Eye on Iran: Revolutionary Guards Intelligence Chief: "America is on the Brink of Collapse"

Join UANI                    Top Stories IranWire: "The United States is heading toward dramatic collapse, according to Hasan Taeb, the head of the Revolutionary Guards' Intelligence Unit. Taeb said on January 27 that the United States' only chance of survival was Iran, which he described as the major power in the Middle East. If President Obama's administration failed to follow Iran's lead, his country was destined for failure - in the Middle East, but also closer to home. He said the US was heading for a break-up not seen since the fall of the Soviet Union, echoing previous comments by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. General Yaghoub Alinazari, commander of the paramilitary Basij Forces in Razavi Khorasan province, shared this view, declaring earlier in the month that the United States was heading for disaster. Although Taeb predicted America's downfall only days ago, the belief that the US is heading for self-destruction has been a popular refrain for Iran's hardliners for years. It even formed a part of 2009 presidential election debates between former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and opposition figures... Often the trend of talking about an impending American collapse is expressed in language usually reserved for end-of-times soothsaying about the arrival of the Shia Messiah, the Twelfth Imam. Often the trend of talking about an impending American collapse is expressed in language usually reserved for end-of-times soothsaying about the arrival of the Shia Messiah, the Twelfth Imam... the brand of prophesizing so popular with the supreme leader and the Revolutionary Guards Intelligence chief still commands influence in Iranian political life." http://t.uani.com/1Kq0pWH Reuters: "The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly approved legislation on Tuesday that would restrict President Barack Obama's ability to lift sanctions under the international nuclear deal with Iran, nearly three weeks after a similar vote was canceled. House members voted 246-181 to pass the 'Iran Terror Finance Transparency Act,' almost entirely along party lines, with almost every 'yes' vote coming from Republicans and Democrats overwhelmingly opposed to it. The legislation is not expected to become law, even though Republicans control both the House and Senate. Even if it were passed by the Senate, Obama has promised a veto, saying the measure would kill the landmark nuclear agreement. The House narrowly passed the legislation last month, but the vote was voided after nearly a third of the chamber showed up too late to cast their votes. The voided vote took place on Jan. 13." http://t.uani.com/1QcwzSm AFP: "Western companies have been rushing into Iran for a part of post-sanctions business action but European banks, still reeling from punitive US fines over links to the country, are waiting on the sidelines until they feel it is safe to do business with Tehran. 'Sanctions have been lifted but really things are still not very clear,' a source at a major French bank told AFP on condition of anonymity. US and French interpretations on the current state of play are 'not aligned', the source said. 'We shall not be taking any new initiative in this domain.' ... When it comes to what oils the wheels, high finance, there is hesitation, at least on the part of European banks. 'The hefty fines levied on these financial institutions during the sanctions has made them particularly wary,' Farhad Alavi, a lawyer specialising in trade issues including sanctions, told AFP from Washington. 'European banks are not only confronted with potential sanctions risks, but also other exposure points under international banking regulations and practices,' Alavi added. Prudence is the watchword for bankers who have had their fingers burned before in the shape of swingeing fines handed down by US regulators. The Elysee Palace says France has agreed deals worth upwards of $15 billion with the Islamic Republic. Yet the nitty gritty of how the investments will be drawn up and financed requires hands-on banking. In the past, some banks were too pro-active towards Tehran and saw Washington extract a heavy price for violating the old sanctions regime. The most spectacular example, which is still on every banker's mind, was a record $8.9 billion fine imposed on BNP Paribas in 2014. The issue is also taxing banking minds elsewhere in Europe, including Germany. 'Deutsche Bank has noted the easing of American and European sanctions against Iran,' said a spokesman for the German giant which last November took a $258 million fine for doing business with US-sanctioned entities including Iran and Syria. 'Until further notice the group will stick to its decision and not undertake Iran-linked business,' the Deutsche spokesman insisted." http://t.uani.com/1o6cSVP U.S.-Iran Relations FT: "It is not just the world of oil which is bracing itself for the impact of Iran's return to the market after the recent lifting of US sanctions. International pistachio traders are watching and wondering how Washington's move will impact export flows from the Middle East nation, and whether it will have a crack at the hitherto closed US market. The US and Iran, which account for 70-80 per cent of the world's production, have been vying for the top producer and exporter spot for the past few years as demand - along with other treenuts - has risen thanks to the growing trend for healthier eating around the world. Chuck Nichols, president of Nichols Farms in California, which grows, processes and ships pistachios, says the Iran issue has been on the US growers' minds. 'People have been thinking about this,' he says... The big question is whether Iranians can make inroads into the US. Even before US sanctions were implemented, Iranian pistachio imports were subject to anti-dumping duties of about 300 per cent. With the sanctions removed, a review is to be conducted by the US trade authorities on whether to retain the tariff. 'Our industry will vigorously defend our position' to retain the duties, says Mr Nichols." http://t.uani.com/1S0oVQX Congressional Action The Hill: "An early push in the Senate to pass new sanctions targeting Iran's ballistic missile program is threatening to divide Democrats.  While lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are still hashing out the specifics, the issue is already splitting Democrats into two camps: Lawmakers who believe recent sanctions from President Obama go far enough and those who think Congress needs to further crackdown on Iran. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) defended the administration's recent actions on Tuesday, calling the sanctions against 11 individuals tied to Iran's missile program 'sufficient.' 'I think we should hold over Iran's head the prospect of additional sanctions should they continue to test but I'm supportive of the steps the administration took,' he said, dismissing the need for Congress to take additional action. But Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who had pushed for the administration to crackdown on Iran, said he's 'not sure there's a need for more [sanctions.]' Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who both opposed the nuclear deal, suggested that new sanctions against the missile program could get Democratic support. 'It's something I'm very interested in. That was one of the reasons I could not support the original deal,' Manchin told The Hill. 'On the Democratic side, I think it will be very well received.' Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) also said Tuesday that he's working on new sanctions legislation unrelated to Iran's nuclear program. He introduced legislation last year with Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) to extend the Iran Sanctions Act, which expires at the end of the year. Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, said Tuesday that he's working on a package of Iran-related bills that would go further than the administration's. 'We're still hashing out the framework of what it would look like right now,' he said." http://t.uani.com/20q8sKG The Hill: "Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) wants the Obama administration to provide details on more than $1 billion given to Iran, suggesting the money amounts to a 'ransom payment.' Blunt, the Republican conference vice chair, on Tuesday sent a letter to Secretary of State John Kerry and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew raising concerns about the timing of the payment, which came as American hostages were released from Iran. 'It is troubling enough that this administration appears to have acquiesced to a ransom demand to secure the release of three American hostages,' Blunt wrote. 'It would be absolutely appalling for the administration to obligate U.S. taxpayers to pay that ransom to a regime that has supported deadly terror attacks against our citizens.' The letter to Kerry and Lew comes after the administration gave Iran $1.7 billion, which it said was to a settle a decades-old financial dispute dating back to the 1979 Islamic Resolution. Blunt said the timing of the payment raises 'serious questions' and asked whether the settlement agreement was reached 'for the express purpose of gaining the release of the three American hostages.' The Missouri Republican, who is up for reelection in November, also wants to know whether the money came from the Defense Department's foreign military sales acccount or if taxpayer funding was used to help pay the $1.7 billion settlement." http://t.uani.com/1mdgfbG Sanctions Relief Reuters: "Iran has no problem with U.S. companies investing in its economy and creating joint ventures, President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday, and he called for foreign investment and diversification away from oil. The president said the lifting of sanctions last month under a nuclear deal with world powers would see foreign investment turn Iran into an exporter of manufactured goods and ease the economy's reliance on oil exports... 'If U.S. companies are willing to come and invest in Iran, to bring manufacturing to Iran, we have no problem with that,' Rouhani said in a wide-ranging interview aired live on state TV. He said Iran's economy would change dramatically, away from importing goods paid for by oil sales and toward developing industry through joint ventures with foreign firms, with a view to exporting manufactured goods including cars... Nevertheless, Rouhani acknowledged that reforms would be needed in order for his desired economic transformation to succeed. Citing clerical Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who outranks him, he said most of Iran's problems were internal and not caused by sanctions. 'The leader said sanctions caused 40 percent of the country's problems: 60 percent of our problems are not related to sanctions, they are related to our own internal problems.'" http://t.uani.com/1S0lYj9 Globe & Mail: "Corporate Canada is poised to capitalize on Ottawa's planned lifting of sanctions against Iran, with oil and gas companies and aerospace firms in particular looking to the Middle East nation to help offset the deep challenges hitting their industries. Though most Canadian corporations remain hesitant to talk publicly about Iranian opportunities as long as sanctions remain legally in place, lawyers specializing in international trade and investment say their phone lines have been busy with business people seeking advice about the country. 'Interest is very high,' said John Boscariol, a trade specialist with McCarthy Tétrault in Toronto, whose clients include companies involved in oil field services and extraction technology... Petroleum Services Association of Canada president Mark Salkeld said his members are showing increasing interest in Iran and that the association 'has met with a couple of delegations from Iran in preparation for this outcome.' He declined to say which companies are involved. Foreign Affairs Minister Stéphane Dion said earlier this week that Canada will act 'in a speedy fashion' to remove economic sanctions against Iran and normalize relations... Jaylor Fabricating Inc., a Garafraxa, Ont.-based manufacturer of feed mixers for dairy and beef farmers, is among the companies anxious to get back into Iran after exiting the country under measures enacted by the previous Conservative government in 2012. The company was the No. 1 seller of vertical feed mixers in Iran before it was forced to abandon the business, founder and chief executive Jake Tamminga said... Montreal-based Bombardier Inc., struggling to win new aircraft orders under a $9-billion (U.S.) debt, is also eyeing a piece of the country's new-found appetite for airplane fleet renewal. It had been unable to market its aircraft in Iran because of sanctions until earlier this month but has since held exploratory talks with potential customers 'in the region' as some U.S. rules on passenger aircraft vis-à-vis Iran were relaxed, spokeswoman Marianella de la Barrera said... Bombardier isn't the only company enthused about Iran and its $400-billion economy. 'Iran has said they would be buying commercial aircraft from different manufacturers,' said Pascale Alpha, of aircraft-simulation company CAE Inc. 'That means they will need to train those pilots, so we see opportunities when the sanctions will be lifted.' ... Engineering and construction firm SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. has worked in Iran in the past on humanitarian projects funded by international financial institutions, said spokesman Louis-Antoine Paquin." http://t.uani.com/1md7ZZk Reuters: "The lifting of sanctions against Iran may be a mixed blessing for Turkey, opening up access to a fast-growing, lucrative market, but one that could someday rival Ankara as both an investment destination and exporter... 'It is an economy with great potential,' said businessman Alper Kanca, whose company, Kanca Dovme Celik, produced engine parts for Iranian auto makers for 20 years prior to the sanctions. 'There is extraordinary support from the Iranian government to expand domestic industry.' ... In the short-term, Turkey's auto industry, which accounted for $22 billion in exports last year, could be a beneficiary, thanks to its advanced manufacturing techniques. 'After working closely with European producers for years, Turkish auto parts producers have an upper hand,' said Mehmet Dudaroglu, the chairman of the Turkish auto parts manufacturing association (TAYSAD)... The International Monetary Fund expects Iran's economy to expand 4.3 percent this year, with growth at or above 4 percent in the next two years. It also sees Iran's imports expanding 18 percent this year, 14 percent next year and 7 percent the year after. 'Turkey will be one of the countries that benefits the most' from the opening of Iran, Economy Minister Mustafa Elitas told Reuters in an interview in Chile on Monday, while on a visit to Latin America. Turkey's trade with Iran reached $22 billion in 2012, he said, before dropping off sharply in subsequent years as tighter sanctions hit. Ankara aims to reach $30 billion in trade with Iran by 2023, he said." http://t.uani.com/1SGn82e Reuters: "State-run company KIOCL is considering building an iron ore pellet complex in Iran at a cost of about $59 million and is in talks to sell more than 2 million tonnes of the steelmaking raw material to the Gulf country now free from trade sanctions. The potential Indian investment could offer cheaper supplies of processed iron ore to Iranian steel mills that, like most companies around the world, are having to contend with cut-price steel from an oversupplied China. Companies such as KIOCL and aluminium maker NALCO, which is considering setting up a $2 billion smelter complex in Iran, hope that India's long-held ties with the Middle Eastern country would help them seal new deals... KIOCL Chairman Malay Chatterjee told Reuters on Wednesday that he discussed setting up a 1.1 million tonne beneficiation plant -- for ore purification -- and a 1.1 million tonne pelletising plant in Iran through a potential joint venture with a local company when he was there in Tehran late last year. Further government-level talks could take place soon to pave the way for the project, which could cost abut 4 billion rupees ($59 million), he said. KIOCL's commercial director, M.V. Subba Rao, flew to Tehran on Tuesday and to scout for more deals after selling 67,000 tonnes of ore pellets to Iran's Mobarakeh Steel Company last month. 'Rao will talk to Mobarakeh and other companies as we have the capacity to export up to 2.5 million tonnes of pellets a year,' Chatterjee said... Mobarakeh's managing director, Bahram Sobhani, said his company sources pellets from a variety of suppliers, including KIOCL, but declined to give details." http://t.uani.com/1PzL1HS Bloomberg: "British Airways said it will resume flights to Tehran on July 14 following last month's international deal lifting sanctions imposed over Iran's nuclear program. The unit of IAG SA will initially serve the Middle Eastern country six times weekly from London Heathrow using Boeing Co. 777 jets in a four-class layout, before moving to a daily service next winter, it said Wednesday in a statement. 'Iran is a large and growing economy and Tehran is a brilliant business city so we are incredibly excited to be adding another gateway to the Middle East,' Neil Cottrell, BA's network planning chief, said in the release." http://t.uani.com/1SGsCtU Reuters: "Russian government authorities have ordered financing of economic projects in Iran, including the construction of a nuclear plant, RIA news agency cited Kremlin's top adviser Yuri Ushakov as saying on Wednesday. Ushakov met with Ali Akbar Velayati, a top advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is visiting Russia." http://t.uani.com/1S0iugC TASS (Russia): "Russian truck maker Kamaz is ready to resume truck assembling in Iran. The assembly line of Kamaz worked in Iran from 2007 to 2010, Chief Executive of Kamaz Foreign Trade Company Rafail Gafeev told TASS on Wednesday. 'We initiated the entry on the Iranian market in 2002 and made first supplies of complete trucks at 2005 year-end. We opened an assembly line with our partner in 2007 and delivered only knocked-down kits from 2007 to 2010. The same scenario will be implemented now - certification at first, followed by delivery of complete trucks and arrangement of assembly,' Gafeev said. No Kamaz trucks have been sold in Iran after 2010... Over 2,000 Kamaz trucks were sold on the Iranian market before 2010. 'Kamaz brand is well known since then at least in provinces close to the East Azerbaijan, where the assembly facility operated,' Gafeev added. Kamaz is a leading manufacturer of heavy trucks in Russia." http://t.uani.com/1SGoc62 TASS (Russia): "Russia's Uralvagonzavod company is ready to organize in Iran licensed production of the T-90S gun launcher-armed tanks if restrictions on military-technical cooperation with that country are lifted, the corporation's deputy director general Alexey Zharich said on Wednesday... On Tuesday, Commander of the Iranian Ground Forces Ahmad Reza Pourdastan said the country preferred not to purchase Russia's T-90 tanks, but to establish their production in the country." http://t.uani.com/1Ph81ro Human Rights IranWire: "Security forces arrested seven fashion models in late January, according to unconfirmed reports on social media. Six of the seven arrested were women, and all had posted photographs of themselves not wearing hijab on their Instagram pages. On February 2, there were reports that more models had been arrested, though these arrests are also unconfirmed. The models have been named as Melikaa Zamani, Niloofar Behboudi, Donya Moghadam, Dana Nik, Shabnam Molavi, Elnaz Golrokh and Hamid Fadaei. Authorities and family members of the models have not confirmed or denied the arrests, which were thought to have taken place about a week ago. Two of the models, married couple Elnaz Golrokh and Hamid Fadaei, were allegedly released a few days ago and fled the country on January 30. All seven have been very active on social media, including Instagram. Although the arrests could be linked directly to the photographs they posted, there has also been speculation that their sheer popularity online has angered authorities." http://t.uani.com/1mddLu3 ICHRI: "Three months after their arrests, journalists Issa Saharkhiz and Ehsan Mazandarani have been formally charged with 'acting against national security' and 'propaganda against the state,' their lawyer told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. Mahmoud Alizadeh Tabatabaee added that it was not yet clear which branch of the Revolutionary Court system would take on the cases now that the dispute over leveling lesser or harsher charges was resolved by a judge. 'The case investigator was of the opinion that the charges against them all fell under propaganda activities against the state, but the prosecutor believed there were several crimes involved,' said Tabatabaee. 'Finally, Judge Salavati of Branch 15 of the Revolutionary Court ruled between them and sided with the prosecutor's harsher charges.' Judge Salavati is known for the harsh sentences he issues against journalists, lawyers, political activists, and members of Iran's ethnic and religious minorities. As such he is often handpicked by the Judiciary to preside over politically motivated cases. Saharkhiz and Mazandarani have been in detention since their arrest on November 1, 2015." http://t.uani.com/1SGkvgX ICHRI: "Twenty-four Baha'is from northeastern Iran have been handed down sentences that range from six to eleven years 'simply for being Baha'is,' according to Simin Fahandej, the faith's spokesperson at the United Nations in New York. The Baha'i community is one of the most severely persecuted religious minorities in Iran. The faith is not recognized in the Islamic Republic's constitution and its members face severe discrimination in all walks of life and prosecution for the public display of their faith. 'We don't know if they were put on trial together or individually, but based on the written verdict we received on January 27, they have each received prison sentences ranging from six to 11 years in prison,' Fahandej told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. They were charged with 'propaganda in favor of the Baha'i faith and against the Islamic Republic by being members of an illegal organization,' added Fahandej, 'implementing [proselytizing] projects in Golestan Province' and 'collaborating with enemy states by actively promoting sectarian, anti-Islamic and anti-Shia objectives.' 'You really cannot accuse people of propaganda and hand down long prison terms just because a few Baha'i and non-Baha'i families gathered together to talk about religion,' said Fahandej... The most recent mass sentencing appears to represent a rare occasion where a judge has penned a verdict directly tying the individuals' religious beliefs to his verdicts. The 24 Baha'is were arrested in the cities of Gorgan, Gonbad, and Minoodasht in northern Golestan Province... More than 80 Baha'is are currently held in Iranian prisons, according to Fahandej... 'Unfortunately, since Mr. Rouhani came to power some two years ago, many Baha'is have been arrested, many Baha'i cemeteries have been destroyed and Baha'i youths with top grades have been denied entry into the universities only because of their faith,' she said." http://t.uani.com/1o636D2 Opinion & Analysis UANI Outreach Coordinator Bob Feferman in Times of Israel: "With the lifting of economic sanctions under the terms of the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), hundreds of major multinational companies will be returning to Iran. In spite of the smiles of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the important question is this: Is Iran a country you really want to be doing business with? Since 2011, Iran has been up to its neck supporting the brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. A 2015 memorandum of the Congressional Research Service reported that since the outbreak of the popular uprising turned sectarian bloodbath, the Iranian regime has provided more than six billion dollars a year in financial support to the Assad regime. In addition, Iran has given massive direct military assistance in the form of an endless supply of ammunition, weapons and thousands of soldiers of its own Revolutionary Guard Corps together with fighters from its loyal proxy, Hezbollah. As a result, the Syrian Civil War has created more than four million external refugees; almost seven million internally displaced, and cost the lives of more than 250,000 Syrians. It is important to remember how so many died. The Syrian regime has targeted its own citizens with poison gas, dropped barrel bombs on civilian market places, used starvation as a military tactic, and conducted torture on an industrial scale. This makes the government of Iran complicit in aiding and abetting the Syrian regime in committing crimes against humanity. The CEOs and shareholders of the companies returning to Iran should be asking: Is this a country we want to be doing business with? And that's not all. Iran continues to have an abysmal human rights record. It routinely uses torture in its prisons on journalists and human rights activists and has imprisoned over 120 members of the persecuted Baha'i faith simply for their religious beliefs. Then there is the issue of Holocaust Denial. On January 27, the world commemorated International Holocaust Remembrance Day. On the same day, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei posted yet another Holocaust denial video on his website. While Iranian leaders continue to deny the Holocaust, the regime actively supports terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah that work to commit another Holocaust. Last April, Con Coughlin, a respected British journalist for The Daily Telegraph, reported, 'Iran has sent Hamas's military wing tens of millions of dollars to help it rebuild the network of tunnels in Gaza destroyed by Israel's invasion last summer, intelligence sources have told The Sunday Telegraph. It is also funding new missile supplies to replenish stocks used to bombard residential neighbourhoods in Israel...' As we begin the implementation of the JCPOA, the Iranian regime is continuing to support Bashar al-Assad, sponsor terrorism, abuse the human rights of its own citizens and deny the Holocaust. For all of these reasons, the prohibitions on business with Iran for most U.S. companies will remain in place. Not so for other countries, especially the European Union which claims to prioritize the issue of human rights... Doing business with Iran sends the message that there is an economic reward for defying all norms of international behavior and causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands and the suffering of millions... It will be up to us to tell the companies that are rushing to return to Iran that this brutal regime is not a place you want to do business with." http://t.uani.com/1PS2d7g David Gardner in FT: "For a theocracy, Iran has a remarkable number of elections. But the theocrats are taking no chances. Now that the nuclear deal Tehran reached with the US and international powers has started to open up Iran's economy and smooth the rougher edges of its abrasive relations with much of the world, its rulers would appear to believe, with Alexis de Tocqueville, the great 19th-century liberal thinker, that 'the most dangerous moment for a bad government is when it begins to reform'. Thus the phalanx of unflinching jurists in the regime's Guardian Council has crashed through the ranks of reformist candidates in elections this month to the 290-seat majlis, or parliament, and 88-member Assembly of Experts. The Guardian Council, an appointed body that vets candidates and can veto laws - including episodic attempts by the majlis to curb its arbitrary powers - has let through only 30 of roughly 3,000 reformist hopefuls, many of them partisans of Hassan Rouhani, the moderate president. As Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, explained last month: 'If the agents of penetration somehow manage to enter [the] foundations of the Islamic Republic, they will weaken the bases of the system and will eat them from the inside like termites.' In power since the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979, Iran's rulers are best seen not so much as convinced theocrats but as a post-revolutionary elite of vested interests using religion as their standard. The institutions of theocracy, such as the Guardian Council or the Assembly of Experts that selects the supreme leader, guarantee their own hegemony over the republican institutions, such as the elected majlis. In that sense they are like Chinese Communist party plutocrats, whose interest is not socialism but power and control. And having seen what happened to the Soviet Union after Mikhail Gorbachev added the political opening of glasnost to the economic restructuring of perestroika, they have a clear preference for the Chinese model: open up the economy but not the politics. The Guardian Council will this week publish a final list of approved runners in the February 26 elections, and probably reinstate some barred candidates - including perhaps Hassan Khomeini, grandson of Imam Khomeini and thus revolutionary aristocracy. Its intent will be not so much to relent as to underscore the magnanimity of the theocracy. Yet not all regime enforcers are so confident. They know from experience that Iran's republican institutions and contested elections have a life of their own. In 1997, with the landslide election of Mohammad Khatami, the reformist president; in 2009, when they had to repress mass protests against the rigged re-election of populist president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad; and now, they fear, with the popularity of Mr Rouhani - voters keep on springing surprises. Moreover, this is a youthful society with a socio-economic profile similar to those of the countries upended by the turmoil of the so-called Arab spring that has sucked Iran further into proxy warfare across the region. A European diplomat in the thick of last year's negotiations with Iran on the nuclear deal said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, comprising the regime's praetorians, was fearful of the consequences of success; 'that kind of change is, over time, regime-changing'. They may be right. Can they keep the lid on?... Yet the Islamic Republic has shown it is not an impregnable fortress immune to change. Its guardians' and enforcers' attempts to stamp out the reformist impulse at home is not enough either. Iran is not just reintegrating with the world economy. As a result of its expansive influence in neighbouring Arab countries, particularly after the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 that catapulted the majority Shia into power and the current civil war in Syria, where it is propping up a minority regime against a Sunni majority, it has forged a Shia axis - but with long lines to defend. In Iraq, for instance, it is already manoeuvring to prepare a more Tehran-friendly clerical leadership ahead of the succession to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, now 85 and arguably the foremost religious authority in the Shia world, who is hostile to the Khomeinist concept of clerical rule and opposed to IRGC-backed militia in his country. The eruption of the jihadist caliphate in Iraq and Syria is not just a threat to Iran's borders. This weekend's Isis bombings at the Shia shrine near Damascus of Sayyida Zeinab - daughter of the first Shia Imam Ali and granddaughter of the Prophet Mohammed - looks like an attempt to replicate the al-Qaeda bombing of a Shia shrine at Samarra 10 years ago this month, which unleashed apocalyptic sectarian carnage. Iran guardians have more than elections to ponder." http://t.uani.com/1R2f5wT         Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.