
Hisham
Melhem in Cairo Review: "Obama's dogged pursuit of a nuclear deal with Iran,
driven by an understandable fascination with what improved relations with
Iran could bring and a desire to curb Iran's future development of
nuclear weapons, has been his single most consistent policy goal in the
Middle East. But the nuclear deal reached in 2015 notwithstanding,
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's fist will likely remain clenched
as long as he breathes. The outlook prior to the nuclear agreement looked
very bleak for the ayatollah and his men. The modest nuclear deal was
their ticket out of Iran's economic crisis and out of international
isolation. Tehran's leaders will not change their unsentimental ways or
their frozen view that the world around them is mostly unforgiving. The
president can send personal letters to the ayatollah, deferentially refer
to Iran as the 'Islamic Republic of Iran,' make the obligatory repeated
references to the greatness of Persian culture, and mark Persian and
Islamic holidays. But that will not lead to a 'new beginning' with Iran
as Obama hopes. One can make the argument that the nuclear deal, if
implemented fully, will delay Iran's inevitable march towards acquiring
and mastering the full enrichment cycle by ten or fifteen years, which is
not an insignificant achievement for the United States and its European
allies, which are very averse to the use of military force to end Iran's
nuclear program. But for an ancient land like Iran, which measures history
by millennia and centuries, a decade or two is not even a fleeting
moment. Most problematic in Obama's approach to Iran was his refusal to
pursue the nuclear negotiations within an overarching strategy that would
include the promotion of human rights, and actively checking and
deterring Iran's destructive regional ambitions, particularly its direct
military involvement and through Shiite Muslim proxies in the Syrian,
Iraqi, and Yemeni conflicts. Many analysts have written about how Iran
has benefited from America's blunders in Iraq, and Obama's handwringing
in Syria, to become the country with the most influence in Iraq, Syria,
Lebanon, and Yemen. Given Saudi Arabia's preoccupation with a seemingly
endless war in Yemen, Egypt's rapidly diminishing regional role at a time
when its armed forces are battling a nasty Islamist insurgency in Sinai,
and Turkey's obsession with checking Kurdish assertiveness, Iran's
ascendency in the Levant, Mesopotamia, and on the Arabian Peninsula is
the more worrisome. Obama's weak response to Iran's Green Movement in
2009 was a clear signal that human rights and good governance were not
among his top priorities in Iran. During the Cold War, the United States
used a combination of hard and soft power in its dealings with the Soviet
Union. Negotiating nuclear accords was pursued but not at the expense of
pressure for human rights. American presidents, Republicans and
Democrats, held summit meetings with Soviet leaders and signed the
Strategic Arms Limitations Talks (SALT) and Strategic Arms Reduction
Treaty (START) nuclear agreements while containing and even rolling back
Soviet adventurism and aggression in Asia, Africa, and Central America.
We all knew the names of prominent Soviet dissidents and human rights
activists and the particular struggle of each one of them. By contrast,
the Obama administration never made Iran's atrocious human rights record
and its rapacious activities in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen contentious issues
during the long nuclear talks. The recent encounter between the navies of
the two countries in the Gulf, when the Iranian navy captured ten
American sailors on two small boats after they mistakenly entered Iran's
territorial waters, showed a stunning reversal of roles; Iran acted like
a superpower, and the United States acted like a regional power. Iran
treated the sailors as 'hostiles' and humiliated them publicly by forcing
them to kneel with their hands behind their heads, then after feeding
them, getting them to thank Iranian 'hospitality.' The spectacle, which
lasted less than twenty-four hours, was captured on video, and the
Iranians were happy to see it played all over the world. Secretary of
State John Kerry, who seems to have a mystical belief in the power of
diplomacy, was effusive in expressing his 'gratitude' for the Iranian
government for the quick release of the sailors, stressing 'that this
issue was resolved peacefully and efficiently is a testament to the
critical role diplomacy plays in keeping our country safe, secure, and
strong.'" http://t.uani.com/1Rw6NNV
Matthew
Kroenig in The American Interest: "The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known
as the Iran nuclear deal, will likely be the most controversial foreign
policy issue of the 2016 general election campaign for President of the
United States. President Obama considers the deal to be among his
foremost foreign policy accomplishments and leading contenders for the
Democratic Party's nomination have publicly backed the deal. In stark
contrast, all the major Republican presidential candidates have opposed
the accord and several have vowed to scrap it if elected. Florida Senator
Marco Rubio, for example, has promised 'on my first day in office . . . I
am going to cancel this ridiculous deal [Obama] has struck with Iran.'
Texas Senator Ted Cruz has echoed this position stating, 'You better
believe it. If I am elected President, on the very first day in office I
will rip to shreds this catastrophic Iranian nuclear deal.' Many others,
including within the Republican Party, believe that this tough talk is
merely campaign rhetoric, and that it would be unrealistic to suggest
that this agreement, negotiated with our closest international partners
and consecrated in a United Nations Security Council Resolution, can be
easily or even ever undone. Moreover, now that the deal has formally gone
into effect, many believe either that the value of the agreement has
already been demonstrated, or at least that it is now too established to
overturn in the absence of undeniable demonstrations of Iranian bad
faith. On both points, however, they are mistaken. The Iran nuclear deal
undermines many of America's most important national security objectives
and will not stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The next President
of the United States, therefore, should work to unwind it. But he or she
must do so carefully, with a clear sense of the desired end state and a
realistic plan to achieve it. By following the strategy outlined below,
the next U.S. President can responsibly unwind the Iran deal and work
toward a better agreement, one that prevents, not merely delays, Iran
from building the bomb. And even if a better agreement proves
unattainable, on balance U.S. interests are better served by the absence
of an agreement than by the continuation of the one we have... In sum,
while reasonable people disagree on the value of the Iran deal, there is
a case to be made that it weakens, rather than strengthens, U.S. and global
security. Most importantly, several people who might be sworn in as
President next January find the argument persuasive. What, then, is the
alternative to the present deal? ... It is highly unlikely that Tehran
would quickly agree to these renegotiated terms. If it is unwilling to do
so, the United States must work to return international pressure against
Iran. Time and time again-from its agreement to a ceasefire in the
Iran-Iraq war in 1988, to its suspension of enrichment following the U.S.
invasion of Iraq (due to fears that it might be next), to its acceptance
of restrictions on its nuclear program in the face of tough international
sanctions-we have seen that Iran only responds to pressure. Over the past
decade, the U.S. government has orchestrated against Iran the most
intensive international sanctions regime in history. This economic
pressure brought Iran to the negotiating table, but we erred by letting
up too soon. To compel Iran to make the concessions necessary for a good
deal, Washington must work to re-impose crippling international
sanctions. To be sure, this will be much more difficult now that the deal
has already gone into effect, but, if it is a foremost foreign policy
priority of the next President, it can be done. Indeed, the process actually
began several months ago when the Republican candidates announced their
intention to tear up the Iran deal. As a result, many international
business interests are reluctant to make major investments in Iran,
knowing that, depending on the outcome of the American presidential
election, there is a good chance that international sanctions against
Iran may return in a few short months. As Rubio said, 'this should have a
chilling effect for any business thinking about investing in Iran. . . .
This deal will not outlive this Administration, and international
businesses that move into Iran in the coming months need to know they
will lose everything.' Republican candidates should reinforce this
message. By making it clear that Obama's deal with Iran may last no
longer than 12 months, they can deter the international business
community from rushing into Iran. Next, on day one of his or her term,
the new President can reinstate by executive order any sanctions that
were suspended by the Obama Administration. He or she can also put an
immediate halt to the unfreezing of any still-frozen Iranian assets.
Finally, he or she can cease the use of executive waiver authority in
order to effectively re-instate past Congressional sanctions on Iran. The
next and most difficult step will be working with allies and partners to
reinstate international and multilateral sanctions against Iran. Critics
of this approach have argued that the rest of the world will not support
continued sanctions against Iran, but this is incorrect. It takes the
United States, a global superpower, to lead on issues of nuclear
nonproliferation... Now, some international business interests are eager
to rush back into Iran, but only because the White House has in effect
announced that Iran is once again open for business. To be sure, it will
require substantial political capital, but if a new President were to
reverse course and present a new plan to permanently resolve the Iranian
nuclear crisis through sanctions, the world's other key governments will again
reluctantly follow. In part, they will do so for the same reason they
signed on in the first place: America's so-called secondary sanctions
threaten to penalize foreign firms that do business in Iran. In my
travels to many foreign capitals in Europe and Asia in the past year, I
have been told repeatedly that if the U.S. government were to demand new
sanctions on Iran, these governments would again grudgingly comply. U.S.
sanctions force them to choose between doing business with Iran and doing
business with the United States, and that is really no choice at all... A
return to the pressure track will remind the international community that
Iran's enrichment program is in fact still a problem, and re-enlist its
help in actively working toward eliminating that program. Over time,
therefore, Iran's leaders will grow increasingly inclined to accept the
new deal Washington is prepared to offer. As the economic pressure builds
again, Iran's leaders will return to the negotiating table looking for
relief. And they will know that in order to receive it, they must take
one simple step: dismantle their sensitive nuclear infrastructure. Only
when this is accomplished will the international community have achieved
its longstanding goal of preventing, not merely delaying, Iran's
acquisition of nuclear weapons." http://t.uani.com/1oxeBnc
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear
Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
United Against Nuclear
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commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a
regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons. UANI is an
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